March 2016 Monthly Performance Report
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Ryan
Court Jester
That's a big if that we have no way of verifying. Even if it were true, there's no telling how the difference in inventory drove price changes and how that could have impacted ridership. Reduced inventory could have driven increased prices and lowered demand.
jis
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Must be the Diner or lack thereof. After all an unusually large number of Coach passengers on the Star were known to use the Diner 
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Just as a point of conversation, here are two charts for the Star and the Meteor that only look at Sleeper numbers. Since the removal of the diner, in my opinion, impacts sleeper ridership more directly that coach, looking at sleeper numbers might provide some indication of whether passenger moved from the Star to the Meteor to have full diner service, or from the Meteor to the Star to take advantage of lower fares.
The numbers for each month are for the 12 months ending that month. For example, the numbers for October 2015 are the sleeper ridership and revenue totals for November 1, 2014 through October 31, 2015. The numbers for November 2015 are for December 1, 2014 through November 30, 2015. Using the 12-month cumulative numbers tend to smooth out any short-term oddities due to disruptions, etc.
First, sleeper-only revenue - Star vs. Meteor:
Second, sleeper-only ridership Star vs. Meteor:
Not sure what this really proves except that, as far as sleeper is concerned, the Star has seen an increase in ridership, not a decrease.
The numbers for each month are for the 12 months ending that month. For example, the numbers for October 2015 are the sleeper ridership and revenue totals for November 1, 2014 through October 31, 2015. The numbers for November 2015 are for December 1, 2014 through November 30, 2015. Using the 12-month cumulative numbers tend to smooth out any short-term oddities due to disruptions, etc.
First, sleeper-only revenue - Star vs. Meteor:
Second, sleeper-only ridership Star vs. Meteor:
Not sure what this really proves except that, as far as sleeper is concerned, the Star has seen an increase in ridership, not a decrease.
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jis
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Oh yeah. I don't necessarily believe what I wrote and hence the smiley. But it seems there are at least some who have been diligently trying to make the case by repeated oblique insinuation, so I thought I'd throw it out there.While I think most of us would like to believe that's the cause, maybe there's a bit of post hoc, ergo propter hoc involved with that conclusion. Maybe. Maybe not.
As far as I can see, the bottom chart is simply a way to paint a rosy picture for what happened to the Star's ridership following the removal of the diner: eliminate sleeper ridership; blend (or adulterate) each month's data with the previous 11 months.
The fact remains that (based on Amtrak data) total ridership for the Star has decreased 7.2% while the Meteor has decreased only 0.2% since removal of the diner from the Star. No distortion (smoothing or adulteration) due to blending - each month stands alone until included in the totals for the 9 month period.
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trainviews
Service Attendant
It looks more like a case of coach and sleeper ridership moving in opposite directions on the dinerless Star.
After removing the diner, Amtrak lowered the sleeper prices on the Star and that seems to have attracted more riders who previously found the sleepers too expensive but are willing to pay a lower price for a sleeper without a diner. But as seen on the revenue chart the lower prices have more than offset the rising ridership and revenue is dwindling.
As for coach I don't think the prices were lowered after the diner was taken off. I suspect that especially on the northern end some riders were choosing the Star over the other alternative trains on that stretch because of the access to the diner. Now the only difference between the Star and one of the regionals/Palmetto/Carolinian is the lesser OTP of the Star, so the incentive is reversed.
And as there are far more coach passengers than sleeper passengers (although you wouldn't know from reading this board ) a decline in coach easily offsets a gain in sleepers in the overall ridership.
After removing the diner, Amtrak lowered the sleeper prices on the Star and that seems to have attracted more riders who previously found the sleepers too expensive but are willing to pay a lower price for a sleeper without a diner. But as seen on the revenue chart the lower prices have more than offset the rising ridership and revenue is dwindling.
As for coach I don't think the prices were lowered after the diner was taken off. I suspect that especially on the northern end some riders were choosing the Star over the other alternative trains on that stretch because of the access to the diner. Now the only difference between the Star and one of the regionals/Palmetto/Carolinian is the lesser OTP of the Star, so the incentive is reversed.
And as there are far more coach passengers than sleeper passengers (although you wouldn't know from reading this board
) a decline in coach easily offsets a gain in sleepers in the overall ridership.
Ryan
Court Jester
If that's what they're wanting to do, they're doing a poor job of it, since sleeper ridership increased. Removing your objection to blending monthly data, March 16 was 8.8% higher than March 15.
You're talking about total ridership, Bill is talking about sleeper ridership. You're comparing apples to oranges here.
