How viable would an Amtrak line be from Chicago - Florida?

[chakk]

Perhaps all those Illinois people you see driving to Florida are driving BECAUSE they want their own car with them in Florida. A regular train won't meet that need. Flying is faster (and maybe cheaper at times?) than driving. But if those Illinois folks are staying several months in Florida, they probably don't want to rent a car when they get there, either.

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[George Harris]

Perhaps all those Illinois people you see driving to Florida are driving BECAUSE they want their own car with them in Florida. A regular train won't meet that need. Flying is faster (and maybe cheaper at times?) than driving. But if those Illinois folks are staying several months in Florida, they probably don't want to rent a car when they get there, either.

This though process led to start up of and operation of the Louisville to Floirda AutoTrain, which was not a success, and likely led to the financial collapse of the Auto Train Corporation. Either the maket is not really there, or the train was not fast enough for most of the people that might consider using it.

The northeast to Fllorida Auto Train is most likely truly a niche market that does not exist anywhere else in the country.

 

[FormerOBS]

Back in the 1970's, long before I worked for Amtrak, I lived in Chicago. Sometimes I would go down to Roosevelt Road and watch the arriving and departing trains. One could usually identify the various trains according to consist and timetable. The arriving Floridian was the one exception. It was impossible to predict its arrival time. It would routinely miss its advertised arrival time by several hours. I see no reason to think a reincarnated version would do any better.

As mentioned, it is generally acknowledged that the Louisville - Florida Auto Train (which was handled as part of the Floridian's consist) was a significant contributor to the old Auto Train Corporation's demise.

Tom

 

[George Harris]

I would be inclined to say that choosing the South Wind route over the City of Miami route was a mistake as the City of Miami always had larger ridership, but for the serious decline in the Illinois Central track conditions during the 1970's. OTOH, Penn Central and L&N track conditions went down the tubes during the same time frame, so maybe it didn't make any difference. I think the choice was made based on the populaiton of the on-line cities (Louisville, Nashville, Birmingham, Montgomery) on the South Wind route versus those (Carbondale, Jackson TN, Birmingham, Columbus GA, Albany GA) on the City of Miami route.

Regardless, of the original every third day post WW2 Florida streamliners, the only route still complete is that of the Dixie Flagler which was the first to be discontinued.

 

[xyzzy]

The City of Miami route was doomed because it depended on Columbus-Albany-Waycross. Part of Columbus-Albany has been out of service for years, and no one seems to miss it. 80% of Albany-Waycross was abandoned in the 1980s, and no one much noticed. Also, the IC into Birmingham was partially abandoned as a consequence of shifting traffic patterns after decades of railroad consolidation. None of those lines had significant online freight customers, so they were vulnerable. In contrast CSX still has significant online business on the Floridian route.

You certainly could run a train Chattanooga-Birmingham. It's a 50 mph railroad, signaled, but trains could run faster with minor adjustments. Traffic levels are moderate. The line is relatively straight. If the train continued on to Montgomery, getting through Birmingham would be easy. But getting onto the ex-CofG toward Columbus would mean a hairpin connection at Irondale (Norris Yard) and you'd miss Birmingham.

 

[WICT106]

What about adjusting the route so that it went Birmingham - Montgomery - Tallahassee -- Jacksonville, instead of going Alabama -- Waycross GA -- Jax ( or Savannah, as the case may be ). That would get the train to Florida earlier. What are the track conditions like from Montgomery southeast to Tallahassee ? You'd have to hit Bainbridge, GA, and then some other points. What about the track speeds and conditions ?

 

[WICT106]

I will also post my reply to an earlier thread of 2008:

From "Amtrak In The Heartland," by Craig Sanders, page 90:

Quote

"The Floridian often had good loads during the winter, and the Midwest - Florida travel market is vast. Amtrak's New York - Florida route is popular, so why couldn't a Chicago - Florida route have similar success ? The answer lies in differences between the markets. Railroads offering New York - Florida service in the 1960s made money and offered high - quality service. Railroads in the Midwest - Florida market saw it as futile and eliminated or downgraded their trains. Chicago - Miami is 80 miles longer than New York - Miami, but because of route configurations the best time Amtrak might muster is 7 hours longer than the New York route. Amtrak's 1990 report observed that states along the Chicago - Florida route generate 60 percent of the travel volume of the Northeast - Florida market. Yet with a population 45 percent of New York, Chicago generated 30 percent as many airline trips to Florida. "This seems to suggest that there may be less of a Midwestern affinity, as compared to New York, to travel to Florida by common carrier," the report concluded.

