Viewliner II Uses

[Nathanael]

ANYway, here's my attempt to guess diner allocation:

LSL - 3

Crescent - 4

Silver Star - 4

Silver Meteor - 4

Cardinal - 3 (eventually, probably not for several years, for daily service)

Hileah - 1

Sunnyside - 1

Chicago - 1

New Orleans - 1

---

24

Available diners after mandatory inspections: 26 * (1 - 26/365) = 24

And... there are basically no spares for additional service. It would be worthwhile for Amtrak to exercise an option for 5 more, which would provide some more breathing room in case of crashes, or allow for 1 more train.

Baggage-dorms:

I would expect the same allocation, and again there's no room for expansion.

However, it might be desirable in future to have two rather than one on the Lake Shore Limited (3 more), a protect car in Boston (1), and honestly one might be desirable for the Pennsylvanian-Capitol Limited through cars (3 more). These are very versatile cars and Amtrak really should, if it can, exercise an option for 10 more.

Sleepers:

These, I ran through with some care a while back.

The Cardinal will probably not get an additional sleeper immediately, as the bag-dorm will more than double available rooms immediately. Amtrak will want to see how they sell before adding another sleeper.

Every other train will probably get a sleeper immediately, based on the current loads (though there may be some seasonal tweaking). Additional protect cars get you to:

Cardinal - 1 (eventually, for daily service)

LSL - 3

Crescent - 4

Silver Star - 4

Silver Meteor - 4

Extra Hileah - 1

Extra Sunnyside - 1

Chicago - 1

New Orleans - 1

---

20

25 * (1 - 26/365) = 23 available more or less.

The other three will probably go to the Pennsy-Capitol Limited through cars. So this does allow for some increased service. Still, Amtrak should probably exercise the option for more. Two for #66/67, and some more to cover wrecks and future expansion. My instinct is to say 10, enough to also cover a third Chicago-NY train or a third NY-Florida train or a lot of wrecks.

Baggage cars:

Here, for once, Amtrak seems to have ordered enough to cover most conceivable scenarios. "Typical" eastern trains will use the bag-dorms, "typical" western trains will use cab-bags or coach-bags, and the 55 plain baggage cars seem more than sufficient for the short list of exceptions and the peak traffic. Further, if necessary, it is far easier to press old baggage cars into service than to press old diners or old sleepers into service. I wouldn't recommend ordering any more baggage cars if Amtrak exercises the option.

Conclusion: Amtrak should partially exercise the 70-car option, getting 5 diners, 10 bag-dorms, and 10 sleepers (a total of 25 more), in order to give it some breathing room for the future. That would be sufficient of those types of cars for a few decades (which is roughly how often Amtrak gets to replace cars) and Amtrak can then concentrate on coaches.

 

[Nathanael]

Under the issues that can still be accomplished, he mentioned the Pennsylvanian/Capitol combination in Pittsburgh. Since there will be additional sleepers, I see this as having a good chance of being implemented. Does anyone have any recent info on this situation? I know NS was going to have to put in a new switch at Pittsburgh to facilitate the switching. Is this still in the works.

No recent info. Last I heard, NS had agreed to do so and Amtrak was waiting until Amtrak had its end of things sorted out. Remember, Amtrak needed to scrape up some coaches and a cafe as well as sleepers, and work out the labor details, and it was also tangled up in the plan to reschedule the LSL earlier and the Capitol Limited later... which I hope will happen as it would be a vast improvement. There are also level-boarding issues with Pittsburgh which mean that any work will likely require FRA approval. It could take a while.

He also mentioned adding capacity on the Crescent north of Atlanta. Would this be a place for an additional sleeper?

This is unlikely to happen any time soon as it requires relocating the Atlanta station, which has been a shaggy dog story. Basically, the Crescent needs someplace to cut cars off. NS really doesn't want this happening in the vicinity of the mainline at the current overcrowded Peachtree station -- and the Peachtree station is overcrowded and needs to be relocated anyway, so Amtrak doesn't really want to put money into it in any case. As soon as a new Atlanta station is built, expect cut-off cars at Atlanta -- but I wouldn't expect a new Atlanta station for a decade at this rate.

