I believe that something will happen on the gulf coast *eventually*, but I don't see anything by 2020 somehow. Those states don't have strong rail advocacy and even if they did and I was living there, I would be advocating for service to some of the major cities in AL and MS that presently don't have anything rather than something along the coast where there is pretty much nothing comparable and the only reason for talking about it is nostalgia for the old but shortlived Sunset.
I think there needs to be a train connecting Florida and Texas, the two largest Southern states. I don't think nostalgia is the only factor.
I'm also not big on the "advocacy" angle (I know, it's an advocacy forum). But I feel that "if you build it, they will come". I don't think Floridians have less support for trains than other states. If they had the same trains as AL and MS, they would support them (with their wallets) as much as if not more. Like it or not, Amtrak's biggest markets by ridership are still in the most part the big cities with some exceptions like Albany. Clearly you take a large population base near other large population bases. I don't believe in "who needs the train more". Just because other transportation exists in PHL doesn't mean they don't want trains any less than those with fewer options. We can argue about the demand for LD service and yet most of us on this site probably have traveled at least overnight on Amtrak several times. You know there's a market. If Point A and Point B are huge population centers and/or large markets, I think a train between them would be supported.
Was the "old Sunset East" not popular? The last data I have from 2004 (
NARPtrains2004.pdf) shows several Florida to other cities pairs.
Of SL passengers in 200 ,
4.2% traveled from ORL to NOL
3.9% traveled from ORL to LAX.
Among passengers traveling to NOL, the most popular destination was LAX (8.7%). ORL was second (3.9%), higher than both HOU (2.8%) and SAS (2.1%).
So I think there is demand for Florida to NOL/Texas/beyond. Small markets probably "need" Amtrak more and might be "louder", but the large markets with a chance speak with their wallets and I feel that should be the most important to Amtrak.