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lordsigma

Hurricane Michael

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Looking like yet another storm may be moving in to cause disruptions depending on storm track. I have an Auto Train round trip coming up which could be in jeopardy - first leg Thursday the 11th, second leg Friday the 19th....I wonder what my chances are of the train running - current track looks like there is a good possibility of widespread cancellations due to heavy rains.

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I'm gonna have to watch it carefully, as it could turn a little more to the right and put me right into it As of now, I'm just barely out out of the cone. One tick to the right and I'd be right in it.

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Current prognostication is that it will most likely be a Category 2 Hurricane by the time it makes landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle and may remain a hurricane into Georgia.

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Now projections have been upped to possibly a Cat 3 at landfall. It will remain a Tropical Storm all across land - Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina and possibly Virginia before it exists to the Atlantic Ocean as a Tropical Storm. It will be a very fast mover, so total rainfalls won;t be anything like what came from Florence.

 

If this forecast holds it is very likely that the Atlantic Coast service will be affected leading upto Thursday and all day Thursday followed by the time needed to clean up the aftermath.

 

It is a very spread out system. We are already starting to see extreme outer band of clouds over us in Central Florida. We will probably get some amount of Tropical Force wind out of this. Jacksonville will get it worse than us, no matter what happens.

Edited by jis

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Now projections have been upped to possibly a Cat 3 at landfall. It will remain a Tropical Storm all across land - Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina and possibly Virginia before it exists to the Atlantic Ocean as a Tropical Storm. It will be a very fast mover, so total rainfalls won;t be anything like what came from Florence.

 

If this forecast holds it is very likely that the Atlantic Coast service will be affected leading upto Thursday and all day Thursday followed by the time needed to clean up the aftermath.

I think it's fair to say I should assume cancellation on Thursday and prepare alternative travel plans. Will probably have to drive down and then hopefully they will be operating again by the time I head home so I don't have to drive both ways.

Edited by lordsigma

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:hi: Better SAFE,than SORRY!!!

Edited by Rail Freak

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Impact now projected to be Wednesday for Florida and Georgia and Thursday for Carolinas and north. As of the 11am (108/18) Advisory 8 from NHC landfall will be at 120mph or higher somewhere in the Florida Panhandle late morning or early afternoon Wednesday. It is coming in as a broadly spread out storm with Tropical Force winds stretching as far out as 175-180 miles from its center.

Edited by jis

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It has been cloudy and a bit windy all morning in Orlando. We just started getting rain bands.

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Impact now projected to be Wednesday for Florida and Georgia and Thursday for Carolinas and north. As of the 11am (108/18) Advisory 8 from NHC landfall will be at 120mph or higher somewhere in the Florida Panhandle late morning or early afternoon Wednesday. It is coming in as a broadly spread out storm with Tropical Force winds stretching as far out as 175-180 miles from its center.

 

I'm not buying on Michael. I think it'll peak at 3 or 4 in the Gulf, but weaken as it turns north-northeast Tuesday into Wednesday (not that the NHC will actually show weakening while approaching the coast, mind you). Go look up Hurricane Opal 1995 for an analog.

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Weakening is certainly a possibility, but it appears to be unlikely that it will weaken enough to be an event of no consequence at landfall. So one can spend their time quibbling over whether it is a 1 2 or 3, which of course I won't. There will still be consequential wind and water damage at landfall and beyond.

 

As I was mentioning on an FB discussion, I will be incredibly gratified if CSX does not shut its line down by Wednesday afternoon.

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Oh I imagine that they will, out of (say it with me kids) an "Abundance of Caution", but for AMTK actual impacts to the infrastructure should be fairly minimal - the storm should be down to or below Tropical Storm strength long before reaching the east coast, and with its forward speed rainfall impact should be limited and of short duration over there.

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I switched my auto train to Wednesday instead of Thursday - still a chance of cancellation but seems like I might have a better chance especially if the storm slows down - plus then I’ll know earlier and will have more time to drive down before the real nasty stuff moves in.

Edited by lordsigma

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Several factors for any hurricane which has profound effects.

1. Max wind velocity. = severe damage to structures

2. Extent of diameter of tropical force winds = damage to structures

3.. Forward speed = How long wind and how much rain at any spot = Amount of flooding

4. Amount of moisture in total hurricane = Flooding potential

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It appears that the Silver Star (train 92) between MIA and NYP is "sold out" on Wednesday and Thursday. I have not found a service alert however.

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Looks like as of Tuesday morning the plan is to suspend the Star north of JAX and continue to run the Meteor and the Auto Train.

 

JAX area was just put under a Tornado warning a little while back! Right front quadrant spreads far I suppose.

