Brightline Trains Florida discussion 2023 Q4

[railiner]

I suppose you could compare Brightline and Tri Rail to Amtrak and either MN or NJT or other regional RR's that parallel Amtrak service around the country...some traveler's are not at all price sensitive, be it they are wealthy or traveling on expense account. Some of them would, if allowed, even go Acela First Class just from New York to Newark.

It should be interesting if Tri Rail will impact Brightline when they do go to downtown. Maybe Tri Rail should put on at least one peak hour 'express' with limited stops?

 

[bonzoesc]

, I am somewhat surprised people will pay premium Brightline fares for such short trips, especially when there is a much cheaper alternate choice available via Tri Rail....

I’m walking distance to the Coconut Grove Metrorail station (south end of the attached map, fuchsia marking) and all my Brightline trips have been to walking distance from the Ft. Lauderdale station (north end of the attached map, fuchsia marking). The extra time on the metro to get to the Tri-Rail station (which is also where Amtrak is) or the airport (which is sometimes on a much less convenient metro service) isn’t too bad, but having to find or book another vehicle once I get up north would put the trip into the “could’ve just driven” bucket.

 

[Anderson]

2021    November     61,045     0.6         $  582,979    $ 9.83    $ 9.55    0.8     $13.11
2021    December     95,348     1.3         $1,259,547    $13.63    $13.21    1.6     $13.63

2021                156,393     1.8         $1,842,309    $11.51    $11.78    2.4*    $15.34

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2022    January      64,243     1.3         $1,254,666    $20.24    $19.53    1.5     $23.35
2022    February     77,806     1.6         $1,624,589    $20.56    $20.88    1.9     $24.42
2022    March       107,069     2.3         $2,289,135    $21.48    $21.38    2.7     $25.22
2022    April        93,922     1.9         $1,926,340    $20.23    $20.51    2.3     $24.49
2022    May         102,796     2.2         $2,178,247    $21.40    $21.19    2.6     $25.29
2022    June         92,304     1.7         $1,713,162    $18.42    $18.56    2.1     $22.75
2022    July        111,582     1.9         $1,896,894    $17.03    $17.00    2.3     $20.61
2022    August      100,116     1.9         $1,917,221    $18.98    $19.15    2.4     $23.97
2022    September    91,577     1.8         $1,769,268    $19.66    $19.32    2.5     $27.30
2022    October     102,615     2.1         $2,126,183    $20.46    $20.72    3.0     $29.24
2022    November    102,544     2.2         $2,213,925    $21.45    $21.59    3.4     $33.16
2022    December    183,920     3.7         $3,733,576    $20.12    $20.30    5.1     $27.73
                    
2022                1,230,494  24.6        $24,643,207    $19.99             31.8     $25.84

2023    January     156,137     3.5         $3,538,064    $22.41    $22.66    4.7     $30.10
2023    February    151,654     3.7         $3,654,861    $24.39    $24.10    4.7     $30.99
2023    March       179,576     4.7         $4,710,278    $26.17    $26.23    6.5     $36.20
2023    April       151,080     3.4         $3,446,135    $22.50    $22.81    4.9     $32.43
2023    May         168,137     3.5         $3,468,666    $20.82    $20.63    5.2     $30.93
2023    June        149,536     2.7         $2,706,602    $18.06    $18.10    4.2     $28.09
2023    July        156,478     2.8         $2,818,169    $17.89    $18.01    4.3     $27.50
2023    August      149,821     2.6         $2,581,416    $17.35    $17.23    4.0     $26.70
2023    September   143,053     4.1         $4,068,427    $28.66    $28.44    5.8     $40.54

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

2021    November     61,045     0.6         $  582,979    $ 9.83    $ 9.55    0.8     $13.11
2021    December     95,348     1.3         $1,259,547    $13.63    $13.21    1.6     $13.63

2021                156,393     1.8         $1,842,309    $11.51    $11.78    2.4*    $15.34

