neroden
Engineer
Figured I'd share it here.
I make the simplifying assumption that all your recreational spending is spent on Amtrak tickets whenever possible, so that money towards Amtrak tickets is equivalent to cash back. If that is not true for you, this analysis will not be entirely accurate!
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First: the points are worth about 2.816855 cents normally.
This is what I found most recently for sleeper reservations, anyway. I use this as the baseline point value, because most of us cash our points in for sleepers.
Business class is usually a slightly better point value, so cashing in your points for business class is the best deal. But business class tickets are cheap enough I've just never managed to spend that many points on business class.
Coach is usually substantially worse point value, and Acela is always worse point value. So value the points based on using them for sleepers. The points are worth about 2.816855 cents if you don't have any discounts on your cash fares.
If you usually get the RPA discount, the disability discount, or another 10% discount, which doesn't apply to points, then the points are worth about 2.535175 cents.
This is all without the card. For Amtrak spending, *without* the card, joining AGR gives you 2 points per cash dollar spent on Amtrak, which is the equivalent of 5.663710% cash back for those without discounts or 5.070350% for those with discounts. (Higher for business class or Acela spending.) Since joining AGR is free, this means joining AGR is always a good idea.
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With Rail Passengers Association membership being $60/year, the 10% discount on Amtrak travel means it pays for itself if, without it, you were spending more than $600/year in cash (not points) on Amtrak and you don't have any other discounts. I generally have other discounts, since I am travelling with my disabled girlfriend, so I am a member solely because I want to advocate for better rail service. However, if you don't have any other discounts, it may make sense to join just for the discount.
If you are spending nothing on Amtrak during the year because all your trips are paid for by points from using the credit card, however, then a discount on cash fares may be irrelevant. See below.
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Now for the card. I am only looking at the fee card.
With the card, you get "5% points back" on redemptions, increasing the effective point value to 2.965111 for those without discounts, or 2.668605 for those with discounts (although you need a "points cushion" in order to do the redemptions).
For me, this second number is the one to memorize: 2.668605 cents is the actual value of an Amtrak point to me.
The card with the fee gives you one point per dollar spent, which is therefore equivalent to 2.965111% cash back for those without discounts, or 2.668605% cash back for those with discounts. This is quite good! I don't know of any card with a higher "general spending" return rate, though I know of many with higher rates for particular types of spending.
For travel spending which is not Amtrak, double this: 5.930221% for those without discounts, 5.337211% for those with discounts.
For spending on Amtrak with the card, you end up getting 5 points per dollar spent on Amtrak, which comes out to 14.825555% back for those without discounts, or 13.343025% for those with discounts. Subtracting the baseline value for being in AGR, this is an improvement of 9.161845% for those without discounts or 8.272675% for those with discounts.
The annual fee is a reasonable $79/year. This fee, therefore, covers itself for a person with discounts if you put $2960.35 on the credit card in any way for anything during the year (which I do); after that you are getting the return rates listed above. This probably applies to most people, as most people have that much in ordinary expenses they are already paying which can be directed through a credit card (pay it off each month!!!).
If you do not have discounts, the breakeven point is lower: $2664.32. If you spend any money at all on travel or Amtrak (I didn't in 2020 because of the pandemic), the breakeven point comes significantly earlier: $862.27 spent on Amtrak would do it for someone without discounts, or $954.95 for someone with discounts. Conclusion: card is worth it.
I make the simplifying assumption that all your recreational spending is spent on Amtrak tickets whenever possible, so that money towards Amtrak tickets is equivalent to cash back. If that is not true for you, this analysis will not be entirely accurate!
----
First: the points are worth about 2.816855 cents normally.
This is what I found most recently for sleeper reservations, anyway. I use this as the baseline point value, because most of us cash our points in for sleepers.
Business class is usually a slightly better point value, so cashing in your points for business class is the best deal. But business class tickets are cheap enough I've just never managed to spend that many points on business class.
Coach is usually substantially worse point value, and Acela is always worse point value. So value the points based on using them for sleepers. The points are worth about 2.816855 cents if you don't have any discounts on your cash fares.
If you usually get the RPA discount, the disability discount, or another 10% discount, which doesn't apply to points, then the points are worth about 2.535175 cents.
This is all without the card. For Amtrak spending, *without* the card, joining AGR gives you 2 points per cash dollar spent on Amtrak, which is the equivalent of 5.663710% cash back for those without discounts or 5.070350% for those with discounts. (Higher for business class or Acela spending.) Since joining AGR is free, this means joining AGR is always a good idea.
----
With Rail Passengers Association membership being $60/year, the 10% discount on Amtrak travel means it pays for itself if, without it, you were spending more than $600/year in cash (not points) on Amtrak and you don't have any other discounts. I generally have other discounts, since I am travelling with my disabled girlfriend, so I am a member solely because I want to advocate for better rail service. However, if you don't have any other discounts, it may make sense to join just for the discount.
If you are spending nothing on Amtrak during the year because all your trips are paid for by points from using the credit card, however, then a discount on cash fares may be irrelevant. See below.
----
Now for the card. I am only looking at the fee card.
With the card, you get "5% points back" on redemptions, increasing the effective point value to 2.965111 for those without discounts, or 2.668605 for those with discounts (although you need a "points cushion" in order to do the redemptions).
For me, this second number is the one to memorize: 2.668605 cents is the actual value of an Amtrak point to me.
The card with the fee gives you one point per dollar spent, which is therefore equivalent to 2.965111% cash back for those without discounts, or 2.668605% cash back for those with discounts. This is quite good! I don't know of any card with a higher "general spending" return rate, though I know of many with higher rates for particular types of spending.
For travel spending which is not Amtrak, double this: 5.930221% for those without discounts, 5.337211% for those with discounts.
For spending on Amtrak with the card, you end up getting 5 points per dollar spent on Amtrak, which comes out to 14.825555% back for those without discounts, or 13.343025% for those with discounts. Subtracting the baseline value for being in AGR, this is an improvement of 9.161845% for those without discounts or 8.272675% for those with discounts.
The annual fee is a reasonable $79/year. This fee, therefore, covers itself for a person with discounts if you put $2960.35 on the credit card in any way for anything during the year (which I do); after that you are getting the return rates listed above. This probably applies to most people, as most people have that much in ordinary expenses they are already paying which can be directed through a credit card (pay it off each month!!!).
If you do not have discounts, the breakeven point is lower: $2664.32. If you spend any money at all on travel or Amtrak (I didn't in 2020 because of the pandemic), the breakeven point comes significantly earlier: $862.27 spent on Amtrak would do it for someone without discounts, or $954.95 for someone with discounts. Conclusion: card is worth it.