Government shutdown possible

[BobWeaver]

It is unfortunate that defense programs often times live and die by shifts due to modernization and changes in threats, which, in addition to funding concerns, was what brought down the Next Gen Cruiser program.

Changes in the threat had nothing to do with the cancellation of CG(X) - since then I moved onto a company that does threat modeling and if anything the threat has evolved such that CG(X) is even more necessary than it was 4 years ago. Point is, you can't just blindly trust that the DoD has it's priorities straight and is a fathlful steward of the taxpayers dollars because I'm here to tell you that you can't and they aren't.

You'll enjoy this article. While cost may have been the larger factor, threat definitely played a major role.

 

[Oldsmoboi]

The Republicans are accusing the Democrats of "not being serious" about the budget deficit, yet the budget that Congressman Paul Ryan proposed gives yet another tax cut to the rich and pays for it by cutting medicare and programs for the poor....because that totally created jobs the last few times we did it..... Talk about not being serious...

 

[jis]

However, as you correctly said, the major impacts of a government shutdown will not be with Amtrak. Amtrak will indeed be the least of the worries, and because of that, the shutdown should not last long enough to get Amtrak involved.

And also because Amtrak has something like 75% cost recovery, if it manages its cashflow carefully, it could continue operating for quite a while even in the face of temporary suspension of federal subsidies. It could cut back or reschedule many non critical projects to preserve cash for the period.

 

[jis]

It is unfortunate that defense programs often times live and die by shifts due to modernization and changes in threats, which, in addition to funding concerns, was what brought down the Next Gen Cruiser program.

Changes in the threat had nothing to do with the cancellation of CG(X) - since then I moved onto a company that does threat modeling and if anything the threat has evolved such that CG(X) is even more necessary than it was 4 years ago. Point is, you can't just blindly trust that the DoD has it's priorities straight and is a fathlful steward of the taxpayers dollars because I'm here to tell you that you can't and they aren't.

You'll enjoy this article. While cost may have been the larger factor, threat definitely played a major role.

I'd strongly recommend that you guys get back to the topic of impact on Amtrak of Government Shutdown. Just sayin'. After blaming others of "Spamming" it is hardly becoming to continue on a line of discussion that has precious little to do with Amtrak. Afterall it will be quite a while before Amtrak is charged with producing and launching cruise missiles, or even running a submarine service This site also provides you with facility of PM where you can discuss missiles and submarines to your heart's content with each other.

 

[BobWeaver]

However, as you correctly said, the major impacts of a government shutdown will not be with Amtrak. Amtrak will indeed be the least of the worries, and because of that, the shutdown should not last long enough to get Amtrak involved.

And also because Amtrak has something like 75% cost recovery, if it manages its cashflow carefully, it could continue operating for quite a while even in the face of temporary suspension of federal subsidies. It could cut back or reschedule many non critical projects to preserve cash for the period.

Any ideas as to what the low-hanging fruit would be if this problem comes to reality?

 

[PRR 60]

However, as you correctly said, the major impacts of a government shutdown will not be with Amtrak. Amtrak will indeed be the least of the worries, and because of that, the shutdown should not last long enough to get Amtrak involved.

And also because Amtrak has something like 75% cost recovery, if it manages its cashflow carefully, it could continue operating for quite a while even in the face of temporary suspension of federal subsidies. It could cut back or reschedule many non critical projects to preserve cash for the period.

I'm not sure I'd say "quite a while". Amtrak's typical cash burn (negative cash flow from operations) is about $100 million per month. At the end of January, Amtrak's available cash was just over $80 million. Total passenger revenue (tickets, food, state support) is about $165 million per month. Wages, benefits, train ops (freight RR payments), fuel and power are about $205 million per month. Even assuming deferral of everything else, it's hard to see how they could operate more than a couple of weeks without the infusion of federal subsidy.

However, considering the havoc that a federal shutdown will cause elsewhere, I don't see the shutdown continuing to the point where Amtrak gets pulled into the mess.

 

[Ryan]

It is unfortunate that defense programs often times live and die by shifts due to modernization and changes in threats, which, in addition to funding concerns, was what brought down the Next Gen Cruiser program.

Changes in the threat had nothing to do with the cancellation of CG(X) - since then I moved onto a company that does threat modeling and if anything the threat has evolved such that CG(X) is even more necessary than it was 4 years ago. Point is, you can't just blindly trust that the DoD has it's priorities straight and is a fathlful steward of the taxpayers dollars because I'm here to tell you that you can't and they aren't.

You'll enjoy this article. While cost may have been the larger factor, threat definitely played a major role.

I'd strongly recommend that you guys get back to the topic of impact on Amtrak of Government Shutdown. Just sayin'. After blaming others of "Spamming" it is hardly becoming to continue on a line of discussion that has precious little to do with Amtrak. Afterall it will be quite a while before Amtrak is charged with producing and launching cruise missiles, or even running a submarine service This site also provides you with facility of PM where you can discuss missiles and submarines to your heart's content with each other.

