Opportunity for New Amtrak Equipment

[rickycourtney]

A bit of Memorial Monday Musing for you AU'ers:

I think that Amtrak has a big opportunity to purchase some new equipment at a lower cost now than if they wait another few years:

Superliner III

Nippon-Sharyo is building 130 bi-level coach and cafè cars for California and Midwest (with the option to purchase 300 more).

That presents a great opportunity for Amtrak to place an order for Superliner III cars at a lower cost because the Nippon-Sharyo factory will already be "tooled" to create bi-level car bodies and frames. Since many of the parts between the Superliners and the bi-level inter-city cars are shared... Amtrak (and the states) could benefit from an "economy of scale."

If nothing else, Amtrak could take advantage of some of those options and add long-distance coaches to the fleet for a bargain compared to buying later (assuming some modifications are allowed.)

Diesel Locomotives

California and the Midwestern states are also looking to purchase 35 new diesel locomotives (built to the PRIIA Section 305 standards, which Amtrak helped develop). Again, with the factories and plans already in place it presents a good opportunity for Amtrak to replace the P42 fleet with one consistent locomotive model which should save money (at least that was the theory with the new ACS-64 fleet.)

I realize the monumental problem will be getting funding for new equipment considering our current politial climate. I also realize that to some extent Amtrak needs to go through a competitive bidding process to buy new equipment.

But it seems to me that Amtrak could get a lot more bang for their buck by buying now.

So AU'ers... your thoughts?

 

[Ryan]

Have you read Amtrak's fleet strategy plan?

 

[rickycourtney]

Have you read Amtrak's fleet strategy plan?

I have.

It calls for 508 bi-level cars (including Surfliner, Superliner and Parlor cars) and 280 diesel locomotives to be replaced in over the next 11 years.

My point is... now would be a great time to place the order for that equipment, instead of waiting another few years (deliveries for bi-level cars don't start until 2018 in the plan,) since the factories will be open and operating.

 

[chakk]

Even if the exterior car bodies for the Nippon-Sharyo are similar to what Amtrak would need for bi-level cars, the interior arrangements would be dramatically different, and some of the exterior arrangements would need to be different for use as LD passenger cars. Notably, replacing the double door openings with single door openings, and providing seating in the coaches that would be comfortable for LD travel. The existing bi-level coaches, as configured, on the California Pacific Surfliner, Capitol Corridor, and San Joaquin trainsets would not be acceptable for overnight, long distance travel on most, if not all, of the other LD routes served by bi-level Amtrak equipment.

 

[afigg]

I have.It calls for 508 bi-level cars (including Surfliner, Superliner and Parlor cars) and 280 diesel locomotives to be replaced in over the next 11 years.

My point is... now would be a great time to place the order for that equipment, instead of waiting another few years (deliveries for bi-level cars don't start until 2018 in the plan,) since the factories will be open and operating.

And the schedule in the V3.1 of the Fleet Strategy Plan has been thrown out the window. Sometimes in the past few days, Amtrak has posted the revised FY2013 budget and business plan, the FY2014 Budget Request Justification and the FY2013-2017 Five Year Financial Plan under the Comprehensive Business Plan header on the Reports & Documents webpage. I saw the documents yesterday and have been debating how to start a thread on them because there is a lot of material and discussions in those documents on Amtrak plans, budget shortfalls, extreme uncertainty in funding levels going forward and the reality of paying for new equipment orders while there are so many other critical NEC projects to pay for.

The three documents have a lot of overlap in the content, but they focus on different aspects and time frames. The business reorganization is part of the reason for postponing equipment orders beyond the equipment ordered - 130 Viewliner IIs, 70 ACS-64s, the 130 bi-levels & 35 diesel locomotives being ordered by the states and the planned Acela II order. In the FY14 budget request justification, the new acquisition plan schedule calls for new single level cars & diesel locomotives starting in 2019, and Superliner replacements not starting until 2021. The emphasis is on getting funding to complete the Viewliner II order, pay for the ACS-64s, execute Early Buyout Options of equipment leases to reduce debt, and buy 12 new HSR trainsets. And pay for a lot of NEC related projects, including superstorm Sandy aftermath.

