CS to EB no longer bookable after April 1

[gn2276]

The Parlour car comming off is still a few years off, but the trouble is that these cars are old and when major parts fail they have to be built, you can not just buy the part and that makes them expensive to run.

 

[neroden]

Going into the summer season, it's probably revenue-maximizing to(1) isolate the Empire Builder and prohibit connections to it

(2) Put the cars from the "sixth trainset" onto trains which are running more-or-less on time

I think this logic has already been debunked by several posters. Pulling the sixth trainset make connections at PDX more secure.

You might argue, long term revenue-maximizing-wise, that newbies might get disgruntled to find a longer than planned layover in PDX. But I suspect that forcing passengers for no apparent reason to stay overnight in Portland in order to guarantee the connection would be more revenue deadening. Besides by the time the newbie got to Montana or ND they would have forgotten the PDX delay.

I'm making the assumption that revenue per passenger on the EB will be severely depressed (20% - 50%) by the constant delays in MT and ND -- and that revenue on other routes won't be. I could be wrong. If I'm right, then you want to allocate those cars for top-priced tickets on the CZ or CS, not for lower-priced tickets on the EB. Frankly, given the horrible OTP -- so bad that businesses along the line who used to send customers by Amtrak are talking about chartering buses -- arguably the only reason to run the EB right now is to reserve the track slots for 2015. (Which is a very valuable reason, certainly.)

 

[montana mike]

Interestingly, our local travel agency says many of their summer Glacier National Park trips on the EBs are sold out--despite the fact that the clients were warned about the horrendous performance of the Builders. She has been telling people that they should expect 3-6 hour delays in their arrival times at the various GNP stations. While people are disappointed in this, she told me that only a minority decided against the train trip vs air.

I am still concerned that Amtrak is going to pull the plug on the extra train set. Our local station guy says this has been a topic of conversation internally at Amtrak over the past several weeks and he said this would indeed mean the de facto end to daily service (he was told "if" they did this the EBs would indeed run only 3 days each week) and a huge number of cancellations for the summer. He said the only factor on favor of keeping this extra train set are the reservations already in place (he too said they needed to pull the plug 3 months ago on this train set, not now). The bookings are so strong that Amtrak would need to cancel literally thousands of reservations now and disrupt the plans of so many people (and the attendant other aspects of their trips) that pulling the extra train set may end up being a massive PR and logistical disaster for them at this point. But that has never stopped Amtrak from doing the unthinkable in the past I guess. What a mess indeed......

 

[yarrow]

Interestingly, our local travel agency says many of their summer Glacier National Park trips on the EBs are sold out--despite the fact that the clients were warned about the horrendous performance of the Builders. She has been telling people that they should expect 3-6 hour delays in their arrival times at the various GNP stations. While people are disappointed in this, she told me that only a minority decided against the train trip vs air.

I am still concerned that Amtrak is going to pull the plug on the extra train set. Our local station guy says this has been a topic of conversation internally at Amtrak over the past several weeks and he said this would indeed mean the de facto end to daily service (he was told "if" they did this the EBs would indeed run only 3 days each week) and a huge number of cancellations for the summer. He said the only factor on favor of keeping this extra train set are the reservations already in place (he too said they needed to pull the plug 3 months ago on this train set, not now). The bookings are so strong that Amtrak would need to cancel literally thousands of reservations now and disrupt the plans of so many people (and the attendant other aspects of their trips) that pulling the extra train set may end up being a massive PR and logistical disaster for them at this point. But that has never stopped Amtrak from doing the unthinkable in the past I guess. What a mess indeed......

since it seems a decision on how they are going to proceed has been made why can't those at amtrak who made the decision let us know?

 

[montana mike]

As the stationmaster in WFH told me, "I guess we will have to wait until around the first of April to find out what is going on". If I was a betting person (which I am not) I would say the status quo will remain, just because of all of the bookings for the summer already in place. But, assuming the BNSF issues remain (as they are supposed to do for at least another several years), we might indeed see a shift to a 3 day a week train beginning in 2015 or even this Fall when the demand is much lower-commanding higher fares for those days it does run.

