Hurricane Sandy and Amtrak.

[jis]

I watched the press conference, and it was commonsense advice aimed at an audience that sometimes lacks commonsense. I have a good nose for BS, and there was none.

Actually I completely misunderstood Olympian's message and responded based on the misunderstanding. I apologize for the uncalled for criticism which was misdirected in the first place. So I redacted my message. So now the only record of that is in your message

However, more seriously, there is very good reason to not talk abuout outlandish edge case speculative scnearios, since it does no enhance the public's confidence in those making such predictions which mostly don't come to pass. Indeed there was quite a bit of skepticism this time around because Irene worked out to be an under-performer compared to its billing in NY city. That was part of the reason that the Mayor delayed announcement of the evacuation of Zone A this time, because he faced criticism last time of being too quick on the trigger, of course driving the serious forecasters batty this time in the pricess.

 

[jis]

Try booking anything along the NEC for Tuesday. Everything is blocked as Sold Out. LDTs south of WAS are also blocked out, save 19. 79 only open for bookings RGH-CLT. Looks like Tuesday's situation may mirror Monday's.

The default appears to be indeed to keep everything suspended on Tuesday too. I guess if things really improve more than expected it is easier to start running something than saying that you will run stuff and then having to stop running. There would probably be some significant issues of positioning equipment and crew, specially getting crews to needed locations while roads are not cleared of debris etc. too. This was a huge problem after Irene and the October snowstorm last year.

 

[Ryan]

The MTA just posted some great pictures of the shutdown at Grand Central.

This one is my favorite:



033 by MTAPhotos, on Flickr

 

[amamba]

Are you guys seeing that local businesses and schools are announcing they will be closed while all this is going on? Wonder what essential services employees do about getting to work, hospitals, etc.

They have closed the public schools in my town for tomorrow. And we are not even that close to the storm. (Rhode Island) I know we will be affected but we aren't looking at the same kind of danger as folks farther south.

Just because the center of the storm is not coming directly to Rhode Island, you are going to get hammered with hurricane force winds and storm surge. Please don't take this storm lightly.

They are predicting sustained winds of 35 mph and gusts of up to 60 mph. That is NOT hurricane force winds. That would be tropical storm force winds. Plus there is a hurricane barrier in Providence and I live on a giant hill.

I am not taking it lightly, but there is a distinction. I think its completely appropriate to say that I will not be receiving as big of a hint as those in other area.

 

[OlympianHiawatha]

The worst case scenarios come from some friends who work at the National Weather Service which is just a few blocks from my house.

You live in Silver Spring, MD!?! Where? Until a few years ago I lived a few blocks from NOAA's (NWS is under NOAA) headquarters in Silver Spring, so I know the area quite well.

His location says Norman, OK, which is the home of NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

That is correct and they opened a beautiful new state of the art research facility a few years ago. Between that and parts of the original facility on North Base plenty of interesting research is going on, much of it conducted by Graduate and even Undergraduate students at the University of Oklahoma. One of my friends there was part of the team that developed the software that enables folks to be able to view various radar feeds on Windows and Mac computers. Needless to say these folks love their computers and the models they create with them.

 

[jebr]

I find the "unintended consequences" quite interesting. Due to the shutdown, there's no service anywhere on the CL or LSL. I would think the LSL could operate to Albany...the Maple Leaf is doing so. Also, it would seem as though the CL could operate out to Pittsburgh without too much worry. Right now there's no train service from CHI to PGH, ALB, or even CLE. (Pardon me if my abbreviations are wrong.)

Of course, these things happen when the only service to many cities is LD trains.

 

[Blackwolf]

This is about a 10.0 in the worst-case-scenario rating for a LD train traveler with a trip that involves the East Coast in any way shape or form for tomorrow and possibly later this week.

So, a question: If you happened to be booked on the Capitol Limited from Washington DC, leaving Tuesday, in sleeper and have a connection in Chicago on Wednseday to the Westbound California Zephyr also in sleeper, are you truly S*** Out of Luck? My gut says Yes. Considering that no other travel options are realistically available (airports are closing down too) just what does a traveler do? Amtrak's only known offered options right now are either Refund/Voucher or rescheduling. And we all know that, at this point, you're never going to nab a sleeper and will likely deal with a sardine-like coach on all trains east of Chicago for the next week or more. Does anyone know if Amtrak is distrubuting hotel vouchers for stranded travelers?

