Is Amtrak LD Truly Relevant

[henryj]

That's rather pathetic by international standards.

IMO, the only way to solve the issue is to extend trains, and YES, I know that Amtrak does not have the cars to do so.

Suggest that you look up the relative performance of railway passenger service elsewhere. You may find tha tAmtrak is not so pathetic after all. It has been several years since I did, but I was surprised at how well Amtrak did in comparison with places that had much denser service per line averages.

What 'elsewhere' are you talking about? When I was in Germany if a train was a few seconds off the published arrival time people started looking at their watches and pacing around nervously. I traveled extensively in Europe and found the trains ran like clockwork. If you arrived at the platform a few seconds late you would be looking at the markers disapearing down the track. You must be thinking about some poor decrepid third world country. Amtrak's time keeping is very pathetic and 'third worldish'. If you ever travel to Germany and book your tickets online over here be sure to uncheck the 'make all close connections' box or you will be literally running down platforms and down and up stairs to catch your next train.

 

[Ryan]

There's more to the world to the US and Europe.

 

[Anderson]

That's rather pathetic by international standards.

IMO, the only way to solve the issue is to extend trains, and YES, I know that Amtrak does not have the cars to do so.

Suggest that you look up the relative performance of railway passenger service elsewhere. You may find tha tAmtrak is not so pathetic after all. It has been several years since I did, but I was surprised at how well Amtrak did in comparison with places that had much denser service per line averages.

What 'elsewhere' are you talking about? When I was in Germany if a train was a few seconds off the published arrival time people started looking at their watches and pacing around nervously. I traveled extensively in Europe and found the trains ran like clockwork. If you arrived at the platform a few seconds late you would be looking at the markers disapearing down the track. You must be thinking about some poor decrepid third world country. Amtrak's time keeping is very pathetic and 'third worldish'. If you ever travel to Germany and book your tickets online over here be sure to uncheck the 'make all close connections' box or you will be literally running down platforms and down and up stairs to catch your next train.

I think he was referring to the CR numbers. Whether a train can meet a tight timetable regularly does not mean that it's going to make back its expenses, and a badly late train might still make a profit in the right circumstances.

 

[George Harris]

That's rather pathetic by international standards.

IMO, the only way to solve the issue is to extend trains, and YES, I know that Amtrak does not have the cars to do so.

Suggest that you look up the relative performance of railway passenger service elsewhere. You may find tha tAmtrak is not so pathetic after all. It has been several years since I did, but I was surprised at how well Amtrak did in comparison with places that had much denser service per line averages.

What 'elsewhere' are you talking about? When I was in Germany if a train was a few seconds off the published arrival time people started looking at their watches and pacing around nervously. I traveled extensively in Europe and found the trains ran like clockwork. If you arrived at the platform a few seconds late you would be looking at the markers disapearing down the track. You must be thinking about some poor decrepid third world country. Amtrak's time keeping is very pathetic and 'third worldish'. If you ever travel to Germany and book your tickets online over here be sure to uncheck the 'make all close connections' box or you will be literally running down platforms and down and up stairs to catch your next train.

I think he was referring to the CR numbers. Whether a train can meet a tight timetable regularly does not mean that it's going to make back its expenses, and a badly late train might still make a profit in the right circumstances.

I was referring to the CR numbers. I thought that was the subject at the time.

 

[ButFli]

Just wondering if any members have read Joseph Vranich's "End of the Line" and what they think about it. Vranich makes claims similar to those of the OP but is able to back them up with facts. Specifically, he refutes claims about other modes receiving more subsidies and that increased ridership means Amtrak is on a path to success. The book is not anti-Government-funded-rail. It is anti-Amtrak, or at least anti-Amtrak as Amtrak operates now.

Just saying.

 

[jis]

I was referring to the CR numbers. I thought that was the subject at the time.

That is really not surprising at all, because how important CR is for specific operations is more of apolitical decision, and as we know politics is different even in different parts of the US. That is typically reflected in the differences in CR of various local operations.

