Amtrak Derailment Philadelphia (5/12/2015)

[George K]

The House subcommitee is indeed holding hearings and I wonder if Joe Boardman will be testifying. I presume he would happily agree without pleading the fifth or being compelled to testify.

Germany had an incident as well just recently with a passenger train where a tractor plowed into a train. Rail crossings have risk factors and risks have to be mitigated and safety could be increased to account for issues using technological solutions but it can never be perfect.

For the USA Northeastern corridor rail traffic is over 11 million passengers, I don't know exact figures but death toll is statistically low.

More people use rail in the northeast corridor than airplane I believe. NYC to WAS is not one of the top used routes for instance. Issue can be resolved quickly here and prevented increasing safety rates.

According to USA Today, since its inception, Amtrak has had fewer than 200 passenger fatalities. Most of them were caused by people jumping on or off trains. That's a pretty good record. Per passenger mile, only flying is safer (by a factor of about 2).

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/05/13/amtrak-rail-fatalities-safety-recommendations/27230569/

 

[guest_nj_2]

Assuming those were indeed bricks or stones that hit both SEPTA and Amtrak 188,

the most probable explanation would be that they were thrown from a bridge.

It's almost impossible to time the rock throw from the ground to hit the windshield

of a moving train; it's much easier to do from an elevation.

Unless there were two coordinated gang groups in separate locations, most likely

these objects were thrown from the same bridge, one at the PHL-bound SEPTA

and another at the NYC-bound Amtrak 188.

Are there any bridges in the area (around Germantown Ave or so ?) where this

could have been perpetrated ?

 

[guest_nj_2]

for example, bridge across rail tracks on North 5-th street ?

It seems to have concrete guards, but they are not too tall,

a couple of people (especially under the cover of night) can

lean over it.

 

[Shack]

Assuming those were indeed bricks or stones that hit both SEPTA and Amtrak 188,

the most probable explanation would be that they were thrown from a bridge.

It's almost impossible to time the rock throw from the ground to hit the windshield

of a moving train; it's much easier to do from an elevation.

Unless there were two coordinated gang groups in separate locations, most likely

these objects were thrown from the same bridge, one at the PHL-bound SEPTA

and another at the NYC-bound Amtrak 188.

Are there any bridges in the area (around Germantown Ave or so ?) where this

could have been perpetrated ?

The Acela that was hit seems to have been struck broadside. Has anyone seen pictures of the SEPTA train damage after it was struck?

Putting the available info together, it seems like a launched projectile with greater mass and/or velocity than a kid tossing a rock. All speculation, of course, but Nutter should be preparing a nice dish of crow in case he needs to eat it.

 

[MattW]

Jis, could Amtrak ask the FRA to allow them to transmit cab-60 instead of Approach Limited through the curve? It seems that a speed just 10mph over the limit would still provide a considerable margin of safety, without having to lengthen the schedule, considering thousands of trains have operated through that curve with no speed enforcement with no speed-related issues.

 

[Guest]

The only plausible senario that would not implicate the engineer is that there was a problem with the Sprinter. Even if an object is thrown, the windshield is made so it won't affect the vehicle and it should not have led to this incident.

Had a disabling event happened, and correct speed was being used, the train would have just slown down. The speed up condition would not have happened.

One possible senario could be that the train was hacked. Every vehicle has security limitations that need to be addressed and security of computer based transportation is more important than ever. Another senario is firmware problem with sudden acceleration.

The three incidents of items being thrown at trains should in no way have forced a train derailment. Only way it could have been related is if it was a smokescreen event designed to hide the true cause and was intentionally staged. Obviously others have the expertise I don't have in the Sprinter control design and have operated these trains but I find it implausible the engineers would have made a design that could have allowed this outcome to happen.

I am more familiar with aircraft controls than train controls and the advanced avionics are quite incredible and the Sprinters were supposed to be the latest state of the art locomotives.

 

[andersone]

i am amazed at how selective we are

big time highway tragedies don't' get congressional investigations

it takes an earthquake to bring down a bridge down to question highways

no comment on flighted disasters

 

[FormerOBS]

You're thinking about airplane controls or automobile controls. Your confusion is understandable.