What a mess...

 

[CHamilton]

Empty train stations in New York.

http://allthingsd.co...empty-new-york/

Oh, and the stock exchanges are closed. This feels like a creepy movie.

 

[Nathanael]

This is about a 10.0 in the worst-case-scenario rating for a LD train traveler with a trip that involves the East Coast in any way shape or form for tomorrow and possibly later this week.

This is the worst case weather scenario for the entire Northeastern US. Probably worse than the Floods of '38. At least, I don't want to know about a worse scenario (we may discover a worse scenario if global warming goes unchecked; the bizarre way Hurricame Sandy developed is largely due to global warming).

So, a question: If you happened to be booked on the Capitol Limited from Washington DC, leaving Tuesday, in sleeper and have a connection in Chicago on Wednseday to the Westbound California Zephyr also in sleeper, are you truly S*** Out of Luck? My gut says Yes. Considering that no other travel options are realistically available (airports are closing down too) just what does a traveler do?

Hunker down. Dangerous weather actually extends into Ohio (high winds) and the hurricane/nor'easter is headed for upstate NY on Wednesday -- don't be surprised if the Maple Leaf is shut down in a day or two.

People should have left the East Coast last week. For the next few days, people on the East Coast simply should not be travelling.

I feel a bit sorrier for people between Charlotte and New Orleans or between Jacksonville and Raleigh; the weather is not especially bad that far south (as you can tell since the Piedmont is running), but their trains are cancelled anyway.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

Oh, and the stock exchanges are closed. This feels like a creepy movie.

Just the "floor". I heard electronic exchanges will be available.

 

[JackieTakestheTrain]

Hi.

Just wondering if anyone had heard anything about the Cardinal running.

I just came back from KY from my Grandmother's funeral and now am stranded here in Cincinnati at my parents' house. We were going to take the LSL out of Toledo on Tuesday, but my friend Ms. Julie called on Sunday and said that there had been a service cancellation.

When I called Amtrak, the agent was not aware of cancellations for Tuesday as she had been selling tickets all day on the LSL. I explained to her that I think the reason for my cancellation was because the LSL actually originates out of Chicago on Monday (today) and that all LSL service was cancelled on that day; thus, no train to arrive in Toledo.

So, right now I am booked to leave on the LSL on Wednesday morning to South Station in Boston. I booked a back-up flight on Delta last night to leave out tomorrow morning (just in case Amtrak isnt running on Wednesday even), but I just saw on the Delta website that my flight had been cancelled for tomorrow morning as well.

I refuse to fly on anything but a nonstop because unfortunately everywhere Delta goes to get me to Boston there is a huge chance of being stranded there. Better to be stranded at my folks' house than at an airport!

I am just wondering if I can save myself a trip to Toledo if the Cardinal might run on Wednesday right here out of Cincy.

If anyone has any info. that would be great.

Personally, I don't think it will if there will be a blizzard in the mountains!!

Thanks!

-- Jackie

edited: Just saw on the Amtrak website that the Cardinal is sold out for Wednesday -- Is that code for not running or just no seats????

 

[Cho Cho Charlie]

The MTA just posted some great pictures of the shutdown at Grand Central.

Seems like a good opportunity to do some serious cleaning of the public spaces. :giggle:

 

[jis]

Oh, and the stock exchanges are closed. This feels like a creepy movie.

Just the "floor". I heard electronic exchanges will be available.

This is what the top banner says at fidelity.com:

U.S. stock trading will be closed on Monday and possibly Tuesday in response to Hurricane Sandy. Normal market hours are expected on Wednesday. Fixed income markets will be open until noon on Monday to accommodate the T-Bill auction.

Of course electronic trading can still take place, but the standard "market" is closed.

 

[jis]

Flood protection for Penn Station - this one at the entry to Penn Station from teh West Side Yard

Similar barriers are going up all over the system in the subway system at critical points to protect tunnels too.

I understand that all trains have beene vacuated from the West Side Yard to safer places on the island. Quite a bit of main line trackage is being used as train storage for the duration.

 

[OlympianHiawatha]

While stocks are not trading. commodities including gasoline are and RBOB Futures are skyrocketing due to the storm. It seems 6% of America's refining capacity is now under the gun along with the infrastructure, including rails that move that fuel.

