"Lynchburger" Beats Projections

[WhoozOn1st]

From the Lynchburg News & Advance:

Amtrak's Lynchburg-Washington line beats projections

"Fares produced $414,000, which was 87 percent more than expected and almost enough to cover the cost of operating the train. Virginia has budgeted a monthly subsidy of $242,000 for the train, but only $48,000 of that will be needed for October, according to figures Page gave the transportation board."

 

[Long Train Runnin']

I guess this service was a little over do :lol: Thats good to see though!

 

[Bob Dylan]

From the Lynchburg News & Advance:
Amtrak's Lynchburg-Washington line beats projections

"Fares produced $414,000, which was 87 percent more than expected and almost enough to cover the cost of operating the train. Virginia has budgeted a monthly subsidy of $242,000 for the train, but only $48,000 of that will be needed for October, according to figures Page gave the transportation board."

This is good news indeed, perhaps the economy is improving and people are deciding that riding the train is the way to go!

 

[Rafi]

This is great news for that route and makes one wonder what those numbers will be if/when the train is extended to Roanoke. Those of you who are familiar with the area know that Roanoke represents a huge untapped market for Amtrak, with an enormous amount of pent-up demand for rail service (flights in and out of Roanoke are very pricey).

Rafi

 

[Ryan]

This bodes well for more service. I think that Rafi posted in a thread here that folks were starting to talk about maybe trying to speed up the line's extension to Roanoke. Perhaps my dream of taking the train back to HokieTown may become a reality after all!

Edit: Speak of the devil and there he is!

 

[rrdude]

This is great news for that route and makes one wonder what those numbers will be if/when the train is extended to Roanoke. Those of you who are familiar with the area know that Roanoke represents a huge untapped market for Amtrak, with an enormous amount of pent-up demand for rail service (flights in and out of Roanoke are very pricey).
Rafi

No kidding Rafi! I canx a trip there, mostly BC of the cost of air fare, and it is a long drive from the DC area too. I'm sure it's years off, but Amtrak would do well to service this old community.........

 

[wayman]

This bodes well for more service. I think that Rafi posted in a thread here that folks were starting to talk about maybe trying to speed up the line's extension to Roanoke. Perhaps my dream of taking the train back to HokieTown may become a reality after all!
Edit: Speak of the devil and there he is!

"Fast-tracking" (so to speak) the extension to Roanoke was already being discussed by Thanksgiving, according to Lynchburg Amtrak station personnel. The release of these official data can only encourage that!

Sadly, through skimming the News & Advance article comments I learned that Virginia Delegate Shannon Valentine from Lynchburg, who had been a vocal advocate for this train (against which there was some pretty vocal opposition, no state subsidies, etc), lost her re-election bid this November by 209 votes. I wonder if, had numbers demonstrating the overwhelming success of the new train been available sooner, that might have helped her... oh well.

 

[Ryan]

This bodes well for more service. I think that Rafi posted in a thread here that folks were starting to talk about maybe trying to speed up the line's extension to Roanoke. Perhaps my dream of taking the train back to HokieTown may become a reality after all!
Edit: Speak of the devil and there he is!

"Fast-tracking" (so to speak) the extension to Roanoke was already being discussed by Thanksgiving, according to Lynchburg Amtrak station personnel. The release of these official data can only encourage that!

Sadly, through skimming the News & Advance article comments I learned that Virginia Delegate Shannon Valentine from Lynchburg, who had been a vocal advocate for this train (against which there was some pretty vocal opposition, no state subsidies, etc), lost her re-election bid this November by 209 votes. I wonder if, had numbers demonstrating the overwhelming success of the new train been available sooner, that might have helped her... oh well.

Was it you that posted that? If so, my apologizes for the misattribution.

 

[railiner]

This is good news! But if an extension to Roanoke is in the works, why stop there? Push on to Bristol, Knoxville, Chattanooga, Memphis......!!!

Little Rock, Oklahoma City, Amarillo, ....well, you get the idea!!!!

 

[ALC Rail Writer]

Part of me wonders how much of this is "novelty" and whether or not the numbers will slide off in the coming months -- though with numbers these strong I imagine that the slide off won't be too great.

Overall, good job Lynchburger!!

 

[transit54]

Part of me wonders how much of this is "novelty" and whether or not the numbers will slide off in the coming months -- though with numbers these strong I imagine that the slide off won't be too great.
Overall, good job Lynchburger!!

