EB delays decreasing? trackwork getting completed?
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I am also curious, since we're leaving from PDX on Dec 9, and we have a connection to make in CHI. Would love to know anyone's best guess...
NW cannonball
Conductor
No way to tell.
Track work winding down. Montana Mike probably has better info.
As for freight traffic -
Grain shipments probably winding down soon. But not to zero.
Shale oil shipments unlikely to wind down for a few years at least. Might even keep growing over the winter?
Intermodal -- "possibly" less after the big holiday buying season over? (I'm imagining that a significant part of intermodal is megatons of Asian bigscreens and misc "gift type things" going to MSP and CHI and "points east", could be totally wrong about that)
Advice -- Don't rely on eastbound EB connection in CHI. Have a Plan B. Even through the winter.
Track work winding down. Montana Mike probably has better info.
As for freight traffic -
Grain shipments probably winding down soon. But not to zero.
Shale oil shipments unlikely to wind down for a few years at least. Might even keep growing over the winter?
Intermodal -- "possibly" less after the big holiday buying season over? (I'm imagining that a significant part of intermodal is megatons of Asian bigscreens and misc "gift type things" going to MSP and CHI and "points east", could be totally wrong about that)
Advice -- Don't rely on eastbound EB connection in CHI. Have a Plan B. Even through the winter.
montana mike
Conductor
Good timing on your question. I had just bugged my BNSF contact, since I had noticed the eastbound EB's still continue to struggle (3-4 hour delays each day for the past week or so). The 2013 construction work is supposed to be wrapped up by some time next week, BUT, he pointed out that almost all of the delays now from eastern MT thru ND are traffic related (except for the usual loss of 30-60 minutes from Devils Lake to Fargo where slow orders remain in effect, and will likely continue to be in place all winter). He said the grain shipments will continue well into the last part of the calendar year and the oil trains of course will not lessen due to the winter. Intermodal keeps increasing as well.
Note on oil shipments for the long haul. BNSF has ordered thousands of new cars, some of which don't even get delivered until the 2015-17 timeframe. They expect their traffic load to peak around 2020, stay steady for 30-40 years, then gradually and slowly decrease, so I would not even consider slower energy traffic as an option for at least a generation. Unless the Keystone pipeline gets built-but the BNSF people all have told me they do not think that will ever happen.
He was a little surprised that the Empire Builders going east were still running so late until he looked closely at the traffic demands and patterns. He said to expect 2+ hour arrival delays eastbound into CHI for the foreseeable future, or at least thru November. As long as your connection is after 8 PM you should have a good chance of making it, anything less than that may be problematic. I concur with NW Cannonball on having a Plan B for your connection in CHI.
Note on oil shipments for the long haul. BNSF has ordered thousands of new cars, some of which don't even get delivered until the 2015-17 timeframe. They expect their traffic load to peak around 2020, stay steady for 30-40 years, then gradually and slowly decrease, so I would not even consider slower energy traffic as an option for at least a generation. Unless the Keystone pipeline gets built-but the BNSF people all have told me they do not think that will ever happen.
He was a little surprised that the Empire Builders going east were still running so late until he looked closely at the traffic demands and patterns. He said to expect 2+ hour arrival delays eastbound into CHI for the foreseeable future, or at least thru November. As long as your connection is after 8 PM you should have a good chance of making it, anything less than that may be problematic. I concur with NW Cannonball on having a Plan B for your connection in CHI.
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Thanks for the info, Mike! They have us booked to connect on a 5:15 Lincoln Service. Plan B is the 7pm Lincoln, and Plan C is dinner with Chicago Nephew and an overnight on Amtrak's dime, leaving on the 7am Lincoln the next morning, ha, ha! We're only going to SPG, and don't need to be there (a couple blocks from the station) till about 11am, so arriving at 10:15 is tight but do-able. We are looking forward to the trip, and ready to make allowances for lateness.
J
jer1721
Guest
I was considering making a connection in Chicago the first week of December to the Capital Limited, something I have done several times before over the years without problem but now it seems impossible. I have been looking at the on-time performance of the Empire Builder for a long time going from Fargo to Chicago and it seems like a lost cause. Seems like I would be better just going west to PDX and catching the Coast Starlight down to San Diego since I really don't have purpose for my trip other than using AGR reward points and vacation time. Does anyone think the Empire Builder could improve eastbound by December or is it better to just assume it will fail?
