Empire Builder to resume normal schedule on January 12, 2015

[montana mike]

I asked my local BNSF folks today again about the decision to go back to the original schedule. They said BNSF has committed to "try" to do better, BUT that the forecasted traffic load for 2015 on the Hi-Line is 12-13% higher than 2014. And that is assuming a "pause" in the energy train boom for 6-9 months (our own EIA states the price of a barrel of oil will be back to around $85 by the latter half of 2015 btw).

I personally am hoping to see at least decent time keeping with perhaps 1-2 hour delays the norm and maybe an "on-time" arrival at either end of the journey a couple times a week. I would hope Amtrak keeps the extra train set on the EB route though. As we saw time and time again, once the incoming #7 arrives 4+ hours late in SEA/PDX the delays just snowball to the point that sometimes Amtrak had to annul subsequent trains to just catch up. That doesn't help anyone. Looking at the huge drop in passengers on the EB because of this mess (according to my WFH contact a 27% drop on pax unload and offload here) I do believe Joe B and the other top brass recognize good timekeeping is essential to increasing passenger loads.

 

[neroden]

I asked my local BNSF folks today again about the decision to go back to the original schedule. They said BNSF has committed to "try" to do better, BUT that the forecasted traffic load for 2015 on the Hi-Line is 12-13% higher than 2014. And that is assuming a "pause" in the energy train boom for 6-9 months (our own EIA states the price of a barrel of oil will be back to around $85 by the latter half of 2015 btw).

That seems a little fast. I know the price is going to gyrate back up, but the Deutsche Bank estimates predicted that the cycles would be a bit longer than that.
(By way of contrast, Alaska's government, which depends on high oil prices, is predicting that the prices won't come back up until 2017. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/alaska-bill-walker-oil-price-crash-113912.html)

Anyway, BNSF is forecasting high traffic for the summer *despite* a 9-month pause in the oil boom. That's *very* interesting, and makes me respect the forecasters more. That implies that there's *other* traffic which is going to boom.

Did they ever manage to finish moving last year's harvest? Next year's will probably be huge too.

And with the economy *finally* recovering noticeably, the growing container traffic from China should be big business as well.

 

[montana mike]

BNSF usually is able to move perhaps 30-40% of the harvest during the Fall, with significant movement again in the Spring thru about half of the summer each year. Intermodal is going gangbusters. In fact there have been days when they have had to turn down some of this type of freight--just not enough equipment and crews to handle the demand. BNSf has invested heavily in both new equipment and crews this year, so more will be "on the road" in 2015 and beyond.

The EIA predicted about 5 weeks ago an average price of WTI at $62.50/bbl for 2015, which would mean given today's pricing just over $50/bbl, that the price would necessarily need to rise to the mid $70's by the last half of 2015 to achieve that value. Their spokesperson offered a more bullish assessment of oil pricing just days ago. My Bakken friends say they are still making money at $50/bbl and have only slowed down development modestly (about 20% less $$ for 2015). Although I must admit a 20% drop will affect at least some oil patch people. Saudi Arabia is the key worldwide. They are the world's largest producer and the low cost country, so this is as much about what they decide to do as it is with the huge increase in US production. On one hand they are loathe to bow to the Iranian and Venezuelan factions in OPEC, who want to greatly curtail supply to get prices back up, but on the other hand the Saudi's do indeed recognize the real threat to them that the American "miracle" in oil and NG has on their future and the world's energy supplies. A balancing act to be sure. I believe their attitude is: If a few dictators go down the drain as a result of "cheap oil" so-be-it.....

 

[neroden]

Saudi Arabia is the key worldwide. They are the world's largest producer and the low cost country, so this is as much about what they decide to do as it is with the huge increase in US production. On one hand they are loathe to bow to the Iranian and Venezuelan factions in OPEC, who want to greatly curtail supply to get prices back up, but on the other hand the Saudi's do indeed recognize the real threat to them that the American "miracle" in oil and NG has on their future and the world's energy supplies.

I think *both* of these reasons cause the Saudis to favor cheap oil and high production. They want to shake their competitors out of the market, whether the competitors are Iran, Venezuela, Russia, or the US frackers, or the Canadian tar sands people.

They also don't want people to switch from oil to alternatives (which *is happening already*), which means again they would favor cheap oil.