 

[Blackwolf]

The sound of making yet another of Amtrak's trains a three-a-week route makes me cringe. Lets say they do go down that path and the Empire Builder becomes the Sunset Limited North. How much would you want to bet the moment Amtrak wishes to go back to a daily train, BNSF pulls a Union Pacific and says "that'll be $700+ Million." The capacity of the route would have increased, but the amount of freight would have also have risen in the same amount of time. BNSF could simply point and say "we don't have room for a re-established daily train" and use that as their cause for more money. Or, just flat-out refuse to host Amtrak at all.

Cue the "Slippery Slope" warning signs. :help:

 

[Devil's Advocate]

The sound of making yet another of Amtrak's trains a three-a-week route makes me cringe. Lets say they do go down that path and the Empire Builder becomes the Sunset Limited North. How much would you want to bet the moment Amtrak wishes to go back to a daily train, BNSF pulls a Union Pacific and says "that'll be $700+ Million." The capacity of the route would have increased, but the amount of freight would have also have risen in the same amount of time. BNSF could simply point and say "we don't have room for a re-established daily train" and use that as their cause for more money. Or, just flat-out refuse to host Amtrak at all. Cue the "Slippery Slope" warning signs. :help:

On the plus side BNSF and the House of Representatives will have less to complain about once the EB route is reduced or discontinued. The consensus seems to be that appeasement should be Amtrak's top priority in 2014. Otherwise they might get caught running a railroad without unanimous support and I doubt anyone wants to see that happen.

 

[Trogdor]

The sound of making yet another of Amtrak's trains a three-a-week route makes me cringe. Lets say they do go down that path and the Empire Builder becomes the Sunset Limited North. How much would you want to bet the moment Amtrak wishes to go back to a daily train, BNSF pulls a Union Pacific and says "that'll be $700+ Million." The capacity of the route would have increased, but the amount of freight would have also have risen in the same amount of time. BNSF could simply point and say "we don't have room for a re-established daily train" and use that as their cause for more money. Or, just flat-out refuse to host Amtrak at all.

The two situations are not related at all.

In the case of the UP/Sunset, it was a service expansion and Amtrak did not have any contractual agreement with UP regarding its operation.

If Amtrak were to temporarily reduce service on the Empire Builder, they'd make damn sure that all written agreements between them and BNSF explicitly reserve Amtrak's right to resume daily service. Amtrak has learned a lot in the past few years (basically, since PRIIA) about how the freight railroads operate. That's one of the reasons it takes so damn long to get any schedule change done anymore. Everything has to be done in excruciating detail to make sure Amtrak is protected, contractually, from the host railroad trying to screw them out of stuff (and vice versa). Nowadays, whenever any train's schedule is extended to accommodate delays or trackwork, a specific "get well program" is written in place to make sure that time can come out of the schedule over a given period. A few years ago, that wasn't the case (which is why the Sunset Limited still has several extra hours in its schedule, even though its OTP has vastly improved and the train frequently has to kill a couple of hours enroute because its early, and it still gets to the endpoint early).

In an ideal world, Amtrak and the hosts would be a bit more nimble and more flexible about this stuff. But PRIIA basically antagonized the freight railroads, and since then they've done everything in their legal power to fight back. The result is what you see here.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

If Amtrak were to temporarily reduce service on the Empire Builder, they'd make damn sure that all written agreements between them and BNSF explicitly reserve Amtrak's right to resume daily service.

Why would BNSF bother signing another contract? They can already push the Empire Builder around as much as they want without fear of serious penalty. Best to leave the current contract in place and decline any amendments.

In an ideal world, Amtrak and the hosts would be a bit more nimble and more flexible about this stuff.

In your view of an "ideal world" we'd still be stuck with Amtrak running on freight tracks? No wonder the old guard is so easy to please. Their best case scenario has more holes than swiss cheese.

But PRIIA basically antagonized the freight railroads, and since then they've done everything in their legal power to fight back. The result is what you see here.

In other words Goliath is tired of being smacked around by David.

 

[neroden]

But PRIIA basically antagonized the freight railroads,

Arrant nonsense. The Class I freights were being antagonistic well before PRIIA. PRIIA was partly passed because of their flagrantly illegal and offensive behavior.
Some say that Warrington's express freight program antagonized the Class Is, which seems more plausible.

But based on the 40-year record of bad OTP, I would say that the Class Is started with a bad attitude.

and since then they've done everything in their legal power to fight back. The result is what you see here.