 

[bgiaquin]

How much would the 70 additional cars cost?

 

[Woody]

How much would the 70 additional cars cost?

Roughly, 130 cars in this order for $300 million rounded = $1.3 each X 70 = $161 million.

 

[Woody]

How much would the 70 additional cars cost?

Roughly, 130 cars in this order for $300 million rounded = $1.3 each X 70 = $161 million.

How much would the 70 additional cars cost?

Roughly, 130 cars in this order for $300 million rounded = $1.3 each X 70 = $161 million.

Oops. A typo. Make that $2.3 million each. Still totals $161 million.

Sure seems we should go for the full option and 70 new cars,

or else expansion becomes very difficult. I'm looking for a day train

for Cleveland and Toledo. Surely I'm not the only one seeing Virginia's

planned train to Bristol gaining momentum toward Knoxville,

Chattanooga, Atlanta. And a baby Crescent down to Charlotte,

or even to Atlanta as a second frequency. We'd hate to wake up

and see a new Congress ready to do something, and find Amtrak

short a few diners and sleepers to make it go.

Of course, I know we badly need to start buying coaches.

If things work out that CAF wins the contract for Viewliner II coaches,

then I'm sure some friendly deal would allow future builds for not too

much money. Still, the nature of the assembly line is to set it up and

keep it going for maximum efficiency.

 

[battalion51]

It seems like somewhere along the way there was talk of not necessarily "needing" all of the V-II sleepers right away so that the V-I's could be upgraded to V-II standards. Doesn't seem like it'd be a far cry for CAF to get the contract to build those modules for the existing 50 sleepers.

 

[AlanB]

It seems like somewhere along the way there was talk of not necessarily "needing" all of the V-II sleepers right away so that the V-I's could be upgraded to V-II standards. Doesn't seem like it'd be a far cry for CAF to get the contract to build those modules for the existing 50 sleepers.

AFAIK, that is indeed the plan. Before they do any increases/changes in service, they're first going to pull the existing cars a few at a time to refurb them using new modules. Of course that is contingent on finding the funding to actually buy 50 sets of new modules.

But this does show the beauty of the Viewliner's modular construction. One just slides out the old modules and slides in the new ones and the bulk of the refurb is done. Yes, it's a bit more complicated than that, but by comparison to a Superliner it is easy. One estimate I heard is that it would take about a month per car to do the refurbs for the Veiwliners. Amtrak spent on average 3 months per car rebuilding the Superliner I's.

 

[OlympianHiawatha]

How much if any does the Plumbing need to be changed on the upgraded V-1s considering all the individual toilets are being removed?

 

[battalion51]

I'd guess that it will mostly be sealing off existing lines since the Roomettes will lack the toilet and sink. It looks like there may still be a water fountain in the room though...

 

[afigg]

How much would the 70 additional cars cost?

In all likelihood, more money than Amtrak can realistically afford with the present level of funding from Congress and much uncertainty over what the final FY2014 appropriations will be. There is also the fundamental question of what will the Amtrak re-authorization bill have in it with regards to the LD trains.

Amtrak has been running ads in the A section Washington Post, 1/2 or 1/4 page, about every weekday from what I have noticed. These ads have not been plugging the Acela or trips to NY, but instead have been ads about the entire Amtrak system and touting the 31 million passengers a year. In today's Post (October 24, page A11), the ad shows a Marine in uniform at a rural station. In the ad, it states "Amtrak carries over 31 million people a year to more than 500 communities nationwide, including many rural areas without other options for scheduled intercity transportation". This is not an ad targeting the general public, but primarily aimed at Congress and staffers on Capitol Hill, the Administration, the media, and the interest groups in DC.

My take is that the goal of the recent actions undertaken by Boardman and Amtrak with the statement about eliminating losses in food & beverage sales in 5 years and today's media event for the Viewliner IIs are to make a case for keeping and funding the LD trains in the next re-authorization bill and FY2014 appropriations. Boardman is fighting to keep the LD trains intact, but is not getting much, if any, credit for this from some posters in the online railroad forms.

