Empire Builder to resume normal schedule on January 12, 2015

[afigg]

Amtrak posted a news release announcing that the Empire Builder would return to its normal schedule on January 12, 2015: Amtrak Empire Builder Back To Normal Schedule.

Will the EB be able to stick to the normal schedule through next summer or will the combination of track work and congestion force the return of the stretched schedule? Remains to be seen. OTOH, the effect of the drop in oil prices on Bakken field production has only started to kick in.

CHICAGO – Amtrak will resume operating the Empire Builder (Trains 7/27 & 8/28) on its regular schedule and route in both directions, effective with the departures of Jan. 12, 2015.

The return of the previous timetables from Seattle and Portland will offer more attractive arrival and departure times for the balance of the winter recreation season in the Flathead Valley of Montana, near Glacier National Park. Additionally, Leavenworth and Spokane, Wash., and Sandpoint, Idaho, passengers will again enjoy same-day round trips to Portland or Seattle.

Three additional hours eastbound and 90 minutes westbound were added to the schedules in April west of St. Paul, Minn. This was done to accommodate $1 billion in BNSF construction projects to add capacity and to help improve service for all traffic on its route.

Amtrak and BNSF continue to work cooperatively on the operational and maintenance issues that affect Amtrak trains on this line. BNSF is committed to work to improve the performance of the Empire Builder going forward.

“Local community and business leaders depend on the Empire Builder and see Amtrak service as an important public transportation link,” said DJ Stadtler, Amtrak Executive Vice President/Chief Operations Officer. “We will work closely with BNSF to fulfill a commitment to Amtrak passengers and our communities to operate this train on schedules our customers expect.”

“BNSF has a long history of hosting passenger service on our freight network. The investments we are continuing to make will help improve reliability for all our customers, including Amtrak,” said DJ Mitchell, AVP Passenger Operations, BNSF Railway.

Also effective with the schedule restoration, the Empire Builder will resume operating on its normal route in both directions in North Dakota. Amtrak will then discontinue the use of chartered buses to cover missed station stops in Grand Forks, Devils Lake and Rugby, N.D., which has been routine since May.

Amtrak President & CEO Joe Boardman visited North Dakota earlier this year to engage community leaders and stressed the importance of reliable service.

 

[jebr]

Hopefully this will allow restored connections to the CS in Portland and to the CL, Card, and CONO (along with Chicago-area corridor trains) as well.

 

[neroden]

Good. Unfortunately, that just means it'll go back to its usual rate of lateness; I still wouldn't expect to get an eastbound connection through Chicago. :-(

 

[Ispolkom]

The connections to the Coast Starlight in Portland, and to the Capitol Limited in Chicago are still broken, at least for dates in February. The connection to the City of New Orleans is good now -- you can book PDX-CHI-NOL on #28 and #59 leaving Portland tomorrow.

 

[George K]

Is there a copy of the old/new (prior to padding) schedule available online? My trip in September was with the padded schedule. I'd love to see how it would have differed.

 

[Joe F]

Does this mean Amtrak will once again guarantee the connection to Wolverine train 354? Given the EB's history, it probably won't make it very often, but a guaranteed connection means Amtrak will have to use bustitutions when needed -- not an ideal situation, but better than what is in place now.

 

[afigg]

Is there a copy of the old/new (prior to padding) schedule available online? My trip in September was with the padded schedule. I'd love to see how it would have differed.

The news release has the restored schedule on page 3. The current extended EB schedule is available on the Amtrak timetable page with an effective on October 1, 2014 date.

As for allowed connections, people should check the reservation system to see if others get restored in the coming days. However, Amtrak may be reluctant to restore the CL connection until they have some confidence that it will work most of the time.