 

[MattW]

I'm not so sure CSX into Atlanta from the north is as bad as everyone says. I ran across a traffic analysis from CSX conducted in 2012 that didn't even list this line as near capacity, much less as over capacity. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CFcQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Farda.bartwest.com%2FLinkClick.aspx%3Ffileticket%3DdmlBMr3QO_k%253D%26tabid%3D106%26mid%3D592&ei=8G0jVLneFsP7sATmhoGABg&usg=AFQjCNEjudPu-eWgh8CGKIjU-TV8Rx6ZjA&sig2=AYGOnsPokRcivy4vgKwEKA&bvm=bv.76247554,d.cWc This link opens a 1.7MB PDF of the analysis, I can't find the blog I originally found it on I'm afraid. The railroad that exists now is largely single-track, so any capacity constraint is simply one of money, and not because they physically can't expand the railroad anymore. The ex-Southern line through McDonough, Jackson, Macon is the same way, single-track with passing sidings, and no real progress it seems on upgrading, so I have a hard time believing the freights don't have the capacity, especially for a once-a-day train.

 

[reppin_the_847]

Perhaps all those Illinois people you see driving to Florida are driving BECAUSE they want their own car with them in Florida. A regular train won't meet that need. Flying is faster (and maybe cheaper at times?) than driving. But if those Illinois folks are staying several months in Florida, they probably don't want to rent a car when they get there, either.

This though process led to start up of and operation of the Louisville to Floirda AutoTrain, which was not a success, and likely led to the financial collapse of the Auto Train Corporation. Either the maket is not really there, or the train was not fast enough for most of the people that might consider using it.

The northeast to Fllorida Auto Train is most likely truly a niche market that does not exist anywhere else in the country.

I think the mistake right there is the fact that the Louisville to Florida AutoTrain started in Louisville and not Chicago! Chicago is probably the biggest chunk of the Midwest snowbird market (followed by Michigan & Ohio most likely), so an AutoTrain really oughtta start in the hub which also happens to be the most populous city in the Midwest.

 

[Amfleeter]

The only realistic solution to this issue I forsee possibly happening is a restored Sunset Limited. And that doesn't seem all too likely.

Though I would love to see the SL as a tourist train in the vein of the Canadian.

 

[jphjaxfl]

I was a frequent traveler on Amtrak's South Wind/FloridIan from 1971 to my last trip in October, 1978.I also traveled often on the pre Amtrak South Wind. The FloriDian was not dependable due to the bad track in Indiana. I heard many Chicagoland passengers say "never again" after arriving in Chicago on a very late Floridian. That meant they would never take Amtrak again. Today's Empire Builder is operated much like the Floridian. If a Chicago to Florida train can't be operated close to a schedule that is close to automobile travel time, it would be a waste

 

[xyzzy]

In terms of freight speeds, Montgomery-Waycross is 40 or 49 mph. Probably could be put back to 59 mph for Amtrak without spending a fortune. But the fastest part of this line -- the best track, the flattest track, and the straightest track -- is on the Waycross end. The Bainbridge Subdivision is 25 mph for 40 miles, with 10 mph in Bainbridge itself. Maybe you could run a passenger train over this subdivision at 35 mph, maybe not. But compared to running into Waycross and then 79 mph to Jacksonville, I don't think the Tallahassee reroute would accomplish much except serving Tallahassee.

 

[jis]

I think the mistake right there is the fact that the Louisville to Florida AutoTrain started in Louisville and not Chicago! Chicago is probably the biggest chunk of the Midwest snowbird market (followed by Michigan & Ohio most likely), so an AutoTrain really oughtta start in the hub which also happens to be the most populous city in the Midwest.

According to that theory the Virginia - Florida Auto Train should have failed too. But it did not.

