Pennsylvanian may end

[AlanB]

I would be interested to hear where you number comes from as the current FY2013 budget estimate is a shortfall of anywhere from $540 million to 1 Billion http://paindependent.com/2013/02/number-crunchers-offer-different-pa-deficit-estimates/

I certainly like your number better than what I am finding - so please let us know.

His number is the shortfall for funding the Pennsy, what the State will have to find to keep the train running. He's not talking about the State's entire shortfall for all spending within the state, which is what you linked to; just what they'd have to find to keep the Pennsy running.

 

[Anderson]

Ironically, I think PA's problem on some level is that they weren't able to maintain more than one train per day through the state. Let's lay out an alternate way things might have played out: The Broadway survives while the LSL gets cut, and Amtrak opts to maintain the Pennsylvanian to Chicago as well while the upstate services get a trim. This could easily have been justified with marginally different numbers and political calculuses (such a setup would probably serve PA and OH better than the current situation while screwing NY), particularly if the Vermonter had been maintained through to Montreal all along (even as a day train).

In such a universe, who is to say that we might not be having a messy discussion on how far the ALB-BUF trains are going to be cut back (with occasional chatter on the corridor being dropped entirely and a lot of it focusing on the Maple Leaf being the sole survivor) and the Adirondack looks like it's toast while the PA GOP is grumbling, but propping up whatever services they have to there?

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

I guess the ideal network in Pennsylvania would be to keep the Pennsy and restore the BL, NL, and Pittsburgher. But f course now the chances are slim.

 

[afigg]

I would be interested to hear where you number comes from as the current FY2013 budget estimate is a shortfall of anywhere from $540 million to 1 Billion http://paindependent.com/2013/02/number-crunchers-offer-different-pa-deficit-estimates/I certainly like your number better than what I am finding - so please let us know.

That article also quotes projections of a surplus for 2012-2013. The wild card in projecting possible deficits is how much revenue comes in based on the overall economy and local specific economic sectors. The mid-year budget briefing viewgraphs linked to in that article shows a FY2013 budget of $27.66 billion. While it sounds big, a possible $1 billion deficit is only 3.6% of $27.66 billion. Does not take much of a revenue increase or trim in adjustable expenditures for a projected decifit to turn into a surplus. It is a gueessing game.
The serious crunch that PA is facing is transportation funding for roads, highway, deficient bridges, and transit. If Corbett's proposal goes through to lift the cap on wholesales tax on gas, the state will have more money available for road & bridge repair, transit, and passenger rail.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

I would be interested to hear where you number comes from as the current FY2013 budget estimate is a shortfall of anywhere from $540 million to 1 Billion http://paindependent.com/2013/02/number-crunchers-offer-different-pa-deficit-estimates/I certainly like your number better than what I am finding - so please let us know.

That article also quotes projections of a surplus for 2012-2013. The wild card in projecting possible deficits is how much revenue comes in based on the overall economy and local specific economic sectors. The mid-year budget briefing viewgraphs linked to in that article shows a FY2013 budget of $27.66 billion. While it sounds big, a possible $1 billion deficit is only 3.6% of $27.66 billion. Does not take much of a revenue increase or trim in adjustable expenditures for a projected decifit to turn into a surplus. It is a gueessing game.
The serious crunch that PA is facing is transportation funding for roads, highway, deficient bridges, and transit. If Corbett's proposal goes through to lift the cap on wholesales tax on gas, the state will have more money available for road & bridge repair, transit, and passenger rail.

Pennsylvania should make the gasoline taxes huge! That would reduce congestion, pollution, and fatalities from accidents!

 

[Nathanael]

Ironically, I think PA's problem on some level is that they weren't able to maintain more than one train per day through the state. Let's lay out an alternate way things might have played out: The Broadway survives while the LSL gets cut, and Amtrak opts to maintain the Pennsylvanian to Chicago as well while the upstate services get a trim. This could easily have been justified with marginally different numbers and political calculuses (such a setup would probably serve PA and OH better than the current situation while screwing NY), particularly if the Vermonter had been maintained through to Montreal all along (even as a day train).
In such a universe, who is to say that we might not be having a messy discussion on how far the ALB-BUF trains are going to be cut back (with occasional chatter on the corridor being dropped entirely and a lot of it focusing on the Maple Leaf being the sole survivor) and the Adirondack looks like it's toast while the PA GOP is grumbling, but propping up whatever services they have to there?