If they maintain a bad attitude, they will eventually need to be crushed by re-regulation. Congress is actually considering this. The class I management don't seem to know which side their bread is buttered on.

 

[neroden]

At the moment, because of the weather conditions, BNSF has a plausible excuse for the poor OTP. If BNSF promptly starts doing massive amounts of track work, as they seem to be planning to, BNSF will still have a plausible excuse for the poor OTP. If the OTP remains awful without weather or track work (and I think BNSF is better than that).... *then* Amtrak would be in a very good position to sue BNSF the way Amtrak sued UP several years ago. Since that lawsuit, UP OTP has been much better.

In fact, though, CP is likely to be the target of the next Amtrak lawsuit or STB filing. Why? E. Hunter Harrison. His illegal policies got CN targeted, and now he's at CP. He's an old dog and he's not going to learn new tricks.

 

[andersone]

With an August ten day trip to Glacier already booked I can see me playing EB roulette,,,, which one will they cancel? Maybe get Vegas to take some odds,,,,,, I am not in control,, and although this trip has been planned for a long time, what will happen will happen,,,, my guess they will leave things alone through the end of the summer,,, then all hell cold break loose,,, if not then i will have one hell of a lot to cash to spend,,,,,,

 

[PaulM]

Going into the summer season, it's probably revenue-maximizing to(1) isolate the Empire Builder and prohibit connections to it

(2) Put the cars from the "sixth trainset" onto trains which are running more-or-less on time

I think this logic has already been debunked by several posters. Pulling the sixth trainset make connections at PDX more secure.

You might argue, long term revenue-maximizing-wise, that newbies might get disgruntled to find a longer than planned layover in PDX. But I suspect that forcing passengers for no apparent reason to stay overnight in Portland in order to guarantee the connection would be more revenue deadening. Besides by the time the newbie got to Montana or ND they would have forgotten the PDX delay.

I'm making the assumption that revenue per passenger on the EB will be severely depressed (20% - 50%) by the constant delays in MT and ND -- and that revenue on other routes won't be. I could be wrong. If I'm right, then you want to allocate those cars for top-priced tickets on the CZ or CS, not for lower-priced tickets on the EB. Frankly, given the horrible OTP -- so bad that businesses along the line who used to send customers by Amtrak are talking about chartering buses -- arguably the only reason to run the EB right now is to reserve the track slots for 2015. (Which is a very valuable reason, certainly.)

I agree with this logic, which I'll summarize as if ridership on the EB has plummeted, or is expected to, then the extra set should be pulled. But I thought your post I responded to was trying to provide a rational for the cutting of the CS to EB connection, which was the subject of the thread, and which I still find bewildering.

 

[PaulM]

If they maintain a bad attitude, they will eventually need to be crushed by re-regulation. Congress is actually considering this. The class I management don't seem to know which side their bread is buttered on.

It may be my imagination, but it often seemed to me that the sad state of railroads starting in the mid 60's and lasting until what, the 80's, 90's was due in large part due to a hatred of railroads dating back to the robber baron era and continuing as long as they had a transportation monopoly. As soon as the monopoly was broken, the populace took their revenge with regulation. It was only when most RR's were on their death bed that the industry deregulated.

Comments by other old-timers?

 

[neroden]

If they maintain a bad attitude, they will eventually need to be crushed by re-regulation. Congress is actually considering this. The class I management don't seem to know which side their bread is buttered on.

It may be my imagination, but it often seemed to me that the sad state of railroads starting in the mid 60's and lasting until what, the 80's, 90's was due in large part due to a hatred of railroads dating back to the robber baron era and continuing as long as they had a transportation monopoly. As soon as the monopoly was broken, the populace took their revenge with regulation. It was only when most RR's were on their death bed that the industry deregulated.

Comments by other old-timers?

I'm not sure anyone is old-timer enough to remember the regulation era of the late 19th century (!!!!) but this does add up with what I've read in books.
The people I've talked to only remember back as far as the 1920s and 1930s, by which time the railroad regulation scheme had been established for decades and was simply considered "normal".

This is one problem with private monopolies; they create well-justified public hatred, which then usually leads to overreaction.

 

[neroden]

I agree with this logic, which I'll summarize as if ridership on the EB has plummeted, or is expected to, then the extra set should be pulled. But I thought your post I responded to was trying to provide a rational for the cutting of the CS to EB connection, which was the subject of the thread, and which I still find bewildering.