Interesting point. My experience in transit is that as time goes on, ridership builds. There's usually a lag after the start of service as people get used to the new service and make the decision to try it versus their standard way of commuting. Whether that holds true in an intercity rail context, I'm not sure. However, the large numbers could also be because of the holiday travel period - they probably estimated year-round ridership and divided it by 12, rather than adjust for the seasonal variations in ridership (though I could be wrong). However I don't think you'd see this strong a showing and then have it slide all the way back to the original projections, which are typically conservative anyway.

 

[ALC Rail Writer]

That was only for October, Holiday traffic would be non-existant I would think...

 

[TampAGS]

This bodes well for more service. I think that Rafi posted in a thread here that folks were starting to talk about maybe trying to speed up the line's extension to Roanoke. Perhaps my dream of taking the train back to HokieTown may become a reality after all!

I too eagerly hope for the opportunity to ride the rails into Roanoke!

 

Regardless, it is nice to see Lynchburg's facility receiving so many passengers, and during hours that aren't ridiculously late/early.

 

[zoltan]

We might see a dip from the novelty effect wearing off, but I suspect that would only be a dip and it would recover, as it takes time for people to start organising their activities around trains, or even just getting to know a train exists.

 

[Rafi]

This bodes well for more service. I think that Rafi posted in a thread here that folks were starting to talk about maybe trying to speed up the line's extension to Roanoke. Perhaps my dream of taking the train back to HokieTown may become a reality after all!
Edit: Speak of the devil and there he is!

"Fast-tracking" (so to speak) the extension to Roanoke was already being discussed by Thanksgiving, according to Lynchburg Amtrak station personnel. The release of these official data can only encourage that!

Sadly, through skimming the News & Advance article comments I learned that Virginia Delegate Shannon Valentine from Lynchburg, who had been a vocal advocate for this train (against which there was some pretty vocal opposition, no state subsidies, etc), lost her re-election bid this November by 209 votes. I wonder if, had numbers demonstrating the overwhelming success of the new train been available sooner, that might have helped her... oh well.

Was it you that posted that? If so, my apologizes for the misattribution.

Yep, that was Will; not me. The only hard fact I've heard about a timeframe on a Roanoke extension is that the current contract indicates that it has to happen after the first 3 year "trial" of the Lynchburg run, and if Virginia decides (it's really Virginia's decision--not Amtrak's) to run that train to Roanoke, the runtime will have to be negotiated with NS. One would expect that NS will come hat in hand for infrastructure upgrades before they let a scheduled passenger train back on that segment. I can speak from first hand experience riding that line, however, and I can say that the runtime was very, very good between those cities even with the current infrastructure. So good that in my opinion, one could start running service tomorrow and be competitive with driving. Capacity may be another issue, however, and I can't speak to that authoritatively.

Personally, I hope VA sees these numbers and decides to start working on the Roanoke extension early. Perhaps what Will heard indicates that is, in fact the case, but I can't speak to it unfortunately. Amtrak can't even use the existing Greyhound run between Lynchburg Kemper Street Station and Roanoke as a guaranteed Thruway until Virginia formally requests it, which they have not.

But if an extension to Roanoke is in the works, why stop there? Push on to Bristol, Knoxville, Chattanooga, Memphis......!!!

Well, the ultimate "plan" is to have service to Bristol, whether that be this train on a different timetable, or a second frequency, perhaps Bristol to Charlottesville or Bristol to Richmond, or something along those lines. The consensus so far has been, however, that the first step was to get the train to Lynchburg. The next step (again, 3 years later) would be Roanoke, and then and only then would Bristol be considered (probably looking at 6-10 years from now). If Tennessee wants to pony up some cash to bring the train to Tennessee (I'd love to see it connect Nashville and Memphis), Amtrak will listen.

Rafi

 

[wayman]

We might see a dip from the novelty effect wearing off, but I suspect that would only be a dip and it would recover, as it takes time for people to start organising their activities around trains, or even just getting to know a train exists.

I'd expect, all things being equal, to see high ridership for the first month (novelty), then a bit of a dip, then steady increase ... but with this having started in October, I suspect that any dip that we'd normally see for months two and three will be countered (in monthly statistics, though perhaps not dailies) by Thanksgiving and Christmas travel. So it's possible we won't see a dip here for the first few months, and it's possible that regular ridership will start to pick up soon after that ... I have cautious hopes that the monthly numbers won't really show a significant dip at all due to that fortunate timing.