 

[montana mike]

My local BNSf folks say stay tuned for next summer. BNSF's current thinking is that "some schedule adjustments" may be needed if the construction schedule for 2015 goes as planned (they pointed out that from eastern MT thru ND there is still not sufficient capacity to handle all of the traffic effectively). BTW-BNSF is estimating that using the old schedule should mean approximately 70-90 minute delays into CHI each day and less than an hour into SEA/PDX. Evidently this amount of delay was acceptable to Amtrak.

 

[neroden]

70-90 minutes? Well, that's how much delay we typically see on the Star, Meteor, LSL, CL, etc. Before trying to squeeze that level of delay out of the Empire Builder, Amtrak would try to squeeze it out of the east coast trains. And we know from experience that if the schedule is lengthened, the dispatchers often just delay the trains more.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Will the EB be able to stick to the normal schedule through next summer or will the combination of track work and congestion force the return of the stretched schedule? Remains to be seen. OTOH, the effect of the drop in oil prices on Bakken field production has only started to kick in.

We've seen big moves in spot market futures contracts but it's hard to quantify what impact that will have on large scale shipping contracts at this time. If Amtrak had any amount of power to enforce their schedules I'd be supportive of making moves now while BNSF is willing to negotiate. However, since Amtrak's contracts seem to have little if any practical recourse for delays I'd advise that they wait this out rather than risk jumping the gun. BNSF doesn't seem like the kind of company that can accurately anticipate demand from their own customers, let alone master the art of reading market driven tea leaves. This change seems a bit too early to me.

 

[spidersfan351]

Just saw this on Amtrak's webpage under news:

(http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/805/708/Amtrak-Empire-Builder-returns-to-normal-schedule-ATK-14-121.pdf)

AMTRAK EMPIRE BUILDER BACK TO NORMAL SCHEDULE
More popular timetables for Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana;
Detours end in North Dakota

CHICAGO – Amtrak will resume operating the Empire Builder (Trains 7/27 & 8/28) on
its regular schedule and route in both directions, effective with the departures of Jan. 12, 2015.
The return of the previous timetables from Seattle and Portland will offer more attractive
arrival and departure times for the balance of the winter recreation season in the Flathead Valley
of Montana, near Glacier National Park. Additionally, Leavenworth and Spokane, Wash., and
Sandpoint, Idaho, passengers will again enjoy same-day round trips to Portland or Seattle.
Three additional hours eastbound and 90 minutes westbound were added to the schedules
in April west of St. Paul, Minn. This was done to accommodate $1 billion in BNSF construction
projects to add capacity and to help improve service for all traffic on its route.
Amtrak and BNSF continue to work cooperatively on the operational and maintenance
issues that affect Amtrak trains on this line. BNSF is committed to work to improve the
performance of the Empire Builder going forward.
“Local community and business leaders depend on the Empire Builder and see Amtrak
service as an important public transportation link,” said DJ Stadtler, Amtrak Executive Vice
President/Chief Operations Officer. “We will work closely with BNSF to fulfill a commitment to
Amtrak passengers and our communities to operate this train on schedules our customers
expect.”
“BNSF has a long history of hosting passenger service on our freight network. The
investments we are continuing to make will help improve reliability for all our customers,
including Amtrak,” said DJ Mitchell, AVP Passenger Operations, BNSF Railway.

Also effective with the schedule restoration, the Empire Builder will resume operating on
its normal route in both directions in North Dakota. Amtrak will then discontinue the use of
chartered buses to cover missed station stops in Grand Forks, Devils Lake and Rugby, N.D.,
which has been routine since May.
Amtrak President & CEO Joe Boardman visited North Dakota earlier this year to engage
community leaders and stressed the importance of reliable service.
Current on-time performance data are available on Amtrak.com, including responsibility
for each element of delay. This information is also presented to passengers when booking travel
on the website and is available elsewhere from Amtrak.

 

[Bob Dylan]

Nothing in the press release about resuming the "guaranteed" connections in PDX between the EB and the CS! Also the connections in CHI with the Card and Cap and the Regional Train!

