No Florida High Speed Rail

[Gray]

This sort of analysis is actually not so uncommon in the real world. It's a meta-analysis, and it's a legitimate tool. After all, you point out that studies "done by people with actual knowledge and experience" said something. Well, how much trust should Florida put in their conclusions? Should the state of Florida, which is already having budget problems, risk funding a project based largely on their say so? A reasonable answer is to look at other studies "done by people with actual knowledge and experience" to get a sense of how accurate such knowledgeable and experienced planners are historically. The answer, it turns out, is surprisingly disconcerting.

Well, they didn't perform a meta-analysis; they cited a meta-analysis that happens to agree with their conclusions without context. Context is kind of important here, and it's the difference between an analysis of this particular project and a gut feeling that an analysis is wrong.

Does that mean the planners are definitely wrong or that they knowingly submitted a flawed report? No. But it does mean the project carries more risk than its backers may have assumed, and considering its budget Florida is right to be risk-adverse right now.

Again, you keep saying there's tons of risk for the state, but there just isn't. The bidding process was structured to require bidders to take on any downside risk. Now, if your concern is that a multinational corporation that's bidding (like, say, Siemens or Alstom) is going to go bankrupt and leave Florida with its debts, we've got bigger problems.

Moreover, people at the DOT have already stated that they would have been willing to have a discussion about indemnifying the state from even the low probability risk, but Scott never asked them about it.

Glancing through, I don't see anything in the report that refers to Acela turning or not turning a profit. Can you point to it?

I didn't say they addressed Acela's profitability. They brought it up as an example for other reasons, but didn't mention that it's hugely profitable (on an operating basis). That just contradicts your statement that no rail line anywhere turns a profit.

The profitability of this line relies on demand, and the report does cast doubt on the demand. Therefore, it casts doubts on the profitability. It also states various circumstances under which Florida would be left holding the bag, regardless of this group's insistence that it would be impossible. Those threats--ranging from the private guarantor shutting down to actions of federal government itself--are entirely real and undisputed here.

Again, these threats are neither real nor undisputed.

 

[volkris]

Well, they didn't perform a meta-analysis; they cited a meta-analysis that happens to agree with their conclusions without context. Context is kind of important here, and it's the difference between an analysis of this particular project and a gut feeling that an analysis is wrong.

Do you have a meta-analysis that disagrees with the one they presented or any reason to doubt that particular meta-analysis?

This has nothing to do with gut feelings. It has to do with risk assessment. We see that smart, well meaning experts making projections very frequently come up with very wrong conclusions, and that rightfully casts doubt on the projections made by the current group of smart, well meaning experts making projections. History thus shows that there is a real risk that the current projections are to be viewed with healthy skepticism.

As to the risk, it's not common these days to view large multinational corporations as such heroes, ready to stand up for their obligations regardless of the downsides they'd experience. Through the years we've seen plenty of instances of "interesting" business activities ranging from creative accounting to government-backed (sometimes government-imposed) fraud, all of which speaks to the simple fact that a business caught in an unprofitable and unsustainable situation will often find a way to get out of it.

Think it's still farfetched that the businesses would ever weasel out of their responsibility? Fine. But then, the downside is still pretty intimidating. Even with an unlikely loss, the state has no money to cover the consequences. Arguably it's a gamble that's just not work taking at the moment. Risks are high not only because of likelihoods but also because of consequences.

As for profitability, keep in mind that it's not my claim that no rail service makes a profit. It's just a theme I see thrown around on this board quite often, and if it's to be accepted, then this Florida deal was dead from the start... as GML seems to think.

 

[Anderson]

I'm going to step back in here. Though obviously I do not have the mid-1990s figures for the Metroliners handy (which is a shame; it'd be nice to be able to extend my datasets back further), I would point out that I still don't see where they're going to get more than folks riding this to Disney World out of the deal...and even there, it's a lousy deal for larger families since they'll still need a cab or rental car when they get off the train. This doesn't provide downtown-to-downtown service, it doesn't build on an existing service...it just drops out of nowhere.

I will say that I would rather have a decent-to-good HSR line in place than no line, but if it's a choice between a bad line that becomes a fiscal embarrassment and no line? I choose no line in a heartbeat, and the more I look at this it looks to me to be a bad line.

Let me put this another way, in the form of an analogy: A high-speed line is built from San Diego to Los Angeles. Setting aside the pre-existing line there, if the line goes to downtown San Diego but peels off and only goes to Anaheim and LAX rather than actually going into Los Angeles proper, I'm going to be hard-pressed to take that train to LA. I might take it to San Diego, assuming that the parking and the ticket price are both reasonable, but I'm not going to take it if I'm going to LA for the day, and probably not for the weekend. Or let me offer another option: There's a high-speed line from Richmond to Washington, DC. In DC, however, the line either skips over the city and just goes to BWI without interlinking with the metro, or it shoots off to Dulles...and in both cases, I've got to make a VRE transfer somewhere. Or...Albany-to-NYC with the closest stop to NYC being Newark International. That's what I feel like we've got here.

