Silver Service Test Period Fares

[jis]

That is a good point too.

 

[niemi24s]

. . .isn't it OBVIOUS that the Meteor fares WOULD go up, simply by the SHIFT of pax who will NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, RIDE AN LD TRAIN WITHOUT A DINER?

[Answer: I suppose they would, but I think they'd go up within the existing fare structure with the non-use of the lower buckets as shown in the chart. I found no evidence that the Meteors high bucket roomette ($584) or its high bucket bedroom ($1181) were exceeded - at least so far - during the seven month test period. Also note the slight change in fares during the test for the Meteors third and fourth fares from the top. Don't know what to make of that.]


Or, are you trying to compare the PRE-Test fares of each, to see if then, they were relatively comparable, and determine if AMTRAK "artificially" rose the LOW bucket starting point on the Meteor, thereby making the test results difficult to measure?

[Answer: According to the Amtrak statement in Post #31, the pre-test and post-test sleeper fares were the same for both trains. Low bucket roomette was thus $239 for both and during the test period the lowest offering fell to $179 on the Star but rose to $298 on the Meteor. Sort of the same for bedrooms. And I suspect those bottom figures in the Test columns for the Meteor are the low bucket fares simply because if there was a lower bucket, those figures would be lower that the Norm. fares for the Meteor (using the same fare differentials in the columns). Don't really know if what's seen in the Meteors test fares makes the test results difficult to measure - that's easy to do, I think, with ridership and revenue data. But it might cloud the issue of why the results were or are a certain way.]

 

[Ryan]

Another rough way at looking at the "real price" paid by folks is by looking at the ridership and revenue report.

Looking at the August report, the Star showed a 7% decrease in ridership over Aug14, with a corresponding 13% decrease in revenue. Roughly speaking, that suggests depressed fares.

On the other side, the Meteor showed a 7.7% increase in ridership with only a 0.5% increase in revenue, again suggesting that the price paid by riders was also lower.

Of course, this could also be influenced by people taking shorter trips overall (which would be cheaper), but there's no way to validate that variable changing or not, so again the magic 8 ball is hazy.

 

[niemi24s]

Do you not understand that both the number of rooms in each bucket and the number of rooms that have been sold will drive what prices you're being presented to for next Wednesday's train? If there are a lot of cheap buckets, and/or few rooms have been sold, you'll see a lower price.

[[Answer: I most certainly do understand all that. But as previously stated, all those things have to do with WHY a particular price is presented. I have no abiding interest in WHY and the gist of this thread is not the WHY but simply what the price IS. Only the price. Nothing more. I could care less about WHY the price happens to be a certain value on a certain day. We'll never know exactly WHY anyway. And please don't assert that because we'll never really know WHY we'll never really know what the price IS! Because we can really know what the price was, IS and will be.]]

You're trying to solve a multivariable equation (bucket price, number of rooms in each bucket [which can dynamically be changed], and number of rooms sold/available [which also changes]) by looking at only one variable. Any conclusions you attempt to draw about what price is going to be impacted by all three, and you're steadfastly refusing to consider two of them.

[[Answer: No, I am not. I am not trying to solve any multivariable equation for there is but a single variable. And that single variable is what the price IS. And that single variable (price) can be easily found and entered in a chart as I've done. And I make no attempt at drawing any conclusion about what price is going to be impacted by - that's speculation. The only conclusion I make regarding price is done after entering all the pertinent information into Amtrak or Amsnag, poking "Enter", seeing a price and simply concluding...uh...er... that IS the price.]]

 

[keelhauled]

If the only point of this thread is to find out what the price is, I struggle to understand why anyone should care when Amtrak.com will tell you in ten seconds and they don't have to read through three pages of bickering to find out.

 

[Ryan]

If you are trying to find "price", that is driven by the price of the buckets and what bucket is available for purchase.

I'm not sure how much more simple that it can be made.

The fact that there are buckets out there with high prices attached does not mean that there was a fare increase if those buckets are seldom offered for sale at Amtrak.com (or to drive a further variable, if tickets are actually purchased by someone at that price).

 

[jis]

If the only point of this thread is to find out what the price is, I struggle to understand why anyone should care when Amtrak.com will tell you in ten seconds and they don't have to read through three pages of bickering to find out.

Bickering is fun and entertaining for some maybe?

I think it interesting to see a compilation of the buckets in the two trains over this period at least to me, and I am glad that someone bothered to collect said info (or at least a very good guess at it). I do find it interesting for reasons mentioned in my earlier speculative post.

