F
frank
Guest
If you read the daily tribune or e-zine, or follow c-span, you'd probably believe, and maybe rightfully so, that Amtrak is about to expire. Extinction. Extinction happens when a system is annihilated, either by nature or by man-made circumstances. George Bush, in my mind the least forward thinking president in modern times, is attempting to annihilate Amtrak. And the sad fact about extinction is that it is final. Species can't be brought back from extinction. It is doubtful that Amtrak could be brought back either. It's a sad fact.
However, leaving Mr. Bush's and Mr. Mineta's arguments about a national rail service's ability to turn a profit far behind, as any person of meager intellect knows that this is an oxymoron, let's examine what lies ahead for Amtrak, or rather, for any national rail service with the upcoming, undeniable tribulations.
Times are changing rapidly. The availability of fossil fuels is dwindling. It's a bell curve, and we're either at the peak, or sliding down the backside now, depending on who you study. This is not an energy crisis. It's a change in the way civilization is ordered. But we all know down deep that we can't continue building and devouring Mother Earth as we have since the start of the industrial revolution. Down deep it must register that however painful this situation is, these things are or should be expected, or that it's simply natures way of balancing. As the Hopi Indians would say...."koyaanisqatsi", i.e. "a way of life that suggest a new way of living".....or simply, "life out of balance". I can't in my wildest dreams imagine anyone arguing otherwise.
Geophysicists concur that we are at or very near peak production of petroleum. That means that it's all downhill from here. Prices will continue to rise, albeit with some price volatility along the way, until we no longer have oil to fund our out of balance lifestyles. According to a state department white paper, the first expected signs are now showing up, the doubling of crude prices in just 2 years. The airlines are now showing their first signs of the extreme peril lying ahead. Just this week, Air France-KLM, the world's largest airline group, announced a $7.6 million dollar loss for January-March, even though revenues were up 5.4%. Hey folks, this isn't rocket science...hey!... for once it is rocket science! This loss is due to fuel costs. Are fuel costs going to decline? Maybe slightly, very short term, as there has been a small decline in crude prices over the last week or so.
But....and it's a big but, are they going to decline to levels when airlines were profitable? To levels half of what they are now? Doubtful. Other than a new wing design expected to streamline performance, there aren't any alternative technologies for jet engines like there are for cars and trucks such as hybrid or hydrogen. When you consider a flight from London to Bombay will typically burn 185,000 pounds of jet fuel, it's easy to see how this scenario can't be maintained in the face of perpetually climbing prices and downward supplies.
Now I'm sure you're asking....what does this have to do with railroads? Plenty. As you all know, rail travel, whether freight or passenger, is by far the most cost efficient means of transport available. I'm not interested in getting bogged down in dollars per person per mile here. I am well aware that Amtrak and other railroads are plagued by big labor and bureaucracy. I was raised with this stuff. I'm not just a railfan, my father was a former president of the Federal Railroad Administration, and I heard discourse after lecture between pass the peas and potatoes about labor and management and profitabilties. For a youngster, it was an education and indigestion all in one on many nights.
You would expect that since America is the largest producer of oil in the world, just ahead of Saudi Arabia, we would be faring well in this global dilemma. But we are also by far the largest consumer of oil, not by slim margins, but by Herculean proportions. Check this out....the United States produces 11.7% of the world's oil, and yet we consume 25.3% of the world's oil. Deficit? I reckon.
Compare this to other nations:
Saudi Arabia....produces 11.3%....consumes....1.9% OK, they're a kingdom, it doesn't count.
Russia....produces 10%....consumes....3.3%. Ouch.
Mexico, our labor force to the south, produces 4.7%....consumes....2.5%. Ouch again.
Iran....produces 4.6%....consumes 1.7%.
Americans are accustomed to having Lincoln Navigators and Cadillac Escalades to run the kids to soccer, or to go to the drug store for q-tips. Our dependence on oil reminds me of a heroin addict. He knows that what he's about to shoot will be short lived, even to the point that he's already starting to wonder where his next fix is going to come from. It's becoming painfully obvious of late that this situation, just like the difficulties the airlines are experiencing, is starting to smite the big 3, as SUV sales are plummeting nationwide. For the first time in history, Ford and GM's stock hit junk bond status, mostly because of SUV sales being down due to higher fuel prices. The value of used SUV's is dropping like a sack of bricks, also due to these factors.
