National Weather Service 2010 Flood Forecast

[jmbgeg]

NWS predicts 2010 will be a bad flood year for North Dakota. Saw the story on CNN then found the NWS website.

http://www.weather.gov/oh/hic/nho/

That typically means cancellations and re-routes for the Builder. Given this prediction, one would think that Amtrak would have pre-negotiated alternative routes with the track owners (freight lines) that allow them to automatically notify and them and re-route south of North Dakota, if tracks are flooded or flooding is projected. Why do I sense that hasn't happened.? Am I missing something? I know that the exact location of the floods is not known but past experience gives pretty good hints. Cancellations are highly problematic for ticketed passengers, and for those of us in the west (and others), it also affects Coast Starlight connections.

 

[PetalumaLoco]

I scanned thru it. Nothing about when, only where. What's the likelyhood of the EB flooding out in mid August?

 

[jmbgeg]

I scanned thru it. Nothing about when, only where. What's the likelyhood of the EB flooding out in mid August?

The CNN story spoke of spring floods. I don't recall Fargo or nearby floods in August so you are likely safe if traveling then.

 

[PetalumaLoco]

I scanned thru it. Nothing about when, only where. What's the likelyhood of the EB flooding out in mid August?

The CNN story spoke of spring floods. I don't recall Fargo or nearby floods in August so you are likely safe if traveling then.

Thanks. I'll leave my water wings at home.

 

[Ispolkom]

I scanned thru it. Nothing about when, only where. What's the likelyhood of the EB flooding out in mid August?

Zero. The Red River floods in April (okay, last year it flooded in March, but that was weird).

 

[wcswingdance]

I am traveling on the EB on May 8. How likely is a flood in May?

 

[jmbgeg]

I am traveling on the EB on May 8. How likely is a flood in May?

Maybe someone on this board can help on that. Perhaps NWS' Fargo office could tell you about the history of May floods.

No one has replied yet to my question about Amtrak contingency routing.

 

[Bootman4U]

I'm taking the EB at the very end of April.

I predict we will travel as planned..OK, call me stupid but IMo conjecture about when, where, etc., is just that so I continue to look on the bright side.

 

[Dirk]

I live in Fargo. We're expecting a crest sometime around April 15 between 30 (manageable) and 42 feet (catastrophic). However, the weather has been cooperating with us the past few weeks. It has been a slow melt thus far and the river hasn't risen too much or too fast. Everyone here is holding their breath that this keeps up and that we won't be looking at too much of a flood.

It's pretty rare to see any of the local rivers do any significant flooding past the end of April, but it does occasionally happen.

The main issue isn't so much the Red River at Fargo. The track through Fargo is actually substantially higher than the surrounding land, so it does not flood (and if it did, Fargo goes bye bye). The issue is that the land mainly to the north and the west of Fargo floods just from the snowmelt itself due to the extreme flatness, the rivers just make it worse. Last year, IIRC, they simply skipped Grand Forks, Devils Lake and Rugby and went on a more southern route where the overland flooding wasn't as bad.

 

[jmbgeg]

I live in Fargo. We're expecting a crest sometime around April 15 between 30 (manageable) and 42 feet (catastrophic). However, the weather has been cooperating with us the past few weeks. It has been a slow melt thus far and the river hasn't risen too much or too fast. Everyone here is holding their breath that this keeps up and that we won't be looking at too much of a flood.
It's pretty rare to see any of the local rivers do any significant flooding past the end of April, but it does occasionally happen.

The main issue isn't so much the Red River at Fargo. The track through Fargo is actually substantially higher than the surrounding land, so it does not flood (and if it did, Fargo goes bye bye). The issue is that the land mainly to the north and the west of Fargo floods just from the snowmelt itself due to the extreme flatness, the rivers just make it worse. Last year, IIRC, they simply skipped Grand Forks, Devils Lake and Rugby and went on a more southern route where the overland flooding wasn't as bad.

Sounds like a good use of stimulus funds is to elevate or reroute tracks to protect the freight route (and Amtrak).

 

[jmbgeg]

NWS predicts 2010 will be a bad flood year for North Dakota. Saw the story on CNN then found the NWS website.
http://www.weather.gov/oh/hic/nho/

That typically means cancellations and re-routes for the Builder. Given this prediction, one would think that Amtrak would have pre-negotiated alternative routes with the track owners (freight lines) that allow them to automatically notify and them and re-route south of North Dakota, if tracks are flooded or flooding is projected. Why do I sense that hasn't happened.? Am I missing something? I know that the exact location of the floods is not known but past experience gives pretty good hints. Cancellations are highly problematic for ticketed passengers, and for those of us in the west (and others), it also affects Coast Starlight connections.