BTW, did the Star always carry only three Coaches, or is that something that happened recently? Have the consists remained the same relative to revenue seats in Coach pre and post test? I don;t know the answer. I am wondering if anyone has kept track of that aspect. Discussion about revenue and ridership without information about what was offered in the way of inventory seems to be half the analysis.

 

[AmtrakLKL]

BTW, did the Star always carry only three Coaches, or is that something that happened recently? Have the consists remained the same relative to revenue seats in Coach pre and post test? I don;t know the answer. I am wondering if anyone has kept track of that aspect. Discussion about revenue and ridership without information about what was offered in the way of inventory seems to be half the analysis.

The Star ran four coaches until early September. The general understanding was the fourth coach would return after the slow September travel month. Well, hello November with no sign of the fourth coach returning. Maybe instead of five coaches for Thanksgiving we'll get the fourth one back temporarily. That'll make for some really ugly ridership numbers. Maybe this is all part of the plan? I dunno... It's depressing, though.

 

[niemi24s]

I think it interesting to see a compilation of the buckets in the two trains over this period at least to me, and I am glad that someone bothered to collect said info (or at least a very good guess at it).

Thanks - glad somebody found it interesting. I just made a revision to the chart that includes my estimates of what the next lowest sleeper buckets would be during the test. The four estimates were based on the fact that progressions of all five sleeper buckets on twelve other long distance trains rose in an arithmetic progression with equal or fairly equal differences between them. These are the only estimates or guesses on this chart, all the rest of them being from Amtrak:



This chart also has all figures rounded to the nearest $10 which, I think, makes it a little easier to browse when all end in zero. I'll continue to check fares during the test period and add any new ones to the chart.

 

[tonys96]

I think this exercise is enlightening. I have my own speculation as to what is going on with the fares, but it is just that.....speculation.

Thanks for the info!

 

[niemi24s]

I think this exercise is enlightening. I have my own speculation as to what is going on with the fares, but it is just that.....speculation.

Thanks for the info!

Thanx for the kind words.

The Amtrak monthly report for September should, I think, be out in a few days. Be interesting to compare three months worth of test data with the months just prior to the test and with last years data for the same timeframe. Wonder if someone will take the time to put it all together on a chart for easy understanding. Nah, that'd be too much to expect.

 

[neroden]

That'll make for some really ugly ridership numbers. Maybe this is all part of the plan? I dunno... It's depressing, though.

All too often I start to suspect that someone at Amtrak is trying to kill or cripple the eastern sleeper trains, which is odd, given that they really do pretty well financially, and have huge potential. This has persisted through multiple Amtrak administrations, and arguably started at the beginning of Amtrak. The "scenic" transcontinentals often seem to have more lobbying power than the workhorse NY-Florida and NY-Chicago trains. Whacked out.

 

[niemi24s]

Don't know how common or unusual this might be (never having kept such a close watch on fares before) but the lower three coach buckets on both the Silver Star and Silver Meteor just rose $3. No change in the top two coach buckets or any of the sleeper fares for the remainder of the test period. Fare chart has been updated.

 

[jis]

That'll make for some really ugly ridership numbers. Maybe this is all part of the plan? I dunno... It's depressing, though.

All too often I start to suspect that someone at Amtrak is trying to kill or cripple the eastern sleeper trains, which is odd, given that they really do pretty well financially, and have huge potential. This has persisted through multiple Amtrak administrations, and arguably started at the beginning of Amtrak. The "scenic" transcontinentals often seem to have more lobbying power than the workhorse NY-Florida and NY-Chicago trains. Whacked out.

The lie about LD passenger trains making money is also the loudest from the corners where they make the biggest losses too. The more really useful a service is on a day to day basis, the more it tends to become an integral part of people's lives and is not talked about as much. Things that remain a novelty are talked about more. As long as the primary reason given to ride a train is to see the scenery, it is unlikely to succeed as a cost effective sustainable transportation mode, and is more likely to require cost prohibitive luxuries and much large amount of financial support. The Eastern trains fall more in the former category, whereas the transcons start getting a larger share of the latter flavor. So knowing implicitly that they are always under greater threat there is preemptive protection mechanisms set up by advocates, and that is why it appears that they have louder and more vocal support and lobbying - and lord knows they need it too.

 

[Anderson]

Don't know how common or unusual this might be (never having kept such a close watch on fares before) but the lower three coach buckets on both the Silver Star and Silver Meteor just rose $3. No change in any of the sleeper fares for the remainder of the test period.

That happens about once per year, give or take...and I think they try to time it either before the holidays or before summer. End of the fiscal year probaly helps the timing, too.

 

[looshi]

Don't know how common or unusual this might be (never having kept such a close watch on fares before) but the lower three coach buckets on both the Silver Star and Silver Meteor just rose $3. No change in any of the sleeper fares for the remainder of the test period. Fare chart has been updated.

