Does anyone know what was actually said beyond the PR here? Likewise, where on earth did the numbers in that PDF/PPT come from? That graphic shows the Silver Service combined slightly in the black, which is /totally/ at odds with last year's PIP, which showed the three at a combined CR of 85%. Likewise, it shows the Auto Train at break-even while last year's PIP showed the AT with over 100% DCR. Any ideas on what's up or how to find out what's up?
All the numbers Amtrak usually provides (in monthly reports, PIPs, etc.) are the next-to-useless "fully allocated" costs, which dump overhead various places. And because railroads are operations with enormous overhead, there's a lot of overhead to dump.
I believe, though I cannot be sure, that the numbers Boardman is presenting here (called "direct" costs) are something approximating the "avoidable" costs (though probably without station costs; who knows what they're doing with those). In short, if the Silver Meteor was cancelled, Amtrak would need a larger federal subsidy. I can easily believe that. Give the Lake Shore Limited a few more sleepers and watch it go into profit too.
Accounting is an art, not a science. You want different types of computations for different purposes, and we really don't know exactly which ones Boardman is using. One thing which makes it hard to compare anything from this year to previous years: Amtrak recently redid its entire accounting system, as ordered by PRIIA, so that it could get agreement on how to allocate costs to states.
Anderson's summary is pretty good.
The Eastern long-distance trains are pretty close to covering their direct costs.
- The Crescent needs cut-off cars at Atlanta (as mentioned in the PIP) so that it's not eating the same costs for the half-empty trip from Atlanta to New Orleans as it is from Atlanta to New York.
- The Cardinal needs to go daily and needs to be longer. And needs a faster route from Indianapolis to Chicago, of course.
- I don't know what to do about the Silver Star; the backtracking to Tampa has to be hurting it.
- The Capitol Limited appears to have hit a ridership/revenue wall, in that not that many people go between Chicago and DC; hooking it to a revived Broadway Limited, loosely what was proposed in the PIP, would probably be an improvement (more people go between Philadelphia and Chicago).
- The City of New Orleans probably has a similar problem to the Crescent (ridership dropping off as one goes south), but I'm not sure where you'd put the cut-off cars. Memphis?
The Western trains cost a lot to operate and suffer from going through low-ridership areas, but even there there is room for examination of detail.
In particular, the California Zephyr performs badly financially because of the very long, slow mountain crossings between Denver and Salt Lake and between Salt Lake and Sacramento; this also includes the sections with lowest ridership. It requires more trainsets than any of the other transcontinentals.
I would love to see a nominal breakdown of costs and revenue between Denver-Chicago and Denver-California. I would bet Denver-Chicago, which on its own could be operated with two trainsets -- and they could be quite long, not having to go up mountains -- is doing much better than Denver-California. Before Iowa's legislature got taken over by crazy anti-rail nuts who refused free money for rail, Iowa was proposing a 79mph or 110mph Iowa Interstate (old Rock Island) corridor from Omaha to Chicago, hitting most of the major cities in Iowa. Reroute the Denver-Chicago route over that, and you could have a very successful "Denver Zephyr" which would probably do as well or better than the City of New Orleans.
Similarly, get a corridor from Chicago *through Madison* to Minneapolis, run the Empire Builder on it, and watch performance improve. The Empire Builder does better than the other transcontinentals due to the heavy online traffic from small towns, but skipping Madison hurts it a lot.
The Coast Starlight is probably also suffering from "mountain" expenses due to the mountain crossing between California and Oregon. It also has a poor revenue seating percentage in its consist, due to the "Arcade Car" (though they're planning to fix that) and the PPC. Also abnormally high maintenance costs due to the PPC. Although there's enough demand to lengthen the train, the mountain crossings mean that this would likely require additional engines. At the moment I see no way of improving it, and it's important to maintain the links which it provides; perhaps after various California rail projects are built it will become more obvious what to do.
The Southwest Chief suffers from running what is really a very short train over a very long distance. The lack of intermediate traffic generators is what keeps the train short. Reroute through Amarillo and Wichita, please! If you also extend the Heartland Flyer to Wichita, you'll start to get network effects (Albuquerque to Fort Worth, etc.)
The Sunset Limited -- well, again, less-than-daily is no good, but also missing Phoenix is no good, as we all know.
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I'll say something else about the numbers in this presentation: they "feel right" to me as avoidable-cost numbers, which the usual numbers do not (though of course the usual numbers aren't avoidable-cost numbers). I've never believed numbers which make the Lake Shore Limited look like a poor performer, given the large number of cars, high occupancy, high prices, and relatively good speed. With these numbers, there's no relationship between two trains' numbers where my reaction is "No way, that one can't be performing worse financially than that one, that's absurd". With the usual numbers, that IS my reaction.
One thing to consider, Paulus: the Capitol Corridor is probably paying more to Union Pacific than the Palmetto is paying to CSX, for reasons of history (Capitol Corridor was "new service", Palmetto wasn't).