ScottRu
Service Attendant
This is a topic of considerable interest to me since my better half and I begin a cross-country Amtrak trek from Boston (Lakeshore Limited) to Portland, OR (Empire Builder from Chicago) on Sunday.
I have certainly noted that the delays have become less heroic. Today's Westbound is "only" 2 hours late.
On the other hand... so long as I don't get sent to a bus, and as long as I have good meals provided (including beef stew), it really doesn't make much difference how late we are.
I have certainly noted that the delays have become less heroic. Today's Westbound is "only" 2 hours late.
On the other hand... so long as I don't get sent to a bus, and as long as I have good meals provided (including beef stew), it really doesn't make much difference how late we are.
montana mike
Conductor
Going Westbound you should have fewer delays due to the timing of the EB thru effected areas and the way the schedule is padded towards the latter part of the trek. Sounds like a fun trip!!!!
mwmnp
Service Attendant
The amount of crude oil being shipped out of North Dakota by rail has increased briskly over the last few weeks as the difference between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude pricing benchmarks has once again increased to greater than $10 per barrel. In short, when WTI trades for a lower price relative to Brent, particularly when the discrepancy is $10 per barrel or larger, a greater share of crude oil can be expected to be shipped by rail. Should the price difference lessen, as happened over the summer, rail would probably once again lose some market share to pipelines, which presently can export up to 583,000 barrels of oil per day out of North Dakota. By comparison, the crude-by-rail facilities collectively can export 865,000 barrels per day. Total oil production for the entire state (not just the Bakken Formation) is currently around 950,000 barrels per day, so there is some excess capacity when both transport modes are considered. This allows the producers to be somewhat flexible in deciding which of the two options to use at any given moment.
Here is an up-to-date chart showing the number of petroleum carloads carried each week by BNSF since August of 2009 as well as the average weekly price difference of WTI and Brent during the same period. The number of petroleum carloads decreased as the price spread got closer to $0 per barrel through the middle of 2013, but has increased sharply as the spread has widened to over $10 per barrel in the last two weeks.
Sources: BNSF Carloads and Federal Reserve Economic Data
Whether or not the Keystone XL pipeline ever gets built is of questionable significance to the export of oil from North Dakota, as the primary purpose of this pipeline has always been for the transport of synthetic crude oil from the oil sands of the McMurray Formation in northeastern Alberta. Nevertheless, a 100,000 barrel per day extension to the Keystone XL has been proposed to carry Bakken crude, presumably in part to gain the support of regional politicians. All told, 100,000 barrels is roughly equivalent to 1 1/3 unit trains of Bakken crude.
In addition, there are already three pipelines exiting North Dakota with larger capacities than the proposed Bakken extension to the Keystone XL would have. Enbridge is also well along in the planning phase of the "Sandpiper" project, a pipeline designed to carry an additional 225,000 barrels of oil per day, or roughly 3 unit trains worth of capacity each day, out of North Dakota by the end of 2016. Detailed plans have been submitted to the applicable regulatory agencies in North Dakota and Minnesota, the two states the pipeline would cross. In fact, the plan for Minnesota was filed just yesterday.
Here is an up-to-date chart showing the number of petroleum carloads carried each week by BNSF since August of 2009 as well as the average weekly price difference of WTI and Brent during the same period. The number of petroleum carloads decreased as the price spread got closer to $0 per barrel through the middle of 2013, but has increased sharply as the spread has widened to over $10 per barrel in the last two weeks.
Sources: BNSF Carloads and Federal Reserve Economic Data
Whether or not the Keystone XL pipeline ever gets built is of questionable significance to the export of oil from North Dakota, as the primary purpose of this pipeline has always been for the transport of synthetic crude oil from the oil sands of the McMurray Formation in northeastern Alberta. Nevertheless, a 100,000 barrel per day extension to the Keystone XL has been proposed to carry Bakken crude, presumably in part to gain the support of regional politicians. All told, 100,000 barrels is roughly equivalent to 1 1/3 unit trains of Bakken crude.