There was a 2% increase in low bucket coach fares across the board on November 2nd. I heard some ticket agents talking about it last week.

 

[Bob Dylan]

According to the Government there is No Inflation so Retirees aren't getting a COLA adjustment to their pensions and Social Security.

And Fuel prices have gone way down with oil prices tanking, so one would guess that the 2% increase, along with all the nickel and dime cuts implemented and yet to come, will make Amtrak "Profitable" this Quarter!

Yep,that's the ticket!

 

[neroden]

The lie about LD passenger trains making money is also the loudest from the corners where they make the biggest losses too. The more really useful a service is on a day to day basis, the more it tends to become an integral part of people's lives and is not talked about as much. Things that remain a novelty are talked about more. As long as the primary reason given to ride a train is to see the scenery, it is unlikely to succeed as a cost effective sustainable transportation mode, and is more likely to require cost prohibitive luxuries and much large amount of financial support. The Eastern trains fall more in the former category, whereas the transcons start getting a larger share of the latter flavor. So knowing implicitly that they are always under greater threat there is preemptive protection mechanisms set up by advocates, and that is why it appears that they have louder and more vocal support and lobbying - and lord knows they need it too.

Unfortunately I think the Eastern trains need a lot more protection than they're getting. We've actually had more losses.

March 2005 was a slaughter for the Eastern trains, losing the Three Rivers & Silver Palm and the Ocala route. Western trains were fine.

April 2004 was a slaughter for the Eastern trains, losing the extended Pennsylvanian, the International, and the Kentucky Cardinal. Western Trains were fine.

The Western trains have lost *nothing* since 1997. They lost Phoenix service in 1997, along with the Pioneer and the Desert Wind.

The Eastern trains have lost a lot more, and a lot more recently.

 

[jis]

There were no multiple runs on the same route left in the west to cut in 2005. Generally a route or area that has multiple trains per day faces a higher risk of cutting of one frequency than a route that will be left with nothing.

Also like in 1997 when the western routes were hit hard with equipment shortage upon retirement of most of the Hi-Level cars, in 2005, the eastern routes were hit with the final withdrawal of many single level heritage cars. Both Silver Palm and Three Rivers could have potentially been sustained I think as pure Coach and Cafe trains. but there is a strong dislike in this country of running such trains over long distances, so the safe course was to get rid of them, unfortunately. They did try to keep the Silver Palm going in that form for a while as I recall. The real loss of the eastern trains actually happened with the nixing of the Broadway limited. Everything after that was transient coming and going of random stuff for a few years.

Frankly, neither the extended Pennsylvanian nor the Kentucky Cardinal were really serious offerings at that time absent the freight attached to them. They were a product of misplaced over-enthusiasm that even back then I did not expect to last. So they fall in entirely different category from the cancellation of long standing trains.

 

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

There were no multiple runs on the same route left in the west to cut in 2005. Generally a route or area that has multiple trains per day faces a higher risk of cutting of one frequency than a route that will be left with nothing.

Also like in 1997 when the western routes were hit hard with equipment shortage upon retirement of most of the Hi-Level cars, in 2005, the eastern routes were hit with the final withdrawal of many single level heritage cars. Both Silver Palm and Three Rivers could have potentially been sustained I think as pure Coach and Cafe trains. but there is a strong dislike in this country of running such trains over long distances, so the safe course was to get rid of them, unfortunately. They did try to keep the Silver Palm going in that form for a while as I recall. The real loss of the eastern trains actually happened with the nixing of the Broadway limited. Everything after that was transient coming and going of random stuff for a few years.

Frankly, neither the extended Pennsylvanian nor the Kentucky Cardinal were really serious offerings at that time absent the freight attached to them. They were a product of misplaced over-enthusiasm that even back then I did not expect to last. So they fall in entirely different category from the cancellation of long standing trains.

They still run the Palmetto coach without sleepers.

 

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

There were no multiple runs on the same route left in the west to cut in 2005. Generally a route or area that has multiple trains per day faces a higher risk of cutting of one frequency than a route that will be left with nothing.

Also like in 1997 when the western routes were hit hard with equipment shortage upon retirement of most of the Hi-Level cars, in 2005, the eastern routes were hit with the final withdrawal of many single level heritage cars. Both Silver Palm and Three Rivers could have potentially been sustained I think as pure Coach and Cafe trains. but there is a strong dislike in this country of running such trains over long distances, so the safe course was to get rid of them, unfortunately. They did try to keep the Silver Palm going in that form for a while as I recall. The real loss of the eastern trains actually happened with the nixing of the Broadway limited. Everything after that was transient coming and going of random stuff for a few years.

