Fare Buckets discussion 2023 Q4 - 2024

[zephyr17]

Over the years I've found that sleeper buckets are in a rough geometric progression, or each higher bucket is some multiple of the previous one. But the ratio between two adjacent buckets is not constant and increases slightly as the values of successive buckets increase.

Using the SWC/TE Roomette fares (above) as an example, the ratio between the top two buckets is 1.140 and between successively lower pairs of buckets the ratio slowly decreases down to the two lowest buckets found is where it's 1.111. Finding the nth root of the ratio of highest to lowest buckets found yields the average ratio of those (in this case) seven buckets. The root in this case is 6 because there are 6 steps between those seven known buckets. The 6th root of 1624 ÷ 796 is 1.126 and 796 ÷ 1.126 = 707.

This same method was used to estimate the 6 buckets not found between and high and low bucket FR on the Auto Train, but here the 7th root of 1199 ÷ 530 was used because there are 7 steps between those two buckets. How did I know those two buckets found were the high and low? By comparison with those on the previous chart.

There a a few other other ways of estimating a missing bucket, and they give slightly different and usually higher values. Perhaps (in this case) 796 ÷ 1.111 = 716 is a better estimate, but it's just an estimate of the SWC/TE low bucket Roomette fare. Until somebody finds the actual low bucket being offered we won't know for sure. But does anyone really need to know for sure? I, for one, am not anal enough to waste time looking for it. And for all we know, it may never be offered - ever!

Years ago, Coach fares rose in an arithmetic progression in which the difference between successive buckets was some fairly constant value. But coach fares now also rise in a geometric progression as seen in those for the Palmetto. Didn't analyze it's BC fares.

Hope this helps.

Thanks, I was pretty much just curious. I agree it yields a close enough approximation to be useful, which for me is to know about where the lowest possible fare could be in order to judge the fares presented for potential trips. Like you, I doubt we'll seldom, if ever, see a lowest bucket roomette on the TE with only one sleeper. I am kind of surprised they aren't showing up occasionally on the SW Chief though, with it more inventory.

As an aside, I really like the railsforless.us graph, for fares over the requested period. It let's you see in a glance if there are variations.

 

[niemi24s]

Like you, I doubt we'll seldom, if ever, see a lowest bucket roomette on the TE with only one sleeper. I am kind of surprised they aren't showing up occasionally on the SW Chief though, with it more inventory.

But wouldn't the TE/SL combination from CHI to LAX have just as much sleeper inventory as the SWC? But then, it's got only 3/7 the frequency of the SWC.

 

[Sidney]

But wouldn't the TE/SL combination from CHI to LAX have just as much sleeper inventory as the SWC? But then, it's got only 3/7 the frequency of the SWC.

When the TE low bucket roomette was $623 just six months ago, that low bucket could be found on many dates. As I mentioned in an earlier post,I have checked every date for eleven months and the lowest I could find was $989. They still had only one sleeper at $623 . The SW Chief was $600, then $620, then $621 until recently, senior fare. Lowest I can find now is $767.

 

[Keith1951]

I'm going to LA from CHI. I see the longer trip (TE), cost less than the shorter trip (SWC). Just curious as to why?

 

[zephyr17]

Yield management. One has probably sold more of its inventory than the other on your planned day.

According to @niemi24s' chart, the bucket price points are the same for both trains.

I find the situation a little (not a lot) unusual, as the Eagle had less capacity/inventory and the Eagle is higher more often than not as a result.

 

[Keith1951]

This shows three months of CZ Roomette fares:

View attachment 34720

Add $288 for another adult. Deduct $29 for each adult discount.

Please note the As Of date - they could all be different tomorrow.

How do I find Niemi24 list of bucket prices? I'm travelling CHI - LAX April 15, 2025, on the TE or Southwest Chief, which ever has the better price for a bedroom. It's funny that the longer ride is cheaper right now.

 

[trimetbusfan]

How do I find Niemi24 list of bucket prices? I'm travelling CHI - LAX April 15, 2025, on the TE or Southwest Chief, which ever has the better price for a bedroom. It's funny that the longer ride is cheaper right now.

Post in thread 'Long Distance Train Coach & Sleeper Fares (Buckets)'
https://www.amtraktrains.com/thread...oach-sleeper-fares-buckets.77062/post-1041086

 

[Keith1951]

Post in thread 'Long Distance Train Coach & Sleeper Fares (Buckets)'
https://www.amtraktrains.com/thread...oach-sleeper-fares-buckets.77062/post-1041086

Thanks. So, I guess the prices can go higher than the high bucket price listed, correct? That's what I see for my date of travel. Which to me means the high bucket price can have a higher bucket price.

 

[zephyr17]

Ordinarily, I would say that it is far too early to get a good price. However, for months at a time, both near and far out, the lowest available on the SW Chief is a high-ish bucket of $2216, 6th of 8, and the Eagle is mid-high bucket $1951, 5th of 8. I was able to run a month at a time on railsforless.us. Those prices seem frozen. It is odd because even with near term dates in July, I see a date with 7 bedrooms available at $2216 out of 10 total on the SW Chief. I would have thought that that much unsold inventory by now would trigger yield managers to reallocate a bedroom or two into a lower bucket. It does not really look like the trains' yield managers are doing very much, it looks like they set it and forget it. For the Bedrooms at least, didn't look at roomettes.

@niemi24s' chart is at https://www.amtraktrains.com/thread...oach-sleeper-fares-buckets.77062/post-1041086

His research seems to bear out my own findings, because the lowest 4 buckets for the SWC/TE are marked as imputed. That means he could not find actual instances of those buckets, either.

 

[zephyr17]

Thanks. So, I guess the prices can go higher than the high bucket price listed, correct? That's what I see for my date of travel. Which to me means the high bucket price can have a higher bucket price.

Well, there is always the chance that Amtrak increased the bucket prices themselves and @niemi24s hasn't caught up with it yet. But prices he has on the chart line up with actual prices I found on Amtrak.com, which indicates to me he has current pricing captured for SWC/TE.

The top bucket for Bedrooms on the SWC/TE is $2879 for single occupancy. To get the price for two you have to add an additional $290 sleeper rail fare.

For your desired travel date of 4/15/2025 I get $1951 for one adult in a Bedroom, the chart's 5th bucket. Two adults are $2241, $1951+$290 additional sleeper rail fare. While not cheap, that is well below highest bucket of $2879/$3169.