I received the email offering up to 50% bonus for purchase of points through next Tuesday. I'm figuring this is a pretty good deal for long distance sleeper travel only. If I purchased 15000 points for $565.50 and received the 50% bonus I'd get 22500 points. I add in the 5% rebate from AGR from redeeming my 22500 points which is 1125. I also would get a purchase on my cc for $565.50 which gets 1.5% rebate for $8.50. This would be equivalent to an additional 360 points figured at .0236/pt which I include in the interest of completion even though I don't get the actual points, giving a grand total of 23985 eventual points for my outlay of $565.50. That is a cost of $.0236/point. Long distance sleeper redemption ratio is regularly .0289/point. That's a discount of .0053/point or 18.34% on long distance sleeper travel. Purchasing additional points up to 30K appears to be at the same price ratio so there's no additional advantage except that you would have more of the cheaper points. Does anyone see any self-deception here? Or is it more realistic to look at it from the bottom number? That is, for an outlay of .0236 I get value of .0289 for an uptick of 22.5%?

Your Math is good but the actual Redemption depends on the Buckets on the trip(s) you take with the purchased points. Not to sound like a Lawyer, but it depends! Some trips are a better deal paying Cash @ Low Bucket, others may be a wash and some trips ( especially under AGR2.0 East to the Central Zone) are better Point deals than they were under AGR 1.0!!( but AGR 1.0 allowed 2 to travel for the same price as One person on AGR2.0, since you pay Rail Fare for each person now and the Room Charge)

The low bucket math shouldn't matter in terms of value, since the points cost should be similarly lower. The only times where the math wouldn't work is when the value per point would drop below .0236/point (or whatever the cost per point is.) That may happen during holidays when they sometimes double points redemption costs on certain days, or if they change the points value in the future. But whether a trip is at low bucket or not would not directly influence the calculus of whether points or cash is better.

The 50% offer can save you a bit of money so I would say that it is a good deal BUT remember if you buy points you are paying for your ticket in advance maybe a year in advance. Its a tough call.