This discussion is interesting; however, I think if Boardman is able to cut the budget through the Voluntary Separation agreements the cutting of LD trains may not be necessary. The voluntary separation agreements are only the first step, there will be involuntary RIFs in the early part of 2012, so more to come in reducing costs. I certainly would not look to the various states to either increase their expenditures or the addition of new state agreements. The states are suffering as much, if not more, than the federal government and new trains are not in their radar (for the most part). Illinois, North Carolina and Virginia may have dollars to spend, but I would think it would be enhancing the existing routes rather than new routes.
New York state, California, even Michigan all have political support for passenger rail. California has plans for increased service on existing routes using the funding they received to purchase new bi-level coach cars and locomotives. There may be some back and forth between each state and Amtrak on what the subsidy amount will be. That may an additional reason for Boardman to cut overhead costs. The state DOTs are balking at the overhead and Amtrak needs to show they can control overhead and personnel costs to not only Congress, but to their state partners (or customers if you will).
The September 2011 Monthly report is out which shows the preliminary operating loss after adjustments is $457.5 million, $104 million less than the FY11 $561.9 million operating grant. The Senate on Tuesday passed a Transportation bill with $544 million for the Operating Grant. The bill still has to get through the House and the reconciliation process - which will be messy. if Amtrak gets $544 million for Operating grant in FY12, the LD routes should be safe. However, I suspect Boardman realizes that Amtrak will have to live with cuts in the Operating Grant down to $300 to $400 million range once the required state subsidies are in place in FY13. So, if they can make enough cuts in costs to hold costs down, make real improvements to the LD trains to improve cost recovery, the LD trains could keep going just fine, if not see some modest expansion in service. If not, then some LD trains go away.