So, now to the reincarnation of the guilded age of America's railroads.......how I wish. The truth is, the golden age of rails was a thing of beauty unsurpassed in America's short history. Being a lover of fine architecture, I place the streamliners pulling away from magnificent halls such as Union Station in D.C., with it's white granite and classic lines, as one of the prettiest sights in all of American history, right up there with the black and white photo of a native American in war paint. A national treasure.
Speaking of North American history, few would argue the impact that the rails have had on this nation's past. Having said that, I believe that America's rails are poised to once again establish themselves as a much needed, if not totally indispensable means of transportation. It probably won't be of the lavish, no expense spared gleaming art deco approach of Budd or Pullman. It will be the ability to move thousands of people hundreds or thousands of miles relatively efficiently all around this nation.
When oil availability starts it's descent, which again is only a matter of time, the airlines will be the first to go. And as I said earlier, they will go....poof! Like the dinosaurs. Exctinction. Next will be light trucks and automobiles, at least as we know them now. Right now, 67% of personal automobile travel and 50% of airline travel is discretionary. This will dry up quickly. As the aforementioned state department white paper states, unless we have a full decade to adapt our technologies before the peak in oil production hits, there will not be enough time to alter the grave consequences. You just can't get everyone to go out and by a hybrid vehicle all at once, and at present, there's no retrofit technology available. But even if you did, with gasoline prices continuing to climb over the years, who could afford to drive from NY. to La in a car that's even 50% more efficient? BTW, the railroads use only 0.3 million barrels per day, an almost inconsequential amount when compared to other modes of transportation.
I don't want to get into a doomsday scenario here, this is not the point of this essay. If you're worried about that, plant some radishes and carrots and by a 9mm. I don't want to go there. My aim is to point to the absolute and undeniable need for a national rail system. One that doesn't just try and meagerly hold on to what it has now, but one that flourishes and even extends it's reach to new routes, and sooner than later. I personally believe that this is not only common sense, but a matter of national security.
Don't be swayed by the short-sightedness of America's incumbent and his big energy bedfellows. Opening up the Arctic wilderness to drilling will have no effect on this scenario, save for the damage to the environment. It's too little too late. Building new refineries now on the soon to be abandoned military bases will only postpone the heroin fix for the short term. By several accounts, Saudi Arabia has already severely damaged their oil fields by pumping more than was feasible, thereby hastening this scenario. What can be done? I thought you'd never ask. Contact your representatives from mayors on up and explain the need for a long term approach to rail in America. Plant radishes. Start a grass roots movement to turn trails to rails. Grin when you hear the long, long, short, long of an engine. Plant carrots, hell, I don't know. Do what you can. It's in everyone's best interest.
Thanks for your time,
Frank
However, leaving Mr. Bush's and Mr. Mineta's arguments about a national rail service's ability to turn a profit far behind, as any person of meager intellect knows that this is an oxymoron, let's examine what lies ahead for Amtrak, or rather, for any national rail service with the upcoming, undeniable tribulations.
Times are changing rapidly. The availability of fossil fuels is dwindling. It's a bell curve, and we're either at the peak, or sliding down the backside now, depending on who you study. This is not an energy crisis. It's a change in the way civilization is ordered. But we all know down deep that we can't continue building and devouring Mother Earth as we have since the start of the industrial revolution. Down deep it must register that however painful this situation is, these things are or should be expected, or that it's simply natures way of balancing. As the Hopi Indians would say...."koyaanisqatsi", i.e. "a way of life that suggest a new way of living".....or simply, "life out of balance". I can't in my wildest dreams imagine anyone arguing otherwise.
Geophysicists concur that we are at or very near peak production of petroleum. That means that it's all downhill from here. Prices will continue to rise, albeit with some price volatility along the way, until we no longer have oil to fund our out of balance lifestyles. According to a state department white paper, the first expected signs are now showing up, the doubling of crude prices in just 2 years. The airlines are now showing their first signs of the extreme peril lying ahead. Just this week, Air France-KLM, the world's largest airline group, announced a $7.6 million dollar loss for January-March, even though revenues were up 5.4%. Hey folks, this isn't rocket science...hey!... for once it is rocket science! This loss is due to fuel costs. Are fuel costs going to decline? Maybe slightly, very short term, as there has been a small decline in crude prices over the last week or so.
But....and it's a big but, are they going to decline to levels when airlines were profitable? To levels half of what they are now? Doubtful. Other than a new wing design expected to streamline performance, there aren't any alternative technologies for jet engines like there are for cars and trucks such as hybrid or hydrogen. When you consider a flight from London to Bombay will typically burn 185,000 pounds of jet fuel, it's easy to see how this scenario can't be maintained in the face of perpetually climbing prices and downward supplies.