Oh. I was thinking that if as a result of reassinging the sixth set, the connection starts being dozens of hours late on a regular basis, it stops making sense to offer the connection; it will only mislead people.

 

[montana mike]

Well, reservations haven't plummeted for this summer, so I am sure Amtrak has a big dilemma. Do they pull the plug on a train that is likely to be sold out most of the trips from June thru September, or do they keep the status quo on the train sets?

 

[Jim]

If they are that tight on equipment to be looking at removing the 6th set and possibly eliminate over half the frequencies over the summer, would it be smarter or practical to remove a PDX coach and a SEA sleeper to gain an additional set and avoid pulling equipment from other routes or cutting to 3X/ week?

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

Sorry no facts to be had here.

Only you can not book from the CS to the EB after April 2nd.

Nobody knows anything, it could be as simple as a computer error.

 

[Just-Thinking-51]

It is reported on trainorders that a new timetable for the east bound Empire Builder is in the works that will break the connection from the North bound Coast Starlight. :angry2:

The posting is by Gene Poole, so it pretty high level of confidence.

 

[jebr]

It is reported on trainorders that a new timetable for the east bound Empire Builder is in the works that will break the connection from the North bound Coast Starlight. :angry2:

The posting is by Gene Poole, so it pretty high level of confidence.

Will it restore connections to the trains in Chicago? If so, it'd be a decent tradeoff and one that I would approve of (assuming Amtrak has a clause to go back to the old schedule at a defined point in time.)

 

[montana mike]

Given the consistent 4-6 hour delays in arriving at CHI over the past many months (and again today #8 is over 5 hours behind) Amtrak would need to give #8 at least a 4 hour "cushion" to make that happen. Not sure that will be in the cards, but one never knows. I just do not see any improvements in this performance in the foreseeable future--This is backed up by BNSF people who are in the trenches saying the EBs will be doing "well" to be only 4 hours late into CHI this summer.

 

[EB_OBS]

As the stationmaster in WFH told me, "I guess we will have to wait until around the first of April to find out what is going on". If I was a betting person (which I am not) I would say the status quo will remain, just because of all of the bookings for the summer already in place. But, assuming the BNSF issues remain (as they are supposed to do for at least another several years), we might indeed see a shift to a 3 day a week train beginning in 2015 or even this Fall when the demand is much lower-commanding higher fares for those days it does run.

As far as I have heard or not heard, there aren't any immediate plans to pull the sixth train set off the Empire Builder. Now with peak-season approaching for all LD trains in the system, this could obviously change. As to whether or not losing the extra train set would mean changing the EB schedule to tri-weekly or reducing it's frequency in any way, I have not heard any talk of this, nor does it make sense. The Empire Builder is still expected to be pretty much full for the upcoming summer months.

If and/or when the extra train set is taken off, then Amtrak will simply return to busing the very late #7 and #27 trains between SPK, SEA & PDX, in order to facilitate an on-time departure of #8 from SPK. The only reason any trip would be cancelled entirely would be for the same reasons they are anyway. When there are just multiple delays on top of multiple delays piled upon with derailments and other disasters that take longer than 24 hours to clean up. Just like happens occasionally anyway.

If I hear anything different, you all will be first on my list to tell.

 

[EB_OBS]

As to the reason for breaking the CS to EB connections in Portland, the only thing I know is that the UPRR has an extensive bridge replacement plan and work going on throughout the month of April. This is causing busing between EUG and PDX and multi-hour delays. I've tried to get a solid reason for the break and this is all I could find out.

 

[montana mike]

I just look at what happened before the extra train set last year. The Empire Builders got so far behind Amtrak did indeed at one point cancel trains in order to do a complete "reset". Just looking at the past 30 days for example, the late arrivals in SEA and PDX would have resulted in 2-3 hour delays in departures from those two stations on many days, which, when the additional 4-6 hour MT and ND delays are added into the equation, the EB's would be arriving in CHI either side of midnight on many nights, which in turn would likely mean delayed departures (as was the case last year) from CHI the following day, and this would just get worse and worse after only perhaps a week or so of this type of operational chaos. On the plus side SPK would then become the de facto "terminus" for many of the west bound Builders.

No easy answers here at all........