I understand the normal procedure in this territory is for the engineer to advance the throttle to Run 8 and allow the train to continue to accelerate until a short distance before the curve, when he would have eased back on the throttle and made a controlled brake application to bring the train down to an appropriate speed for the curve. One possible scenario is that a projectile struck the locomotive just about the time he should have been beginning to decelerate. In this scenario, he was briefly rendered incapable of carrying out his normal routine procedures.

The engine does not immediately stop accelerating just because the engineer takes his hand off the throttle. A motion sensor detects an engineer's lack of movement after a short time and an audible alarm is sounded. If he does not respond after another short time period (varies), then the brakes are automatically applied. In this highly unusual case, he took his hand off the throttle while the engine was at 60 or 70 miles per hour and still accelerating. According to this scenario, the engineer was incapacitated during this brief period. In the following seconds, the alerter probably sounded (speculation on my part), and Engineer Bostian responded before the system had a chance to apply brakes. He hit the red emergency brake button, which "dumped the air", putting the train into a full emergency stop. I understand the speed dropped from about 106 or 107 m.p.h. to about 102 m.p.h., at which point he entire train derailed.

You may think the system should stop the train any time the engineer takes his hand off the throttle. Over the course of a trip, many, many changes in throttle settings are necessary between Washington and New York. There are also many times when the engineer can take his hand off the throttle. If the system demanded that he keep his hand on the throttle constantly, it would be almost impossible for a normal human being to do so. In fact, the very act of maintaining constant throttle contact would probably be very distracting in itself.

The area is said to be a high crime area where trains are routinely "rocked" as they pass by. Rocks, bricks, etc. are thrown at passing trains from trackside or from bridges. This has been the case for generations. I understand President Theodore Roosevelt's train got the rock treatment in 1905.

It is understandable that engineers are reluctant to move through this area any more slowly than absolutely necessary. I believe Bostian, aware of the rock problem, wanted to get to the curve as quickly as possible, decelerate to the regulation speed, then accelerate to get out of town as quickly as possible. If the projectile theory holds, then the rock(s) interfered with his ability to do so.

I must add that the final explanation has still not been determined.

Tom

 

[DryCreek]

The three incidents of items being thrown at trains should in no way have forced a train derailment. Only way it could have been related is if it was a smokescreen event designed to hide the true cause and was intentionally staged. Obviously others have the expertise I don't have in the Sprinter control design and have operated these trains but I find it implausible the engineers would have made a design that could have allowed this outcome to happen.

I am amused by the posters that are lightly prancing around the damaged train windows.

So, exactly what item do you propose was "thrown at the train"? A pebble? A rock somewhat less than 1/2" in diameter? Go back and look at the impact area in each of the photos. We are not talking about bricks or cinder blocks being heaved off of a bridge.

Those windshields are designed to prevent penetration of low caliber bullets. In both both images you can see that they very nearly penetrated the glass from a point impact. Now, if those are caused by some misguided youth throwing small rocks, pebbles or marbles, then if they could turn their life around they have a very promising career as a major league pitcher!

When you know what the windshield is designed to protect you against, and suddenly a round impact with most likely a very sharp crack and splinters from glass spalling flies into your control cab, I would naturally assume that I was taking small arms fire. I would duck and high-tail it out of the area.

But, if it makes you feel better to just imagine that it is little more than a rock striking the windshield of a car, I guess that would allow you to more easily discount that as a possible explanation for the engineer not controlling speed around a bend.

 

[Macintosh Worm]

If folks keep speculating here until the NTSB issues its findings report in, oh about a year, this thread will likely be 'one for the record books' for AU.

Has anyone suggest that the onboard computer in the engine was hacked yet?

 

[FormerOBS]

I have no idea what the object was, or even if there really was one (or more). We'll probably have to wait for the investigation to be concluded before we'll know for sure.

Tom

 

[KmH]

Has anyone suggest that the onboard computer in the engine was hacked yet?

Post #581 mentions it.

 

[Ryan]

The only plausible senario that would not implicate the engineer is that there was a problem with the Sprinter. Even if an object is thrown, the windshield is made so it won't affect the vehicle and it should not have led to this incident.

We're not talking about an object "thrown". You need to broaden your imagination.

I am amused by the posters that are lightly prancing around the damaged train windows.

So, exactly what item do you propose was "thrown at the train"? A pebble? A rock somewhat less than 1/2" in diameter?

I'm thinking something more metallic, primarily lead. Maybe around 9mm in diameter or so?

