Amtrak February 2013 Monthly Performance Report
NEC
Acela: Ridership was off slightly for February (most blame can be found in the missing day vs. 2012), but I'm not inclined to fret over the loss of 1300 riders in nearly 260,000 here. What stands out is the revenue situation all the same: Revenue was up 7.9% amid a slight dip in ridership, resulting in an increase in PPR of nearly 8.5% ($154.77 vs. $142.69 in February of last year).
--On profitability, YTD the Acela shows a pre-OPEB contribution of $100.4m (post-OPEB is $96.9m). In January, these numbers were $82.1m (+$18.3m) and $79.3m (+$17.6m).
Regional: I honestly don't know how this happened, but fares jumped nearly 12% year over year (PPR was $69.00 vs. $61.73 last February) while ridership was off slightly. Again, I'm not about to fret...it was a shorter month than FY12 had, and even if it were a "real" dip, I'd take it for this much more cash coming in.
--On profitability, YTD the Regionals show a pre-OPEB contribution of $54.1m (post-OPEB is $49.8m). In January, these were $44.1m (+$10.0m) and $41.5m (+$8.3m).
Overall Profitability: I feel compelled to state at the start that about $16m in expenses were added between the Feb-12 MPR and the Feb-13 MPR for FY12 through February. No clue where those numbers came from. With that sour note out of the way, profitability continues to be strong here. In February alone, the NEC added about $7m in additional ticket revenue.
-Interesting, the net contribution in February was more than the net contribution in January.
-The trend seems on course for the Regionals to generate at least $100m pre-OPEB for the year, and for the Acelas to generate somewhere north of $200m at a bare minimum. Honestly, the margins should be better as we get out of winter, and I'd expect them to come in a good bit above these lowball targets.
Short Corridors
Overall, this was a real hit-or-miss category, and there wasn't a good pattern to seek out. There were a few losers:
-The Downeaster, due to weather (per the report notes, the train would have broken even in terms of ridership but for the snowstorm in spite of losing a day).
-The Hiawatha, which more or less broke even after accounting for the lost day
-The Heartland Flyer
-The Adirondack (weather again, I suspect)
-The Cascades (mudslides and buses, oh my!)
-The Capitol Corridor (which has been having chronic issues)
There's also the technical matter of the Newport News/Norfolk route. Ridership there was up about 5% between the two routes (42,308 vs. 40,204 last year); between the lost day and (presumably) the snowstorm impact, it's not great...but it's not awful.
-And of course, I've got a word or two for the budgeting folks...they forecast ridership growth month-over-month on the Norfolk train in February vs. January (9998 vs. 8827). Considering that February is routinely the worst month of the year for ridership (both due to its off-season nature and due to being, well, short), how they predicted that ridership would spike from 142/train to 178/train is truly beyond me. The route is still ahead of budget for both riders and revenue, so I'm not worried here...but I'm wondering what the ridership is going to look like going into March and April.
A bunch of the other trains hovered around break-even (either up slightly or down slightly). In this category, we find the Empire and Maple Leaf services, the Vermonter, the Wolverine, the Lynchburger, the Mules, the Pennsylvanian, the Carolinain, the Piedmont, etc.
Of note, the Mules are wearing about a 10% fare hike well (PPR of $28.14 vs. $25.58 last year), and the Pennsylvanian is doing the same with a bit over a 5% hike ($42.91 vs. $40.74).
And now for the big winners:
-The Pacific Surfliner. Though ridership is off about 5% vs. FY11, revenue is up 14.2% (translating into around a 20% fare hike) and the rebound vs. 2012 continues. Ridership is up almost 5% vs. last year, and up about 8-9% once you account for the lost day. February 2012 was just an awful month here.
-The Ethan Allen
-The Illini/Saluki
[Corridors done...I'll deal with the LD stuff later]
Abbreviations:
-PPR: Per-passenger revenue. The average price of a ticket sold on a given line.