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2022    January      64,243     1.3         $1,254,666    $20.24    $19.53    1.5     $23.35
2022    February     77,806     1.6         $1,624,589    $20.56    $20.88    1.9     $24.42
2022    March       107,069     2.3         $2,289,135    $21.48    $21.38    2.7     $25.22
2022    April        93,922     1.9         $1,926,340    $20.23    $20.51    2.3     $24.49
2022    May         102,796     2.2         $2,178,247    $21.40    $21.19    2.6     $25.29
2022    June         92,304     1.7         $1,713,162    $18.42    $18.56    2.1     $22.75
2022    July        111,582     1.9         $1,896,894    $17.03    $17.00    2.3     $20.61
2022    August      100,116     1.9         $1,917,221    $18.98    $19.15    2.4     $23.97
2022    September    91,577     1.8         $1,769,268    $19.66    $19.32    2.5     $27.30
2022    October     102,615     2.1         $2,126,183    $20.46    $20.72    3.0     $29.24
2022    November    102,544     2.2         $2,213,925    $21.45    $21.59    3.4     $33.16
2022    December    183,920     3.7         $3,733,576    $20.12    $20.30    5.1     $27.73
                    
2022                1,230,494  24.6        $24,643,207    $19.99             31.8     $25.84

2023    January     156,137     3.5         $3,538,064    $22.41    $22.66    4.7     $30.10
2023    February    151,654     3.7         $3,654,861    $24.39    $24.10    4.7     $30.99
2023    March       179,576     4.7         $4,710,278    $26.17    $26.23    6.5     $36.20
2023    April       151,080     3.4         $3,446,135    $22.50    $22.81    4.9     $32.43
2023    May         168,137     3.5         $3,468,666    $20.82    $20.63    5.2     $30.93
2023    June        149,536     2.7         $2,706,602    $18.06    $18.10    4.2     $28.09
2023    July        156,478     2.8         $2,818,169    $17.89    $18.01    4.3     $27.50
2023    August      149,821     2.6         $2,581,416    $17.35    $17.23    4.0     $26.70
2023    September   125,475     2.6         $2,588,549    $20.72    $20.63

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

Year    Month       Ridership   Tix Rev-A    Tix Rev-B     PPR-A     PPR-B    Tot Rev  Total PPR
2023    September    17,578     1.5          $1,479,364    $85.33    $84.16   

                                Filing      Derived       Derived   Filing    Filing  Derived

This is split in two posts because I hit the character limit (again).

 

[Anderson]

So, there are three data boxes this month, and I intend to do this going forward. Box one is the combined data, box two is South Florida-only, and box three is Orlando. And then one is combined. I'm not going to try to allocate ancillary expenses between them in the charts, because I don't believe that I (or even, really, Brightline) could do so in a way that was definitive. My instinct would be to split them on the basis of passenger count, but count each "Long Distance" passenger as two passengers.

I should also note, as an opening bit, that in their filing this month Brightline indicates that ridership to/from Orlando is holding at around 2,500/day and total ridership is holding at around 6,500/day (leaving about 4,000/day in South Florida). Noting that Brightline was still moving to full service at the time (I forget when they actually shifted, since initially the target for that was late October...I think the 9th/10th is when they actually got there), so I would not be surprised to see October's Orlando numbers land a bit higher (say, 3,000/day).

Ridership from August to September was pretty close to flat, which is not great, but last September showed a similar dip. This was sort-of patched over by the ridership to/from Orlando, and I /believe/ that Brightline had to effectively cut a peak-hour train in South Florida in order to make Orlando operations work. There was probably also some crowding out once MCO service began.

The included week-and-a-bit of Orlando traffic is quite strong, and it is stronger when one realizes that they did this with 6-8 undersized daily trains. Considering that the first day was even more constrained (IIRC it was about 4-5 trains because of the ceremonial train [which I presume isn't counted] and there was one other frequency that got messed with in one direction), 2k/day in this context is quite impressive. As noted above, this has picked up to 2.5k/day in early October, and the increase in frequency later in October might push this higher still.

I think the big story that Brightline is (understandably) not talking about is this: Per their numbers, they were running at 150,000-170,000/month in South Florida for most of 2023 (and had effectively edged into operational profitability on the basis of South Florida in March). The above puts ridership in South Florida at about 120,000/month (while overall ridership in October is tracking towards 200,000/month). Brightline has a serious capacity problem, and I think it is risking trashing their commuter business. I would not be shocked to find that some passholders randomly found their preferred train sold out at the end of last month, and "pricing problems" in South Florida seem to be lurking there as well.

"Seat inefficiencies" (where there is net capacity available between two destinations, but no individual seats are) are not likely to help; Brightline might want too consider a minimally discounted "no seat reservation" option for intra-South Florida reservations (not unlike Basic Economy on airlines), with the computer assigning seats close to departure time (e.g. dropping someone booking WPB-MIA into a seat that's taken by an MCO-WPB passenger once the train leaves MCO) - this issue is only going to get worse as more stops are added, and being able to slot folks in who don't really care where they sit would be useful in limiting this trouble (while also reducing e.g. the number of folks unable to find seats together).