Thanks, Jis.

I would like to correct the record and point out that DDG-1000 and CG(X) were two different programs, and that CG(X) would have brought far more IAMD (Integrated Air and Missile Defense) capability to the table than what was built to be a "land attack destroyer"

However, as you correctly said, the major impacts of a government shutdown will not be with Amtrak. Amtrak will indeed be the least of the worries, and because of that, the shutdown should not last long enough to get Amtrak involved.

And also because Amtrak has something like 75% cost recovery, if it manages its cashflow carefully, it could continue operating for quite a while even in the face of temporary suspension of federal subsidies. It could cut back or reschedule many non critical projects to preserve cash for the period.

Any ideas as to what the low-hanging fruit would be if this problem comes to reality?

All repair/maintenance/upgrade work on rolling stock and ROW other than FRA mandated inspections.

Furlough people working on things like E-ticketing, website upgrades, etc, etc.

Reduce number of agents at larger stations.

Reduce station hours at smaller stations (including the complete closure of some smaller stations like BWI where the platform is still accessible where the station building is closed).

Edit to add:

Marketing (both personnel and stop/suspend ad buys)

Reduce train frequency on corridor routes (reduced number of operating crews needed)

 

[Green Maned Lion]

I don't appreciate people suggesting I have no idea what I am talking about without producing an iota of evidence that doesn't come from a news company that they know more than me on the subject. I don't mind, for instance, George Harris correcting me rail alignments, engineering, or other areas where he knows a hell of a lot more than I.

But, Mr. Weaver, if you wish to proclaim me to be wrong, I would like you to provide some solid first hand evidence to attest to your statement. Otherwise, what we have are differing opinions.

Furthermore, if you think that any operation, irrespective of who it is, has a capability of properly managing their monetary expenditures when they have very very limited controls on them... you're a cockeyed optimist.

 

[alanh]

With respect to the DoD, it won't surprise anyone that the US is the top spender in the world. What does surpise people is by how much.

In 2009, the US spent $663 billion. The #2 spender, China, spent $98.8 billion. The US spent 6.7 times more than the next highest country.

In fact, the US spent more the next 16 countries combined -- more than the total sum of China, United Kingdom, France, Russia, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Italy, India, South Korea, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Spain, Turkey, and Israel. [And Israel's is subsidized by the US.]

Ok, the US has a bigger economy than these countries. The US spent 4.3% of its GDP. The only other countries in that range are small Middle Eastern and African countries. The highest western nation is Greece at 3.6%. For the top spenders, China, 2.0%; United Kingdom, 2.5%; France, 2.3%; Russia, 3.5%; Germany, 1.3%.

Anyway you slice it, the US taxpayers have a much higher burden than any of these other countries. You could argue that the US needs to be able to be a world-class power. Fine, but be prepared to pay world-class taxes to pay for it.

Anyway, the relevance to Amtrak is to illustrate how stupid "Get rid of Amtrak, the Park Service, earmarks, and foreign aid, and the budget will be balanced." NOT EVEN CLOSE, NOT EVEN A START.

 

[AlanB]

As posted else where on the net:

From a NARP e-mail:

Government Shutdown Should Not Affect Amtrak

​

At this mornings Amtrak hearing of the House Appropriations subcommittee chaired by Tom Latham (R-IA), Amtrak President Joseph Boardman, answering a question from Ranking Member John Olver (MA), said Amtrak could operate during a federal government shutdown lasting one month. He said he did not have a plan for month two.

 

[Ryan]

I know that the prevailing wisdom is that it isn't going to last that long (and it's true that Amtrak will be the least of our worries if it does).

Hopefully they won't be dumb enough to pull this kind of a stunt:

http://blogs.federaltimes.com/federal-times-blog/2011/04/07/moran-congress-may-take-2-week-easter-break-during-shutdown

We would hope and expect that if there is a shutdown that it will only last through the weekend. We of course will be on the job throughout the weekend trying to reach a resolution. An extension might last until the middle of next week. But Congress has decided that it’s going to take an Easter break, the district work period they call it. But for two weeks, Congress won’t be in session. So if there isn’t any resolution, the furlough could well extend for three or four weeks.

Jim Moraon, D-VA

 

[GlobalistPotato]

Anyway, the relevance to Amtrak is to illustrate how stupid "Get rid of Amtrak, the Park Service, earmarks, and foreign aid, and the budget will be balanced." NOT EVEN CLOSE, NOT EVEN A START.

Ron Paul made the point that even if the federal government cut EVERYTHING, we'd still be bankrupt, because of all the bailouts and the printing of money.

And the secret bailouts.

Really, Amtrak is relatively one of the best behaved government funded entities, especially compared to the Federal Reserve and the CIA.

I think the Federal Government has a reason to keep Amtrak around; as a morale booster, similar to "bread and circuses".

The people who want to get rid of Amtrak and those other things you mentioned want to do it out of political ideology, not "common sense" or fiscal conservativetism.