What does that have to do with the options for 70 cars? Until there is some clarity from Congress - namely the House - on the future of the LD trains, don't expect Amtrak to buy any additional cars from the contract option. People here should be grateful that the order for 130 cars is being carried out.

 

[afigg]

I'd guess that it will mostly be sealing off existing lines since the Roomettes will lack the toilet and sink. It looks like there may still be a water fountain in the room though...

From previous photos, the sink will remain. The in-room toilets are what goes away. Unless there is a major problem in accessing the pipes, my guess is that the waste pipes for the toilets would be removed during the upgrade and renovation of the Viewliner Is. Why leave disconnected pipes to create problems?

 

[Anderson]

On the extra cars: Let's not forget that the option is 15/15/15/25, with the 25 being baggage cars. I cannot see Amtrak exercising the entirety of the bag-dorm and baggage car options without a lot more on the car side. I can see them exercising a good part of the sleeper option plus a few diners and/or bag-dorms...the sleepers are the most likely IMHO since some of those could got to several different places without complicating any equipment situations.

On the Palm: You'd need at least one extra set to make that work. Assuming that you could standardize the consists between the Florida trains (or juggle a sleeper in MIA if one train was "off" by a sleeper), you'd probably need 11 sets: +2 for the Palm but -1 for at least one set being able to turn quickly at one end or the other. You could do this for the Meteor in New York if you went back to the 1900 departure, you could do it with the Palm (arr. NYP 2300-ish, dep. NYP 0700-ish might work), and/or you might be able to do something on the Miami end in the same vein. I can see a situation where you have it timed so that you get two such "quick turns" (for ten sets), but that's as far as you're likely to get.

On LD coaches: It's quite possible that Amtrak could shake some stuff loose. One thing would be to overhaul some Horizons or Amfleets into longer-distance cars as the new bilevels come in...the Adirondack could use those, for example, which would free up a few LD Amfleets. The Palm might also take a bit of coach demand pressure off the Meteor, allowing it to stick at four coaches for a while. But I agree that such an order is likely to be needed here in the longer term.

 

[battalion51]

I didn't realize the Adirondack was using Amfleet IIs, certainly makes sense, just didn't realize it. Is the Adirondack in with the Palmetto/Pennsylvanian sets where its made up of an Amfleet I Business Class, Amfleet I Cafe, Amfleet I Coach, and 3 Amfleet II Coaches?

Notwithstanding, the math works out that if the Pennsylvanian goes all Amfleet I, there'd be no change in the number of coaches needed for the Palm to go if the Meteor were adjusted such that it only needed three sets.

Presently for the Amfleet IIs (during non-peak periods): you have the Meteor, Star, and Crescent all with four sets and four coaches (48 cars), the LSL with three sets and six coaches (18 cars), Cardinal, Pennsylvanian, and Palm with two sets and three coaches (18 coaches) for a total of 84 coaches needed on a daily basis (or 90 coaches if the Adirondack does carry Amfleet IIs, but it won't change the point of the exercise). Now if you convert the Pennsylvanian to Amfleet I, and get the Meteor down to three sets: you'd have the Meteor at three sets and four coaches (12 cars), the Palm, Star, and Crescent with four sets and four coaches (48 cars), LSL with three sets and six coaches (18 cars), and Cardinal with two sets and three coaches (6 cars) which still balances out to 84 cars (90, if the Adirondack has Amfleet IIs).

The main area to squeeze would be Amfleet Is which are easier to come by than the Amfleet IIs, and I believe there are still some old Coach Dinettes, or whatever they were called, that could still be converted into full coaches. Or as you suggested Anderson, there will be some more cars floating around as the Midwest Bi-Levels are put into service.

 

[rickycourtney]

Of course, I know we badly need to start buying coaches.