By the way, vs their official ridership projections from August 2022, I was expecting the ridership bottleneck to be in the Boca/Fort Lauderdale segment (the projected load factors were about 163% of available seats on that segment vs 106% heading into Miami), but I suspect this might have as much to do with a seat turnover issue as it does raw demand.

Alongside this, Brightline doesn't have any new equipment coming until sometime next year. The result is likely to be a very "tight" time for them, capacity-wise, for the next year or two - they have ten coaches coming sometime in 2024, and another 20 coming in 2025. They speak of demand still accelerating - I tend to believe them, but they simply do not have the supply. Then again, I've been banging on this pot on here for a long, long time, haven't I? Their equipment orders have not really aligned with their official projections. Do note that with chatter about sold-out trains and so on, we are notionally only at something like one quarter of the officially projected Orlando traffic. Their ridership projections are currently physically impossible; once they get the three extra coaches, I think something closer to them becomes plausible-but-infeasible, so we'll see what develops.

Do note that I worked out some revised ridership projections back in February. I will make one revision (reducing Boca ridership a bit since a lot of trains seem to be skipping Boca for the foreseeable future), but my projected breakdown was:
-3.10m riders in South Florida at $25/rider
--1.25m riders MIA/FLL/WPB (exclusive)
--1.85m riders to/from AVE/BOC (incl. to/from the other stations)
-2.57m riders to/from Orlando at $100/rider

I'd knock the BOC numbers by 300k right now (presuming that BOC doesn't get most/all trains sooner rather than later - currently they're around half of daily trains), but not change anything else, giving:
-2.80m riders in South Florida at $25/rider
-2.57m riders to/from Orlando at $100/rider

This is still going to require some additional capacity, but this aligns with where ridership patterns seem to be going.

 

[NES28]

Very interesting analysis. Would having a South Florida commuter operator handling most of that traffic resolve most of the problem? Was this their original assumption?

 

[Anderson]

Very interesting analysis. Would having a South Florida commuter operator handling most of that traffic resolve most of the problem? Was this their original assumption?

Partly. I think they expected that it would bleed off e.g. FLL-MIA traffic, but the longer markets (WPB-MIA, WPB-AVE, and BOC-MIA) have a non-trivial probable time advantage for the express-ish trains (the end-to-end runtime on Tri-Rail is 1:55 vs 1:15-1:20 on Brightline), and some folks will pay for the comfort. So, commuter service would move some of that "bulge" north but wouldn't get rid of all of the demand.

[It would probably make a certain amount sense for Brightline to just build the commuter service themselves as a real estate focused project, so as to maintain better control of pricing and so on...but getting federal funding for it is probably too attractive.]

Edit:
So, to revise and extend the above...
There are a few uncertain points in the mix here. One is that Tri-Rail is supposed to get extended into MiamiCentral at some point in the near future. To the extent that Brightline traffic is being driven by Brightline being "the only game in town" for getting to downtown Miami smoothly, this might cause a hit to ridership. The counter to this is that it's about another 5-7 rail miles from the Tri-Rail/Metro transfer station to MiamiCentral than it is to the airport (about 4.5 miles east-west plus another 1.6 miles or so since MiamiCentral is further south than the airport station), so it'd probably take somewhere around another 8-10 minutes to get there (presuming no intermediate stops - the proposed service along the FEC routing has three stops between MiamiCentral and the connecting track, and I wouldn't be utterly shocked to ultimately see one stop get added somewhere along the way, either; with the added stops, something like 15 minutes of additional runtime would make sense).

I would note that Brightline, in their filings, have indicated that they expect commuter service to be additive to ridership. I think the net impact on the long-haul side of things will be additive, but within South Florida the story will probably be more complex (and probably net negative - the shorter markets, to the extent they exist, are likely to get hammered).

However, the bigger issue is simply one of supply. Going back to my analysis from February, there's simply a shortage of seats at issue. At the time I ballparked the seat count at 3,528,720 (based on 18 round-trips per day with the current equipment). So right now, even with every seat occupied, Brightline can't fit their projected ridership on their trains. They have another three cars on order; for the sake of discussion let's say that each car fits 64 passengers. But let's also drop back to 16 trains per day, roughly in line with the present timetable (currently it's 15 or so per day MIA-MCO, but 16-17/day MIA-WPB). That gets you to 440 pax/train, which on 16 round-trips gets you 14,080 seats/day. Multiply that by 365, and you get 5,139,200/yr.