 

[tommylicious]

viability aside...it would probably be a very popular and delightful ride! esp to Disney World. Considering that Walt was such an over the top train buff, you'd think Disney World would be interested in setting up a station.

 

[Tennessee Traveler]

Politically, and that is the key, no route through Tennessee will be approved by "voters" support unless it goes through NASHVILLE. End of discussion. Memphis and even Birmingham in Alabama have Amtrak service. I have no desire to drive to and park at either city. In Nashville, air service is excellent with significant flights from Southwest, American(includes US Airways), Delta, United/Continental, Frontier and even Air Canada. I FLY to catch Amtrak LD trains basically as a railfan for vacations.

 

[cirdan]

At present there is close to zero chance of getting either the necessary Superliners or the necessary single levels to convert a Superliner train to single level, given the shortage of Amfleets. So in short this is a complete non-starter at present.

Just thinking out loud here, but what are the chances of somebody Amtrak teaming with somebody like Iowa Pacific to run a service, even if it is just a handful of round trips a year, just to test the water so to say.

 

[Tennessee Traveler]

Just thinking out loud here, but what are the chances of somebody Amtrak teaming with somebody like Iowa Pacific to run a service, even if it is just a handful of round trips a year, just to test the water so to say.

Not much in my opinion since currently Iowa Pacific and other private cars run mainly attached to other Amtrak trains.

 

[cirdan]

Just thinking out loud here, but what are the chances of somebody Amtrak teaming with somebody like Iowa Pacific to run a service, even if it is just a handful of round trips a year, just to test the water so to say.

Not much in my opinion since currently Iowa Pacific and other private cars run mainly attached to other Amtrak trains.

sure, but at the time Z-train was proposing a Las Vegas service, Amtrak seemed quite happy to accept the invitation to work with them.

 

[WICT106]

In terms of freight speeds, Montgomery-Waycross is 40 or 49 mph. Probably could be put back to 59 mph for Amtrak without spending a fortune. But the fastest part of this line -- the best track, the flattest track, and the straightest track -- is on the Waycross end. The Bainbridge Subdivision is 25 mph for 40 miles, with 10 mph in Bainbridge itself. Maybe you could run a passenger train over this subdivision at 35 mph, maybe not. But compared to running into Waycross and then 79 mph to Jacksonville, I don't think the Tallahassee reroute would accomplish much except serving Tallahassee.

I would still be willing to have the service go Montgomery -- Dothan -- Bainbridge -- Tallahassee -- Jacksonville. The more State Capitols served by Amtrak, the more visibility Amtrak has with politicians. Montgomery and Tallahassee are both State Capitols. There would have to be track upgrades, obviously, but I would still be willing to serve Tallahassee this way. Plus, one could also claim that one is "in Florida" once one reaches Tallahassee.

 

[Ryan]

I think the mistake right there is the fact that the Louisville to Florida AutoTrain started in Louisville and not Chicago! Chicago is probably the biggest chunk of the Midwest snowbird market (followed by Michigan & Ohio most likely), so an AutoTrain really oughtta start in the hub which also happens to be the most populous city in the Midwest.

According to that theory the Virginia - Florida Auto Train should have failed too. But it did not.

Agreed. Part of the "special sauce" that makes the Auto Train work is the fact that it's at the southern end of the target population. The "put it in the big city" logic would have the terminal in NY or NNJ, and there's no way I'm driving several hours north to get on a train and head right back past my house. (ok, I would, but we all know I'm not right in the head ). Much better to have folks from PHL/NY make part of the drive by car, then finish the long part of the trip out by train.

That also makes it a single overnight, which does good things for your equipment needs. Running all the way to NY would require tons more equipment that doesn't currently exist.

 

[reppin_the_847]

I think the mistake right there is the fact that the Louisville to Florida AutoTrain started in Louisville and not Chicago! Chicago is probably the biggest chunk of the Midwest snowbird market (followed by Michigan & Ohio most likely), so an AutoTrain really oughtta start in the hub which also happens to be the most populous city in the Midwest.

According to that theory the Virginia - Florida Auto Train should have failed too. But it did not.