Well said!

I am the beneficiary of the survival of relatively good service on the Water Level Route -- all of which arguably survived due to the vagaries of chance in the past. We've actually gained a lot (LSL, Maple Leaf, Empire Service to Niagara Falls and Buffalo Exchange St., new Syracuse station, Schenectady) since 1971, and we've only lost the Niagara Rainbow. Perhaps the critical mass of three-a-day, which we never dropped below, was sufficient to build upon.

Meanwhile, Pittsbugh-Harrisburg service seems to have lost service more often than it gained service. It also started with three a day, but one died very quickly, and two were long distance -- of which one died pretty quickly. I don't want to see my Pennsylvania neighbors suffer due to a random historical chance which could have gone the other way.

(My Ontario neighbors are already suffering due to the random vagaries of politics going worse in Canada than the US, with the Maple Leaf now being the only train to Niagara Falls Ontario.)

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

Ironically, I think PA's problem on some level is that they weren't able to maintain more than one train per day through the state. Let's lay out an alternate way things might have played out: The Broadway survives while the LSL gets cut, and Amtrak opts to maintain the Pennsylvanian to Chicago as well while the upstate services get a trim. This could easily have been justified with marginally different numbers and political calculuses (such a setup would probably serve PA and OH better than the current situation while screwing NY), particularly if the Vermonter had been maintained through to Montreal all along (even as a day train).
In such a universe, who is to say that we might not be having a messy discussion on how far the ALB-BUF trains are going to be cut back (with occasional chatter on the corridor being dropped entirely and a lot of it focusing on the Maple Leaf being the sole survivor) and the Adirondack looks like it's toast while the PA GOP is grumbling, but propping up whatever services they have to there?

Well said!

I am the beneficiary of the survival of relatively good service on the Water Level Route -- all of which arguably survived due to the vagaries of chance in the past. We've actually gained a lot (LSL, Maple Leaf, Empire Service to Niagara Falls and Buffalo Exchange St., new Syracuse station, Schenectady) since 1971, and we've only lost the Niagara Rainbow. Perhaps the critical mass of three-a-day, which we never dropped below, was sufficient to build upon.

Meanwhile, Pittsbugh-Harrisburg service seems to have lost service more often than it gained service. It also started with three a day, but one died very quickly, and two were long distance -- of which one died pretty quickly. I don't want to see my Pennsylvania neighbors suffer due to a random historical chance which could have gone the other way.

(My Ontario neighbors are already suffering due to the random vagaries of politics going worse in Canada than the US, with the Maple Leaf now being the only train to Niagara Falls Ontario.)

Ontario could end up worse off than Pennsylvania even though they had more trains for many years.

 

[philabos]

I would be interested to hear where you number comes from as the current FY2013 budget estimate is a shortfall of anywhere from $540 million to 1 Billion http://paindependent.com/2013/02/number-crunchers-offer-different-pa-deficit-estimates/I certainly like your number better than what I am finding - so please let us know.

That article also quotes projections of a surplus for 2012-2013. The wild card in projecting possible deficits is how much revenue comes in based on the overall economy and local specific economic sectors. The mid-year budget briefing viewgraphs linked to in that article shows a FY2013 budget of $27.66 billion. While it sounds big, a possible $1 billion deficit is only 3.6% of $27.66 billion. Does not take much of a revenue increase or trim in adjustable expenditures for a projected decifit to turn into a surplus. It is a gueessing game.
The serious crunch that PA is facing is transportation funding for roads, highway, deficient bridges, and transit. If Corbett's proposal goes through to lift the cap on wholesales tax on gas, the state will have more money available for road & bridge repair, transit, and passenger rail.

You are right - it is a guessing game to some extent.