Here's the rub: Brightline's own predictions from last year indicate 5,309,183 riders/yr on the Boca-Fort Lauderdale segment (a 103.3% load factor). We can argue about where load factors are likely to cap out, but it will be (rather by definition) under 100%. So either the cap-out has to be lower or Brightline is going to need more equipment. If you argue that a load factor on that segment of 80% could be made to work, then adding two more cars (568 seats/train) would just about get you there - that gets you 6,634,240 seats/yr, and an 80% load factor on the Boca-Fort Lauderdale segment would need 6,636,479 seats/yr.

The impact of probable stations further north (Cocoa/Treasure Coast) is also hard to peg. Brightline hasn't given particularly useful numbers on this front, but I'd guess that if served at no less than every-other-hour frequencies they'd probably add about half a million riders per year (give or take) each. This isn't worked out with any formulas, etc., but I'd note that the three Treasure Coast counties have about 640k people between them, and Brevard's about the same. The catchment areas will be non-trivial, and both have room to send traffic in both directions - I suspect that a lot of folks might opt to take the train to/from MCO rather than driving/parking there.

 

[NES28]

Apparently, the bottom line is that the vision that Brightine's investors had was very sound and they will do very well. This should send a a very positive message to promoters of HSR around the U.S. Once the ability of HSR to operate without subsidy, rather than the major operating subsidy required for conventional service, becomes clear there will, hopefully, be a flurry of HSR projects around the country.

 

[Anderson]

Apparently, the bottom line is that the vision that Brightine's investors had was very sound and they will do very well. This should send a a very positive message to promoters of HSR around the U.S. Once the ability of HSR to operate without subsidy, rather than the major operating subsidy required for conventional service, becomes clear there will, hopefully, be a flurry of HSR projects around the country.

Ironically, Brightline [FL] makes a strong case /against/ HSR and in favor of fast, high frequency conventional service. The sheer capex invariably needed for large-scale 180MPH+ services drowns out the question of self-sufficient operations. Put another way, for the cost of CAHSR you could probably, with the interest alone, run Antrak for decades...or you could build a large number of 90-125 services. Admittedly CAHSR is exceedingly expensive partly due to specific local conditions, but I'm hard-pressed to think of a major HSR project that hasn't staggered under the effects of its capex.

 

[NES28]

Responding to Anderson, I agree that frequency is essential if passenger rail is to have an impact. Unfortunately, it is virtually impossible to achieve on shared track owned by a Class 1 freight railroad. The only example is Sacramento-Oakland-Oakland on UP. However, it is my understanding that the corridor is maxed out; UP will not permit any further increase in speed or frequency. Virginia has purchased ROW and track between DC and Petersburg, VA from CSX but is restricted from implementing speed higher than 90 mph or adding electrification. Brightline is clearly an outlier resulting from the fact that its promoters owned FEC at that point in history. Thus, it is apparent to me that high frequency, with the potential to to transition to HSR over time can only be implemented in the U.S. in the same way as in the rest of the world; the corridor must be in full public ownership. Once the ROW is publicly-owned, and environmental analysis is complete, the actual construction cost is not out of reach. If upgrading an existing line (i.e. Dearborn MI to Porter IN) the process can be be done incrementally as ridership justifies; 1) raise speed to 110 mph, 2) add second main track, 3) add electrification, and 4) add grade separations permitting 220 mph (where curvature allows).

 

[Anderson]

Responding to Anderson, I agree that frequency is essential if passenger rail is to have an impact. Unfortunately, it is virtually impossible to achieve on shared track owned by a Class 1 freight railroad. The only example is Sacramento-Oakland-Oakland on UP. However, it is my understanding that the corridor is maxed out; UP will not permit any further increase in speed or frequency. Virginia has purchased ROW and track between DC and Petersburg, VA from CSX but is restricted from implementing speed higher than 90 mph or adding electrification. Brightline is clearly an outlier resulting from the fact that its promoters owned FEC at that point in history. Thus, it is apparent to me that high frequency, with the potential to to transition to HSR over time can only be implemented in the U.S. in the same way as in the rest of the world; the corridor must be in full public ownership. Once the ROW is publicly-owned, and environmental analysis is complete, the actual construction cost is not out of reach. If upgrading an existing line (i.e. Dearborn MI to Porter IN) the process can be be done incrementally as ridership justifies; 1) raise speed to 110 mph, 2) add second main track, 3) add electrification, and 4) add grade separations permitting 220 mph (where curvature allows).

