Missouri River Runner in question

[RichardK]

I saw this article posted on the Facebook page for Amtrak. They claim the cost for operation of one train is $9600, yet the average revenue is just $3600. At a current fare of $29, this would make the average ridership 124. What is the normal consist of this train and what is the capacity? While they say it is popular,I would like to know the average load factor on this train. Amtrak's national average is about 50%, I think. Would a higher load factor result in at least a break even?

http://www.kansascity.com/2013/05/12/4231935/communities-want-rail-service.html#

 

[Paulus]

$9600 is actually on the cheap end for train costs. For FY12, occupancy was a reasonably healthy 49%. The problem is the ticket prices; they average 13.8¢ per passenger mile and, like most trains, the cost per seat mile is about 20¢; fares would need to more than double in order for it to break even assuming no ridership loss (which would likely occur). Of course, you could probably reduce that with a longer consist (with more seats and therefore a lower cost per seat-mile), but that would depend on filling the new seats as well.

 

[jis]

Well it also depends on how you increase the number of available seat miles. If you take the cheap approach and just add a car to existing trains, which not running anywhere near full, it is not likely to have a huge positive impact on revenues to get requisite increase in revenue per seat mile, or even keep that number constant. OTOH, if you take the more expensive aaproach and add a frequency filling a gap in the timetable then while your CASM might go up more, you probably standa a better chance of getting mroe dramatic increase in revenues, hopefully enough to keep pace with rise in seat miles.

 

[RichardK]

Passenger miles divided by available seat miles equals the load factor. That sounds reasonable, except a train is picking up and dropping off passengers all along the way. This adds complexity to the calculation. One segment of a trip between intermediate stations might have a very low factor and another segment might be very high. An airline flight does not have this complication. The average load factor for a complete trip from end point to end point does not tell the whole story, in the case of Amtrak.