You cannot look at the Pennsylvanian's $5.6 million deficit in isolation when writing a statewide budget. While it may be important on this board, it has to compete with the much stronger advocacy groups which are furious over what they see as insufficient state spending on education, health care, welfare, the elderly - it goes on and on and is not unique here. That said, politics is a strange animal. Johnstown, after happily "investing" $200 million federal tax dollars in their airport may get to keep their train too. The airport handles less passengers than the train does at Johnstown station - never said it was fair.

 

[jis]

An airport that has exactly three flights on a 40 something seater SaaB 340 Prop plane to Washington Dulles! Amazing! One way fare appears to be $188. Total seats per day is around 120 or so. The fare from New York with one change at IAD works out to over $300. But as long as the Congressman can make it to his job in Washington, who the hell cares what happens to anyone else?

 

[Nathanael]

An airport that has exactly three flights on a 40 something seater SaaB 340 Prop plane to Washington Dulles! Amazing! One way fare appears to be $188. Total seats per day is around 120 or so. The fare from New York with one change at IAD works out to over $300.

Wow. What a point of comparison. That's a lot of money to spend on such an underused airport, when the Congressman could simply take the train to DC.

 

[Alexandria Nick]

Dulles *is* the closest international airport of any real use. When I lived in State College, we'd drive down to Dulles for international flights and DCA for national.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

I would be interested to hear where you number comes from as the current FY2013 budget estimate is a shortfall of anywhere from $540 million to 1 Billion http://paindependent.com/2013/02/number-crunchers-offer-different-pa-deficit-estimates/I certainly like your number better than what I am finding - so please let us know.

That article also quotes projections of a surplus for 2012-2013. The wild card in projecting possible deficits is how much revenue comes in based on the overall economy and local specific economic sectors. The mid-year budget briefing viewgraphs linked to in that article shows a FY2013 budget of $27.66 billion. While it sounds big, a possible $1 billion deficit is only 3.6% of $27.66 billion. Does not take much of a revenue increase or trim in adjustable expenditures for a projected decifit to turn into a surplus. It is a gueessing game.
The serious crunch that PA is facing is transportation funding for roads, highway, deficient bridges, and transit. If Corbett's proposal goes through to lift the cap on wholesales tax on gas, the state will have more money available for road & bridge repair, transit, and passenger rail.

You are right - it is a guessing game to some extent.

You cannot look at the Pennsylvanian's $5.6 million deficit in isolation when writing a statewide budget. While it may be important on this board, it has to compete with the much stronger advocacy groups which are furious over what they see as insufficient state spending on education, health care, welfare, the elderly - it goes on and on and is not unique here. That said, politics is a strange animal. Johnstown, after happily "investing" $200 million federal tax dollars in their airport may get to keep their train too. The airport handles less passengers than the train does at Johnstown station - never said it was fair.

Johntown was sure a fool! The airlines are cutting regional service and throwing the small planes to mainline routes, yet Johnstown still want more regionals!

An airport that has exactly three flights on a 40 something seater SaaB 340 Prop plane to Washington Dulles! Amazing! One way fare appears to be $188. Total seats per day is around 120 or so. The fare from New York with one change at IAD works out to over $300.

Wow. What a point of comparison. That's a lot of money to spend on such an underused airport, when the Congressman could simply take the train to DC.

Which airline flys those turboprops? Is it UA, considering it's going to IAD? Too bad there is not train PGH-HAR-WAS.

 

[PRR 60]

...

Which airline flys those turboprops? Is it UA, considering it's going to IAD? Too bad there is not train PGH-HAR-WAS.

JST to IAD is flown by Silver Airways (dba United Express).
EAS flights are intended to feed passengers to hub airports for seemless onward connections to domestic and international destinations. An eight hour train ride to Washington Union Station would not accomplish that goal.

 

[Anderson]

I'm actually surprised there's much funding going to smaller airports anymore, considering trends over the last decade or so of cuts to smaller airport service (either in frequency or in total).

 

[Ryan]

You cannot look at the Pennsylvanian's $5.6 million deficit in isolation when writing a statewide budget.