I don't think our disagreement is *that* great. Brightline and Virginia both provide models for shared ownership models. One reason VA agreed to the 90 MPH restriction (vs pushing for 110/125) is that the line just doesn't have much space to go faster because of the curves (Richmond-Fredericksburg is an 1840s alignment, and Fredericksburg-DC can't be moved without extreme expense bulldozing houses).

Even with a greenfield alignment, you're probably stuck sharing tracks on approach to cities (which can be a good chunk of a route)...

...and this is before equipment costs and so on come into play.

 

[VentureForth]

Looking at simply ORL - WPB over the next week or so, I find some interesting trends. First, the lowest bucket fares are predominant. There are some higher fares, but not very many. It appears the highest demand is on Sunday. Also, Premium Fares seem to be climbing up the fare bucket faster than Smart. $309 for Premium from Orlando to Miami on 11/5 on the 11:54 AM departure.

Interesting that Brightline doesn't identify their trains by "train number". This seems to be unique. I'm sure they have train numbers that are used internally. That begs another question - do they utilize an onboard conductor like Amtrak and most commuter rail services calling out signals? Or are they a single person operation?

On another note - signaling on the Brightline route is unique to me. IDK if this is how FEC has done it all along, but it seems like the signal lights (not all the time) stay off until a couple minutes before a block is about to be occupied, then shows red or green depending on direction of travel. Then, a few minutes after the train passes, it turns off. Makes sense to save power (especially where they are relying on solar/battery along the 528). Is this common for Class I freights around the country or along the NEC? Maybe it's been that way all along and I just noticed...

 

[AmtrakMaineiac]

That begs another question - do they utilize an onboard conductor like Amtrak and most commuter rail services calling out signals? Or are they a single person operation?

I doubt passenger conductors spend much time up front calling signals since they have much to do back in the coaches. Freight conductors a different matter.

On another note - signaling on the Brightline route is unique to me. IDK if this is how FEC has done it all along, but it seems like the signal lights (not all the time) stay off until a couple minutes before a block is about to be occupied, then shows red or green depending on direction of travel. Then, a few minutes after the train passes, it turns off. Makes sense to save power (especially where they are relying on solar/battery along the 528). Is this common for Class I freights around the country or along the NEC? Maybe it's been that way all along and I just noticed..

This I believe is almost universal among railroads that still use wayside color light signals. Referred to as approach lighting. As a railfan/train chaser it is a useful way of telling when a train is coming

 

[bonzoesc]

Looking at simply ORL - WPB over the next week or so, I find some interesting trends. First, the lowest bucket fares are predominant. There are some higher fares, but not very many. It appears the highest demand is on Sunday. Also, Premium Fares seem to be climbing up the fare bucket faster than Smart. $309 for Premium from Orlando to Miami on 11/5 on the 11:54 AM departure.

Interesting that Brightline doesn't identify their trains by "train number". This seems to be unique. I'm sure they have train numbers that are used internally. That begs another question - do they utilize an onboard conductor like Amtrak and most commuter rail services calling out signals? Or are they a single person operation?

The premium fare bucket filling up is my fault, I decided to try it for a short trip to Melbourne this week and figured I’d get more work done along the way if I was comfy.

I do know there are multiple attendants on the train, one might be the conductor for legal purposes (similar to how the purser is often the first class FA on transcontinental flights).

 

[VentureForth]

I doubt passenger conductors spend much time up front calling signals since they have much to do back in the coaches. Freight conductors a different matter.

I have heard Amtrak conductors and Metrolink conductors call signals from inside the coach over the radio (which I find impossible, but whatever). I know the freights have been petitioning to eliminate the conductor position in favor of a one-man operation. I can't figure out how that could be OK.

 

[jis]

I have heard Amtrak conductors and Metrolink conductors call signals from inside the coach (which I find impossible, but whatever). I know the freights have been petitioning to eliminate the conductor position in favor of a one-man operation. I can't figure out how that could be OK.