Also the notion of CR really applies to units of business, and the business overall. Even extremely profitable businesses with huge cash flows (and I am familiar with a few, being intimately involved with one) internally have units that by design have terrible or no CR per se. They serve support functions by design. Usually they are not reported on individually, but as part of a larger unit that covers that sin completely. If such was not done there would not be any new product development ever, for example.

The question to ask then is what role does transportation play and how it should be packaged organizationally and accounted for, knowing that some fundamental support functions will have low CR. Afterall freight railroads get it and are able to report reasonable CRs, some smaller ones with considerable external financial inputs. OTOH the highways do not really produce in measurable CR at all in the classical sense and certainly are in an enormous hole if all required maintenance issues are accounted for. Some fuel tax hocus pocus makes some of it look almost palatable though, mind you, using a tax that was originally meant to address the "debt problem" not just the highways..

 

[Anderson]

I was referring to the CR numbers. I thought that was the subject at the time.

That is really not surprising at all, because how important CR is for specific operations is more of apolitical decision, and as we know politics is different even in different parts of the US. That is typically reflected in the differences in CR of various local operations.

Also the notion of CR really applies to units of business, and the business overall. Even extremely profitable businesses with huge cash flows (and I am familiar with a few, being intimately involved with one) internally have units that by design have terrible or no CR per se. They serve support functions by design. Usually they are not reported on individually, but as part of a larger unit that covers that sin completely. If such was not done there would not be any new product development ever, for example.

The question to ask then is what role does transportation play and how it should be packaged organizationally and accounted for, knowing that some fundamental support functions will have low CR. Afterall freight railroads get it and are able to report reasonable CRs, some smaller ones with considerable external financial inputs. OTOH the highways do not really produce in measurable CR at all in the classical sense and certainly are in an enormous hole if all required maintenance issues are accounted for. Some fuel tax hocus pocus makes some of it look almost palatable though, mind you, using a tax that was originally meant to address the "debt problem" not just the highways..

Well, you're always going to have routes that lose money in any well-designed system; at least in theory, with a major business, you have loss leaders but you have profitable routes (or products) to offset those...do remember the old saying of "giving away the razors to sell the blades". A good example is that, in order for the NEC to be profitable, you may need some routes leading into it to lose money (the Shuttle and the Keystone both fall in this category to some extent...though I think in both cases, you may have too much reallocated revenue going to the NEC Spine and hurting those trains) to drive up ridership (and revenue) over the whole operation. I'd also point out the dining car situation that has always existed (food service has always lost money overall, but decent food is a necessity to get people to take the train).

What I am going to be interested in seeing is where things are at the end of FY11. I don't look at the Corridor routes too closely throughout the year because of the state funding "lumps" that occasionally put a route in the black simply because of when the check gets cut. That said, those corridors seem to be a bit more "noisy" in terms of performance.

 

[George Harris]

Just wondering if any members have read Joseph Vranich's "End of the Line" and what they think about it. Vranich makes claims similar to those of the OP but is able to back them up with facts. Specifically, he refutes claims about other modes receiving more subsidies and that increased ridership means Amtrak is on a path to success. The book is not anti-Government-funded-rail. It is anti-Amtrak, or at least anti-Amtrak as Amtrak operates now.

Just saying.

He would have some more credibility with me if he did not use Reason Foundation data to support his position. Although Reason purports itself to be that, a voice of reason and politically conservative, in transportation matters, it is the Petroleum and Road foundation. Vranich's supposed pro-passenger position reminds me of the saying, God, my enemies I can handle, but please protect me from my friends.

There are many other things in his statements and positions that poke holes in his points.

 

[ButFli]

Just wondering if any members have read Joseph Vranich's "End of the Line" and what they think about it. Vranich makes claims similar to those of the OP but is able to back them up with facts. Specifically, he refutes claims about other modes receiving more subsidies and that increased ridership means Amtrak is on a path to success. The book is not anti-Government-funded-rail. It is anti-Amtrak, or at least anti-Amtrak as Amtrak operates now.

Just saying.