I really wonder how many new single level coaches Amtrak really needs in the long run. Remember that the Amfleet and Horizon cars currently used on the Midwestern routes will be replaced with brand new bi level equipment starting in 2015. That's going to free up a lot of coaches.

It seems like somewhere along the way there was talk of not necessarily "needing" all of the V-II sleepers right away so that the V-I's could be upgraded to V-II standards. Doesn't seem like it'd be a far cry for CAF to get the contract to build those modules for the existing 50 sleepers.

Actually it would be RailPlan who would build the modules for the 50 Viewliner I sleepers (considering they're the ones who built the modules for CAF). The modules could be installed by Amtrak in their shops.

 

[AlanB]

I didn't realize the Adirondack was using Amfleet IIs, certainly makes sense, just didn't realize it. Is the Adirondack in with the Palmetto/Pennsylvanian sets where its made up of an Amfleet I Business Class, Amfleet I Cafe, Amfleet I Coach, and 3 Amfleet II Coaches?

The Adirondack runs with 2 AMF II's, cafe, and generally 3 AMF I's.

The Leaf is also running with AMF II's, 3 I believe, along with 1 AMF I coach and a Club-Dinette.

 

[Anderson]

Of course, I know we badly need to start buying coaches.

I really wonder how many new single level coaches Amtrak really needs in the long run. Remember that the Amfleet and Horizon cars currently used on the Midwestern routes will be replaced with brand new bi level equipment starting in 2015. That's going to free up a lot of coaches.

It seems like somewhere along the way there was talk of not necessarily "needing" all of the V-II sleepers right away so that the V-I's could be upgraded to V-II standards. Doesn't seem like it'd be a far cry for CAF to get the contract to build those modules for the existing 50 sleepers.

Actually it would be RailPlan who would build the modules for the 50 Viewliner I sleepers (considering they're the ones who built the modules for CAF). The modules could be installed by Amtrak in their shops.

Amtrak at least needs additional long(er)-distance coaches. The NEC proper should be served well enough by the existing fleet+supplemental cars from the Midwest for a while, but the LD trains are facing a slow-but-steady increase in demand in spite of no increase in service whatsoever (not to mention various disruptions and whatnot).

With that said, it seems likely that if we're looking at timeframes in the 10-25 year range:

(1) Some cars will need to be replaced. Fleet attrition may be <1%/yr, but it still adds up given enough time.

(1a) As the Amfleets get older, it's likely there will also be at least some increase in the number that need extra maintenance work.

(2) Compound interest will rear its ugly head. At the moment, Amtrak has managed to put a million more riders on the same schedules/FYin the space of four years (FY09-FY13), but how many more they can pack in is an open question. The same thing applies to the system as a whole as well, yes, but it also applies on a localized scale as well. The Regionals can take 8 million riders (as they did last year, even after all the disruptions). They can probably take at least 9 million...but what about 10 million? 11 million? There's a hard limit somewhere, and Regionals run into a limit at about 12 cars because of platforming issues.

(2a) From what I've seen, Amtrak would like to run Regionals and Acelas on a half-hourly schedule instead of the present hourly schedule. That's going to need more equipment...and based on rough guesses as to ridership trends, it does not take a high rate of increase to fill more trains even before induced demand shows up.

(3) And of course, none of this considers the fact that VA has an aggressive rail expansion program that is beginning to ramp up. From conversations I've had and reports I've read, there isn to serious and sincere talk about trying to extend virtually every Regional from WAS south to NFK, NPN, or ROA. This will take time to run up, but do consider what happens if VA starts slinging a million more riders up the NEC as well, not to mention what happens when some of those trains cause the NEC to "lose" an equipment turn due to timing.

(3a) VA isn't the only one looking at added services. VT and NC seem to actively want them as well, and I believe that MA and PA are looking at stuff as well. I'm not sure about NY's situation, but they also picked up the largest net hit from PRIIA 209 in the east. The problem? They all use the same equipment, more or less. Again, Horizons and Midwest Amfleets may fill in some gaps...but if you end up with a second Vermonter, a second Pennsylvanian, a second Ethan Allen, and some Inland Route trains, that's going add even more pressure to the relevant equipment pools. If NY gets into the game as well and/or PA starts adding Keystones? Good luck.

