Tracking FY 2024 Ridership and Finances

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Anderson said:
So, "break even" was always a tangled concept.
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Tangled indeed. Doesn't Amtrak calculate break even using "above the rail costs", which means that the NEC is not charged (in break-even analysis) for anything to do with the track? Yet, LD route economics do get an accounting charge for the fee paid to the host railroad for use of the track.

If my understanding is correct, this is clearly tilting the scales in favor of the NEC when it comes to financial reporting.
 
lrh442 said:
Tangled indeed. Doesn't Amtrak calculate break even using "above the rail costs", which means that the NEC is not charged (in break-even analysis) for anything to do with the track? Yet, LD route economics do get an accounting charge for the fee paid to the host railroad for use of the track.

If my understanding is correct, this is clearly tilting the scales in favor of the NEC when it comes to financial reporting.
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If Amtrak is following the rules set by the Northeast Corridor Commission then Amtrak Infra is supposed to levy a trackage charge on the Amtrak NEC Operations BU. Whether they do so or not and whether Amtrak accounts for that in its NEC operations P&L account, I have not verified.
 
Reading the analysis in this thread has been very useful as I'm trying to better understand the route-level financial results that are on the last page of each monthly report.

One question: It seems that operating revenue includes state subsidies to Amtrak, as operating revenue is much higher than gross ticket revenue for the State Supported routes but roughly equal to gross ticket revenue for NEC and LD routes. But, in the case of the Empire Service, operating revenue is substantially lower than gross ticket revenue*. What might explain this?

*In December, the Empire Service gross ticket revenue was $7.1 million and operating expenses were $7.2 million, but operating revenue was only $5.8 million. Comparing gross ticket revenue to operating expenses shows the route near breakeven, while comparing operating revenue to operating expenses shows 80% cost recovery.
 
Septa9739 said:
The New York funding is allocated across Empire West/Maple Leaf, Empire South, Ethan Allen Express, and Adirondack. The way that gets accounted for in the reports astonishes me.
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If you go back to the early 2000s, this has always been a mess. Ridership-wise, NYP-ALB rides are dumped to that route, with VT, Adirondack, and Upstate/Maple Leaf rides past ALB going to the respective trains. In the early 2000s it depended on which train you were on.
 
Anderson said:
Ridership-wise, NYP-ALB rides are dumped to that route, with VT, Adirondack, and Upstate/Maple Leaf rides past ALB going to the respective trains.
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Thank you; the accounting makes more sense to me now. If someone takes the Ethan Allen from NYP to ALB, the gross ticket revenue and ridership both get assigned to "Empire Service," but the operating revenue gets assigned to "Ethan Allen." Is that accurate?
 
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Amtrak ridership would have really increased from 2022 except for the problem of LOSSAN shut downs. Amtrak lost ~~ 4 million LOSSAN trips compared 2019 to 2023. State supported only increased by 1.1M rides to 16.5 million rides. FY rides were 32.5 M in 2019 vs only FY 2023 of 28.6 M. So, if LOSSAN had just been same in 2023 as it was 2019 total Amtrak ridership would have equaled its highest FY. Unless Amtrak can get capacity going, this FY 2024 may even be less than 2023.

The problems of LOSSAN, winter cancellations due to lack of locos, Acela-1s slowly dying on the vine for parts
 
The January Monthly Performance Report is out. Again these are monthly, not YTD figures. Apologies for formatting issues.

The following six routes are between 95%-100% of January FY 2020 ridership:

Downeaster 97% (42,400-41,300)
  1. Illini/Saluki 95% (19,200-18,300)
  2. Cascades 99% (51,200-50,800)
  3. Blue Water 96%(11,600-11,100)
  4. Newport News Regional (24,200-23,700)
  5. Crescent (18,000-17,600)
The following are less:

Acela Express 89% (279,100-231,800) a substantial slump from December, but in line with October and November
  1. Springfield Shuttles 77% (55,600-42,100)
  2. Keystone Service 72% (125,900-91,600) a drop
  3. Lincoln Service 67% (46,400-31,300) most Chicago area corridors will see drops this month due to weather.
  4. Hiawatha 62% (62,600-38,800)
  5. Wolverines 62% (26,500-35,400
  6. IL Zephyr 52% (7,300-13,300)
  7. PacSurf 60% (129,600-217,400) Rockslides are again a problem
  8. Capitol Corridor 52% (78,600-146,800) This corridor is a mess.
  9. San Joaquin 84% (65,600-78,400) slight slide (again)
  10. Adirondack 92% (6,800-7,400) This is remarkable recovery given the lines years’ long suspension followed by weather issues.
  11. Missouri River Runner 87% (8,800-10,100) Part of the weather mess.
  12. Pere Marquette 89% (5,800-6,300)
  13. Cardinal 91% (5,900-6,400) a best for the year
  14. Silver Meteor 86% (20,200-23,500) a recovery from last month
  15. Capitol Limited 91% (11,800-13,000) a definite recovery and COVID-era record
  16. Empire Builder 75% (25,100-18,900) weather
  17. California Zephyr 88% (29,400-33,400)
  18. Southwest Chief 82% (17,200-21,100)
  19. Sunset Limited 92% (9,000-7,500)
  20. Coast Starlight 73% (29,600-21,900) ugly
The system continues to look strong, but California (inter alia) continues to sandbag nationwide ridership. Chicago area corridors were hit particularly by weather. The NER continues to surge (119% Jan 2020 ridership). Acela slumped again. Every corridor serving Chicago showed a significant percentage drop from December to January, save the Pete Marquette and Illini/Saluki, which were mostly flat. The NER, Ethan Allen, Vermonter, Maple Leaf/Empire West, Empire South, Adirondack, Roanoke Regionals, Newport News Regionals, Norfolk Regionals, Richmond Regionals, Pennsylvanian, Carolinian, Piedmont, Cardinal, Silver Service(s), Capitol Limited, California Zephyr, Southwest Chief, City of New Orleans, Texas Eagle, and Sunset Limited, all showed percentage gains over last month.
 
