So I think 2014 will be an interesting year. Obama announced his big transportation bill that , if I recall, has quite a bit of $$$ for Amtrak. The elections will be interesting. Democrats are generally more Amtrak friendly and if they take back the House, that could bring something good.
What will the rest of 2014 bring for Amtrak?
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Ryan
Court Jester
More of the same.
The EB will continue with its pitiful OTP.
More ACS-64s will replace AEM-7s and HHP-8s.
We'll probably see new Viewliners out rolling around.
Any changes will be very slow and incremental.
And the Republicans have a better chance of taking the Senate than the Democrats have of taking the house. Either way, without a 60 vote majority in the Senate, expect precisely nothing of any consequence to happen in 2014 or beyond.
The EB will continue with its pitiful OTP.
More ACS-64s will replace AEM-7s and HHP-8s.
We'll probably see new Viewliners out rolling around.
Any changes will be very slow and incremental.
And the Republicans have a better chance of taking the Senate than the Democrats have of taking the house. Either way, without a 60 vote majority in the Senate, expect precisely nothing of any consequence to happen in 2014 or beyond.
Let's turn this around. Until very recently, support for passenger rail was not a partisan issue. And there are still lots of Rs who recognize the benefits of rail to the business communities in their home states.
But the battle for passenger rail is now complicated by the fact that we need to fight not only on the federal level, but on the state and local levels, too.
So no matter where you live, it's important to let your elected representatives know that you support passenger rail. I'll be on Capitol Hill on April 29 to do just that. Will you?
But the battle for passenger rail is now complicated by the fact that we need to fight not only on the federal level, but on the state and local levels, too.
So no matter where you live, it's important to let your elected representatives know that you support passenger rail. I'll be on Capitol Hill on April 29 to do just that. Will you?
There will be a debate and fight over the transportation bill, the Amtrak reauthorization bill and the FY2015 appropriations on Capitol Hill. How that will turn out is anyone's guess at this point as it is complicated by the fact that this is a mid-term election year. There is a chance that there will be an agreement to increase transportation and infrastructure spending with a change in the tax code to bring in additional revenue but it will be a short term gimmick revenue enhancement good for only a few years. But it is only a chance that an agreement will be reached, the FY15 discretionary budget could remain at the previously agreed levels. Which would mean that Amtrak and passenger rail might get at best a little more than it did in FY14.
The critical question for Amtrak is the re-authoirization bill. What will it do to the LD trains and will it extend the direct Treasury financing of exercising the Early Buyout Options for the rolling stock leases that have been vital in reducing Amtrak's debt load and saving money on lease payments?
As for Amtrak, on the rolling stock front, the ACS-64s will become a common site on the NEC and one would hope that the Viewliner IIs begin to enter revenue service later in the year. Probably no major service changes or expansions while track and station work continues or finally starts on many corridors. 2015 and 2016 are likely to be the years that we see many of the improvements from the stimulus funds and TIGER grants finally start to kick in with new rolling stock, trip time reductions, service expansion in IL, and so on.
For the LD trains, the EB mess is likely to continue through 2014. The Silvers will see a bounce from the completion of SunRail phase 1 project. The Raton Pass route question will remain unsettled. There will be more amenity cuts and service changes on the LD trains to trim operating losses which will lead to more hue and cry.
neroden
Engineer
My extremely well-informed predictions regarding the political future of the US are probably off-topic here. Suffice it to say that all three branches of the Federal Government will continue to not function properly for quite a while, until we have, at minimum, a full-scale party realignment similar to the one where the Whigs went away. That will happen relatively soon but not in the next election cycle.
During this dangerous period of federal governmental non-functioning, Amtrak is going to be facing the usual continuing resolutions and year-at-a-time servings of budget from the Feds, most likely, no matter what we do.
During this dangerous period of federal governmental non-functioning, the state governments will also be more important. They seem more able to *act*, in most cases.
Most importantly, the general public mood has turned decisively in favor of passenger rail. And that *has* to seep through to *some* of the politicians, even if many of them seem insistent on keeping their heads in the sand and their policies in the 1950s (or earlier). This seems to be having an effect even in state legislative caucuses where I wouldn't have expected it. This sort of change moves slowly, however, and I don't expect to see anything dramatic in 2014.
So forget the elections. I mean, of course, don't forget them -- grill all your local candidates and demand that they support Amtrak, particularly the trains which you care most about (myself, I care mostly about NY-Chicago). But don't expect major change.