More info:

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/mar/...or-worst-again/

 

[Dirk]

I do need to state the fact that major flooding around this area is nothing serious, as odd as that sounds. The Red River hits major flood stage at 30 feet (typical stage is around 16 feet, flood stage is 19 feet) in Fargo. The river regularly gets above flood stage and even into this major area with no ill effects. It's when the river goes north of 36-37 feet that life becomes a bit difficult around here. Flooding is a way of life in the valley and most things are built to deal with that, including the transportation system.

The NWS and the media are doing a good job playing up the situation this year. But, most of the locals just aren't buying it yet. I have my doubts this year will be anything like last year. A lot of locals think the river in Fargo might hit 30-35 feet, but nothing like we saw in 2009.

 

[jmbgeg]

I do need to state the fact that major flooding around this area is nothing serious, as odd as that sounds. The Red River hits major flood stage at 30 feet (typical stage is around 16 feet, flood stage is 19 feet) in Fargo. The river regularly gets above flood stage and even into this major area with no ill effects. It's when the river goes north of 36-37 feet that life becomes a bit difficult around here. Flooding is a way of life in the valley and most things are built to deal with that, including the transportation system.
The NWS and the media are doing a good job playing up the situation this year. But, most of the locals just aren't buying it yet. I have my doubts this year will be anything like last year. A lot of locals think the river in Fargo might hit 30-35 feet, but nothing like we saw in 2009.

Thanks for adding context. I don't want to cry wolf if there is no exigent situation.

 

[Dirk]

Thanks for adding context. I don't want to cry wolf if there is no exigent situation.

It's one of those things that's just too early to tell - but it's good to be aware what's going on if you do plan on taking the EB during the end of March through May. We could get incredibly lucky and not see much flooding at all. Or, we could get hit with 2-3" of rain while the snow melts and be dealing with 45 feet. The weather in ND is predictably unpredictable. The silly thing about this river is that it takes only a few days to flood but weeks to recede.

Believe me, I do question why I live here. :lol:

 

[jmbgeg]

Thanks for adding context. I don't want to cry wolf if there is no exigent situation.

It's one of those things that's just too early to tell - but it's good to be aware what's going on if you do plan on taking the EB during the end of March through May. We could get incredibly lucky and not see much flooding at all. Or, we could get hit with 2-3" of rain while the snow melts and be dealing with 45 feet. The weather in ND is predictably unpredictable. The silly thing about this river is that it takes only a few days to flood but weeks to recede.

Believe me, I do question why I live here. :lol:

Still-not one poster has weighed in on my comments about Amtrak contingency plans for re-routing; only on whether it will flood in ND or not. :huh:

 

[Grand Forks Rider]

Still-not one poster has weighed in on my comments about Amtrak contingency plans for re-routing; only on whether it will flood in ND or not. :huh:

Last year when the flooding made the EB's normal route through ND impassable, Amtrak and BNSF reached an agreement to reroute the EB along the freight-heavy "Surrey Cutoff" between Fargo and Minot. This was done for most of March and April, although at one point the flooding got so bad along this stretch of track that it too became impassable. I imagine the same arrangment could be worked out this year as well, and, frankly, I'd be surprised if Amtrak and BNSF haven't already discussed the option. Fortunately for Amtrak riders, the flood outlook for the part of the state this alternate route runs through doesn't look as bad as last year.

Other than the Surrey Cutoff, there's little in the way of other options for rerouting. Was there a particular route you had in mind as being feasible for sending the EB down? Another factor to consider is the railroads are probably not going to be all that receptive to rerouting, since they would have to supply a pilot to accompany the Amtrak crew.

Apart from the Red River, I'm a bit concerned with the potential for flooding along the track near Churchs Ferry (just west of Devils Lake). The water table in that entire region has been rising for years now, and just outside of Churchs Ferry is a lake that has surrounded the tracks, creating something of a causeway. Just take a look at a satellite image. a small rise in the water there could potentially exacerbate the problem and force Amtrak off the tracks. That said, I'm still planning on taking a trip on the EB during the first week of May.

 

[jmbgeg]

Still-not one poster has weighed in on my comments about Amtrak contingency plans for re-routing; only on whether it will flood in ND or not. :huh:

Last year when the flooding made the EB's normal route through ND impassable, Amtrak and BNSF reached an agreement to reroute the EB along the freight-heavy "Surrey Cutoff" between Fargo and Minot. This was done for most of March and April, although at one point the flooding got so bad along this stretch of track that it too became impassable. I imagine the same arrangment could be worked out this year as well, and, frankly, I'd be surprised if Amtrak and BNSF haven't already discussed the option. Fortunately for Amtrak riders, the flood outlook for the part of the state this alternate route runs through doesn't look as bad as last year.