How hard would it have been to adjust the project to ensure it linked into the CSX A-line in downtown and to electrify the few miles (I think it's 10 miles or so) from the Convention Center to Orlando Central Station? No, the new train couldn't do 160 through downtown Orlando, but it could link with everything else in a reasonable manner. Or, how hard would it have been to amend the SunRail plan as a part of this to ensure that the SunRail line went to a direct link with this, either at the airport (which would actually be a good use...people actually do travel from Orlando to other places, after all, and airport parking at a major airport tends to be far more expensive than the train fare to the airport if you're going away for a few days). Let's not forget that for all Orlando is a major tourist center, it's also a significant financial center and has a major downtown area.

Finally, I'd like to call out the tendency of folks to say "If this goes down, X may be next". I am not going to defend a project that I think is doomed to failure in an attempt to protect another one. Yes, there is a troubling trend within the GOP, and I do think Scott needs to be pushed back against, but I also agree with GML and think this was a poorly-designed project that was going to do a disservice to our cause in the long run.

May I finally point out that with the poor linking to Orlando proper, the utility of the Miami-Orlando link comes into question. I think it's less endangered because of the distances and times involved, but I still think that not being able to go to downtown on the train does the line no good.

 

[The Davy Crockett]

Maryland's Governor O'Malley has asked Secretary of Transportation LaHood for Florida's rejected $2.4 billion to make improvements on the NEC, including replacing the tunnels in Baltimore. While not a glamorous high profile use of the money, it would not be a bad use of it either, IMO.

 

[AlanB]

I would point out that I still don't see where they're going to get more than folks riding this to Disney World out of the deal...and even there, it's a lousy deal for larger families since they'll still need a cab or rental car when they get off the train.

If one is going to Disney, one doesn't need a car. One only needs a car if one plans to go to other non-Disney places. Otherwise, the Disney transporation system is so extensive and frequent that no car is needed. I've done many a vacation at Disney without a car.

 

[Anderson]

I would point out that I still don't see where they're going to get more than folks riding this to Disney World out of the deal...and even there, it's a lousy deal for larger families since they'll still need a cab or rental car when they get off the train.

If one is going to Disney, one doesn't need a car. One only needs a car if one plans to go to other non-Disney places. Otherwise, the Disney transporation system is so extensive and frequent that no car is needed. I've done many a vacation at Disney without a car.

Your point is taken if one remains in the Disney area exclusively, something I've never done when going to the area. However, to call upon my experience back in 2001, my folks took me to Disney World and Universal Studios. There are also lots of people who go to Disney World but who don't stay at one of the Disney hotels...or who end up wanting to go somewhere else in the Orlando area. Again...if folks are just going one place, the train may make sense, but not if they want to go elsewhere (unless Disney plans to add some sort of ZipCar service to their , and I haven't seen anything either way on that point). Assuming the low-end fare ($15), if I'm going to Orlando with a family of four, I am not going to spend $60 to take my family to Disney, $60 out and $60 back for Universal Studios or SeaWorld, and then $60 back to the airport. That's around twice what a rental car would cost me for the week.

Look, unless Disney is planning not only to direct people to the train but to basically throw in the airport round trip as part of a complete hotel package (in the vein of the current included motorcoach service), the tourist numbers aren't going to be there because of the rental car situation. And even with that...if you're hiking $120 in costs onto a family vacation (again, $15*4 people*2 trips), people are going to notice the hike, particularly on a shorter package ($120 runs to about a 10% hike on the basic 3-night package they have). If I had to read into this project, I'd say that Disney is going to be looking to get some sort of bulk discount on the ticket price if they make their end work...they'll certainly have the negotiating power to do it if they're dealing in even 100,000 rides per year.

I guess the question that jumps to mind now is what annual attendance is at those hotels rather than the parks (the latter number is going to be inflated by both large numbers of people who are from the area driving in and by repeat attendees on the same ticket). When we went, we were at a condo nearby and had a rental car (again, going around town).

 

[TVRM610]

I would point out that I still don't see where they're going to get more than folks riding this to Disney World out of the deal...and even there, it's a lousy deal for larger families since they'll still need a cab or rental car when they get off the train.

If one is going to Disney, one doesn't need a car. One only needs a car if one plans to go to other non-Disney places. Otherwise, the Disney transporation system is so extensive and frequent that no car is needed. I've done many a vacation at Disney without a car.

I was just at Disney and to add to that it's actually very easy to get to Universal and Sea World (and all other tourist places) by the lynx bus. Takes about an hour to get to Universal (depending on how good your timing is) and just about 20 or so minutes to get to sea world. Getting to and from Amtrak is also very easy, but it does require a transfer at the downtown Lynx Station, which is easy, but add some time.