There is a serious dash of ice cold water in the new budget and financial planning documents with regards to many of the ideas posted here.

 

[[email protected]]

When one examines Amtrak eqipment needs, it is starting to realize that in many circumstances Amtak is operating with equipment older than that from which they began operations with. Would you board a plane that was built in 1948, as is the case with some of Amtrak's heritage fleet? I agree that with the recent shut down of our government and its inability to do any long term budgetary planning, purchasing euipment in this climate would be problematic. However, the point is well taken that with the recent order of equipment; now is the time to keep the plants operating. The Budd Company and Pullman Standard might still be in business today if consistent orders came thru. Could you imagine if our defense department only placed sporadic equipment orders for defense business? I guarantee that the defense department would never allow this to happen. Interest rates are at historic lows, now is the time for Amtrak to enter into euipment leasing contracts. Amtrak needs to realize that for the first time it has an administration wanting it to succeed. The recent ridership levels support an investment in Amtrak. The adminsitration needs to remind Senator Cruz and the Tea Party Republicans that it was their party that created Amtrak under Republican President Richard Nixon and Secretary of Transportation Volpe.

 

[OlympianHiawatha]

Would you board a plane that was built in 1948, as is the case with some of Amtrak's heritage fleet?

As fast as I could get to the airport and then some. The last classic I flew on was N6937C, the Airline History Museum's 1049H (G) Constellation and always felt safer on that plane than on any commercial flight.

 

[Nathanael]

Even if the exterior car bodies for the Nippon-Sharyo are similar to what Amtrak would need for bi-level cars, the interior arrangements would be dramatically different, and some of the exterior arrangements would need to be different for use as LD passenger cars. Notably, replacing the double door openings with single door openings, and providing seating in the coaches that would be comfortable for LD travel.

The seating is a trivial change, I am told; apparently seating in all modern coaches is on rails and they just slide in and out. Order a different set of chairs, space them out differently, you're done!

I would actually suggest that the double doors to be retained on long-distance passenger cars for Amtrak. Although they require some extra maintenance, and reduce the room for seats slightly, they have advantages for boarding and deboarding.

If they are not retained, simply "plugging" one pair of doors would be sufficient, and easy.

The new staircase design should certaily be retained as it is preferable to the Superliner staircase design.

So I guess I'm saying that making long-distance coaches wouldn't involve significant changes to the bilevel coach design. Since there are bilevel cafes being made too, that wouldn't involve significant changes either. Making sleepers or diners or lounges would involve significant interior changes, though.

On the other hand, the arrival of the corridor bilevels should free up a number of existing Superliner coaches, so unless growth is massive, Amtrak may not really need a bunch more coaches soon. (A bunch more diners and sleepers and lounges, yes, but as noted that would require substantial redesign.)

On the third hand, growth has been massive! If growth continues at upwards of 4% per year, Amtrak may want additional coaches.

On the fourth hand, with massive growth, rather than adding additional cars to the long-distance trains, it may make the most sense to add additional corridor trains (Minneapolis-St. Paul to Chicago, for example, or even Denver to Chicago). And if that happens, first of all, the new bilevels might be exactly right (even unmodified) -- and secondly, the states involved might be expected to pay for the additional rolling stock.

Perhaps, then, the correct thing to do is for Amtrak to talk to the *states* which have been toying with improved service, such as Oklahoma and Minnesota, or which might consider it (such as Iowa, Indiana, or Colorado), and encourage *the states* to get and exercise options on the bilevel order before the factory shuts down. This would not require the use of *Amtrak's* scarce capital. The first bilevels don't roll off the line until 2015, it'll probably be running until 2017, so the states have a few years to tag on.

 

[jphjaxfl]

In the 1960s, private Railroads often brought out heavy weight passenger cars built in the 1920s. On the B&O, I once rode on a heavy weight Parlor Car built for the Royal Blue subbing as a coach on crowded train due the summer. L&N used heavy weight Dining Car built in 1926 as sub for the Counter Lounge on the Pan American right up to Amtrak. I have never been concerned about traveling on an old passenger train car.

 

[Anderson]

Would you board a plane that was built in 1948, as is the case with some of Amtrak's heritage fleet?

