What it says on the tin...does anybody know where any actual studies/estimates-with-details (i.e. more than just an "X riders per day" ballpark)? I'm particularly wondering because I know there's going to be some ridership diversion, etc...but I also just don't have any feel for what's expected here.
Amtrak Norfolk Ridership Projections?
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Well, there is a ridership projection report from 2002 on the VDRPT website for trips to Norfolk and Newport News. But that report looks to be based on service to Main Street Station with different possible track speeds and daily frequencies. But I don't think a 10 year old projection has much relevance. To find the documents, scroll down the VDRPT Rail Reference Material page for the Richmond to South Hampton Roads High-Speed Rail Feasibility Study - 2002.
There are likely more recent internal ridership projections, but I don't recall seeing any numbers in newspaper articles or press releases from VDRPT. With one train a day initially with an early AM departure from Norfolk, they may not want to publicly overshoot on the early ridership numbers. If service starts in mid-December, that means the first 2 full months will be during January and February, the lowest months of the year for Amtrak passenger traffic.
Yeah, I've seen that report a few times...but like you said, they seem to envision more trains and a longer timeframe. However, we do have a ballpark number in options 1 and 2 (all options assume present VA Peninsula services):
2025 Projections:
Option 1: NFK-79 MPH, 1/day
NPN Riders: 211,800
NPN Revenue: $12.460m
NFK Riders: 28,800
NFK Revenue: $1.020m
Total Riders: 240,600
Total Revenue: $13.480m
Option 2: NFK-90 MPH, 1/day
NPN Riders: 199,500
NPN Revenue: $11.970m
NFK Riders: 41,500
NFK Revenue: $1.510m
Total Riders: 241,000
Total Revenue: $13.480m
Versus Baseline:
NPN Riders: 240,200
NPN Revenue: $13.460m
If these numbers pan out, I think the technical term for the project would be "a bust". However, the projections for the same baseline service were 245,500-262,300 in the 2008 report (and 425,700-464,800 for simply adding a third NPN train).
Also, on page 16 of this report:
http://www.drpt.virginia.gov/activities/files/SHRExecutiveSummary.pdf
I get the 12 South Hampton Roads movements (6/day).
I get the 8 NEC-NC trains (4/day, as envisioned elsewhere).
I get the 2 Auto Train movements (1/day).
...what's up with the 8 Florida train movements? That's 4/day, and Amtrak hasn't run that many since the 70s.
2025 Projections:
Option 1: NFK-79 MPH, 1/day
NPN Riders: 211,800
NPN Revenue: $12.460m
NFK Riders: 28,800
NFK Revenue: $1.020m
Total Riders: 240,600
Total Revenue: $13.480m
Option 2: NFK-90 MPH, 1/day
NPN Riders: 199,500
NPN Revenue: $11.970m
NFK Riders: 41,500
NFK Revenue: $1.510m
Total Riders: 241,000
Total Revenue: $13.480m
Versus Baseline:
NPN Riders: 240,200
NPN Revenue: $13.460m
If these numbers pan out, I think the technical term for the project would be "a bust". However, the projections for the same baseline service were 245,500-262,300 in the 2008 report (and 425,700-464,800 for simply adding a third NPN train).
Also, on page 16 of this report:
http://www.drpt.virginia.gov/activities/files/SHRExecutiveSummary.pdf
I get the 12 South Hampton Roads movements (6/day).
I get the 8 NEC-NC trains (4/day, as envisioned elsewhere).
I get the 2 Auto Train movements (1/day).
...what's up with the 8 Florida train movements? That's 4/day, and Amtrak hasn't run that many since the 70s.
Auto Train, Silver Meteor, Silver Palm, Silver Star?
Ok, so when the Norfolk service starts, what would be seen as successful ridership numbers for the first year of operation? Newport News with 2 daily trains at reasonable daytime hours had 122K passengers boarding or alighting in FY2011. If Norfolk with a 5 AM departure, averaged ~3K passengers a month in the first year or around 40K in total (or 100 total per day), would that be seen as a disappointment? Will there be a noticeable drop in ridership from NPN? We will see just how many military personnel and DOD contractors will take the train on weekdays for trips to DC.
Petersburg is other station on the Norfolk Regional extension, but it had only 22K passenger in FY11 while being served by 4 daily Amtrak trains. I don't think there is reason to expect that a Norfolk bound train will add much traffic to Petersburg. Although it might get some small level of Petersburg to/from Norfolk traffic.
BTW, the Silver Palm was running to Florida until 2002, so 8 daily Florida train movement is valid for a study report completed in 2002.
Petersburg is other station on the Norfolk Regional extension, but it had only 22K passenger in FY11 while being served by 4 daily Amtrak trains. I don't think there is reason to expect that a Norfolk bound train will add much traffic to Petersburg. Although it might get some small level of Petersburg to/from Norfolk traffic.
BTW, the Silver Palm was running to Florida until 2002, so 8 daily Florida train movement is valid for a study report completed in 2002.