Other than the Surrey Cutoff, there's little in the way of other options for rerouting. Was there a particular route you had in mind as being feasible for sending the EB down? Another factor to consider is the railroads are probably not going to be all that receptive to rerouting, since they would have to supply a pilot to accompany the Amtrak crew.

Apart from the Red River, I'm a bit concerned with the potential for flooding along the track near Churchs Ferry (just west of Devils Lake). The water table in that entire region has been rising for years now, and just outside of Churchs Ferry is a lake that has surrounded the tracks, creating something of a causeway. Just take a look at a satellite image. a small rise in the water there could potentially exacerbate the problem and force Amtrak off the tracks. That said, I'm still planning on taking a trip on the EB during the first week of May.

I do not know the track system south of Fargo well enough to suggest an alternative route. For the definition of feasible, consider how late the CZ is from time to time. Very late. An EB route around well south of Fargo would not make the EB as late as many CZ trains. That impacts Fargo and possibly even MSP passengers, but is better than a cancellation.

 

[Grand Forks Rider]

I do not know the track system south of Fargo well enough to suggest an alternative route. For the definition of feasible, consider how late the CZ is from time to time. Very late. An EB route around well south of Fargo would not make the EB as late as many CZ trains. That impacts Fargo and possibly even MSP passengers, but is better than a cancellation.

In theory, I suppose the EB could be routed west from MSP through Willmar, MN, from there to Benson, MN, and finally onto the ex-Milwaukee Road (MILW) main line that crosses the Minnesota/South Dakota border between Ortonville, MN and Big Stone City, SD. That would get you comfortably away from the Red River Valley but not too far from the EB's normal route. However, one problem with the layout of the railroad system in the region is the near lack of any purely north-south main lines. If you did run the EB on the MILW route, the first location where the train would presumably be able to get back to its regular route would be Terry, MT, but that would still have quite a few problems. A better option would probably be to run the train on the old North Coast Hiawatha route to Laurel, MT and have it take a secondary BNSF main line from there to Shelby, where it could finally get back to the usual route. Taking this route, the train would travel over 1,000 miles on "unfamilar" tracks, go through 8 BNSF crew districts, travel down a lot of relatively slow secondary trackage, and have to fight its way through fleets of long, heavy coal trains. It'd really be a miracle if the train could get to Shelby any faster than it could on a normal day. I know we all hate to see an Amtrak train cancelled, but sometimes there really are no other good alternatives.

For anybody interested, here's a PDF that has a pretty good overview map of the railroads in the region. While there are a lot of lines out there, keep in mind that many of them are 10-25 mph branches that primarily serve grain elevators.

 

[jmbgeg]

I do not know the track system south of Fargo well enough to suggest an alternative route. For the definition of feasible, consider how late the CZ is from time to time. Very late. An EB route around well south of Fargo would not make the EB as late as many CZ trains. That impacts Fargo and possibly even MSP passengers, but is better than a cancellation.

In theory, I suppose the EB could be routed west from MSP through Willmar, MN, from there to Benson, MN, and finally onto the ex-Milwaukee Road (MILW) main line that crosses the Minnesota/South Dakota border between Ortonville, MN and Big Stone City, SD. That would get you comfortably away from the Red River Valley but not too far from the EB's normal route. However, one problem with the layout of the railroad system in the region is the near lack of any purely north-south main lines. If you did run the EB on the MILW route, the first location where the train would presumably be able to get back to its regular route would be Terry, MT, but that would still have quite a few problems. A better option would probably be to run the train on the old North Coast Hiawatha route to Laurel, MT and have it take a secondary BNSF main line from there to Shelby, where it could finally get back to the usual route. Taking this route, the train would travel over 1,000 miles on "unfamilar" tracks, go through 8 BNSF crew districts, travel down a lot of relatively slow secondary trackage, and have to fight its way through fleets of long, heavy coal trains. It'd really be a miracle if the train could get to Shelby any faster than it could on a normal day. I know we all hate to see an Amtrak train cancelled, but sometimes there really are no other good alternatives.

For anybody interested, here's a PDF that has a pretty good overview map of the railroads in the region. While there are a lot of lines out there, keep in mind that many of them are 10-25 mph branches that primarily serve grain elevators.