In addition, there are already three pipelines exiting North Dakota with larger capacities than the proposed Bakken extension to the Keystone XL would have. Enbridge is also well along in the planning phase of the "Sandpiper" project, a pipeline designed to carry an additional 225,000 barrels of oil per day, or roughly 3 unit trains worth of capacity each day, out of North Dakota by the end of 2016. Detailed plans have been submitted to the applicable regulatory agencies in North Dakota and Minnesota, the two states the pipeline would cross. In fact, the plan for Minnesota was filed just yesterday.
montana mike
Conductor
A good friend of ours is in the energy biz and he is watching what is happening in Eastern MT right now. The Bakken extends quite a ways into this area and the leases and drilling are just beginning. The folks in Helena are expecting quite a boom in this area within the next 3-5 years as well. To the best of my knowledge almost all of any oil pulled out of the ground in this area will need to go by rail.
Good analysis on how the price differential between WTI and brent crudes effects production in the short term!! We watch this closely…..
BTW--The eastbound EB today looks like it has a shot at being less than 2 hours late into CHI!!!
Good analysis on how the price differential between WTI and brent crudes effects production in the short term!! We watch this closely…..
BTW--The eastbound EB today looks like it has a shot at being less than 2 hours late into CHI!!!
montana mike
Conductor
Sunday Note: Demonstrating the continuing challenges thru out ND for Amtrak and BNSF: #8 lost over 4 hours last night in that area. Looks like another try late arrival into CHI tonight. :-(
Ryan
Court Jester
If it's primarily freight traffic at this point, BNSF needs to get their act together and run the EB on time.
They have an agreement and an obligation to do so, and if that means they can't add as much freight on the line as they would like, tough.
If they want to keep adding traffic and can't do so without delaying Amtrak, they can ask Amtrak for schedule changes.
Just adding traffic so that it's impossible to run Amtrak on time and then throwing their hands up and saying "Sorry guys! Too much traffic, nothing we can do!" Is a load of crap.
They have an agreement and an obligation to do so, and if that means they can't add as much freight on the line as they would like, tough.
If they want to keep adding traffic and can't do so without delaying Amtrak, they can ask Amtrak for schedule changes.
Just adding traffic so that it's impossible to run Amtrak on time and then throwing their hands up and saying "Sorry guys! Too much traffic, nothing we can do!" Is a load of crap.
Ziv
Conductor
Montana Mike, I have a friend who owns a trucking company near Williston and my Mother has owned ranches in Custer County and now owns a ranch in Stillwater County, and both of them think that the oil play is decades from running out and that it is going to move steadily west into Montana. Both think it will probably taper off before it gets too close to a line connecting Glasgow/Jordan/Hardin, but that is a huge section of Montana that will experience a couple decades of oil field development. This is a subject a lot of eastern Montanans have consumed vast quantities of coffee discussing, and who knows, they may be close to being right. Mineral rights have been an obsession of land owners for generations around here and they have developed a certain expertize in analyzing the probable value of those rights.
I hope that eastern Montana will be better prepared for it than the Williston area was, though.
Given the probable length of this oil boom and the limited nature of the oil pipe lines planned, so far, I wish BN would spend more money double tracking the entire Hi Line. Which would help the EB as well.
Glasgow Scottie Alum.
I hope that eastern Montana will be better prepared for it than the Williston area was, though.
Given the probable length of this oil boom and the limited nature of the oil pipe lines planned, so far, I wish BN would spend more money double tracking the entire Hi Line. Which would help the EB as well.
Glasgow Scottie Alum.
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SubwayNut
Conductor
I assume Amtrak will bus you to SPG instead of letting you spend the night on their dime. If you insisted on spending the night I'm sure they would re-accommodate you free of charge on the morning Lincoln Service but you'd be on your own for the night.
Seems like I've asked before if anyone knows just how the Amtrak/BNSF contract reads and been told it's secret. is that correct? If so, that's yet another secret I'd like to see leaked.
montana mike
Conductor
You have quite accurately portrayed what is happening in eastern MT!!