They acknowledge the Engineers call. They cannot possibly make the original call since they cannot see any signals. This is also on only certain railroads that require signal calling. Not all do. I don't think FEC requires signal calling since it is a bit redundant in the presence of eATC and I-ETMS PTC. Similarly, no signal calling on Amtrak's NEC. Specially in the presence of PTC, signal calling is just an anachronism, since it will be enforced even if the Engineer forgets to act on it.

BTW signal lamps turning on only when a train is in the vicinity exists at many places and have done so for at least 50 years.

 

[lordsigma]

CSX and NS are the two that I know require calling everything - they’ll also call cab signal downgrades on territories that have them. On my trip out west during my time on BNSF and UP rails I noted they called signal aspects other than clear (but not clear signals - except when an already called less favorable signal upgrades to clear.) unsure what’s done on CN and CP. for an observer on board that listens with a scanner I kind of like the calling as it gives you a bit of a view of what’s going on ahead. But I’m sure it’s redundant and tedious for the crew and I’d agree operationally it doesn’t seem to serve much purpose.

 

[chrsjrcj]

I was under the impression that Brightline conductors ride upfront with the engineer, similar to Via.

Also, I don’t believe the FEC calls out signals (although there was a brief stint not too long ago where they did). I remember when Brightline first started testing they would call out “hot rail” over the radio when passing another train. Not sure if that is still practice.

 

[chrsjrcj]

Received a targeted ad on Facebook that fares between WPB and Orlando are up to 50% off through 11/16. Looks like you can take advantage by directly going to Brightline’s website without a link or promo code.

 

[joelkfla]

Received a targeted ad on Facebook that fares between WPB and Orlando are up to 50% off through 11/16. Looks like you can take advantage by directly going to Brightline’s website without a link or promo code.

Yes, Smart fares to/from WPB are coming up half what they are to other SoFL stations.

There seem to be a lot more trains with $99 fares to MIA. On many days, $99 is the lowest fare available.

 

[VentureForth]

Yes, Smart fares to/from WPB are coming up half what they are to other SoFL stations.

There seem to be a lot more trains with $99 fares to MIA. On many days, $99 is the lowest fare available.

It still looks like that's to accommodate WPB - MIA. Last few trains I've seen pass by along 528 have seemed practically empty.

Here's a two-edged sword. Maybe turn 1/2 the trains back to MIA at WPB and only run to MCO every other hour? Maybe that won't work - waiting two hours for a train would be a step in the wrong customer service direction, but it would reduce waste. Of course, I am hoping more for the "If you build it, they will come" mindset.

 

[jis]

It still looks like that's to accommodate WPB - MIA. Last few trains I've seen pass by along 528 have seemed practically empty.

Here's a two-edged sword. Maybe turn 1/2 the trains back to MIA at WPB and only run to MCO every other hour? Maybe that won't work - waiting two hours for a train would be a step in the wrong customer service direction, but it would reduce waste. Of course, I am hoping more for the "If you build it, they will come" mindset.

Brightline will soon learn the virtues of having more infill stations. Amtrak has struggled with similar issues on the NEC whenever they bravely tried to run one stop or non stop service between New York and Washington DC.

 

[cirdan]

Here's a two-edged sword. Maybe turn 1/2 the trains back to MIA at WPB and only run to MCO every other hour? Maybe that won't work - waiting two hours for a train would be a step in the wrong customer service direction, but it would reduce waste. Of course, I am hoping more for the "If you build it, they will come" mindset.

If they can't build up ridership north of WPB, this bodes badly for the Tampa extension.

 

[jis]

If they can't build up ridership north of WPB, this bodes badly for the Tampa extension.

I would submit that it has nothing to do with the Tampa extension. It is a different market with its own dynamics and it could be quite successful as a non stop service irrespective of what happens between WPB and Orlando.

I would also caution that ridership just two months into new service introduction is too early to base any decisions on. It took quite a while to build up ridership between Miami and WPB too.

 

[bonzoesc]

It still looks like that's to accommodate WPB - MIA. Last few trains I've seen pass by along 528 have seemed practically empty.

That matches my experience from last week, the WPB-MCO stretch both directions had maybe a dozen people in the first class car, while puling in to MIA on a Friday night had every seat full.

 

[Anderson]

That matches my experience from last week, the WPB-MCO stretch both directions had maybe a dozen people in the first class car, while puling in to MIA on a Friday night had every seat full.

This may (partly) be short-haul traffic blocking MCO-MIA folks. Having said that, 2500 pax/day would kick out less than 100/train (or a 35-40% load factor). That's not /too/ far off of 12/42.