----
What's going to happen in 2014?
1 - Amtrak is going to move the Empire Builder to St. Paul Union Depot, preferably before hell freezes over.
2 - The Viewliner IIs are going to start to enter service, dammit, or I'll be very annoyed.
3 - Troy station might open in Michigan, if a judge will allow it.
4 - Dearborn station should open in Michigan, once they build something unutterably stupid for the benefit of NS, who I thought they'd gotten rid of by buying the track...
5 - Grand Rapids station should open as soon as someone convinces CSX to finish connecting the track.
6 - Amtrak might move into Miami Central Station. Or pigs might fly.
7 - There will be large, disruptive construction work on Dearborn-Kalamazoo, Poughkeepsie-Schenectady-Hoffmans, around Syracuse, along the Surfliner route, along the Cascades route, in the Orlando area for SunRail, along the St. Louis - Chicago route as always, and and possibly even at West Detroit Junction if we're very lucky.
8 - Englewood Flyover will almost certainly open near the end of the year... and then we'll see what the other causes of delay are on the lines from Chicago eastward. If NS was telling the truth that this was their main source of delay, we could see a remarkable change in OTP for several trains.
In short, a whole bunch of projects which should have benefited Amtrak should have opened in 2013 or early 2014, but they were all seriously delayed and are instead opening in late 2014. Therefore we're going to see the benefits only at the very end of the year, probably mostly from October onward.
I can simply hope that OTP gets back to its 2013 levels. If this happens, Amtrak's revenue and ridership will hit new highs again. If OTP stays in the dumps for the rest of the year, it'll be a bad year.
On another matter, in 2014 Amtrak and Metrolink will probably finish or come close to finishing their PTC deployments. SEPTA and BNSF will probably finish in 2015. The other railroads will be tardy; they may be trying in good faith to meet the deadline now, but they sure weren't back when the mandate was passed.
I'd love to see Amtrak resume its half-finished work on reconfiguring Chicago Union Station, but geez, who knows. Amtrak seems to be unwilling to commit even to relatively small projects sometimes.
During this dangerous period of federal governmental non-functioning, Amtrak is going to be facing the usual continuing resolutions and year-at-a-time servings of budget from the Feds, most likely, no matter what we do.
During this dangerous period of federal governmental non-functioning, the state governments will also be more important. They seem more able to *act*, in most cases.
Most importantly, the general public mood has turned decisively in favor of passenger rail. And that *has* to seep through to *some* of the politicians, even if many of them seem insistent on keeping their heads in the sand and their policies in the 1950s (or earlier). This seems to be having an effect even in state legislative caucuses where I wouldn't have expected it. This sort of change moves slowly, however, and I don't expect to see anything dramatic in 2014.
So forget the elections. I mean, of course, don't forget them -- grill all your local candidates and demand that they support Amtrak, particularly the trains which you care most about (myself, I care mostly about NY-Chicago). But don't expect major change.
----
What's going to happen in 2014?
1 - Amtrak is going to move the Empire Builder to St. Paul Union Depot, preferably before hell freezes over.
2 - The Viewliner IIs are going to start to enter service, dammit, or I'll be very annoyed.
3 - Troy station might open in Michigan, if a judge will allow it.
4 - Dearborn station should open in Michigan, once they build something unutterably stupid for the benefit of NS, who I thought they'd gotten rid of by buying the track...
5 - Grand Rapids station should open as soon as someone convinces CSX to finish connecting the track.
6 - Amtrak might move into Miami Central Station. Or pigs might fly.
7 - There will be large, disruptive construction work on Dearborn-Kalamazoo, Poughkeepsie-Schenectady-Hoffmans, around Syracuse, along the Surfliner route, along the Cascades route, in the Orlando area for SunRail, along the St. Louis - Chicago route as always, and and possibly even at West Detroit Junction if we're very lucky.
8 - Englewood Flyover will almost certainly open near the end of the year... and then we'll see what the other causes of delay are on the lines from Chicago eastward. If NS was telling the truth that this was their main source of delay, we could see a remarkable change in OTP for several trains.
In short, a whole bunch of projects which should have benefited Amtrak should have opened in 2013 or early 2014, but they were all seriously delayed and are instead opening in late 2014. Therefore we're going to see the benefits only at the very end of the year, probably mostly from October onward.