True. I'm assuming that the Palmetto is included in that report (I've occasionally thrown it in with the Silvers in tallying the "Silver Service" numbers); it's more the fourth train that has me scratching my head. Apparently, Warrington wanted to cheese off CSX a bit more by competing on the A/S lines?
As to Norfolk, I think the service would probably be a success if you get a net of 3k/month on average. If all you do is move the roughly 20,000 bus riders to Norfolk from Newport News, I'd call that a relatively pointless change unless you're drawing enough revenue off of the move to justify it. If you add another 20,000 to the mix that aren't "stolen" off of NPN, however, that might justify it (and 30-40k definitely would). Again, in my mind, it's a question of the net ridership, since if all you are doing is cutting 20,000 riders out of NPN is just pulling $400-500k off of an existing route and moving it to another train within VA's "train universe" (note that all revenue past RVR is irrelevant to the calculations).
So what sort of ridership would I think you'd need to declare it a success? I'd say an addition of 20-30k/year (this plus 20k "stolen" riders from NPN would put the Norfolk extension on par with the Ethan Allen, and put the train in question up to 125k or thereabouts NFK-WAS (given that they're on track for about 75k/yr RVR-WAS). That'd be a reasonable one-train score (even if about half of the route is being helped by being on a multi-frequency route). It would do a bit of damage to the Newport News service, sadly (the day train there actually turns a profit, as I understand it), but I'd consider that a goal to shoot for in the first year, assuming that there would be some ramp-up thereafter.
As to Norfolk, I think the service would probably be a success if you get a net of 3k/month on average. If all you do is move the roughly 20,000 bus riders to Norfolk from Newport News, I'd call that a relatively pointless change unless you're drawing enough revenue off of the move to justify it. If you add another 20,000 to the mix that aren't "stolen" off of NPN, however, that might justify it (and 30-40k definitely would). Again, in my mind, it's a question of the net ridership, since if all you are doing is cutting 20,000 riders out of NPN is just pulling $400-500k off of an existing route and moving it to another train within VA's "train universe" (note that all revenue past RVR is irrelevant to the calculations).
So what sort of ridership would I think you'd need to declare it a success? I'd say an addition of 20-30k/year (this plus 20k "stolen" riders from NPN would put the Norfolk extension on par with the Ethan Allen, and put the train in question up to 125k or thereabouts NFK-WAS (given that they're on track for about 75k/yr RVR-WAS). That'd be a reasonable one-train score (even if about half of the route is being helped by being on a multi-frequency route). It would do a bit of damage to the Newport News service, sadly (the day train there actually turns a profit, as I understand it), but I'd consider that a goal to shoot for in the first year, assuming that there would be some ramp-up thereafter.
johnny.menhennet
Conductor
I know you mentioned NEC-NC trains at 4/day, but do you think that your fourth "Florida" train could be the current Carolinian? Just a thought
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The fourth train is the Palmetto, aka, the Silver Palm. In 1994 the Palmetto was extended to Tampa, had sleepers added, and was renamed the Silver Palm. When this train lost sleeper service in late 2002, the name reverted to the Palmetto. The southern terminus was later cut back to Savannah.
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johnny.menhennet
Conductor
Oh I thought that the AT was being excluded from this as a Florida train per Anderson's first reply, which would therefore leave another gap. If you include the AT, then yes I agree that that and the Palmetto would be the ones to fill it in.
The Auto Train has a separate allowance in the report of two movements (one daily each way), versus the eight "Northeast-Florda" train movements (four daily each way).
The Carolinian would be one of the four Northeast Corridor/North Carolina trains.
The Carolinian would be one of the four Northeast Corridor/North Carolina trains.
johnny.menhennet
Conductor
What was the amount allowed back when both the SL and the Palmetto/SP went to Florida? Was the SL included in any quota of Florida trains?
The SL broke off to go west in Jacksonville. It's never run to Virginia, so it shouldn't be in the mix here. The Meteor and Star would be two trains/four movements. The Palm(etto) would be one train/two movements, leaving one train/two movements unaccounted for.
I'll take a guess: Part of this was possibly Warrington's Network Growth Strategy (maybe aiming to run a train to FL via CLT, as was looked at with the Silver Service PIP). It might also have just been a placeholder for possible expansion.
Shifting the Norfolk ridership topic a bit, I was searching for documents on the plans for the Acca yard bypass and track upgrades to provide through service for the Richmond Main Street station. I came across a May, 2012 PDF document on rail plans for the Richmond region. It is Chapter 10 of a larger draft report. The last several pages list the 2009 Phase 1 and 2 project plan components and projected costs for track, signal, and station upgrades from the new Parnham Road station to Main street to Centralia, VA.
The plans have been or will be refined in the engineering design and EIS process, but it provides a look at what would be needed to have the Norfolk and other Amtrak trains stop at RVM. Which should increase ridership for the Norfolk service.
The plans have been or will be refined in the engineering design and EIS process, but it provides a look at what would be needed to have the Norfolk and other Amtrak trains stop at RVM. Which should increase ridership for the Norfolk service.
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