Now I'm sure you're asking....what does this have to do with railroads? Plenty. As you all know, rail travel, whether freight or passenger, is by far the most cost efficient means of transport available. I'm not interested in getting bogged down in dollars per person per mile here. I am well aware that Amtrak and other railroads are plagued by big labor and bureaucracy. I was raised with this stuff. I'm not just a railfan, my father was a former president of the Federal Railroad Administration, and I heard discourse after lecture between pass the peas and potatoes about labor and management and profitabilties. For a youngster, it was an education and indigestion all in one on many nights.
You would expect that since America is the largest producer of oil in the world, just ahead of Saudi Arabia, we would be faring well in this global dilemma. But we are also by far the largest consumer of oil, not by slim margins, but by Herculean proportions. Check this out....the United States produces 11.7% of the world's oil, and yet we consume 25.3% of the world's oil. Deficit? I reckon.
Compare this to other nations:
Saudi Arabia....produces 11.3%....consumes....1.9% OK, they're a kingdom, it doesn't count.
Russia....produces 10%....consumes....3.3%. Ouch.
Mexico, our labor force to the south, produces 4.7%....consumes....2.5%. Ouch again.
Iran....produces 4.6%....consumes 1.7%.
Americans are accustomed to having Lincoln Navigators and Cadillac Escalades to run the kids to soccer, or to go to the drug store for q-tips. Our dependence on oil reminds me of a heroin addict. He knows that what he's about to shoot will be short lived, even to the point that he's already starting to wonder where his next fix is going to come from. It's becoming painfully obvious of late that this situation, just like the difficulties the airlines are experiencing, is starting to smite the big 3, as SUV sales are plummeting nationwide. For the first time in history, Ford and GM's stock hit junk bond status, mostly because of SUV sales being down due to higher fuel prices. The value of used SUV's is dropping like a sack of bricks, also due to these factors.
So, now to the reincarnation of the guilded age of America's railroads.......how I wish. The truth is, the golden age of rails was a thing of beauty unsurpassed in America's short history. Being a lover of fine architecture, I place the streamliners pulling away from magnificent halls such as Union Station in D.C., with it's white granite and classic lines, as one of the prettiest sights in all of American history, right up there with the black and white photo of a native American in war paint. A national treasure.
Speaking of North American history, few would argue the impact that the rails have had on this nation's past. Having said that, I believe that America's rails are poised to once again establish themselves as a much needed, if not totally indispensable means of transportation. It probably won't be of the lavish, no expense spared gleaming art deco approach of Budd or Pullman. It will be the ability to move thousands of people hundreds or thousands of miles relatively efficiently all around this nation.
When oil availability starts it's descent, which again is only a matter of time, the airlines will be the first to go. And as I said earlier, they will go....poof! Like the dinosaurs. Exctinction. Next will be light trucks and automobiles, at least as we know them now. Right now, 67% of personal automobile travel and 50% of airline travel is discretionary. This will dry up quickly. As the aforementioned state department white paper states, unless we have a full decade to adapt our technologies before the peak in oil production hits, there will not be enough time to alter the grave consequences. You just can't get everyone to go out and by a hybrid vehicle all at once, and at present, there's no retrofit technology available. But even if you did, with gasoline prices continuing to climb over the years, who could afford to drive from NY. to La in a car that's even 50% more efficient? BTW, the railroads use only 0.3 million barrels per day, an almost inconsequential amount when compared to other modes of transportation.
I don't want to get into a doomsday scenario here, this is not the point of this essay. If you're worried about that, plant some radishes and carrots and by a 9mm. I don't want to go there. My aim is to point to the absolute and undeniable need for a national rail system. One that doesn't just try and meagerly hold on to what it has now, but one that flourishes and even extends it's reach to new routes, and sooner than later. I personally believe that this is not only common sense, but a matter of national security.
Don't be swayed by the short-sightedness of America's incumbent and his big energy bedfellows. Opening up the Arctic wilderness to drilling will have no effect on this scenario, save for the damage to the environment. It's too little too late. Building new refineries now on the soon to be abandoned military bases will only postpone the heroin fix for the short term. By several accounts, Saudi Arabia has already severely damaged their oil fields by pumping more than was feasible, thereby hastening this scenario. What can be done? I thought you'd never ask. Contact your representatives from mayors on up and explain the need for a long term approach to rail in America. Plant radishes. Start a grass roots movement to turn trails to rails. Grin when you hear the long, long, short, long of an engine. Plant carrots, hell, I don't know. Do what you can. It's in everyone's best interest.
Thanks for your time,
Frank