Lorton, VA is situated in the Washington D.C. Metro area which automatically places it in one of the more populated metro areas in the USA. Plus it's not too difficult to reach from other portions of the NEC either. Louisville, KY on the other hand is way more isolated and quite a distance from Chicago. If they ever attempt an Auto Train west of the NEC in the future, they should have the train in originate in Chicago. If you don't want to deal with downtown parking issues, then maybe set something up in Dyer, Indiana (Cardinal stop) so the parking situation is south of town like Lorton is south of D.C.

IMO way before Amtrak even thinks about setting up another Auto Train, they need to get a regular passenger train running from Chicago to Florida (the original premise of my post), and figure how how to route the darn thing lol. Once that happens, Amtrak should set up more agreements with rental car companies in FL much like you see at the Orlando, FL Amtrak station.

 

[George Harris]

I'm not so sure CSX into Atlanta from the north is as bad as everyone says. I ran across a traffic analysis from CSX conducted in 2012 that didn't even list this line as near capacity, much less as over capacity. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CFcQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Farda.bartwest.com%2FLinkClick.aspx%3Ffileticket%3DdmlBMr3QO_k%253D%26tabid%3D106%26mid%3D592&ei=8G0jVLneFsP7sATmhoGABg&usg=AFQjCNEjudPu-eWgh8CGKIjU-TV8Rx6ZjA&sig2=AYGOnsPokRcivy4vgKwEKA&bvm=bv.76247554,d.cWc This link opens a 1.7MB PDF of the analysis, I can't find the blog I originally found it on I'm afraid. The railroad that exists now is largely single-track, so any capacity constraint is simply one of money, and not because they physically can't expand the railroad anymore. The ex-Southern line through McDonough, Jackson, Macon is the same way, single-track with passing sidings, and no real progress it seems on upgrading, so I have a hard time believing the freights don't have the capacity, especially for a once-a-day train.

Capacity or not, the current line is far slower than the parallel highway. Note that the best ever run time Nashville to Chattanooga was 3 hours for 150 miles and the best ever run time for Chattanooga to Atlanta was also 3 hours for about 130 miles. Chattanooga to Atlanta has lots of low speed curves and Nashville to Chattanooga is approximately 20 miles longer than the highway distance due to Monteagle Mountain. Even the highway is something like 20 miles longer than the straight line distance between these two opints due to the terrain.

 

[west point 1]

One route analysis.

Chicago - Cincinnati is a real mess and would need major upgrades. Probably take the best profiles of several RRs to make a speedy route.

Cincinnati - Atlanta. Either the CSX (L&N) or NS (SOU) are fairly good Knoxville on CSX and Chattanooga on NS. Chattanooga station is a problem as location on old SOU station (Chattanooga Choo-Choo) calls for about 7 miles backtracking to Citioco wye to go on to Atlanta. ?. The north end of CHA is not easily accessible and has a very limited population. Changing to CSX there no help but route to Dalton might be faster ? Dalton - Atlanta CSX or NS unknown which route faster? Knoxville station would need a new location as well.

The need for a new station in Atlanta is well known. Any new station which needs to be located off the NS ATL - CLT line will need a loop track ( similar to the ACL Broad Street station in Richmond) to turn a train to go south.

Atlanta - Macon has the choice of the old SOU or Cof GA. CofGA had block signals removed some years ago. Macon - Cordele, Georgia good on NS but might need a few more siding(s) or longer. CSX Cordele - Jacksonville on the higher speed ACL Manchester sub (joins NY line at Folkston )

After JAX either FEC to Miami or to Orlando - TPA? - MIA or split at JAX and terminate TPA? .

 

[VentureForth]

Really, I think if an all new passenger rail ROW was constructed between Chicago and Miami and went through Indianapolis, Cincinatti, Louisville, Nashville, Chattanooga, Atlanta, Savannah, Jacksonville, and Orlando, and if it were high speed rail (not this maglev crap), it would be extremely popular, but not popular enough to pay for the ROW, MOW, Equipment, Infrastructure and overhead.

So, popular? Yes. Viable? No.

 

[neroden]

I think if it were constructed it would more than pay for itself in reduced road costs. But of course doing anything like that depends on getting the state legislatures to think that way... and while California and New England are open to thinking that way, Georgia sure isn't.