I also rode the Silver Star down to Tampa... Lots of 79mph running. I'd say improve that track to 90 or 110 (it's certainly possible). Start running "corridor" style trains Orlando to Tampa and I think, as others have said, that things will build nicely from there. (Is that the basic Sun Rail Plan)?

 

[Anderson]

TVRM,

Here's a quick rundown:

-SunRail is a planned commuter operation, aimed at running from DeLand to an industrial park south of Orlando. Basically, the objective is to get people off of I-4 who're running from out near Daytona to Orlando on the expressway every day. The reason that integrating it is important is that by linking the two, you'd open up a substantial business market between the two cities (this is also why the lack of a downtown Orlando link alone is infuriating...you're not going to get business folks coming from Tampa to get dropped off at the Orlando Airport).

-The second reason this is a bit frustrating is that even absent the HSR program itself, the new Tampa-Orlando line (if it linked into the CSX A-Line) would be an excellent shift for Tampa-bound trains. If push came to shove, you could reroute the Silvers on that line and run them at 110 MPH (which VIA does all the time with their Genesis engines) most or all of the way. You could also run corridor trains that link up with SunRail proper, again at 110 MPH if you simply use the existing engines, or at 125 MPH if you need to get new ones.

Look, there's no reason you can't run trains that go Tampa-Orlando downtown and trains that go Tampa-Orlando airport, and you could even run ones that hit both using a push-pull configuration like I expect they're doing. The big thing is that, with SunRail owning the right-of-way on that stretch of the A-line, you're not going to be dealing with freight-related delays. If you need to, you could probably finagle some money to split through trains onto a separate track to go around stopped commuter trains if that's an issue, but even having the RoW lined up will probably allow at least some cuts in times, which would open up the possibility of Jacksonville-Orlando-Tampa corridor service.

Part of why I raise SunRail is that it presents an opportunity to run Jacksonville-Orlando-Tampa service. With the HSR project and SunRail, you've got over half of the right-of-way for such a train under government control. I know that there's a focus on Orlando-Miami as the next route, and I agree that such is a good route, but when you've got 136 of 246 miles wrapped up, it seems a waste not to try and round up that remaining stretch...particularly if you can get over 79 MPH on stretches with just signal upgrades. As it stands, Jacksonville-Deland averages 59 MPH, and I think there's some makeup time built in for Orlando (the average on the DeLand-Orlando segment is under 40 MPH, which seems odd in contrast to the previous one and what you mentioned about the Tampa segment).

 

[Greg]

and the saga continues: Bipartisan lawsuit to the Florida Supreme Court:

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/senators-joyner-altman-sue-rick-scott-over-bullet-train-today

 

[George Harris]

Since a lot of people don't seem to have actually read the study they're so critical of, here's a link: http://reason.org/files/florida_high_speed_rail_analysis.pdf

You are right, I have not read it, and really do not intend to. They are writing to back up a predetermined conclusion, which is their norm when it comes to anything rail. That is NOT honest research and analysis. I read a good part of the one written from the same mindset on the California system. They likewise concluded that the required run times were unachievable, and keep talking about the numerous intermediate stops ignoring the reality that not all trains make all stops. There appeared to be no real analysis of the disparagement of the run times.

Much of their report comes down to "Figures may not lie, but liars figure."

 

[Greg]

the Florida Supreme Court has ruled in favor of Governor Rick Scott. the high speed rail in florida is dead....

 

[Spokker]

Rick Scott was last seen heading over to I-4 to pave over the right of way.

 

[Guest]

the Florida Supreme Court has ruled ...

The Florida Supreme Court also ruled that Al Gore won.

 

[Ryan]

Nobody's perfect every time...

 

[Steve4031]

Perfect idiots IMHO.

 

[Anderson]

Considering the margins of support, I don't see why the legislature doesn't simply jam through a law ordering Scott to do the railroad (or even pulling it out of executive oversight in some way...I'm not familiar with Florida constitutional law, but I'd think this would be doable) and override any veto. They have the numbers in the Senate (at least, as per that roundtable letter they did), I think they do in the House, and Scott's approval numbers are in the toilet. The "nay" side on this is at what? 17%?

 

[Ozark Southern]

Considering the margins of support, I don't see why the legislature doesn't simply jam through a law ordering Scott to do the railroad (or even pulling it out of executive oversight in some way...I'm not familiar with Florida constitutional law, but I'd think this would be doable) and override any veto. They have the numbers in the Senate (at least, as per that roundtable letter they did), I think they do in the House, and Scott's approval numbers are in the toilet. The "nay" side on this is at what? 17%?