Philly Amtrak Fan
Engineer
Passengers aren't allowed to ride the SS for intra-NEC traffic. So unless your definition of northern end is south of WAS the Star isn't an option. When looking at the schedule for the Carolinian the only "R" going south is Newark but every city WAS and north is a "D". So if this is true, you can go south from NYP to WAS on the Carolinian but you can't go north between the cities? I don't like that that they put the Carolinian, Palmetto, and the Silvers on one page. I can see the Florida trains on the same page but there's no reason to lump the Carolinian with them and make it so you can't have a single page Florida service schedule. The CZ and EB have close to if not more stops than the SS yet they fit on one page.It looks more like a case of coach and sleeper ridership moving in opposite directions on the dinerless Star.
After removing the diner, Amtrak lowered the sleeper prices on the Star and that seems to have attracted more riders who previously found the sleepers too expensive but are willing to pay a lower price for a sleeper without a diner. But as seen on the revenue chart the lower prices have more than offset the rising ridership and revenue is dwindling.
As for coach I don't think the prices were lowered after the diner was taken off. I suspect that especially on the northern end some riders were choosing the Star over the other alternative trains on that stretch because of the access to the diner. Now the only difference between the Star and one of the regionals/Palmetto/Carolinian is the lesser OTP of the Star, so the incentive is reversed.
And as there are far more coach passengers than sleeper passengers (although you wouldn't know from reading this board
Back to SS vs. SM, more sleeper passengers but less sleeper revenue (and obvious less revenue period). But I'm guessing they save money on the lack of diner so that the net gain on Congress's end is positive which is probably all they care about.
jis
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I believe it has generally been true that the Star has a larger proportion of short turn passenger than the Meteor, specially in Coach. That is a group that is likely to be more negatively impacted by lower gas prices than longer distance passengers. The ridership downturn appears to have a correlation with gas price downturn. Just throwing out other possibilities since I find it hard to believe that Coach passengers actually would be affected hugely by Diner.
Like anything else, there are lots of ways to look at this subject. After finding and breaking out the sleeper ridership data from the totals for each month we end up with these comparisons of the Star and Meteor since the 1 July 2015 diner elimination (July 2015 through March 2016) compared with the same previous period (July 2014 through March 2015):
Silver Star: • Total ridership down 7.2% Silver Meteor: • Total ridership down 0.2%
• Sleeper ridership up 14.3% • Sleeper ridership down 4.4%
• Coach ridership down 9.1% • Coach ridership up 0.4%
And when the month of March 2016 is compared to March 2015:
Silver Star: • Total ridership up 4.1% Silver Meteor: • Total ridership up 6.3%
• Sleeper ridership up 24.5% • Sleeper ridership down 1.6%
• Coach ridership down 2.3% • Coach ridership up 7.5%
Seems highly likely the 39% reduced cost of a mid-bucket Roomette on the Star when compared to the Meteor may be largely or totally responsible for the increase in the Star's sleeper ridership.
Silver Star: • Total ridership down 7.2% Silver Meteor: • Total ridership down 0.2%
• Sleeper ridership up 14.3% • Sleeper ridership down 4.4%
• Coach ridership down 9.1% • Coach ridership up 0.4%
And when the month of March 2016 is compared to March 2015:
Silver Star: • Total ridership up 4.1% Silver Meteor: • Total ridership up 6.3%
• Sleeper ridership up 24.5% • Sleeper ridership down 1.6%
• Coach ridership down 2.3% • Coach ridership up 7.5%
Seems highly likely the 39% reduced cost of a mid-bucket Roomette on the Star when compared to the Meteor may be largely or totally responsible for the increase in the Star's sleeper ridership.
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Thirdrail7
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Passengers aren't allowed to ride the SS for intra-NEC traffic. So unless your definition of northern end is south of WAS the Star isn't an option. When looking at the schedule for the Carolinian the only "R" going south is Newark but every city WAS and north is a "D". So if this is true, you can go south from NYP to WAS on the Carolinian but you can't go north between the cities? I don't like that that they put the Carolinian, Palmetto, and the Silvers on one page. I can see the Florida trains on the same page but there's no reason to lump the Carolinian with them and make it so you can't have a single page Florida service schedule. The CZ and EB have close to if not more stops than the SS yet they fit on one page.It looks more like a case of coach and sleeper ridership moving in opposite directions on the dinerless Star.
After removing the diner, Amtrak lowered the sleeper prices on the Star and that seems to have attracted more riders who previously found the sleepers too expensive but are willing to pay a lower price for a sleeper without a diner. But as seen on the revenue chart the lower prices have more than offset the rising ridership and revenue is dwindling.
As for coach I don't think the prices were lowered after the diner was taken off. I suspect that especially on the northern end some riders were choosing the Star over the other alternative trains on that stretch because of the access to the diner. Now the only difference between the Star and one of the regionals/Palmetto/Carolinian is the lesser OTP of the Star, so the incentive is reversed.
And as there are far more coach passengers than sleeper passengers (although you wouldn't know from reading this board
Back to SS vs. SM, more sleeper passengers but less sleeper revenue (and obvious less revenue period). But I'm guessing they save money on the lack of diner so that the net gain on Congress's end is positive which is probably all they care about.