 

[VentureForth]

Are there no evacuation trains being run? Sorry if mentioned already...

 

[jis]

Are there no evacuation trains being run? Sorry if mentioned already...

AFAIK no. Specially where tunnels are involved, it is hard to run trains on tracks where flood barriers are getting set up.

Nothing has run on the M&E that goes by my window, not even a positioning move, since late last night. I think they are all tucked down.

Don't know about the NEC though. NJCL will probably be under water between Perth Amboy and South Amboy later this evening during the next high tide

 

[jis]

While stocks are not trading. commodities including gasoline are and RBOB Futures are skyrocketing due to the storm. It seems 6% of America's refining capacity is now under the gun along with the infrastructure, including rails that move that fuel.

Stocks are trading electronically too. The trading floor is close at NYSE.

Isn't quite a bit of the Commodities Market also in Chicago?

As far as NYMEX goes, same as the Stock Market....

The headquarters of the CME Group’s New York Mercantile Exchange lies in New York’s mandatory evacuation area. As a result, the New York trading floor will be closed on Monday, but electronic trading will go ahead.

 

[jhjr]

It looks like the northbound Silver Meteor was stopped in Washington DC and now the nb Crescent is there too. Any chance they might try to run either one of these southbound out of Washington DC in the coming days?

 

[afigg]

Just wondering if anyone had heard anything about the Cardinal running.

...

I am just wondering if I can save myself a trip to Toledo if the Cardinal might run on Wednesday right here out of Cincy.

If anyone has any info. that would be great.

Personally, I don't think it will if there will be a blizzard in the mountains!!

I would say that the odds of the Cardinal running through CIN and WV on Wednesday are nil. The forecast is for heavy, wet snow at the higher elevations in WV, perhaps 1 to 2 feet in some places. The Cardinal does not run through the high elevations, but there could be heavy snow on the Cardinal route. This storm will knock trees and power lines down over a vast area, including WV and VA. Likely to take days to clear the tracks and restore the signals for the rural Amtrak routes in VA, WV, PA.

 

[jis]

It looks like the northbound Silver Meteor was stopped in Washington DC and now the nb Crescent is there too. Any chance they might try to run either one of these southbound out of Washington DC in the coming days?

AFAIK not on Tuesday, and so far the Wednesday service appears to be from New York. I am sure there will be no final decision on Wednesday until sometime on Tuesday. The final plans for Tuesday will probably be announce early afternoon today.

As of 10:30am EDT Monday

Sandy is now a 90mph storm. The pressure has dropped to 943, so it is now the lowest pressure in recorded history to come ashore in the New York area.

Storm surge estimates at Bridgeport CT and Port Jefferson NJ both on Long Island Sound, are now at 14'

 

[The Davy Crockett]

For the Cardinal, this is what the NWS is saying about WV:

WVZ035>038-046-047-291830-/O.CON.KRLX.BZ.W.0001.121029T1600Z-121031T2000Z/

RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BECKLEY...OAK HILL...FAYETTEVILLE...

MONTGOMERY...SUMMERSVILLE...RICHWOOD...CRAIGSVILLE...COWEN...

MARLINTON...ELKINS

625 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EDT

WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...VERY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WITH THE BEST CHANCES

ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN...BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...RANGING FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES BELOW 2000

FEET...TO 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE 3000 FEET.

* WINDS...INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

SOME OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES COULD GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN FOR THE VALLEYS...

WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE BRUNT OF THE STORM OCCURS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS...

CAUSING POWER OUTAGES OR FLUCTUATIONS. SNOW LOADING...OR THE

WEIGHT OF THE SNOW...MAY CAUSE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...INCLUDING

COLLAPSING ROOFS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WOULD LEAD

TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

Not looking good for the next while.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch:

Here in ALX things are starting to go downhill with high winds - but nothing like is forecast for later today and tonight - and heavy rains.

 

[AmtrakBlue]

We've had rain & wind gusts all morning. One heavy cell has moved west/south. Philly weather is saying the worst will be between 2 pm today & 8 am tomorrow. I'm about 1-1/2 hours southwest of Philly.

 

[Ryan]

Not at all Amtrak related, but this is too cool a picture not to share:

 

[yarrow]

that is a great picture, thanks. it's great getting the updates you easterners are giving. good luck