(4) Finally, remember that it can take 5-10 years to actually get equipment into service from when the first RFP is put out. We've been looking forward to the Viewliner IIs for how long now?

Something to remember: In the last decade or so, ridership has skyrocketed on a number of routes. On the extended NEC, we've seen:

-Keystone ridership increase from 730k to 1466k from FY05-FY13 (there were some frequency additions early in this period from what I can tell).c

-ALB-TWO ridership increase from 272k to 406k from FY05-FY13.

-Vermonter ridership increase from 49k to 84k from FY05-FY13 (this is only on the VT section of it, not the whole train down to WAS).

-Adirondack ridership increase from 86k to 133k from FY05-FY13.

-Carolinian ridership increase from 219k to 317k from FY05-FY13.

-Piedmont ridership increase from 45k to 170k from FY05-FY13 (they went from one frequency to two...and increased ridership by about 150%...since FY09)

-WAS-Hampton Roads ridership went from 438k to 706k from FY05-FY13 (a fifth train was added to RVR and turned into a third train to Hampton Roads)

-The Lynchburger went from non-existent to 186k.

-Even the Springfield Shuttle showed a notable increase (319k to 390k).

Having ridden it regularly, I can say that the Adirondack could easily take another car for most of the summer. It could probably do with a lot more than that (actual BC, etc.) even before any service improvements come into the mix, and once you add the longer-term sterile facility in MTR it'll probably need another car or two most of the year at the very least. Looking at a few other routes with "stuck" ridership, I know the Lynchburger frequently sells out as well, and IIRC most of the "upstate" trains in NY have capacity issues ALB-SDY.

Honestly, if I sat down, looked at the credible plans that're likely to bear fruit in the next decade or so, account for growth on the NEC, and put in very limited expansions on the LD front, I can allocate a lot of cars of all types.

tl;dr is that it doesn't take a lot of work to allocate another 100 coaches in the next 10-15 years, and if a bunch of states' plans come together and you need more LD capacity, I can probably allocate about 200 cars once you take spares into account.

 

[Ryan]

Between this and your NARP blog post, it's obvious that you've got a handle on the numbers and that the current car orders aren't enough.

When do you get a job at Amtrak so you can fix this?

 

[afigg]

Between this and your NARP blog post, it's obvious that you've got a handle on the numbers and that the current car orders aren't enough.

When do you get a job at Amtrak so you can fix this?

Amtrak management should have a pretty good handle on the numbers, capacity, and ridership growth projections. The problem is not Amtrak, but lack of capital funding from Congress to buy new equipment. Amtrak can only realistically get affordable loans on equipment that is expected to generate net positive revenue: the ACS-64s for the NEC and the Acela IIs. With the eastern states paying capital charges, there should be a path in a few years, once Amtrak has accumulated enough capital for a down payment for an Amfleet I replacement order. The LD trains are another matter.

 

[Nathanael]

Oops. A typo. Make that $2.3 million each.

So 25 more cars would cost $57.5 million. Probably somewhat less, actually, because the pricing will have an upfront "production line setup" cost to it, which Amtrak won't have to repay when ordering an option.
It's possible. Amtrak has until sometime in 2015 to commit to extending production.

I wouldn't expect an exercise of the full 15/15/15/25-car option -- I just can't see a scenario under which 25 more full baggage cars will be needed, and baggage cars are easy to improvise from other cars if really necessary. But given how hard it is to make a small order later, it would be well worth it for Amtrak to try to exercise at least part of the order. 45 would be great; my calculations say that 25 is the minimum appropriate for anticipated services and protection against wrecks; but even 1 or 2 extra cars of each type (excepting full baggage cars) would help.

I think the only source of available funding is going to be "internally generated", i.e. better-than-expected operating results, but it is conceivable that it will be possible to get a few more. If 2014 operating results are really good it will be the right thing to do with the money. Repairing the decaying bridges on the NEC can happen any time... buying new sleepers and diners from an operating production line is going to be a once-and-gone opportunity.

