Yes you might have a issue, but you will have plenty of time after the storm to worry / seek another route, or different transportation.
Yep, looks like she's coming for a visit here. I already have bags of ice in my freezer since I have so little food in there anyway. I have an ice maker, so I will probably fill up some more ziplock bags by Monday night. We went through all this with Irene last year. Hopefully the caulking my landlord put around a window after Irene sent some minor rain into our living room/basement (through the floor board) is still "good". I'll have to remember to put a tarp under the window just in case.I would also recommend ensuring you're prepared for a loss of power for a period of time. Batteries, flashlights, if you have a generator pick of a can or two of gas and ensure that the motor is in running order. If you get some of the small water bottles, you can use them to fill up the empty spaces in your freezer now. The water will freeze and if the power goes out the ice bottles will help the freezer stay cold for a longer period of time.
This morning's forecast from the NHC has shifted the projected landfall south into Delaware:
The storm looks to hit the Mid-Atlantic region around Monday. It would be a very unusual for the NEC to be disrupted for more than several days. Extensive flooding is what can close the NEC for extended periods, but by Saturday, it should be running. If you were doing this trip Wednesday or Thursday, it would be more at risk, but you should be ok. The caveat is the Capitol Limited. If the severe weather from storm moves far enough inland to western PA and MD, CSX might shut the route down for a few days while they clear the ROW.
With the amount of rain that they are projecting, Trenton Station will most likely be under 4 feet of water as the creek tries to drain its catchment area. Hopefully SEPTA will remember to remove their trains from there this time and keep them from getting a soaking.
...and several more.
I was going to say I don't need to worry about charging my phone if the electric goes out...I can use my car. I know things could still go wrong, but, what the heck. Hmm, may need to reactivate my USB Modem. Will probably just wait to see if I need it and call to reactivate it.
With the possible rain totals in the Potomac River watershed flooding could be a major problem for 29 & 30. I remember Agnes in June 0f 1972. I can't remember if the (now) CSX tracks up the valley were severly impacted, but the damage in the river valley was horrific. BTW, HERE is a link to Agnes's track.Speaking of rainfall projections, here's the 5 day projection (so through Tuesday morning - expect these crazy values to spread north as time progresses):
That's because there have been lots of cancellations. Given CSXs past record, my guess is there will be no Silvers running Sunday night, or worse if they are running they will get stuck somewhere on the way, or be running under flash flood warning at 10mph, since its route passes through areas that will have Tropical Storm force winds and soaking rain by that time. You'd probably be better off heading off to Chicago tomorrow
Not a peep from Amtrak yet. So I am assuming all Amtrak service will run without being affected by Sandy.
Well not really. I just cancelled my mileage run to Savannah this weekend. Did so 24 hours before departure to get 100% refund.
Interesting that weather issues are typically addressed by airlines prior to the event, and Amtrak is always after-the-fact reactive. One would think that it would be in Amtrak's best interest to clear reservations from service that has a good chance of being disrupted, but I guess they don't think that far ahead....
BTW United Airlines have already posted their fee waiver and fare difference waiver policy for all airports affected by Sandy:
Not a peep from Amtrak yet. So I am assuming all Amtrak service will run without being affected by Sandy.
I'm not sure what you mean by clearing reservations, but with odds shaping up like they are, I would think it smart to just show a "SOLD OUT" for a few days. This doesn't affect current passengers if the situation turns out to be fine, but Amtrak could always open up space again 12 hours out, to maybe make up SOME of that.Interesting that weather issues are typically addressed by airlines prior to the event, and Amtrak is always after-the-fact reactive. One would think that it would be in Amtrak's best interest to clear reservations from service that has a good chance of being disrupted, but I guess they don't think that far ahead....
BTW United Airlines have already posted their fee waiver and fare difference waiver policy for all airports affected by Sandy:
Not a peep from Amtrak yet. So I am assuming all Amtrak service will run without being affected by Sandy.
I'm under the impression that none of the dynamic models use any sort of storm historical data directly in the simulations. Of course parameter values are based on all sorts of historical data. The intensity forecast, OTOH, is based almost entirely on a statistical analysis of previous storms (SHIPS - Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme).Actually they don't use a single model. They use an ensemble of models and their predictions and use a weighted average of some sort to come up with the most probable path and intensity projections together with confidence intervals for the projection. The further out you go in time the lower is the confidence and bigger is the diameter of the probability cone. All models are not based only on history. They use detailed water temp, air temp and atmospheric condition data and feed them into models that run on various Supercomputers. It is quite a fascinating thing actually. Here is what the ensemble model for this storm looks like at present:IMHO:
Clearing reservations means allowing passengers holding reservations to or from affected locations to be re-accommodated without fare change prior to the storm. That is what airlines do. Someone booked into or out of EWR on UA can now go online or call UA and be rebooked on a flight either before the storm or a few days after the storm with no rebooking fee and no change of fare. If there is a seat on a flight, they can get it, even if they paid a low sale fare months ago. That is great for the passenger. It reduces the uncertainty involved with travelling during the storm. The airline wins as well. Each person who rebooks before the storm is one less person who has to be handled during and after the storm when phone lines are jammed and flights are booked solid for days.
And fill and keep full the gas tank on your car(s).
h34r:
I believe they resell cancelled res. rooms for what the original price paid was.
I think you're partly right...actually, I'm guessing that it's "they at least do so unless revenue management gets to the room first."
There's darn little. Nothing on Amtrak.com, nothing on the @Amtrak or @AmtrakNEC Twitter accounts, and just a short note dated Friday afternoon on the Amtrak Facebook page:
I must admit I do not know the person who posted this, but the parameters presented seem quite logical. So we will see if we get verification in the near future from other sources.