Of course you can, every line item has to be judged on its own merits. Regardless of if PA is swimming in cash or swimming in debt, PA needs to decide if paying $0.44/head for continued train service is a worthwhile expense.
If you decide that it's worth paying for, then you can account for the fiscal situation and figure out how to pay for it.

 

[afigg]

Dulles *is* the closest international airport of any real use. When I lived in State College, we'd drive down to Dulles for international flights and DCA for national.

Why not drive to the Philadelphia airport - or take the train from the nearest station to State College to Philly, Newark Airport, or even JFK? State College PA to Dulles Airport is not a short drive. Or were people at State College not that aware of the train to 30th St, then SEPTA to the Philly Airport option?

 

[afigg]

I'm actually surprised there's much funding going to smaller airports anymore, considering trends over the last decade or so of cuts to smaller airport service (either in frequency or in total).

The airport subsidies are often going to keeping alive a route that allows the Congressman, his/her staffers, other connected business/political types to fly between DC and his district on weekends. If/when oil prices go back up - and stay up - it will be more and more difficult to sustain those subsidized because even with a subsidy, the ticket prices will be so high, that not enough business and well off travelers will pay for them. The age of cheap oil is over. A lot of people have yet to accept that.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

Dulles *is* the closest international airport of any real use. When I lived in State College, we'd drive down to Dulles for international flights and DCA for national.

Why not drive to the Philadelphia airport - or take the train from the nearest station to State College to Philly, Newark Airport, or even JFK? State College PA to Dulles Airport is not a short drive. Or were people at State College not that aware of the train to 30th St, then SEPTA to the Philly Airport option?

State College dosen't have a train and PHL dosen't have that many international flights. It's easier to just hop on a UA airliner out of IAD.

...

Which airline flys those turboprops? Is it UA, considering it's going to IAD? Too bad there is not train PGH-HAR-WAS.

JST to IAD is flown by Silver Airways (dba United Express).
EAS flights are intended to feed passengers to hub airports for seemless onward connections to domestic and international destinations. An eight hour train ride to Washington Union Station would not accomplish that goal.

Then UA might as well cancel that flight, they are cutting regionals anyway. EAS is far less useful in the US than in Canada or Australia.

 

[Anderson]

Swadian: That may be coming. As it is, the EAS contracts are there to keep the flights coming...but if fuel prices were to hit an upward trajectory, it's quite possible that they might not find an airline willing to take up the contract at the price they can put out there.

 

[fairviewroad]

In such a universe, who is to say that we might not be having a messy discussion on how far the ALB-BUF trains are going to be cut back (with occasional chatter on the corridor being dropped entirely and a lot of it focusing on the Maple Leaf being the sole survivor) and the Adirondack looks like it's toast while the PA GOP is grumbling, but propping up whatever services they have to there?

The key difference being that Syracuse and Rochester are a heck of a lot bigger than Altoona and Johnstown. In fact, there are more students attending

Syracuse University than there are people in the entire city of Johnstown. So, it's not just a fluke than one state has multiple daily frequencies and the other

state is struggling to maintain one.

An airport that has exactly three flights on a 40 something seater SaaB 340 Prop plane to Washington Dulles! Amazing! One way fare appears to be $188. Total seats per day is around 120 or so. The fare from New York with one change at IAD works out to over $300.

Wow. What a point of comparison. That's a lot of money to spend on such an underused airport, when the Congressman could simply take the train to DC.

"Could simply take the train to DC."

If by simple you mean an eight hour train ride involving a connection in DC.

No, I think the simple alternative for the Congresscritter is to hop in his car and make the 3 hour drive. Even

with 10 frequencies a day on the Pennsylvanian route, the train still wouldn't be a sensible choice in going from

Johnstown to DC.

 

[Alexandria Nick]

Dulles *is* the closest international airport of any real use. When I lived in State College, we'd drive down to Dulles for international flights and DCA for national.

Why not drive to the Philadelphia airport - or take the train from the nearest station to State College to Philly, Newark Airport, or even JFK? State College PA to Dulles Airport is not a short drive. Or were people at State College not that aware of the train to 30th St, then SEPTA to the Philly Airport option?