Edited by jis

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Crossing my fingers that will hold and Auto Train will run tomorrow night.

 

If they're canceling the Star due to its further west run, you'd think they'll also cancel Crescent, Piedmont, and Carolinian.

Edited by lordsigma

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92 will operate MIA-JAX only on Wednesday, Oct 10. Train 91 is canceled NYP-JAX on Oct 10. It will operate JAX-MIA on Thursday, Oct 11.

 

89 is canceled WAS-SAV on Wednesday, Oct 10 and 90 is canceled SAV-WAS on Thursday, Oct 11.

 

52/53 and 97/98 are scheduled to operate normally.

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Here is today's service alert:

 

 

 

Scheduled Service Modified in Advance of Hurricane Michael Tuesday, October 09, 2018 4:50PM ET

Trains service in Florida impacted

Due to predicted severe weather from Hurricane Michael, Amtrak is modifying service to Florida. For the safety of our customers and employees, the following train schedules will be adjusted:

The Silver Star (New York – Miami) 91 & 92 will operate from Miami to Jacksonville, Fla, beginning on Wednesday, Oct. 10. No alternate transportation will be provided between Jacksonville, Fla., to New York.

The Palmetto (New York to Savannah, Ga.) 89 & 90 will operate between New York and Washington, D.C., beginning on Thursday, Oct. 11. No alternate transportation will be provided between Washington, D.C., to Savannah, Ga.

Customers with reservations on trains that are being modified will typically be accommodated on trains with similar departure times or another day. Amtrak will gladly waive additional charges for customers looking to change their reservation during the modified schedule by calling our reservation center at 800-USA-RAIL. Anyone planning to travel should check their train status on Amtrak.com or our smartphone apps prior to departing, allow extra time to get to the station and be extremely careful in stations and on platforms.

Amtrak regrets any inconvenience. This information is correct as of the above time and date. Information is subject to change as conditions warrant.

Anyone can subscribe to automated email or text message notifications if Amtrak trains are behind schedule at specific stations. Notifications can be given for up to six trains and stations by either text or email and delivered when you choose - on a single day, every day, or just certain days of the week. Create a subscription at Amtrak.com/delayalerts.

Customers with travel plans can review refund information on Amtrak.com. Service Alerts, Passenger Notices and other announcements are posted at Amtrak.com/alerts.

To be notified of service disruptions on the Northeast Corridor (including Acela Express, Northeast Regional and other corridor services), follow @AmtrakNEC on Twitter.

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From CSX

 

 

CSX Taking Precautions Ahead of Hurricane Michael

CSX continues to take measures to protect employees, rail traffic and infrastructure as Hurricane Michael approaches the U.S. mainland as a major hurricane. The storm is projected to make landfall Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane, bringing the potential of storm surge along low lying areas. At this time, we do not know the extent to which the storm will impact CSX operations, but we are closely monitoring its path and intensity and taking steps to prepare for any potential effects on our network.

Please be advised that, until further notice, CSX is curtailing operations along the Florida Panhandle and into southeastern Georgia. All shipments traveling between Pensacola, Fla. and Baldwin, Fla., and between Dothan, Ala. and Valdosta, Ga. will experience delays.

We will continue to provide updates as we monitor the storm. Intermodal customers should refer to Real-Time Service Advisories for intermodal-specific operational actions, though there are no intermodal impacts at this time.

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From CSX

 

 

CSX Taking Precautions Ahead of Hurricane Michael

CSX continues to take measures to protect employees, rail traffic and infrastructure as Hurricane Michael approaches the U.S. mainland as a major hurricane. The storm is projected to make landfall Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane, bringing the potential of storm surge along low lying areas. At this time, we do not know the extent to which the storm will impact CSX operations, but we are closely monitoring its path and intensity and taking steps to prepare for any potential effects on our network.

 

Please be advised that, until further notice, CSX is curtailing operations along the Florida Panhandle and into southeastern Georgia. All shipments traveling between Pensacola, Fla. and Baldwin, Fla., and between Dothan, Ala. and Valdosta, Ga. will experience delays.

 

We will continue to provide updates as we monitor the storm. Intermodal customers should refer to Real-Time Service Advisories for intermodal-specific operational actions, though there are no intermodal impacts at this time.

 

It says that they are "curtailing operations along the Florida Panhandle and into southeastern Georgia". Does that refer to the tracks or just CSX's own trains? In other words, does that apply to Amtrak?

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So far Amtrak has not announced any further changes. I am sure we’ll know soon enough if something changes.

 

I think the biggest issue will be falling trees and flash floods in the Carolinas.

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