 

[Ryan]

Well, the ultimate "plan" is to have service to Bristol

I assume that once to RNK that the route would pretty much follow 81?

 

[wayman]

Well, the ultimate "plan" is to have service to Bristol

I assume that once to RNK that the route would pretty much follow 81?

I'd guess so. I know NS has a huge capacity improvement project on their line that roughly parallels I-81, in an effort to pull trucking traffic onto the rails. I-81 is way over-capacity with truckers, and it's a tremendously unsafe highway to begin with. In addition to being a good bet for profitability, the NS plan is also a public safety service for motorists. And perhaps with the increased capacity, they'll feel there's a slot or two for a passenger train sometime next decade when Amtrak/Virginia/Tennessee are ready to consider that.

 

[TampAGS]

Personally, I hope VA sees these numbers and decides to start working on the Roanoke extension early. Perhaps what Will heard indicates that is, in fact the case, but I can't speak to it unfortunately. Amtrak can't even use the existing Greyhound run between Lynchburg Kemper Street Station and Roanoke as a guaranteed Thruway until Virginia formally requests it, which they have not.

Have any of our forum members from VA written their state representatives to voice their desire for such a service? Or better yet, for institution of direct rail service?

 

[WhoozOn1st]

Pretty interesting discussion on a topic posted basically as a cheap excuse for saying "Lynchburger."

 

[MikefromCrete]

This is good news! But if an extension to Roanoke is in the works, why stop there? Push on to Bristol, Knoxville, Chattanooga, Memphis......!!!

Little Rock, Oklahoma City, Amarillo, ....well, you get the idea!!!!

Of course the farther you extend the train the more chances for delays and the less chance of it being a reliable choice for Virginia residents to ride, and Virginia would probably drop its sponsorship.

 

[MikefromCrete]

This bodes well for more service. I think that Rafi posted in a thread here that folks were starting to talk about maybe trying to speed up the line's extension to Roanoke. Perhaps my dream of taking the train back to HokieTown may become a reality after all!
Edit: Speak of the devil and there he is!

"Fast-tracking" (so to speak) the extension to Roanoke was already being discussed by Thanksgiving, according to Lynchburg Amtrak station personnel. The release of these official data can only encourage that!

Sadly, through skimming the News & Advance article comments I learned that Virginia Delegate Shannon Valentine from Lynchburg, who had been a vocal advocate for this train (against which there was some pretty vocal opposition, no state subsidies, etc), lost her re-election bid this November by 209 votes. I wonder if, had numbers demonstrating the overwhelming success of the new train been available sooner, that might have helped her... oh well.

She can always run again on a "I told you so" platform.

 

[DET63]

Sadly, through skimming the News & Advance article comments I learned that Virginia Delegate Shannon Valentine from Lynchburg, who had been a vocal advocate for this train (against which there was some pretty vocal opposition, no state subsidies, etc), lost her re-election bid this November by 209 votes. I wonder if, had numbers demonstrating the overwhelming success of the new train been available sooner, that might have helped her... oh well.

Surprising that a Democrat lost an election in which many Democrats defeated Republican incumbents all around the country. Was the train one of the issues she campaigned on?

 

[Rafi]

This is good news! But if an extension to Roanoke is in the works, why stop there? Push on to Bristol, Knoxville, Chattanooga, Memphis......!!!

Little Rock, Oklahoma City, Amarillo, ....well, you get the idea!!!!

Of course the farther you extend the train the more chances for delays and the less chance of it being a reliable choice for Virginia residents to ride, and Virginia would probably drop its sponsorship.

Luckily, extending the current train much past Roanoke will result in an overnight trip in either direction--something both Virginia and Amtrak want to avoid. So if we see service to Bristol or points west of there, I'm betting it'll most likely be in the form of a new frequency as part of the corridor, which will hopefully have a name by then (I couldn't call that a Northeast Regional train and keep a straight face). So if I had to speculate (and this is just that--speculation), you'd have the current train running Boston/SPG to Roanoke and then another train running Bristol to a major Amtrak gateway (ie connection) city. Richmond would be the obvious choice there, assuming something can be worked out with NS for the LYH-RVM segment. But this is really far into the future at this point. I think Roanoke is a suitable goal for now!

Rafi

 

[George Harris]

There was a study done for VaDOT several years ago on running a Bristol to Washingon service. The cost and ridership projections were such that it sank without a trace. That, despite having some very optomistic run time projections.