The Crescent best LD route? That is remarkable as the consist this Jan was less than 2020. Many sold out days this 2024. Without looking at a calendar how many days did Crescent operate in each year south of ATL which may have skewed figures one way or the other? It is those M - TH cancellations in Jan and Feb that skews figurer making comparisons difficult.
 
Septa 9739: Thanks for the research. 20 less in 2024 suggest much better ridership. Have to wonder how the bus substitutions are counted if they are counted at all? Too many ways to do it.
 
The February Monthly Performance Report is out. Again these are monthly, not YTD figures.
The following four routes are between 95%-100% of February FY 2020 ridership:
Downeaster 98% (42,000) In line with previous months
  1. Silver Meteor 98% (20,800) Reclaiming a place
  2. California Zephyr 95% (31,000) Best percentage number since March 2020
  3. Southwest Chief 99% (17,400) Idem
The following ten are less
Acela Express 91% (240,600) In line with last month, and good considering equipment
  1. Keystone Service 80% (93,700) In line with the rest of the year, a significant improvement over last year
  2. Lincoln Service 87% (38,200) Chicago area corridors came back into line this month. Amazing what happens when you run the trains
  3. Hiawatha 78% (46,200)
  4. Wolverines 88% (29,200)
  5. IL Zephyr 77% (9,400)
  6. PacSurf 44% (91,600) Rockslides are again a problem.
  7. Capitol Corridor 57% (79,600) This corridor is a mess (again).
  8. Capitol Limited 86% (9,800) a stunning reversal
  9. Coast Starlight 91% (23,200) in line with the rest of the year
The system showed robust strength in February. Only fourteen trains did not best their February 2020 level, a record of the COVID era, but California still continues to sandbag nationwide ridership. The Surfliner is particularly troubled due to rockslides. The Cascades beat the 2020 number despite rockslides. Chicago area corridors improved with weather. The NER continues to surge (124% Feb 2020 ridership, the best percentage gain of the year). Acela held steady. The Southeast is still surging. The Acela, NER, Vermonter, Maple Leaf/Empire West, Downeaster, Springfield Service, Keystone Service, Empire South, Lincoln Service, Hiawatha, Wolverine, Illini/Saluki, Il Zephyr/Carl Sandburg, Heartland Flyer, Cascades, Capitol Corridor, San Joaquin, Adirondack, Blue Water, Roanoke Regionals, Newport News Regionals, Norfolk Regionals, Richmond Regionals, Missouri River Runner, Pere Marquette, Carolinian, Piedmont, and every long haul train save the Capitol Limited (which is really benefiting from the extra sleeper) and Palmetto (which is doing very well) all showed percentage gains over last month. Only the Pacific Surliner and Coast Starlight carried a fewer number of passengers in February 2024 than February 2023 in absolute terms. (I have no desire to compensate for the leap year.) Particular praise is due to the long haulers, which have shown remarkable recoveries despite “significant headwinds.” About half are reporting ridership more than 110% of February 2020.

Just as a program note, next month will compare March 2024 with March 2019, in keeping with the custom of tracking the twelve months prior to COVID. I think we can look forward to further expansion on the NER, and hopefully, some recovery in California.
 
Septa9739,

Thank you so much for all the time and effort you put into your detailed and informative updates on Amtrak ridership as it returns to pre-COVID levels. (I’m sure that many others appreciate these updates, too.)

It is my believe that the desire for “social distancing” on long distance trains is still very much with us (particularly among seniors) and is creating a demand for private bedrooms and roomettes that is only being limited by the lack of enough roadworthy sleeping cars. Once more sleepers are available, the ridership numbers will probably increase even more.

Again, thank you for your updates.
 
Septa9739 said:
In short: No, I’d love if someone had an evidence based theory.

I suspect at this point it has more to do with the economy/work trends and safety of the Bay Area. It has been just about worst in nation for over a year with no real improvement.
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It is dependent on daily commuter and higher ed traffic. People working hybrid in office/out of office are still enjoying the service, but not every weekday. Then there are the well-publicized problems in San Francisco. AND on top of that a lousy terminal situation in the City.
 
Eric in East County said:
It is my believe that the desire for “social distancing” on long distance trains is still very much with us (particularly among seniors) and is creating a demand for private bedrooms and roomettes that is only being limited by the lack of enough roadworthy sleeping cars. Once more sleepers are available, the ridership numbers will probably increase even more.
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Maybe it's just me and the particular bubble that I live in, but from my perspective any Covid restrictions or fears are by now ancient history and people's behaviors and risk perceptions have largely bounced back to normal. If there is an ongoing upturn in demand for bedrooms and roomettes, it may have to do with people splurging money after having been prevented or discouraged from doing leisure travel for several years. I think you will find that casinos and other tourist destinations are experiencing a similar upturn.
 

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