Both local and state political types have broached this very subject with BNSF, which, so far at least, has said NO to double tracking the entire hi-line, with the main reason being the very high cost to do so. The current lengthy delays being experienced by the East bound EBs almost every day (still no on time arrivals over the past 6+ months, with many trains 3+ hours late into CHI causing many travelers to miss connections) should at least raise a red flag with Amtrak. My recent trip at the end of October ended in an arrival delay in CHI of only about 2 hours and 25 minutes and the car attendant was "thrilled" we had arrived before 7 PM, after each one his last 4 trips had averaged well over 4 hours late! My last communication with Amtrak customer service on this issue provided no hint of any sense of urgency on the part of Amtrak. They basically said they had been working with the host railroads this summer on these issues and were "satisfied" with the responses.
My local BNSF guy keeps reminding me, as he has said several times before, that you can only push so many trains through this now big bottleneck in ND. He said the overall amount of freight traffic continues to climb and it is indeed becoming a "challenge" to schedule things to keep the Amtrak units on time, especially eastbound where there is much less padding in the schedule and where the main traffic increases are occurring. (He also noted that the length of the stops at stations in ND, especially Williston, was getting longer to accommodate a significantly larger number of passengers. I can agree with him on this, since we stayed in Williston over 20 minutes on my last trip thru ND. This is a factor, but not the major reason, just one more of many.
On the plus side the ride is decidedly smoother in the areas where the tracks have been upgraded and repaired!!
No easy or quick solutions I am afraid. Although he was somewhat surprised that, with the reduction in track work (not yet fully completed for the season), things had not improved more than what he was seeing. He too noticed that many #8 trains were still losing 4+ hours running between the MT line and Fargo. He had hoped that the delays should have dropped down to 1-2 hours by now. Maybe this will happen soon.
The bustitution possibility had occurred to me also, but I think that depends on how many people are arriving on the EB on a Wednesday in December and hoping to make the transfer to the Lincoln.
J
JoeZeppy412
Guest
Couple questions to people familiar with the EB. I'm planning on taking it from PGH to SEA and/or Portland next September, probably the second week, but I'm pretty flexible. Is that a good or bad time compared to any others? Anyone think trackwork or other delays will be any better or worse by then? Is there enough daylight, assuming things are at least somewhat on time?
Seattle is the vacation destination, but we've heard the Columbia River gorge is beautiful and it was suggested that looping through Portland to see it is a great idea. Can anyone suggest, is it better to go through the gorge eastbound or westbound? that is go westbound to Seattle, return eastbound from Portland, or vice versa?
Should we take the Cascades from Seattle to Portland, or the Coast Starlight, does it matter?
Anything else I haven't thought of?
Seattle is the vacation destination, but we've heard the Columbia River gorge is beautiful and it was suggested that looping through Portland to see it is a great idea. Can anyone suggest, is it better to go through the gorge eastbound or westbound? that is go westbound to Seattle, return eastbound from Portland, or vice versa?
Should we take the Cascades from Seattle to Portland, or the Coast Starlight, does it matter?
Anything else I haven't thought of?
mwmnp
Service Attendant
That's interesting that the stops are still continuing to get longer since fiscal year 2013 ridership for Williston actually went down 6% compared to fiscal year 2012 while ridership at Stanley was down 8%. For Stanley, that was the first year-over-year decline in ridership in over a decade, while for Williston the decline was the first since FY 2009. Williston continued to be the most heavily used station in North Dakota, though, and the total number of boardings and alightings in the state during FY 2013 was essentially the same as in FY 2012 thanks to ridership at Fargo and the re-reopened Minot station rebounding to 2007-2008 levels.
J
JoeZeppy412
Guest
Sorry to hijack the thread, I'll start a new topic...
I'd go Westbound through the gorge. You get to see more of it by daylight, especially if 27 is running late, which it may well still even a year from now. Conversely, if there are any delays getting the Eastbound #28 off it's butt and moving, you lose daylight pretty quickly. But it's beautiful either way. Binoculars will come in handy.
montana mike
Conductor
I think it is at least partly a change in the pax mix and I have noticed an increase in loading and unloading of luggage as well. And during my last trip we were held just west of the station for a couple of freights to clear.
mwmnp
Service Attendant
Here's some interesting reading on Trainorders: http://www.trainorders.com/discussion/read.php?1,3233439
Ryan
Court Jester
Interesting link, thanks for sharing.
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