It's only like 20 minutes longer driving time and doesn't involve toll roads. DC is much closer to State College than you'd think it would be. Plus picking the DC airports over Philly gave you way more options. Pittsburgh is close to an hour less of a drive than DC or Philly, but good luck flying anywhere out of there any more. And MDT (Harrisburg) is worthless in every way, so that's right out.

Just out of curiosity, I looked into your plan:

The drive from State College to the nearest useful train station (the drive actually passes a stop on the Pennsylvanian and State College is within 25 straightline miles of two others, but those are not useful) is 94 minutes to Harrisburg. Assume a few minutes to park and let's cut it close enough that would make me nervous but still get you on the train and get there 20 minutes before departure. After 120 minutes of travel, we get on our Keystone to 30th St. By the time we're pulling into 30th St, our competitor would be looking for a parking spot at Dulles. Or walking into the terminal at DCA or already looking at the departures board at BWI (BWI is 21 road-miles closer than PHL)

If there was Harrisburg-DC service that didn't have to take you to Philly, the game changes completely.

 

[fairviewroad]

And MDT (Harrisburg) is worthless in every way,

Sorry, but what a ridiculous thing to say. Yeah, it's not a major airline hub with comprehensive international service. No one pretends that

it is. But there are plenty of destinations you can get to with one-stop from MDT that would also require one-stop from IAD. And not everyone

wants to navigate their way through the mess that is DC traffic.

I've used MDT about a half-dozen times over the past 15 years and in not a single one of those cases would IAD have been a logical alternative.

 

[benjibear]

Most be I know usually fly in/out of Philadelphia or BWI. I hear it is cheaper, you can get direct flights, and Harrisburg isn't a nice airport. I can't say because I don't fly but I am not sure if it can really be much cheaper if you consider the driving and your time.

There has been talk to move the Middletown Amtrak closer to the airport.

 

[afigg]

It's only like 20 minutes longer driving time and doesn't involve toll roads. DC is much closer to State College than you'd think it would be. Plus picking the DC airports over Philly gave you way more options. Pittsburgh is close to an hour less of a drive than DC or Philly, but good luck flying anywhere out of there any more. And MDT (Harrisburg) is worthless in every way, so that's right out.
Just out of curiosity, I looked into your plan:

The drive from State College to the nearest useful train station (the drive actually passes a stop on the Pennsylvanian and State College is within 25 straightline miles of two others, but those are not useful) is 94 minutes to Harrisburg.

I live in the vicinity of Dulles Airport and have driven on the Bud Shuster highway (aka I-99) pass State College (albeit some years back), so I am familiar with the drive. Checking the maps, State College to Dulles Airport is around 3-1/2 hours and 210 miles by car, depending on the route. That is a long drive and not cheap, when the full cost of the drive is added up. Say, ~$100 each way, using a cost basis lower than the IRS per mile number. JFK Airport is not all that much further at ~260 miles and of course would likely offer even more international destinations that Dulles Airport. State College is rather isolated from the big cities, out there in central PA.

An option would be to drive or get a bus for the 32 miles to Lewistown, take the Pennsylvanian to NYP in a relaxing 5.5 hour trip, and then LIRR & Air Train to JFK. Or take a bus from State College to Harrisburg (I assume there are such buses) and a Keystone at roughly 3:15 trip time to NYP. Yes, taking Amtrak to BWI or WAS, then to Dulles is not convenient without the not likely to return soon Harrisburg to Baltimore connection, but it can be done. My reaction is mainly that State College to Dulles Airport is a really long way to drive just to get to the lovely Dulles Airport for international flights over the other travel options.

Someday, when or if a HSR line is built from Harrisburg to Pittsburgh, they can then follow that by building a spur line to State College along the Bud Shuster highway ROW to put the ROW to good use.

 

[jis]

They seem to be incapable of running a single train and of course they will build an HSR. Riiiiight!

They could also hop off at Newark and take a bus or an NJT train to EWR.