Wonder if you'll still have to do a layover on your dime in PDX?

 

[Phil S]

Is some part of the track work due to be finished between now and Jan 12? For a while in Dec. the Builders were running close to on time, I assumed due to lower volume BNSF freight during the holidays and maybe just possibly reduced fracking activity due to the nose-dive in oil prices. But lately they're back to running hours late. So, unless something will change by Jan. 12, why try to go back to the old schedule?

 

[afigg]

The news release on the EB schedule change was posted last week. There is already a thread on the topic: Empire Builder to resume normal schedule on January 12, 2015.

 

[Phil S]

8(29) and 7(29) are both now running about 3 hrs late. Both lost essentially all the time in the same BNSF black hole in E Montana. Yes, a few Builders ran "on time" on the current schedule over the last couple of weeks but most have been running late even given reduced freight traffic over the holidays. So I find it very hard to believe that we'll see only 70-90 minute delays after going back to the old schedule.

Is the idea to push the dispatchers a little harder and get publicity for how late the Builders are running? If not, then what's the advantage in going back to the old schedule when the rrs can't even meet the current one? I'm not seeing something here.

 

[neroden]

Well, it seems to be hard to get agreement from everyone involved for schedule changes, so they only happen occasionally, and usually in a synchronized fashion (all with the new January 12 timetable, for example). If the train is expected to start running on time in (for instance) March, Amtrak might have decided to make the schedule change in January. This is mere speculation.

 

[Guest]

This so-called schedule change or "improvement" is a big zero.

BUT -- having the trains stop at GFK, whatever stations GFK-Minot -- is good.

Beats having bus transfers to those northern ND stations -- but -- the schedule has NOT been changed, not been improved. NOT.

What I've seen is -- BNSF has built two new sidings on the line Fargo-Grand Forks. Good. Some of the worst delays for the EB have happened on that sorry ancient flood-plain riverbottom stretch.

The line GFK - MOT may have been improved a bit -- gota get those Bakken explosive tankers to Duluth - he he har har

BUT -- for passengers on the EB -- there's a bit better connection to Devil's Lake etc

And zero help for on-time performace oveall.

NBD

 

[afigg]

8(29) and 7(29) are both now running about 3 hrs late. Both lost essentially all the time in the same BNSF black hole in E Montana. Yes, a few Builders ran "on time" on the current schedule over the last couple of weeks but most have been running late even given reduced freight traffic over the holidays. So I find it very hard to believe that we'll see only 70-90 minute delays after going back to the old schedule.

Is the idea to push the dispatchers a little harder and get publicity for how late the Builders are running? If not, then what's the advantage in going back to the old schedule when the rrs can't even meet the current one? I'm not seeing something here.

Major delays for a couple of days does not yet make for a trend. Could be weather related, perhaps on the WA end or equipment issues. #8(12/28), for example, departed SEA 2 hours and 24 minutes late.
To put the recent EB runs in perspective, here are the Status Map Archive Database results for December 10 to 30.