I can simply hope that OTP gets back to its 2013 levels. If this happens, Amtrak's revenue and ridership will hit new highs again. If OTP stays in the dumps for the rest of the year, it'll be a bad year.
On another matter, in 2014 Amtrak and Metrolink will probably finish or come close to finishing their PTC deployments. SEPTA and BNSF will probably finish in 2015. The other railroads will be tardy; they may be trying in good faith to meet the deadline now, but they sure weren't back when the mandate was passed.
I'd love to see Amtrak resume its half-finished work on reconfiguring Chicago Union Station, but geez, who knows. Amtrak seems to be unwilling to commit even to relatively small projects sometimes.
jis
Permanent Way Inspector
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Nathaniel, you forgot to mention the large disruptive construction work on the NEC between New Brunswick and Morrisville, which will continue till 2017. I think this will be more disruptive than anything on the Empire Corridor.
There will be disruptive work at Albany NY station and also around Rochester NY station.
And the disruptive work at Harold interlocking will continue unabated for a few more years.
There will be disruptive work at Albany NY station and also around Rochester NY station.
And the disruptive work at Harold interlocking will continue unabated for a few more years.
tim49424
Engineer
From what I hear this is projected now for July, 2014. I have a bad gut feeling it's going to be a lot later than that. It should open on time (April or May), however, for bus service.
neroden
Engineer
Yeah, this was just the stuff I thought of of the top of my head, thanks for the additions.
New Haven-Hartford-Springfield should be under continuous disruptive construction work soon too, right?
...which reminds me, the Vermonter reroute is supposed to actually happen sometime. I'm betting on 2015, though. The track has to be purchased first, which might actually happen in 2014.
Meanwhile, the Springfield (MA) Union Station project appears to be delayed.... again... with predicted completion now in 2016. Does this one win some kind of record for delays? I mean, it's got nothing on the Second Avenue Subway (first delayed in the 1920s) but the Springfield Union Station project first started in 1989, and seems to have first gotten federal funding in 2000.
Much of the NHV-SPG work is to add/restore the second track, improve grade crossings so the track work may not be that disruptive. But I could be wrong.
The last I read on the CT River line re-route in MA was early 2015. The Vermonter re-route would be just the first step. What type of expanded service would run north of SPG to Greenfield and when it would start is not yet set as far as I know. Extending a NHV-SPG shuttle to Greenfield should be straightforward depending on equipment availability.
While there are a few projects that are slated for completion in 2014 - Englewood Flyover in Chicago, Tower 55 in Fort Worth which has some secondary benefits to the TE I gather - I agree that the short story is that 2014 will likely be mostly a "pain" year with service disruptions for track work before we see the "gain" in 2015 and beyond.
neroden
Engineer
I wonder when TxDOT will be forced to return the money earmarked for moving Amtrak's Texas Eagle to the TRE line. It seems that there is zero progress on moving Amtrak to the TRE (after several years), so it's about time to return the money.
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H
HAL
Guest
First they better fix the Sprinter. Right now they can only be run between NYP and WAS. 47 items to be fixed. Not good....
Ryan
Court Jester
And there hasn't been a revenue run to BOS since, as far as I know.
That certainly isn't a coincidence.
Now since that run (and several test runs) have made it over the road without breaking down, it isn't like they don't work at all, but it's pretty clear that there are some issues that still need to be worked out up there.
That certainly isn't a coincidence.
Now since that run (and several test runs) have made it over the road without breaking down, it isn't like they don't work at all, but it's pretty clear that there are some issues that still need to be worked out up there.
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There are issues with the software that adapts for change of catenary voltage and for gaps in the catenary. This need is required for operation between New York and Boston. Until the software is update and tested, the locomotives are limited to revenue operation between New York and Washington (and Harrisburg) only.
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Ryan
Court Jester
Thanks, that's the first I've heard it was a software issue. That's much better than a problem that requires a hardware fix.
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jis
Permanent Way Inspector
Staff member
Administator
Moderator
AU Supporting Member
Gathering Team Member
You've not been reading the ACS-64 thread carefully eh? This has been mentioned in that thread several weeks back AFAIR. It has certainly been known since the second week of ACS-64 operations when a planned deployment of 601 on a BOS - WAS service did not take place.
tim49424
Engineer
Just saw this article that says the station should open this fall sometime.
http://www.grbj.com/articles/80110-amtrak-station-readies-for-arrivals
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