I understand they're still not giving up. The latest plan is to put together a coalition of municipal and county governments between Pinellas and Orange Counties and re-apply for the grant. Under such an arrangement, Gov. Scott would have no authority over the funds.

 

[afigg]

I understand they're still not giving up. The latest plan is to put together a coalition of municipal and county governments between Pinellas and Orange Counties and re-apply for the grant. Under such an arrangement, Gov. Scott would have no authority over the funds.

How would that work? Isn't the median strip of I-4 state owned property? Any big project such as this is going to need cooperation from state executive branch agencies. While the staffers at the state DOT, some of whom have spent years working on the Florida HSR project, would favor helping the HSR project out, the Governor and his appointed head of the state agencies run the agencies. Governor Scott has demonstrated that he is hostile to transit projects, so he could put all sort of roadblocks in the way over the remainder of his term.

 

[George Harris]

I have a feeling that a lot of what is going on here is like watching a duck swim. That is, most of the action is out of sight.

 

[Ozark Southern]

I understand they're still not giving up. The latest plan is to put together a coalition of municipal and county governments between Pinellas and Orange Counties and re-apply for the grant. Under such an arrangement, Gov. Scott would have no authority over the funds.

How would that work? Isn't the median strip of I-4 state owned property? Any big project such as this is going to need cooperation from state executive branch agencies. While the staffers at the state DOT, some of whom have spent years working on the Florida HSR project, would favor helping the HSR project out, the Governor and his appointed head of the state agencies run the agencies. Governor Scott has demonstrated that he is hostile to transit projects, so he could put all sort of roadblocks in the way over the remainder of his term.

I doubt it will work. Sen. Nelson called it a "Hail Mary" effort, so even he doesn't think it has much of a chance. You are correct that the new grant will require a new ROW that does not use state-owned land. No, this plan is dead. Time to go through its pockets and look for loose change. Honestly, I'm okay with this one not going through. Of the three high-speed corridors, this was the least likely to be successful. I'm putting my hope in the S.F. to L.A. line as the best chance for a successful high-speed project. When the public see its success, as well as that of the 110-MPH lines in the Midwest, perhaps they'll be less averse to funding infrastructure improvements. Probably not. It seems this is like getting kids to eat broccoli: They have to make a habit of it when they're young, or else they'll refuse, no matter how good it is for them.

 

[Steve4031]

I think the federal government should cut bait with Florida. If they can't get their act together now, they will not be able to do it later. They are like a bunch of monkeys chasing a football.

Other states "have no money" and are displaying the political will to get it down. These states, IMHO, will prosper down the line. And then other states will see the light and get their act together.

 

[amtrakwolverine]

The other states have no money see this type of project as creating jobs which will help them out in the long run.

 

[PJRACER]

It seems like you all have beaten this dead horse enough!!! I am a Florida resident, pay taxes in Florida, and I am one of many hundreds of thousands who are glad this is DONE. We already have a daily AMTRAK from Tampa to Orlando.....nobody rides it......we have a sufficient busing service....nobody rides it. As a retired Pinellas County bus driver, I spent many years driving the county buses on the designated routes....most often a small scattering of riders. Give the money we don't have to others that need it more and don't mind seeing cost over-runs, and taxes continue to sky-rocket. "People love to spend on things they don't need, with money they don't have, to impress people they don't like."

 

[AlanB]

PJ,

Even I do wonder if indeed all the ridership that was predicted would have been there.

That said, the fact that no one rides the current Amtrak service between Orlando & Tampa isn't proof of anything. The current service doesn't permit a same day round trip Tampa to Orland; not to mention that the Orlando to Tampa direction is often late. Therefore it is useless to claim that no one will ride HSR because no one rides the current Amtrak service. It's not a matter of people not wanting to ride the service; it's a matter of people not be able to use it.

Additionally bus service is never an accurate predictor of train ridership, but especially so when you're comparing a bus running at 60 MPH if it's lucky to a train going double that speed.

I understand that you're concerned about the cost and I respect that; it is something to be worried about. But the reasons that you're using to predict potentially poor ridership aren't valid.

Finally, let me leave you with one other thought. If Florida keeps rejecting rail, ever higher taxes for you guys is guaranteed. Consider the following:

In 2010 if you were part of a married, retired couple with $100,000 in income, then you paid $89.38 towards the highways. That's not what you paid because you brought gas; that's what you paid via your Federal income tax. That big bad train system called Amtrak that so many like to hate, you gave them $3.11. Train's aren't raising your taxes; it's all those highways in Florida that are raising your taxes. The last expansion of I-4 cost FLDOT more per mile to build than this train would have and those lanes aren't being fully paid for by the fuel taxes. Your other Florida taxes are still going into that highway.

 

[Daniel]

So with Florida rejecting the $2.4 billion, when can we expect to hear where the funds will be redistributed?