As fast as I could get to the airport and then some. The last classic I flew on was N6937C, the Airline History Museum's 1049H (G) Constellation and always felt safer on that plane than on any commercial flight.

Well, let me ask a question: If Amtrak couldn't get a new set of cars in the near(er) term, should they become available would it be worthwhile for Amtrak to grab equipment from VIA? In my mind, that's not even a question...of course they should. Ideally, Amtrak would be able to get all new equipment, but...well, we're not in an ideal situation. If we were, Amtrak would be a lot bigger.

With airliners, if the equipment has been inspected and part replacements made on a competent schedule, then the age of the equipment is a non-issue ceteris paribus. Actually, with all the issues they've been having, I'd probably prefer that Constellation to a Dreamliner.

 

[rickycourtney]

The seating is a trivial change, I am told; apparently seating in all modern coaches is on rails and they just slide in and out. Order a different set of chairs, space them out differently, you're done!

These new bi-level cars go a step further than that... not only are the seats in tracks... so are the galley modules (for serving coffee and snacks in business class) and the overhead light units. That means with just a few hours in the shop, a crew can convert a Coachclass car... to a Businessclass car. You just pop out a few seats, side the remaining seats around to create more legroom, move the lights to match and pop in the galley module.

I would actually suggest that the double doors to be retained on long-distance passenger cars for Amtrak. Although they require some extra maintenance, and reduce the room for seats slightly, they have advantages for boarding and deboarding.

If they are not retained, simply "plugging" one pair of doors would be sufficient, and easy.

The new staircase design should certaily be retained as it is preferable to the Superliner staircase design.

I don't really think it's that hard to tweak the body design to just have one door in the middle... that being said... I agree, why not have two doors on each side?

I love the straight staircases. That being said... it does take up a lot of room.

So I guess I'm saying that making long-distance coaches wouldn't involve significant changes to the bilevel coach design. Since there are bilevel cafes being made too, that wouldn't involve significant changes either. Making sleepers or diners or lounges would involve significant interior changes, though.

Agreed... it would take several design changes to make these coaches work as a sleeping car or a new dining car. But making a new car with a different interior is much easier... when you already have a factory that's making a similar car.

Consider the Viewliner II cars that are being built:

The body shell for the baggage car isn't substantially redesigned to become a shell for a diner, sleeper or dorm. CAF just cuts out different holes and drops in the proper interior modules. (I realize that's not how the Superliner I/II were built... but nobody says the Superliner III can't be built that way.)

On the other hand, the arrival of the corridor bilevels should free up a number of existing Superliner coaches, so unless growth is massive, Amtrak may not really need a bunch more coaches soon. (A bunch more diners and sleepers and lounges, yes, but as noted that would require substantial redesign.)

On the third hand, growth has been massive! If growth continues at upwards of 4% per year, Amtrak may want additional coaches.

On the fourth hand, with massive growth, rather than adding additional cars to the long-distance trains, it may make the most sense to add additional corridor trains (Minneapolis-St. Paul to Chicago, for example, or even Denver to Chicago). And if that happens, first of all, the new bilevels might be exactly right (even unmodified) -- and secondly, the states involved might be expected to pay for the additional rolling stock.

Perhaps, then, the correct thing to do is for Amtrak to talk to the *states* which have been toying with improved service, such as Oklahoma and Minnesota, or which might consider it (such as Iowa, Indiana, or Colorado), and encourage *the states* to get and exercise options on the bilevel order before the factory shuts down. This would not require the use of *Amtrak's* scarce capital. The first bilevels don't roll off the line until 2015, it'll probably be running until 2017, so the states have a few years to tag on.

If more states want to order these new bi-level intercity cars... that would be great.

Their passengers would like them a lot more than the Amfleet and Horizon cars.

We love them out here in California and we're groaning about having to temporarily go back to single-level equipment on the San Joaquin.

 

[NE933]

Well, with this new PRIIA 2008 requirement in place for states to cover 80% <> of costs to train routes under 750 miles, that frees up quite a bit cash I would think for new railcars and locomotives, not to mention badly needed track, signal, and on the NEC, catenary fixing.

Joe Boardman says of this in the latest press release that Amtrak is ready to go forward with expansion and improvements. Anybody care to muse of whether or not this means his pen in hand is ready to sign some purchase orders?