He would have some more credibility with me if he did not use Reason Foundation data to support his position. Although Reason purports itself to be that, a voice of reason and politically conservative, in transportation matters, it is the Petroleum and Road foundation. Vranich's supposed pro-passenger position reminds me of the saying, God, my enemies I can handle, but please protect me from my friends.

There are many other things in his statements and positions that poke holes in his points.

I've just had a look through the reference section of the book and I can't see one time the Reason Foundation is cited. Most of the data seems to come from Amtrak itself. I also find it bizarre that you claim there is a pro-road and petrol influence considering the book is in favour of passenger rail, just not done by Amtrak. Just saying.

I'm not saying the book is necessarily right. All I'm saying is that someone has cited facts and figures and made a convincing argument that Amtrak is doing it wrong. Where is the pro-Amtrak equivalent?

 

[jis]

I'm not saying the book is necessarily right. All I'm saying is that someone has cited facts and figures and made a convincing argument that Amtrak is doing it wrong. Where is the pro-Amtrak equivalent?

Are you asking this question after having looked for such and not found any? If you have looked where have you looked so far? Also have you read any of Vranich's other writings? As you say .... Just saying or well er.... asking.

As an obvious place to start, have you looked at www.narprail.org?

Also have you tried to read any of Vranich's earlier diatribes?

Another activity that might be educational is to actually look at Amtrak's publications and see the interesting spins that Vranich is able to put on those. It's all quite fascinating actually. Also read what Vranich's positions on exactly the same things were when he worked for Amtrak before he was essentially inauspiciously removed. There are layers upon layers of story in this soap opera which has been quite entertaining in and of itself.

 

[Anderson]

I'm not saying the book is necessarily right. All I'm saying is that someone has cited facts and figures and made a convincing argument that Amtrak is doing it wrong. Where is the pro-Amtrak equivalent?

Are you asking this question after having looked for such and not found any? If you have looked where have you looked so far? Also have you read any of Vranich's other writings? As you say .... Just saying or well er.... asking.

As an obvious place to start, have you looked at www.nraprail.org?

Also have you tried to read any of Vranich's earlier diatribes?

Another activity that might be educational is to actually look at Amtrak's publications and see the interesting spins that Vranich is able to put on those. It's all quite fascinating actually. Also read what Vranich's positions on exactly the same things were when he worked for Amtrak before he was essentially inauspiciously removed. There are layers upon layers of story in this soap opera which has been quite entertaining in and of itself.

Brought to you by Colgate?

Sorry...anyhow, could I get some information on this soap opera? For good or ill, I do enjoy reading a good saga.

 

[jis]

Brought to you by Colgate?

Sorry...anyhow, could I get some information on this soap opera? For good or ill, I do enjoy reading a good saga.

Go to various rail forums and search for Vranich. It does involves jilting and such

 

[George Harris]

Brought to you by Colgate?

Sorry...anyhow, could I get some information on this soap opera? For good or ill, I do enjoy reading a good saga.

Go to various rail forums and search for Vranich. It does involves jilting and such

Ever heard the expression, "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned"? To say Mr. V was "inauspiciously terminated" is very polite. While I have no idea of the truth of the matter, and remember for any disagreement, there are usually three versions, No. 1's version, No. 2's version, and the truth, whatever happened it left Mr. V with a strong grudge against Amtrak to the point that it reduces if not eliminates the credibility of his positions.

 

[jis]

Ever heard the expression, "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned"? To say Mr. V was "inauspiciously terminated" is very polite. While I have no idea of the truth of the matter, and remember for any disagreement, there are usually three versions, No. 1's version, No. 2's version, and the truth, whatever happened it left Mr. V with a strong grudge against Amtrak to the point that it reduces if not eliminates the credibility of his positions.

Actually if he ever managed to get off of his anti-Amtrak high horse and produce a dispassionate treatise of the problems facing evolution of rail passenger system, I think he does have the information available to him to produce a very reasonable treatise. But his irrational hatred of Amtrak prevents him from doing so. In sort he spends too much time and effort venting about Amtrak and ignoring real issues that need addressing. Just IMHO of course.

 

[AlanB]

While I've not read Mr. Vranich's book in question, and therefore cannot speak accurately to his number and by no means do I seek to disparage his numbers either, let me point out the citing facts doesn't always mean that you're getting the whole story either.