History for Amtrak 8 at CHI
Origin Date	Sch AR	Act AR	Comments	Service Disruption	Cancellations
12/28/2014	12/30/2014 3:55 PM	7:15PM	Arrived: 3 hours, 20 minutes late.		
12/27/2014	12/29/2014 3:55 PM	6:15PM	Arrived: 2 hours, 20 minutes late.		
12/26/2014	12/28/2014 3:55 PM	4:40PM	Arrived: 45 minutes late.		
12/25/2014	12/27/2014 3:55 PM	3:44PM	Arrived: 11 minutes early.		
12/24/2014	12/26/2014 3:55 PM		CT		
12/23/2014	12/25/2014 3:55 PM	3:35PM	Arrived: 20 minutes early.		
12/22/2014	12/24/2014 3:55 PM	3:38PM	Arrived: 17 minutes early.		
12/21/2014	12/23/2014 3:55 PM	7:17PM	Arrived: 3 hours, 22 minutes late.		
12/20/2014	12/22/2014 3:55 PM	7:57PM	Arrived: 4 hours, 2 minutes late.		
12/19/2014	12/21/2014 3:55 PM	3:30PM	Arrived: 25 minutes early.		
12/18/2014	12/20/2014 3:55 PM	3:39PM	Arrived: 16 minutes early.		
12/17/2014	12/19/2014 3:55 PM	3:42PM	Arrived: 13 minutes early.		
12/16/2014	12/18/2014 3:55 PM	5:36PM	Arrived: 1 hour, 41 minutes late.		
12/15/2014	12/17/2014 3:55 PM	4:28PM	Arrived: 33 minutes late.		
12/14/2014	12/16/2014 3:55 PM	5:00PM	Arrived: 1 hour and 5 minutes late.		
12/13/2014	12/15/2014 3:55 PM	3:38PM	Arrived: 17 minutes early.		
12/12/2014	12/14/2014 3:55 PM	3:30PM	Arrived: 25 minutes early.		
12/11/2014	12/13/2014 3:55 PM	3:28PM	Arrived: 27 minutes early.		
12/10/2014	12/12/2014 3:55 PM	3:59PM	Arrived: 4 minutes late.		
12/09/2014	12/11/2014 3:55 PM	3:43PM	Arrived: 12 minutes early.		
12/08/2014	12/10/2014 3:55 PM	4:38PM	Arrived: 43 minutes late.

History for Amtrak 7 at SEA
Origin Date	Sch AR	Act AR	Comments	Service Disruption	Cancellations
12/28/2014	12/30/2014 11:55 AM	11:35AM	Arrived: 20 minutes early.		
12/27/2014	12/29/2014 11:55 AM	3:41PM	Arrived: 3 hours, 46 minutes late.		
12/26/2014	12/28/2014 11:55 AM		PT	SD	(Mudslide I expect, Arrived LWA 41 minutes late)
12/25/2014	12/27/2014 11:55 AM	11:45AM	Arrived: 10 minutes early.		
12/24/2014	12/26/2014 11:55 AM		PT		(Mudslide I expect, Arrived EVR 33 minutes late)
12/23/2014	12/25/2014 11:55 AM	11:15AM	Arrived: 40 minutes early.		
12/22/2014	12/24/2014 11:55 AM	11:17AM	Arrived: 38 minutes early.		
12/21/2014	12/23/2014 11:55 AM	11:34AM	Arrived: 21 minutes early.		
12/20/2014	12/22/2014 11:55 AM	11:24AM	Arrived: 31 minutes early.		
12/19/2014	12/21/2014 11:55 AM	11:48AM	Arrived: 7 minutes early.		
12/18/2014	12/20/2014 11:55 AM	12:02PM	Arrived: 7 minutes late.		
12/17/2014	12/19/2014 11:55 AM	2:29PM	Arrived: 2 hours, 34 minutes late.		
12/16/2014	12/18/2014 11:55 AM	11:21AM	Arrived: 34 minutes early.		
12/15/2014	12/17/2014 11:55 AM	3:34PM	Arrived: 3 hours and 39 minutes late.		
12/14/2014	12/16/2014 11:55 AM	3:15PM	Arrived: 3 hours and 20 minutes late.		
12/13/2014	12/15/2014 11:55 AM	1:44PM	Arrived: 1 hour and 49 minutes late.		
12/12/2014	12/14/2014 11:55 AM	4:25PM	Arrived: 4 hours and 30 minutes late.		
12/11/2014	12/13/2014 11:55 AM	12:49PM	Arrived: 54 minutes late.		
12/10/2014	12/12/2014 11:55 AM	12:40PM	Arrived: 45 minutes late.		
12/09/2014	12/11/2014 11:55 AM	11:44AM	Arrived: 11 minutes early.		
12/08/2014	12/10/2014 11:55 AM	11:22AM	Arrived: 33 minutes early.

