Is there any hope at all for a LAX-BFD connection?

[Bjartmarr]

The subject line pretty much says it all.

I know UP is pretty sticky about letting Amtrak use the tracks over the Tehachapi pass. But hundreds of people daily are willing to stuff themselves into buses for a 2-3 hour drive to BFD in order to get on the San Joaquin; that number would skyrocket if they could board the train at LAX.

Even one train per day each direction would be such a drastic improvement over the current situation, and it could be done with the same equipment: 716 (which currently arrives BFD at 7:26pm and overnights there) could connect through to arrive at LAX around 10pm-ish, and then leave LAX as 714 the next morning at around 8am. And only two trains per day on that stretch of track would be a fairly minor disruption to UP's freight operations.

Okay, your turn, tell me all the reasons this will never happen.

 

[railiner]

Mainly because it takes too long by train (about five hours).

That may be acceptable for an overnite schedule, but not for a daylight trip where passengers are more time-sensitive

 

[neroden]

California High Speed Rail is your best hope for this. UP is frankly hostile to the idea.

 

[Paulus]

Look for a connection running in 2022ish.

 

[neroden]

That's pretty optimistic, Paulus. That's the target date, and there *do* tend to be delays.

 

[afigg]

Look for a connection running in 2022ish.

The 2022 date for the Initial Operational Segment (IOS) from Merced to San Fernando Valley strikes me as very optimistic. To get there, they have to complete two very challenging (and expensive) segments, Bakersfield to Palmdale and Palmdale to San Fenrnando Valley, both with a lot of tunnels to build.

I have not read much about the Bakersfield to Palmdale segment in some time, so I did some digging on the CHSRA website. Found their November, 2014 Project Update to the State Legislature (13 MB, 56 page PDF), so it is a recent status report. The last alternative analysis reports for Bakersfield to Palmdale are from 2012, so they are pushing 3 years old. According to the update to the State Legislature, the current plan is to complete the EIS & PE and get a Record of Decision for the Bakersfield-Palmdale and Palmdale-Burbank segment in 2017.

Then, here is the yea, suuuure part, award design-build contracts and then complete construction for Bakersfield-Palmdale in 2021 and Palmdale-Burbank segment in 2022. Checking a later supplemental route alternative summary report for Bakersfield-Palmdale, the alternatives for the Tehachaphi Incline subsection (~40 miles) vary from 10.3 to 12.8 miles of tunnel and 3.4 to 11 miles of elevated structures. The contractors are going to bore out over 10 miles of tunnels, fit out the tunnels, lay down track, power, signals in 4 years from the word go? I don't think so. BTW. the 2014 baseline estimate in constant dollars (placeholder price) for the Bakersfield-Palmdale is $8.3 billion.

If Gov. Brown wants to have a shot at revenue service on the IOS by the end of 2022, he needs to apply pressure to keep the EIS process moving along and not let it get bogged down, so serious construction can get started while he is still Governor. Otherwise, it could slow down or stall out under his successor (see [insert Governor of your choice here]).

 

[grover5995]

Trains could be running between San Francisco and Fresno/Bakersfield fairly soon. The biggest obstacle is the mountainous territory between Bakersfield and downtown LA. Lots of bridges and tunnels needed to maintain high speed. Once completed, this service could easily handle the majority of passengers currently traveling between the Bay area and Southern CA.

 

[neroden]

Then, here is the yea, suuuure part, award design-build contracts and then complete construction for Bakersfield-Palmdale in 2021 and Palmdale-Burbank segment in 2022. Checking a later supplemental route alternative summary report for Bakersfield-Palmdale, the alternatives for the Tehachaphi Incline subsection (~40 miles) vary from 10.3 to 12.8 miles of tunnel and 3.4 to 11 miles of elevated structures. The contractors are going to bore out over 10 miles of tunnels, fit out the tunnels, lay down track, power, signals in 4 years from the word go?

This is possible, but unlikely. A lot of stuff would have to be built in parallel -- dig all the tunnels at once, dig each tunnel from both ends and possibly the middle, construct the entire elevated structure simultaneously -- and almost everything would have to go right.
I would expect delays between the Record of Decision and the bid awards, actually, due to working out how to segment the bids, and contractors pointing out problems with the initial plans.

 

[Paulus]

We could always dust off Project Carryall to solve any tunnel delay problems.