Here's a picture of the three windows in question. Note that the rightmost image is of the side window of the Acela. If someone was able to throw a rock hard enough to do that to the side of a train as it passed, forget the police, every MLB scout in the nation will be hunting that kid down.

 

[FormerOBS]

I take back what I said before. Now that I get a better view, it looks like bullets could have done that.

Tom

 

[Ryan]

While looking for the picture of the David L. Gunn, I realized that one of my few ACS-64 pictures is of the 601:

 

[guest_nj_2]

Still -- even if the trains were shot at (instead of thrown rocks at), then it was done

likely from the bridge (much easier to hit the windshield). Acela could have been shot

from the ground. Locating the possible bridge may help investigation tremendously

(as they can search around it for ricocheted bullets).

Incredible nuts are the people who shoot at trains, point lasers at descending planes, etc.

 

[OlympianHiawatha]

Incredible nuts are the people who shoot at trains, point lasers at descending planes, etc.

Ones who need about 20-30 years minimum in an 8 by 12 to think about it!

 

[capltd29]

Incredible nuts are the people who shoot at trains, point lasers at descending planes, etc.

Ones who need about 20-30 years minimum in an 8 by 12 to think about it!

Maybe 20-30 years per fatality? 10 years per injury? Sounds fair to me, although I would prefer maybe a 4'X6'.

 

[GG-1]

Many of us here have had enough, PLEASE stop turning this Tragedy into a mockery with wild guesses. Let the experts finish the investigation.

 

[NW cannonball]

For those interested in hearing it from the proverbial horse's mouth, you can see the third presser from NTSB in its entirety here:

I've learned to like Sumwalt's pressers. Viewed half-a-dozen last few years. Very clear, very upfront about what NTSB knows, what they will further investigate."Just the facts, and we don't know all the facts yet"

The final report will likely take a year or more.

But -- as with the recent Metro-North overspeed wreck, and several others, urgent safety findings will be released much sooner.

The final report (there's lots of those freely availble at NTSB.gov) will include a whole long checklist of determinations and reccomendations, from track and signal to train condition, survivability, weather, emergency response (seems Philly did a good job on the emergency response), management failures, regulatory problems - and much much more.

Unfortunatly, the NTSB's final recommendations often aren't implemented.

"Positive train control? --delayed again and again"

 

[Rover]

Still -- even if the trains were shot at (instead of thrown rocks at), then it was done

likely from the bridge (much easier to hit the windshield). Acela could have been shot

from the ground. Locating the possible bridge may help investigation tremendously

(as they can search around it for ricocheted bullets).

In the case of a likely bridge where this keeps happening, why wouldn't the DOT or some othe agency pay to have survelience cameras installed there???

 

[caravanman]

I for one don't like this "kangaroo court" thread on AU. Nobody here knows what went wrong, and these "guest" airplane and other "experts" who have all the answers for how other folk should behave in an imaginary scenario of their own minds, have no more FACTS than anyone else. Is it American justice to hang a man first, and have the trial later ??

Ed

 

[Henry Kisor]

It is human nature to want immediate answers. That is what the media plays to. Yes, we should wait until the NTSB makes its final report in a year (it may make a preliminary report within 30 days) but let's face it, we are a species that demands immediate gratification.

 

[NW cannonball]

It is human nature to want immediate answers. That is what the media plays to. Yes, we should wait until the NTSB makes its final report in a year (it may make a preliminary report within 30 days) but let's face it, we are a species that demands immediate gratification.

And, we should consider that, every day, on the WAS-NYP corridor - at least 8 people die and a few hundred are damaged in road traffic - automobiles, buses, pedestrians.Not to say that we shouldnt fix rail transport risks.

Some perspective, and relative risk analysis (sorry, media)

Actually, and obviously - riding Amtrak WAS-NYP is a whole lot safer than driving, or walking, or even crossing the street in North Philadelphia. (Not to mention "falls in the home" or "Acetaminophen overdose") (statistically - much bigger risks

 

[jis]

Yup I am getting a bit tired of it too. Tried to steer it back to known and verified facts but then found it quite distressing when otherwise sane folks on AU started losing their marbles and speculating away. So I guess I am done participating here for the time being. Have fun!

If anyone wants to chat about serious stuff seriously feel free to pm.