But now I'm confusing myself about Amtrak overhead allocated to the state-supported corridor trains. ...
As I understand it, before PRIIA, Amtrak charged a negotiated price for each of these; this was at least the incremental cost (Amtrak made money on every deal), but less than the 'fully allocated' cost.
Now, each state has to pay, IIRC, 97% of the "fully allocated" cost? ...
Expansion of the system will spread that overhead over more trains and reduce each state's cost per train.
I am not sure, however, whether more passengers -- or shorter trip times -- on an individual corridor will pick up any additional overhead. If it's really being allocated by train miles, they won't change the overhead allocation.
Additional frequencies should, though: more train miles, so more overhead allocated to those trains. So when the Cascades go from 4 frequencies per day to [6], this takes some overhead weight off of every other train. Same thing when Illinois adds Moline service.
O.K. Looking at the September end of Fiscal 2017, by which time the Stimulus-funded stuff should be operating.
Two more frequencies on the
Cascades Seattle-Portland, and I seem to recall another run or two is coming Portland-Eugene.
Another run of the
San Joaquin.
One daily train Chicago-Quad Cities (Moline service). Or could it be two trains each way?
Chicago-Rockford may get killed by Gov Raunch, so I hesitate to include it here.
More runs New Haven-Hartford-Springfield, but I don't recall if they said how many.
Amtrak Virginia, not sure they'll have anything more by Sept 2017, but by 2020, let's say, it should be two more Norfolk runs, and an extension of the
Lynchburger to Roanoke.
By Sept 2017, Illinois may have cleared the way with the UP for a couple more frequencies on the
Lincoln Service St Louis-Chicago. I can't see who would benefit by announcing any such deal early: Even with two more trains, everyone will gripe that it should have been more. LOL.
By Sept 2017, Michigan may have cleared the way for the long-rumored second run of the
Pere Marquette Grand Rapids-Chicagoa. Or start a train Kalamazoo-Battle Creek-Ann Arbor-Dearborn-Detroit-Pontiac. That's where the first round of cuts to the travel times -- 50 minutes or so -- will happen. Michigan really needs another
Wolverines frequency squeezed thru the most highly congested freight corridor in the country, to get another train from Michican into Chicago. I'm sure Michigan will make their best effort, but I'm not sure it can be done.
Another
Piedmont could happen, as well, but I don't recall an announced date.
But if Iowa Pacific actually runs the
Hoosier State, that'll be a minus from the overhead-paying part of the equation.
And that's all there is to love? Could leave a fella brokenhearted.
The piddling addition being included soonish in the train miles denominator, divided into the numerator of fixed overhead, won't yield a very different result. Sadly not enuff to noticeably lower the "overhead divided by train miles" of the Amtrak system. Bummer. We need a lot more route miles. A lot of 'em.
Looking ahead to 2020, not very far away any more. If the Acela IIs come on time and allow more frequencies on the NEC, they could shoulder a considerable chunk of the overhead.
Then let's see. A second
Lynchburger running to Roanoke, and two or three more
Amtrak Virginia frequencies to Norfolk, Newport News, and/or Richmond. Probably another
Piedmont run. If SEPTA can fix tracks in Philly, likely another frequency or two on the
Keystone, helped by getting the stations fixed. The
Vermonter and the
Ethan Allen should be extended a few miles more by then. And I'm guessing an
Inland Route train or two by 2020, somehow. (If it uses Amfleet I replacements, we'd be solidly back on topic!)
Maybe by 2020 they'll release the ex-Governor from prison and put the current one in, a typical Illinois cycle, and we'll see frequencies added to Carbondale and Quad Cities, with Rockford back on track. Five years from now might get a second run St Paul-Milwaukee-Chicago. More frequencies on the
Hiawathas Milwaukee-Chicago, but so few miles. And dream of another run of the
River Runner St Louis-Kansas City.
There'll probably be another run of the
Pacific Surfliner and on the
Capitol Corridor within five years. Likely another run or two of the
San Joaquin. Cali might get a couple of trains down the Coachella Valley: Redlands-Indio-Palm Springs.
But all of these are short or shortish routes, again not enuff train miles to have enuff impact on "overhead divided by train miles" to see much difference.
To get more train miles, take the
Sunset Shuttle New Orleans-San Antonio, plus
Eagle/Sunset daily San Antonio-L.A., and gain 4/7th of a week's train that way. Similarly 4 more days a week's worth of the
Cardinal. Extend the
Palmetto down to Florida. By 2020 could we get a revived
Broadway Ltd route? A
Coast Daylight would cover some miles.
The host railroad would hate it, and the current, not-yet-imprisoned Governor would hate it, but reports suggest that Amtrak was sniffing around a possible second run of the
CONO Chicago-Memphis. If that's a state-supported train extended from Carbondale, but not another frequency Chicago-Carbondale, then it's just another short route and not much help.
The cure for what ails Amtrak is more Amtrak. But I just don't see much "more Amtrak" en route.