Given that no other organization in North America is going to be ordering new diners, sleepers, or bag-dorms, probably, *ever*, it is imperative to take up the option now rather than having to pay the enormous cost of restarting a production line later. Honestly, in the unlikely scenario that Amtrak ends up with "too many", the diners will be saleable to museum and tourist operations and perhaps VIA Rail if it hasn't shut down -- so they should have residual value.

 

[Nathanael]

Amtrak can only realistically get affordable loans on equipment that is expected to generate net positive revenue: the ACS-64s for the NEC and the Acela IIs.

Hey hey hey. Sleepers generate net positive incremental revenues, we all know this! So does the Silver Meteor as a whole (according to Boardman's presentation) and the Lake Shore Limited is close!
But admittedly the net positive revenues are very small, which doesn't make for affordable loans; for an affordable loan, the net positive revenues would have to be large enough to cover the *interest*, which probably doesn't happen even for the sleepers.

Just clarifying.

 

[me_little_me]

Don't forget. Existing cars will probably be coming out of service for needed refurbishment or for scrapping so not all the new cars may be available for use as additional cars.

 

[jis]

The Sleepers won't be coming out for scrapping anytime soon, unless they get crumpled in an accident of course. So one can forget about the scrapping part. Refurbishment might happen at some point, but that is just a couple of months per car and they will be cycled through it, not taken out en mass.

And as for the Diners and Baggage cars, yes, the old ones will be on their way out.

 

[Anderson]

For the purposes of demonstration, with what is either presently operational, in one of the PIPs, or given serious and plausible speculation in terms of slots, here's what I can burn through equipment-wise:
Lake Shore Limited-NYP: 3 sleepers, 4 coaches, 1 diner
Lake Shore Limited-BOS: 1 sleeper, 2 coaches, 1 cafe
Sets Needed: 3
Total cars needed: 12 sleepers, 18 coaches, 3 diners, 3 cafes

Silver Service-ORL: 2 sleepers, 3 coaches, 1 diner
Silver Service-FEC: 2 sleepers, 3 coaches, 1 cafe
Sets Needed: 11
Total cars needed: 44 sleepers, 66 coaches, 11 diners, 11 cafes

Crescent: 4 sleepers, 5 coaches, 1 diner, 1 cafe
Sets Needed: 4
Total cars needed: 16 sleepers, 20 coaches, 4 diners, 4 cafes

Cardinal: 3 sleepers, 4 coaches, 1 diner, 1 cafe
Sets needed: 3
Total cars needed: 9 sleepers, 12 coaches, 3 diners, 3 cafes

Capital Limited-Pennsylvanian: 2 sleepers, 2 coaches, 1 cafe
Sets Needed: 3
Total cars needed: 6 sleepers, 6 coaches, 3 cafes

Nite Owl: 2 sleepers, 5 coaches, 1 cafe
Sets needed: 2
Total cars needed: 4 sleepers, 10 coaches, 2 cafes

Grand totals (before spares): 91 sleepers, 132 coaches, 21 diners, 26 cafes

Note that this exceeds both the planned total of sleepers and the present total of LD Amfleet coaches before spares...and yet, looking at ridership over the last decade, I think you can make a clear case for there being sufficient demand to support this distribution of cars and then some. The only speculations on here are (1) Amtrak over the FEC and (2) the Silver Palm coming back. Everything else seems very likely. What's more, I could probably add another sleeper to the LSL and fill it, if not at least one of the Silvers as well.

 

[jis]

66/67 will never get all LD coaches. Doubt very much it will get any.

 

[Anderson]

That brings up a serious question: How much business does 66/67 get that's not on either end (i.e. BAL-south or NHV/PVD-north)? From what I can tell, ridership between VA and the far end of the NEC is pretty thin...but I can't speak for how much there might be between, say, WAS/BAL and BOS/PVD, and there are a good number of people on that train going a long way.