Winter season LD cutbacks

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If a particular weekend is selling out, expect to see the coaches jump back on for that weekend.
How does that work? People buy up all the seats. The next customer is told the train is sold out. Is there some way for the prospective customer to indicate they still want that date? Does someone at Amtrak review the sales numbers and go back and reopen the train for further sales?
Yes, in a word. I've actually seen this happen on busy weekends -- train "sold out" well in advance, then bookings reopen a few days as Amtrak enlarges the planned consist to add a car.

Obviously this only works when people are booking well in advance. Amtrak can't do it with, say, 5 hours notice, but with a week's notice, it certainly appears that it is possible. I'm not sure how many days notice Amtrak actually requires to add cars.
By the same token (and assuming the ability to do so...there are some cases where additions simply don't work), if Amtrak notices a train approaching, say, 95% of capacity a ways out they can also add a car if available.

In this context, there are definitely going to be various routes and subsets of routes that would be well-served by varying capacity (say, adding a coach on a given route for weekend-only use). Bear in mind that in the "old days" it wouldn't be implausible for an extra section to operate on certain days of the week in line with demand, or for cars to be added/dropped based on the same.

Of course, there would still have been heavyweights to throw around in the 50s and spare cars from dropped trains to use in the 60s. Regrettably, Amtrak had to ditch the Heritage fleet over the dump tank situation, which has likely cost us that ability (since at least in theory, a bunch of Heritage cars could have been pressed in during peak seasons)...but I digress.

I don't see these cuts as a horrible sign...in a lot of cases, based on raw ridership numbers, the cuts make some sense. I don't agree with how far the cuts went, particularly on the Coast Starlight (dropping a sleeper and a coach makes sense...especially if there's a plan to revamp the arcade space into something useful; two coaches, a sleeper, a transdorm, and the PPC? Not so much.). One thing to remember is that as far as I can tell, there's an increasing divergence between sleeper demand (which seems to be edging upwards where OTP hasn't totally disintegrated, and holding its own better than coach ridership anywhere OTP has collapsed) and coach demand.

Also...it looks like there was a plan to cut the CONO (based on other notes, possibly something involving dropping the Dorm [Paging Iowa Pacific...capacity needed on train 58/59...] and/or a coach), but some minimum axle requirement showed up in the files.
 
Remember the CONO met the axle requirement for a time by running the following consist: P42, baggage car, dorm, sleeper, diner, lounge, coach, coach. They decided to take off the full baggage car so they added a 3rd coach in its place. Generally the train is packed between NOL and MEM, and between CDL and CHI in both directions. The portion between CDL and MEM is usually not as full.
 
Obviously this only works when people are booking well in advance. Amtrak can't do it with, say, 5 hours notice, but with a week's notice, it certainly appears that it is possible. I'm not sure how many days notice Amtrak actually requires to add cars.
I can't find a picture of it, but I recently saw a poster in a station-Sacramento, probably-that said something to the effect of "book early for holiday travel so we can add cars if need be," accompanied by an cartoon of a fairy (?) adding more cars to a train. I think it also mentioned how a plane can't add capacity, but a train can relatively easily.
 
Do you believe these cuts will be restored or is this just a way to start the shut down of all long distance trains?
 
If the seasonal cuts really are "right-sized", then they'll actually help the finances of the long-distance trains.

Worry more about the *stupid, stupid, stupid* cuts in the dining car service, which are designed to reduce revenue while increasing costs. Heck, the failure to stock the items on the menu at my last dining car meal directly cost Amtrak revenue, and cost them more in "transportation certificates", and didn't reduce Amtrak's costs meaningfully.
 
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OK. I'm going to do some wild estimates again.

Using an wild estimate of $700K for variable cost of maintenance/fuel for a single car, I can estimate the savings from sidelining it for a given number of days. Then, I can get a savings estimate by train for the cutbacks.

Capitol Limited: $1.08 million

Coast Starlight: $2.63 million

Empire Builder: $0.54 million

California Zephyr: $2.15 million

Southwest Chief: $1.35 million

Cardinal: $0.18 million

LSL: $0.54 million

Crescent, Star, Meteor, Palmetto: $0.36 million each

If the dorm has to be carried on the CS, that eliminates about $0.74 million of the savings.

This doesn't account for any staff savings. I think that savings from staff furloughs will exist only on the EB (1 sleeper dropped), CS (1 sleeper dropped, coaches down from 4 to 2, PPC dropped), and possibly CL (diner & lounge vs. cross-country-cafe). Furloughing one OBS person for a month is probably only worth $50K to Amtrak, maybe less, so this is going to be inconsequential except on the Coast Starlight, where it could be worth over $200K.
 
Savings of $10m or so is still substantial (I get $9.91m total above); moreover, as I noted the proper timing of car inspections and other work offers plenty of room for opportunities to increase revenue in the longer run. Pulling that many coaches out of circulation could allow seats to be moved, there's definitely the question of Transdorm renovation, etc. The possibility of syncing maintenance cycles to allow extra capacity in the peak of the summer season (or indeed at the Christmas/Thanksgiving peaks) would also help.
 
They will be restored. Such cuts happen every year in winter and the LD network is still intact.
Your conclusion might be true, but certainly not your major (or is it minor premise). I've traveled on multiple LD trains every January for the last 8 years; and the only reductions I remember is going from 3 to 2 coaches on the CZ, CL, and possibly the SWC. I don't recall any reduction in sleepers and certainly not the elimination of the baggage car and transition sleeper. During this time I rode the PPC twice in January and missed a third try due to it being bad ordered.

Note: I consider the 3rd sleeper on the CZ a Summer addition, not a January reduction.

That being said, as long as the sleepers are moved to the back during my upcoming 5 segment trip, I won't complain if Amtrak can save some money. I wouldn't want to be right behind the horn; and I'm sure my wife will complain if diesel exhausts gets into the car.
 
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