-OPEB: Other Post-Employment Benefits
NEC
Acela: Ridership was off slightly for February (most blame can be found in the missing day vs. 2012), but I'm not inclined to fret over the loss of 1300 riders in nearly 260,000 here. What stands out is the revenue situation all the same: Revenue was up 7.9% amid a slight dip in ridership, resulting in an increase in PPR of nearly 8.5% ($154.77 vs. $142.69 in February of last year).
--On profitability, YTD the Acela shows a pre-OPEB contribution of $100.4m (post-OPEB is $96.9m). In January, these numbers were $82.1m (+$18.3m) and $79.3m (+$17.6m).
Regional: I honestly don't know how this happened, but fares jumped nearly 12% year over year (PPR was $69.00 vs. $61.73 last February) while ridership was off slightly. Again, I'm not about to fret...it was a shorter month than FY12 had, and even if it were a "real" dip, I'd take it for this much more cash coming in.
--On profitability, YTD the Regionals show a pre-OPEB contribution of $54.1m (post-OPEB is $49.8m). In January, these were $44.1m (+$10.0m) and $41.5m (+$8.3m).
Overall Profitability: I feel compelled to state at the start that about $16m in expenses were added between the Feb-12 MPR and the Feb-13 MPR for FY12 through February. No clue where those numbers came from. With that sour note out of the way, profitability continues to be strong here. In February alone, the NEC added about $7m in additional ticket revenue.
-Interesting, the net contribution in February was more than the net contribution in January.
-The trend seems on course for the Regionals to generate at least $100m pre-OPEB for the year, and for the Acelas to generate somewhere north of $200m at a bare minimum. Honestly, the margins should be better as we get out of winter, and I'd expect them to come in a good bit above these lowball targets.
Short Corridors
Overall, this was a real hit-or-miss category, and there wasn't a good pattern to seek out. There were a few losers:
-The Downeaster, due to weather (per the report notes, the train would have broken even in terms of ridership but for the snowstorm in spite of losing a day).
-The Hiawatha, which more or less broke even after accounting for the lost day
-The Heartland Flyer
-The Adirondack (weather again, I suspect)
-The Cascades (mudslides and buses, oh my!)
-The Capitol Corridor (which has been having chronic issues)
There's also the technical matter of the Newport News/Norfolk route. Ridership there was up about 5% between the two routes (42,308 vs. 40,204 last year); between the lost day and (presumably) the snowstorm impact, it's not great...but it's not awful.
-And of course, I've got a word or two for the budgeting folks...they forecast ridership growth month-over-month on the Norfolk train in February vs. January (9998 vs. 8827). Considering that February is routinely the worst month of the year for ridership (both due to its off-season nature and due to being, well, short), how they predicted that ridership would spike from 142/train to 178/train is truly beyond me. The route is still ahead of budget for both riders and revenue, so I'm not worried here...but I'm wondering what the ridership is going to look like going into March and April.
A bunch of the other trains hovered around break-even (either up slightly or down slightly). In this category, we find the Empire and Maple Leaf services, the Vermonter, the Wolverine, the Lynchburger, the Mules, the Pennsylvanian, the Carolinain, the Piedmont, etc.
Of note, the Mules are wearing about a 10% fare hike well (PPR of $28.14 vs. $25.58 last year), and the Pennsylvanian is doing the same with a bit over a 5% hike ($42.91 vs. $40.74).
And now for the big winners:
-The Pacific Surfliner. Though ridership is off about 5% vs. FY11, revenue is up 14.2% (translating into around a 20% fare hike) and the rebound vs. 2012 continues. Ridership is up almost 5% vs. last year, and up about 8-9% once you account for the lost day. February 2012 was just an awful month here.
-The Ethan Allen
-The Illini/Saluki
[Corridors done...I'll deal with the LD stuff later]
Abbreviations:
-PPR: Per-passenger revenue. The average price of a ticket sold on a given line.
-OPEB: Other Post-Employment Benefits
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