How viable would an Amtrak line be from Chicago - Florida?

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I think the mistake right there is the fact that the Louisville to Florida AutoTrain started in Louisville and not Chicago! Chicago is probably the biggest chunk of the Midwest snowbird market (followed by Michigan & Ohio most likely), so an AutoTrain really oughtta start in the hub which also happens to be the most populous city in the Midwest.
According to that theory the Virginia - Florida Auto Train should have failed too. But it did not. ;)
Lorton, VA is situated in the Washington D.C. Metro area which automatically places it in one of the more populated metro areas in the USA. Plus it's not too difficult to reach from other portions of the NEC either. Louisville, KY on the other hand is way more isolated and quite a distance from Chicago. If they ever attempt an Auto Train west of the NEC in the future, they should have the train in originate in Chicago. If you don't want to deal with downtown parking issues, then maybe set something up in Dyer, Indiana (Cardinal stop) so the parking situation is south of town like Lorton is south of D.C.
Louisville isn't dramatically farther from Chicago than Lorton is from New York. Service beginning at Louisville can draw from Chicago-Milwaukee-Minneapolis/St. Paul as well as St. Louis, Detroit, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Indianapolis, etc. Service beginning near Chicago pretty much cuts off St. Louis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Indianapolis, etc.
 
I think the mistake right there is the fact that the Louisville to Florida AutoTrain started in Louisville and not Chicago! Chicago is probably the biggest chunk of the Midwest snowbird market (followed by Michigan & Ohio most likely), so an AutoTrain really oughtta start in the hub which also happens to be the most populous city in the Midwest.
According to that theory the Virginia - Florida Auto Train should have failed too. But it did not. ;)
Lorton, VA is situated in the Washington D.C. Metro area which automatically places it in one of the more populated metro areas in the USA. Plus it's not too difficult to reach from other portions of the NEC either. Louisville, KY on the other hand is way more isolated and quite a distance from Chicago. If they ever attempt an Auto Train west of the NEC in the future, they should have the train in originate in Chicago. If you don't want to deal with downtown parking issues, then maybe set something up in Dyer, Indiana (Cardinal stop) so the parking situation is south of town like Lorton is south of D.C.
Louisville isn't dramatically farther from Chicago than Lorton is from New York. Service beginning at Louisville can draw from Chicago-Milwaukee-Minneapolis/St. Paul as well as St. Louis, Detroit, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Indianapolis, etc. Service beginning near Chicago pretty much cuts off St. Louis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Indianapolis, etc.
This has been discussed many times, but I think it's worth revisiting.

The Auto Train works because everything is in the right order. The trip length is perfet - 4:00 AM to 8:00 PM, or a schedule of 16 hours, allows for many things: time for unloading, maintenance, switching and loading. There's enough time to allow for unforeseen delays without having to regularly truncate or cancel trains. It still happens, but only a couple times per year under extraordinary circumstances. The end points are perfect. Ryan already mentioned how it's silly to backtrack a couple hundred miles to get on the train that goes past your house agian. Louisville and Lorton are the small end of the funnel. If you're travelling from Chicago by car, you'd drive past the terminal anyway. Are you going to NOT take the Auto Train because you have to drive too far to get to it? That doesn't make any sense. But now, you've captured folks from a broader range of markets to load on. Likewise, in the South, Sanford allows folks to go to Orlando, Tampa, Miami and beyond without "backtracking".

So why didn't the Louisville section work? Lots of reasons. But the primary reason is that there just wasn't enough demand.
 
For the Lorton - Sanford Auto Train it is 4pm to 9:30am, but your point overall is well taken.

The huge difference between the Lorton Service vs. the Louisville service were:

1. Time taken for the trip 855 miles covered in 15.5 hours back then, 17.5 hours now vs. around 1000 miles in almost 24 hours. This immediately added two additional consists and associated staffing to do a daily service on the Louisville route for relatively small additional revenue over and beyond what the Lorton Service got.

2. Awkward train time when operated with the Floridian. 8am-ish departure from Louisville meant you had to get your car there latest by 6am possibly, which meant starting from Chicago after dinner and driving overnight or adding hotel room around Louisville increasing cost of the trip. Similarly with arrival into Louisville after 9pm.

Ultimately it is double the operating cost (labor being a major component) for much less than double the revenue when compared to the Lorton Service is what made it unsustainable. Of course two derailments causing damage to equipment and perpetual tardiness did not help at all either. I believe it is very hard to work around this reality of cost which makes the Louisville service non-viable. Indeed if someone tried an Auto Train that ran somehow from New York to Miami, it would be non-viable too.

BTW, here is a relevant earlier thread touching on this subject: http://discuss.amtraktrains.com/index.php?/topic/35207-the-floridian-and-the-autotrain/
 
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989 miles between Louisville (the Auto-Train terminal) and Sanford using the Floridian route. After the joint Amtrak/Auto-Train operation ended, the Floridian timetable allowed 23 hours for that part of the run. The schedule reflected speed restrictions on the SDP40F; in 1979 when the Floridian was powered by an F40/E8 combo, the schedule could have been tightened by 1-2 hours. For comparison, in 1954 the South Wind took 20 hours.

But Jis is correct that 24 hours was about right for the Auto-Train. Remember, Lorton-Sanford is relatively flat and straight. As long as there is no dispatcher interference, 52/53 can run at 70 mph (intermodal speed limit) for hours on end. Even the fuel stop in Florence is convenient. But Louisville-Thomasville, Ga was real-world railroading with grades and curves.
 
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I would say that 17.5 hours is pushing the envelope. That allows only 6.5 hours to unload, clean and service, turn, and reload the train. That is pushing it. If you were to run a service that took any longer, you would have to have either 3 train sets or 4. The only way you could get away with 3 would be if the depature times could be staggared enough to be sure that you could turn the equipment on one end.

Much of the ex ACL main used by the current Auto Train was at one time a 90 mph railroad. That is true for none of the route used by the former Midwest Auto Train or any of the alternatives proposed. For the most part that has never been more than a 70 mph railroad, and a lot of that with curves requiring lower speeds. The southern portions where the tracks are straighter were for the most part slower, a lot unsignaled and 59 mph or less. Even some of the signaled portions were limited to less than 70 mph due to track conditions.

By the way, if the detour at Bainbridge GA to Tallahassee was done, the portion east of Tallahassee is signaled and was allowed 79 mph or the sunset East, but again, that was not continuous but had many lower speed segments.
 
Of course within Chicago to Florida might be Chicago to Atlanta. At one time a very fine train known as the Georgian ran in addition to Florida. George Harris has already mentioned itt.

Northbound it left Atlanta at 6 pm EST then Chicago next morning at 8.25 am CST Stops Chattanooga,Nashville Evansville,split to St Louis..

Southbound it left Chicago 4 pm CST arrive Atlanta 8,35 an EST.

It had three coaches, a diner, a tavern lounge and three sleepers from Chicago to Atlanta. It also had a through coach and sleeper from St Lous to Atlanta. And a diner from StLouis to Evansville and a sleeper which went northbound only from Nashville to Chicago

It was widely advertised as a business person's train because of it's overnight schedule. Today it would provide a much needed connection between the southeast and west coast trains.
 
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