If you look at the top of the respective schedule pages, it lumps in the major points along the service route (Atlantic Coast Service). Therefore, it is legitimate addition to the schedule page.
That being said, 79 is used to provide local service on the NEC. 80 no longer provides local service over the NEC.
Philly Amtrak Fan
Engineer
Why not put both in? There is a separate standalone Carolinian/Piedmont schedule in the National Timetable (but ironically not the link to the separate Carolinian/Piedmont schedule) so why not a standalone NYP-Florida single page schedule? Between the SS and SM there must be tons of passengers from the NEC to Florida. Is fitting NYP/PHL/WAS-MIA on a single page/computer screen without having to turn the page or scroll down too much to ask for?
Is it really that hard for you to turn a page or scroll down?
Philly Amtrak Fan
Engineer
Name another LD route that doesn't have a one page schedule. Why should the Star and Meteor be any different?
Huh, because they share many of the same stations as the Carolinian/Palmetto/Piedmont? Why should Amtrak waste money printing a separate timetable?
How many other LD trains share MANY of the same stations?
Philly Amtrak Fan
Engineer
Well since Amtrak soon won't be printing anything, it's just computer memory now so there should be no excuse.
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They're still printing the individual timetables, and I doubt they'll stop printing those.
jis
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And where did you get that idea from? They have said that they will continue to print the individual route timetables. It is only the National Timetable that won;t be printed any more.
trainviews
Service Attendant
Well obviously I'm talking about passengers that are actually allowed on the train. VA and NC passengers going north.Passengers aren't allowed to ride the SS for intra-NEC traffic. So unless your definition of northern end is south of WAS the Star isn't an option. When looking at the schedule for the Carolinian the only "R" going south is Newark but every city WAS and north is a "D". So if this is true, you can go south from NYP to WAS on the Carolinian but you can't go north between the cities? I don't like that that they put the Carolinian, Palmetto, and the Silvers on one page. I can see the Florida trains on the same page but there's no reason to lump the Carolinian with them and make it so you can't have a single page Florida service schedule. The CZ and EB have close to if not more stops than the SS yet they fit on one page.It looks more like a case of coach and sleeper ridership moving in opposite directions on the dinerless Star.
After removing the diner, Amtrak lowered the sleeper prices on the Star and that seems to have attracted more riders who previously found the sleepers too expensive but are willing to pay a lower price for a sleeper without a diner. But as seen on the revenue chart the lower prices have more than offset the rising ridership and revenue is dwindling.
As for coach I don't think the prices were lowered after the diner was taken off. I suspect that especially on the northern end some riders were choosing the Star over the other alternative trains on that stretch because of the access to the diner. Now the only difference between the Star and one of the regionals/Palmetto/Carolinian is the lesser OTP of the Star, so the incentive is reversed.
And as there are far more coach passengers than sleeper passengers (although you wouldn't know from reading this board
Back to SS vs. SM, more sleeper passengers but less sleeper revenue (and obvious less revenue period). But I'm guessing they save money on the lack of diner so that the net gain on Congress's end is positive which is probably all they care about.
Even if the Carolinian and Piedmont trains were removed from the Atlantic Coast Service schedule timetable handout, the schedule for the Star, Meteor, and Palmetto would still span 2 pages because of the number of stops for the Silver trains. The Piedmont trains will likely be removed from the combined Atlantic Coast Service schedule anyway when the 3rd Piedmont frequency is added (late 2017??) or, if not then, when the 4th daily Piedmont is added. Won't be enough room horizontally for 4 daily Piedmonts unless a wider timetable page is used. I expect the combined ACS schedule will be reduced to the Silvers, Palmetto, and Carolinian with the Piedmonts split off into a separate table.
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When analyzing the Star sleeper ridership numbers, have to look at them in context of the additional roomettes that were made available for revenue sale by the reduction in the OBS. The Star only has 2 sleeper cars with a total of 24 roomettes and 6 bedrooms. I don't recall seeing the exact number freed up by the removal of the diner car crew, but it was likely 4 or 5 roomettes. Since, what, 3? of the roomettes are still used by remaining OBS, the percentage increase in fairly large in terms of the roomettes. if the number was 5 roomettes freed up out of 8 used, works out for just the roomettes to 16 available before to 21 available now or 21 / 16 for a 31% increase. Over all rooms including the bedrooms, again guessing that 5 roomettes were freed up, that would work to 27 available now / 22 available with diner for a 22% increase.
So with the additional capacity, if the demand level is roughly the same, the Star should be seeing a 20% plus increase in sleeper ridership. Of course, this points out how much was loss with the reduction in the bag-dorm order in net capacity, but the Star and Meteor will see a boost in sleeper revenue when the new Viewliner sleepers are added - someday.
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