 

[Anderson]

Well, with this new PRIIA 2008 requirement in place for states to cover 80% <> of costs to train routes under 750 miles, that frees up quite a bit cash I would think for new railcars and locomotives, not to mention badly needed track, signal, and on the NEC, catenary fixing.

Joe Boardman says of this in the latest press release that Amtrak is ready to go forward with expansion and improvements. Anybody care to muse of whether or not this means his pen in hand is ready to sign some purchase orders?

Probably once the shutdown situation cools off a bit. It's probably more likely that we'll see either a "piggyback" order on the multistate bilevel order, an exercise of some Viewliner II options, or references to the Acela II project pick up. Bear in mind that with the multistate cars coming online, a lot of Amfleets and Horizons are going to be freed up, as well as some Superliners.

 

[afigg]

Well, with this new PRIIA 2008 requirement in place for states to cover 80% <> of costs to train routes under 750 miles, that frees up quite a bit cash I would think for new railcars and locomotives, not to mention badly needed track, signal, and on the NEC, catenary fixing.

Joe Boardman says of this in the latest press release that Amtrak is ready to go forward with expansion and improvements. Anybody care to muse of whether or not this means his pen in hand is ready to sign some purchase orders?

CA is contributing $19 million more, it looks like NY about $15 million more in state subsidies. Those are likely the 2 largest state increases, although I have not seen numbers for how much MI agreed to pay for FY2013. We don't have a reliable number on how much in additional payments Amtrak will be getting from the states, but it might be in the $80 million range. It is a useful amount of money, but it only frees up some of the operating subsidy. Which Congress will cut in future appropriations, but may or may not keep the total Amtrak funding at the same level, so the capital grant can be increased. The biggest benefit in the longer term from the requirement that state provide subsides for their corridor trains could well be that it provide incentive for the state to start or increase funding for capital improvement projects for stations and track upgrades for better service.

The expansion and improvements likely means just that Amtrak will proceed with completing the ACS-64 and 130 unit CAF Viewliner II order, with the bid process for the Acela IIs, and those Stair Step NEC upgrades that they can afford or get grants for. It is quite clear from the FY2013-17 Five Year Financial Plan and repeated public statement from Boardman that buying replacements for the Superliners and Amfleets is postponed until after FY2017 unless Congress comes up with funding. Getting the requested $3.3 billion in federal funding over the next 5 years for the proposed FY13-FY17 NEC upgrade program by itself is a major challenge.

As Anderson noted, the 130 Corridor bi-levels will free up some Amfleets and Superliners, most of the Horizons for use elsewhere. I expect CA will buy additional bi-levels as will other states not currently part of the 4 state program.

One result of the shutdown and coming damn close to a default on the debt is improved prospects for a more rail friendly political environment after the 2014 elections. But it may not play out that way. Only time will tell.

 

[Trogdor]

When one examines Amtrak eqipment needs, it is starting to realize that in many circumstances Amtak is operating with equipment older than that from which they began operations with. Would you board a plane that was built in 1948, as is the case with some of Amtrak's heritage fleet? I agree that with the recent shut down of our government and its inability to do any long term budgetary planning, purchasing euipment in this climate would be problematic. However, the point is well taken that with the recent order of equipment; now is the time to keep the plants operating. The Budd Company and Pullman Standard might still be in business today if consistent orders came thru. Could you imagine if our defense department only placed sporadic equipment orders for defense business? I guarantee that the defense department would never allow this to happen. Interest rates are at historic lows, now is the time for Amtrak to enter into euipment leasing contracts. Amtrak needs to realize that for the first time it has an administration wanting it to succeed. The recent ridership levels support an investment in Amtrak. The adminsitration needs to remind Senator Cruz and the Tea Party Republicans that it was their party that created Amtrak under Republican President Richard Nixon and Secretary of Transportation Volpe.

This post seems rather naive, especially that last bit about trying to connect Cruz and the Tea Party to the Republican Party of 1970. Because, if only Obama could show the Tea Party how today's Democratic Party is essentially the Republican Party of the 70s (Amtrak, Clean Water Act, etc.), then they'd all come together and sing Kumbaya and everybody would be happy.