Frankly, neither the extended Pennsylvanian nor the Kentucky Cardinal were really serious offerings at that time absent the freight attached to them. They were a product of misplaced over-enthusiasm that even back then I did not expect to last. So they fall in entirely different category from the cancellation of long standing trains.

So the #1 reason Amtrak cuts service is lack of cars? Hopefully the new Viewliner II's allow Amtrak to bring back services for a change.

 

[jis]

Palmetto is what I characterize as a legacy train which has always had good ridership.

The odd thing about the Pittsburgh - Chicago situation was that originally there was a single combined train that was doing well. Then it was split in two and one sent down a new untested route (in the Amtrak era). It failed to maintain ridership so it was canned. So what do you know? The next thing that Warrington does is he introduce not one but two additional trains, and proposes to add third one on the routes that could not supposedly sustain two trains (remember Skyline Connection which failed to start before Warrington got the boot?). The whole thing was of course justified by trying to become a freight railroad with a few passenger cars attached, and passenger concerns were entirely secondary to everything else at that point. That was no way to run a passenger railroad, and rightfully the whole thing died, and with it went all the unsustainable additions.

Now if there were another 50 or so Viewliner Sleepers and 20 more Diners available and such maybe the Three Rivers (which by the way got its name instead of Broadway because even Amtrak with a straight face could not name that excuse of a train Broadway), and even the Silver Palm. But that was clearly not the case. So yeah, a lot, but not all service reductions happened as the fleet size available to Amtrak shrank dramatically over the years.

At present even after more cars become available the challenge will be lining up enough operating funds to dramatically expand LD service. I don;t think it will happen in the near future absent a dramatic collapse of the current anti-investment in transportation infrastructure movement in the country.

 

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

Palmetto is what I characterize as a legacy train which has always had good ridership.

Lowest ridership of any daily LD train.

 

[jis]

No we are not going to select further trains to cancel here. And certainly not for just providing you a one seat ride to Chicago You can already get there enough ways, so live with it.

 

[Philly Amtrak Fan]

The odd thing about the Pittsburgh - Chicago situation was that originally there was a single combined train that was doing well. Then it was split in two and one sent down a new untested route (in the Amtrak era). It failed to maintain ridership so it was canned. So what do you know? The next thing that Warrington does is he introduce not one but two additional trains, and proposes to add third one on the routes that could not supposedly sustain two trains (remember Skyline Connection which failed to start before Warrington got the boot?). The whole thing was of course justified by trying to become a freight railroad with a few passenger cars attached, and passenger concerns were entirely secondary to everything else at that point. That was no way to run a passenger railroad, and rightfully the whole thing died, and with it went all the unsustainable additions.

Now if there were another 50 or so Viewliner Sleepers and 20 more Diners available and such maybe the Three Rivers (which by the way got its name instead of Broadway because even Amtrak with a straight face could not name that excuse of a train Broadway), and even the Silver Palm. But that was clearly not the case. So yeah, a lot, but not all service reductions happened as the fleet size available to Amtrak shrank dramatically over the years.

At present even after more cars become available the challenge will be lining up enough operating funds to dramatically expand LD service. I don;t think it will happen in the near future absent a dramatic collapse of the current anti-investment in transportation infrastructure movement in the country.

To me, the Skyline would have worked instead of the Pennsylvanian. The times (timetables.org) were quite a bit better.

http://www.timetables.org/full.php?group=20000521n&item=0030

The Pennsylvanian got into Chicago and Philadelphia too late and left too early. I think the Skyline times were much better and might have given Amtrak the CHI-TOL-CLE at better hours. Which is better from CHI to CLE, 1:30-9:15pm or 6:00am-1:15pm? Which is better from CLE to CHI, 12:38-6:47pm or 6:07pm-12:26am? Who would want to arrive in Chicago at 12:26am? Who would want to leave Chicago at 6:00am? It's one thing to arrive/leave your home town at that hour but not a tourist attraction.

To me the Three Rivers name was too Pittsburgh'y. I have pushed the name "Liberty Limited" for the Philly connection and New York connection. New York probably favors the LSL so why not have a train marketed to Philadelphia?

http://www.amtrak.com/servlet/ContentServer?c=Page&pagename=am%2FLayout&cid=1246041980246

The three largest Amtrak markets are NYP, WAS, and PHL. Each one IMHO should have their own train to CHI and be able to connect in Chicago for other services in the MW/West.

http://www.amtrak.com/servlet/ContentServer?c=Page&pagename=am%2FLayout&cid=1246041980246