 

[yarrow]

does this mean the extra trainset will be pulled from sea/pdx? if so, it could be deja vu all over again

 

[Phil S]

8(29) and 7(29) are both now running about 3 hrs late. Both lost essentially all the time in the same BNSF black hole in E Montana. Yes, a few Builders ran "on time" on the current schedule over the last couple of weeks but most have been running late even given reduced freight traffic over the holidays. So I find it very hard to believe that we'll see only 70-90 minute delays after going back to the old schedule.

Is the idea to push the dispatchers a little harder and get publicity for how late the Builders are running? If not, then what's the advantage in going back to the old schedule when the rrs can't even meet the current one? I'm not seeing something here.

Major delays for a couple of days does not yet make for a trend. Could be weather related, perhaps on the WA end or equipment issues. #8(12/28), for example, departed SEA 2 hours and 24 minutes late.
To put the recent EB runs in perspective, here are the Status Map Archive Database results for December 10 to 30.

Yup, one day doesn't make a trend. So I'm glad you put together the month's data. Maybe there were enough on-time and early arrivals to justify going back to the old schedule. That way if trains are running well, they don't have to sit waiting for their scheduled departure times. The problem is there are still plenty of 3 hr late trains, which means they'll become 6 hr late trains under the Jan 12 new (old) schedule. And too many people haven't yet bought a smart-phone that allows them to check the train status at a glance. We'll see what happens.

FWIW #7 & 8 survived the worst of the many black holes and are both running <1 hr late. But today is likely one of the year's slowest for freight.

 

[montana mike]

Amtrak wants to pull the extra trainset from the EB route, but no final decision made yet. My BNSF guy here locally again said to expect "modest delays" (1-2 hours) in both directions once the old schedule is put back into place (btw-both #7's today are 1-2 hours behind, while the #8's ar on schedule). He reiterated that the summer schedule is up in the air due to another very busy construction season planned for the Hi-Line, PLUS BNSF is forecasting a further increase in energy traffic for all of 2015.

 

[D.P. Roberts]

Is Amtrak going to reestablish connections between the EB and other trains at some point? Looking at various bookings for this summer show the new (old) times, but none of the old connections have been restored (i.e. train 8 to train 30).

 

[neroden]

Amtrak wants to pull the extra trainset from the EB route, but no final decision made yet. My BNSF guy here locally again said to expect "modest delays" (1-2 hours) in both directions once the old schedule is put back into place (btw-both #7's today are 1-2 hours behind, while the #8's ar on schedule). He reiterated that the summer schedule is up in the air due to another very busy construction season planned for the Hi-Line, PLUS BNSF is forecasting a further increase in energy traffic for all of 2015.

Boy. Geeez, I don't think much of BNSF traffic forecasters.

I follow the energy markets. There's a bunch of pretty complicated stuff going on right now, some of which is pushing one way on price or volume of a given fuel, some of which is pushing the other way. One scenario is lowered crude oil volumes from fracking & oil sands in 2015 (conserving pumping rates during periods of low prices); and probably high volumes again in 2016 or 2017. That would work out nicely for BNSF if they can take advantage of it.

An alternative scenario involves extremely high volumes in 2015 due to heavily-leveraged frackers who require cash flow (even at low or zero profit margins) to pay off their loans, but *that* scenario involves a wave of fracker bankruptcies in late 2015 / 2016, a major market shakeout and a complete crash in production in 2017 or 2018. That would work out poorly for BNSF; in this scenario, BNSF would be well advised to defer oil shipments to 2016 and accelerate the inevitable bankruptcies.

 

[montana mike]

gloom and doom!!!! amazing

 

[zephyr17]

I was on 7(29) and we were on time until Minot. Ultimately 3 hours late into Everett, and that was on the "extended" schedule.