At some point, the growth in demand (or the shutdown of high-priced production) is likely to outpace their machinations and the price will go back up, but the Saudis seem to have every incentive to keep high production and low prices.

 

[A. Earl Barrel]

Lower oil prices are with us for a variety of reasons, a strong US Dollar and more production in the US than ever before, among them.

Internationally the lower prices have a lot to do with present world economic and political conditions. Europe and Asia's economies are not doing well right now and the common belief among economic observers is that all that is preventing a world economic downturn is the US consumer. Lower oil prices will give Americans more disposable income. In terms of global politics, lower oil prices severely punish Putin's ability to rearm Russia and expand its influence. It also severely hurts another long time US advisary - Venezuela - whose economy was already in trouble before the drop in crude prices. Whether the Obama Administration did something to help make this happen (or not) is very open to debate (and this is not the place to discuss that), but lower oil prices have certainly put us in a better strategic place than we were before the lower oil prices.

As for the world supply of oil, there is still enough in the ground to make sure we totally destroy the planet before we run out, if the past is any indication. For example, back in the 1930s there were predictions that the world would run out of oil in the 1950s.

 

[aurbo]

The westbound EB will be facing major headwinds going through North Dakota. They will be reversing the directional traffic flow and send eastbound freights to Fargo Via Devils Lake/Grand Forks. Seeing the heavy flow of overnight traffic that flows on those subdivisions, there might be some trouble.

 

[neroden]

As for the world supply of oil, there is still enough in the ground to make sure we totally destroy the planet before we run out, if the past is any indication. For example, back in the 1930s there were predictions that the world would run out of oil in the 1950s.

No, there weren't. There were predictions that the continental US would hit peak production of conventional oil.
Which the US did, pretty much on schedule.

There's far more than enough *coal* in the ground to totally destroy the ecosystem before we run out, of course. (The planet will be fine, the question is whether it'll be possible for humans to survive.)

 

[Nanook]

Whitefish seems happy... http://missoulian.com/news/local/c7316e39-9821-5c3e-b2c5-b785cefe12a1.html

WHITEFISH – This is a great place to visit, but – for the tens of thousands who arrive and depart by train – for the past several months it’s been an inconvenient one.

Whether they come to ski at Whitefish Mountain Resort or hike in Glacier National Park, middle-of-the-night arrivals and departures have put a significant dent on the number of people who use Amtrak to get to and from the Flathead Valley.

Those times change Tuesday, when Amtrak’s Empire Builder returns to its regular schedule.

They’re so excited, Whitefish and Amtrak officials will be on hand at the historic depot here to welcome eastbound passengers due in at 7:26 a.m., rather than the 4:26 a.m. time Amtrak has been depositing them at since April.

Running the passenger trains on time has been problematic since the Bakken oil field boom congested the BNSF Railway tracks Amtrak uses in North Dakota with freight trains.

All it took to return to the traditional schedule was $1 billion.

 

[neroden]

I take it the officials are showing up for the eastbound because they know the westbound will still be running late. It'll be a bit embarassing if the eastbound is also late.

 

[Steve Manfred]

Today (Mon. Jan. 12) I called Amtrak about the trip I booked back in September, an AGR 2-zones trip starting Feb. 7 for the Empire Builder (#27) connecting to the Coast Starlight (#11), with Los Angeles my ultimate destination. At the time it was a guaranteed connection, and I was told that as of right now, it still is. The agent I talked to asked around and found a memo and someone in the scheduling department that both said they're going to watch what's going on with the EB returning to the old schedule this week and then next week make a determination as to whether or not they can restore this and other broken Empire Builder connections. If the break is left there, I'll hear from them next week by phone.

Looking at the tracker just now, it's not off to a good start as today's westbound is 5 hours down just getting out of Chicago again. Must be the cold snap striking again. Temps are supposed to warm as the week goes on though.

 

[Guest Out West]

I take it the officials are showing up for the eastbound because they know the westbound will still be running late. It'll be a bit embarassing if the eastbound is also late.

#8 arrived into Whitefish 23 minutes...

...EARLY!

There was/is to be a 'celebration' in Shelby today meeting #7, but it is 8H, 17 Min down into Minot. :help:

 

[neroden]

Yay for early arrivals!

 

[montana mike]

Meanwhile #7 is 9 hours late in eastern MT today. Lost 5 hours at Glenview--good grief!