Very instructive map. Maybe you answered it above, but if the Builder had to go from MSP to Aberdeen, when/how could it intersect with the original route?

 

[Grand Forks Rider]

Very instructive map. Maybe you answered it above, but if the Builder had to go from MSP to Aberdeen, when/how could it intersect with the original route?

It's cut off from the map just to the left, but the first realistic spot I mentioned would be Terry, MT. From there, it would then have to backtrack to the NE a bit to reach Snowden, MT, a very scenic spot along the Missouri River on the Montana/North Dakota border about 15 miles west of Williston. The problems with that routing, however, include a rather time-consuming move to make the train face north at Terry and an 80 mile segment of rickety branch line trackage.

 

[Grand Forks Rider]

To make things a little easier to visualize, perhaps this PDF of the Montana rail system would help.

 

[jmbgeg]

Very instructive map. Maybe you answered it above, but if the Builder had to go from MSP to Aberdeen, when/how could it intersect with the original route?

It's cut off from the map just to the left, but the first realistic spot I mentioned would be Terry, MT. From there, it would then have to backtrack to the NE a bit to reach Snowden, MT, a very scenic spot along the Missouri River on the Montana/North Dakota border about 15 miles west of Williston. The problems with that routing, however, include a rather time-consuming move to make the train face north at Terry and an 80 mile segment of rickety branch line trackage.

You are very knowledgeable about the routes. In the industry?

 

[jphjaxfl]

I was stationed at Grand Forks AFB from 1, 1972 to 5,1975 and rode the Empire Builder frequently. There was no flooding that rerouted the Empire Builder during that period. At the time, the Empire Builder used the former GN line from Fargo through Breckenridge and Willmar which could still be used. I also lived in Minneapolis from 1975 to 1996 and the only disruption of the Empire Builder that I remember was the really bad flood that hit Grand Forks back in the early 1990s. There are actually 3 rail lines from Fargo to Minneapolis, the former NP line via Detroit Lakes, Staples and St Cloud which the Empire Builder uses now, but was formerly used by the North Coast Hiawatha, the former GN line via Breckenridge and Wilmar and the former GN line via Alexandria and St. Cloud. All 3 had passenger service until Amtrak started in 1971. One night when I was on the Empire Builder from Minneapolis to Grand Forks, there was a derailment on the Willmar line so the train was rerouted between Minneapolis and Fargo on the Alexandria line. I am not sure a passenger train could run through on the Alexandria line now. The Minneapolis - Aberdeen former Milwaukee Road line is now the Twin Cities Western. I doubt it would be capable of handling a passenger train since its been devoid of passenger service for at least 5 years longer than any of the BNSF lines.

I wouldn't worry about advance arrangement. BNSF is very good about accomodating Amtrak if a re-route is possible.

 

[Bootman4U]

I was stationed at Grand Forks AFB from 1, 1972 to 5,1975 and rode the Empire Builder frequently. There was no flooding that rerouted the Empire Builder during that period. At the time, the Empire Builder used the former GN line from Fargo through Breckenridge and Willmar which could still be used. I also lived in Minneapolis from 1975 to 1996 and the only disruption of the Empire Builder that I remember was the really bad flood that hit Grand Forks back in the early 1990s. There are actually 3 rail lines from Fargo to Minneapolis, the former NP line via Detroit Lakes, Staples and St Cloud which the Empire Builder uses now, but was formerly used by the North Coast Hiawatha, the former GN line via Breckenridge and Wilmar and the former GN line via Alexandria and St. Cloud. All 3 had passenger service until Amtrak started in 1971. One night when I was on the Empire Builder from Minneapolis to Grand Forks, there was a derailment on the Willmar line so the train was rerouted between Minneapolis and Fargo on the Alexandria line. I am not sure a passenger train could run through on the Alexandria line now. The Minneapolis - Aberdeen former Milwaukee Road line is now the Twin Cities Western. I doubt it would be capable of handling a passenger train since its been devoid of passenger service for at least 5 years longer than any of the BNSF lines.I wouldn't worry about advance arrangement. BNSF is very good about accomodating Amtrak if a re-route is possible.

I was just going to say that when I took the original EB back in the late 60's it DID run through Willmar!

As to some(one) having to supply a "pilot" for another route..what is with that? Are you saying that these "drivers" aren't familiar with running a locomotive or obeying signals?

 

[Ryan]

As to some(one) having to supply a "pilot" for another route..what is with that? Are you saying that these "drivers" aren't familiar with running a locomotive or obeying signals?

It's not that easy - you need to be familiar with the territory and qualified to operate on it (which obviously Amtrak crews wouldn't be).