For example, there are two other anti-rail people (and let me note that Mr. Vranich is anti-Amtrak; not anti-rail), who love to play with their facts. My favorite example is that they'll tell you and cite a valid source that shows that ridership on public transit in Portland, Oregon as a percentage of the population has gone down since they started building light rail. The conclusion that of course they want you to believe is that people aren't riding public transit and specifically light rail. And for those already opposed to rail, this is exactly the proof that they're looking for and easily believed.

However, with a modicum of common sense and a tiny bit of research you can find plenty of facts that show that actual transit ridership namely bodies in seats in Portland has been increasing steadily, with maybe a year or two of hiccups where it went down slightly, ever since they started building light rail.

So how can both be true?

Simple, when expressing the total ridership as a percentage of the population you in effect create a magic trick. The population of Portland is increasing at a much faster rate than transit's ability to carry that ever increasing population. In other words, these are not real numbers, if transit's ability or capacity to carry more people over the last 30 years has increased by 2% and the population has increased by 15%, then clearly transit is carrying less of the total population.

But again bodies in seats hasn't gone down, just transit's market share and only because they're not building it fast enough even though they are one of the better cities for getting the job done.

Again, since I didn't read that book, I'm not suggesting that Mr. Vranich used such a trick. But my point remains that simply citing facts doesn't always mean that the conclusion reached is a valid one.

 

[Bob Dylan]

As Mark Twain said: "There are three kinds of Lies. Lies,Damn Lies and Statistics!" :excl: :excl: :excl: (think the Politicians, Wall Street and Banker Sharks used this to get us into the current Finanacial mess this Country and World is experiencing!)

 

[jis]

As Mark Twain said: "There are three kinds of Lies. Lies,Damn Lies and Statistics!" :excl: :excl: :excl: (think the Politicians, Wall Street and Banker Sharks used this to get us into the current Finanacial mess this Country and World is experiencing!)

That put together with ignorance and apathy on part of the folks on the street is a lethal mix. All this could have been avoided if the general public were not sitting around like *duh* doing nothing about anything.

 

[henryj]

As Mark Twain said: "There are three kinds of Lies. Lies,Damn Lies and Statistics!" :excl: :excl: :excl: (think the Politicians, Wall Street and Banker Sharks used this to get us into the current Finanacial mess this Country and World is experiencing!)

That put together with ignorance and apathy on part of the folks on the street is a lethal mix. All this could have been avoided if the general public were not sitting around like *duh* doing nothing about anything.

It's all over any way, the US debt has been down graded, the dollar is worthless, the markets have crashed, gold is over 1700 and going to 2000 and...............GLENN BECK IS MOVING TO TEXAS.

 

[jis]

It's all over any way, the US debt has been down graded, the dollar is worthless, the markets have crashed, gold is over 1700 and going to 2000 and...............GLENN BECK IS MOVING TO TEXAS.

:help: :giggle:

 

[Bob Dylan]

As Mark Twain said: "There are three kinds of Lies. Lies,Damn Lies and Statistics!" :excl: :excl: :excl: (think the Politicians, Wall Street and Banker Sharks used this to get us into the current Finanacial mess this Country and World is experiencing!)

That put together with ignorance and apathy on part of the folks on the street is a lethal mix. All this could have been avoided if the general public were not sitting around like *duh* doing nothing about anything.

It's all over any way, the US debt has been down graded, the dollar is worthless, the markets have crashed, gold is over 1700 and going to 2000 and...............GLENN BECK IS MOVING TO TEXAS.

:help: :help: :help: Just what we need, another Media Kook!!!

 

[Grandpa D]

...and...............GLENN BECK IS MOVING TO TEXAS.

But will he run for governor?

 

[Ryan]

You mean after Rick Perry is elected President?

 

[Bob Dylan]

You mean after Rick Perry is elected President?

:help: Say it ain't so!!!! I can just hear Tina Fey on SNL going: "And how did that Texas Governor as President thingy work out for you last time pilgrim????" :giggle: