Low Bucket Fare Sleeper Formula Revealed

[dlagrua]

Since Amtrak decided to change the bucket fare equation I have booked a few trips and in some cases have gotten low bucket fares while in others we had to pay a considerably higher price.

It used to be that if you booked 11 months in advance, when the reservation system first opened, you would always get the low bucket fare. Today Amtrak appears to be using a far different formula based on sales history and demand.

From my experiences booking sleepers this is what I believe is going on.

1. Fares on the busier routes no longer open at the same low bucket fares as they did in the past.

2. On the busiest routes seasonal adjustments have been made to the fare structure. For instance in April and in May on the autotrain going North the booking history shows that the trains will sell out. Hence the fares open well above low bucket and as sales happen they progress to high bucket very rapidly. Same on the LSL and Silvers during most of the year.

3. On all Viewliner trains as there are only two bedrooms on each sleeper car. The low buckets have been raised into medium bucket no matter how early you book. As soon as the first bedroom is sold the bucket fares then go into high gear. Almost the same with roomettes but I believe that the low bucket fare still exist on the first 3 or 4 roomettes that are sold 8 or 9 months out.

4. The Cardinal is the special case. With only two bedrooms and maybe 8 roomettes available, the pricing always opens at a medium to near high bucket fare. With one sleeper two bedrooms and the crew taking up at least 4 spaces, its hard to even get a sleeper on this route. It won't be getting better until Viewliner II comes online and an additional sleeper is added.

5 On the Superliner routes it is still possible to get low bucket fares but again the demand/sales history, figures into the anticipated ticket sales. The CZ, EB and SC routes seem to have fares opening high while othere like the CL and CNOL still use the low bucket fare as a starting point although it comes into play 8-9 months out instead of the 11 month low bucket fares.

What does all this mean? We'll unless someone can post the offical Amtrak fare system (as it applies to routes) the above may be a guide. My info can be called a logical deduction based on some experiences but in no way can I attest to its accuracy. Its does seem to work though. We usually want to spend $300 for a bedroom on an overnight trip. We have met this goal 90% of the time.

If you want to take advantage of a low bucket sleeper fare, start checking 8-9 months in advance and book early and accept that low bucket fares on some routes have gone by the wayside.

Anyone have any better info to add? Theories, experiences, comments, inside info and contradictions are welcomed.

 

[Cho Cho Charlie]

IMHO, it seems that Amtrak is finally being run like a business.

 

[VentureForth]

According to a report Johnny posted here a few days ago, Amtrak has 24 revenue management personnel, 4 or 5 who daily manage rail fares based on all the parameters listed in the OP in order to maximize revenue.

So to say the rules change daily is probably very accurate.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

Interesting guide. I guess right now it's more important than ever to keep checking back on Amsnag.

 

[musikdude]

This is why I attempt (95% of the time) to only use points on sleeper reservations!! I have made it a personal goal to never have to pay for a sleeper with cash (I am 7 for 8 in past 3 years!!)

 

[dlagrua]

According to a report Johnny posted here a few days ago, Amtrak has 24 revenue management personnel, 4 or 5 who daily manage rail fares based on all the parameters listed in the OP in order to maximize revenue.

So to say the rules change daily is probably very accurate.

I don't put it past Amtrak to have a new system like that but if you check Amsnag frequently a possible fare pattern emerges. I still believe that some of the rules that I outlined were correct but if Amtrak is doing a daily monitoring of sales vs. revenue and making adjustments on the fly that could be detrimental. I notice that the minute after we booked a $247 bedroom fare (HFY-CHI)the fare went up to $448. Thats $200 more for the same sleeper on an overnight trip. This could explain why on our last trip to CHI in June there were plenty empty bedrooms and roomettes in the sleepers. People will only pay x amount for a sleeper and then many will be turned away. By immedaitely raising the bucket after one bedroom is sold I believe that Amtrak is doing more harm that good on some routes while at the same time they MAY be maximizing revenue on other routes. IMO the smart thing to do is go down to low bucket a few weeks before departure on any unsold roomettes and bedrooms. This way everything will most likely be sold out. A $247 bedroom sold is better than an $800 bedroom that remains empty. Thats revenue management, but not what they are doing now.

 

[Guest]

The way Amtrak manages hasn't changed. It is reacting to demand fluctuations. They don't have a simple "equation," as you seem to think.

Amtrak dynamically manages inventory rather than just a "set it and forget it" method.

The principles of what they are doing is no different now than they were 10 years ago. What has changed is demand for their inventory. This is what has impacted actual inventory manipulation on each individual route and it always has.

Keep in mind that they manage these fares between all city pairs on each route. Just as an example, suppose that the lowest fare may be available for 80% of roomettes between ORL and MIA 355 days a year, while it is available for 25% of them WAS to MIA 244 days a year. The inventory management functions are complicated.

Why should they sell any rooms at lower fares when they end up turning people away at higher fares close to departure?

 

[dlagrua]

The way Amtrak manages hasn't changed. It is reacting to demand fluctuations. They don't have a simple "equation," as you seem to think.

Amtrak dynamically manages inventory rather than just a "set it and forget it" method.

The principles of what they are doing is no different now than they were 10 years ago. What has changed is demand for their inventory. This is what has impacted actual inventory manipulation on each individual route and it always has.

Keep in mind that they manage these fares between all city pairs on each route. Just as an example, suppose that the lowest fare may be available for 80% of roomettes between ORL and MIA 355 days a year, while it is available for 25% of them WAS to MIA 244 days a year. The inventory management functions are complicated.

Why should they sell any rooms at lower fares when they end up turning people away at higher fares close to departure?

Inventory management is a good thing for maximizing revenue but to address your last point. Unless you can present evidence that all the sleepers sell out, on all Amtrak routes, at all times of the year; then selling at high top bucket fare close to departure may give you the ability to sell a few sleepers to last minute affluent travelers BUT at the same time you miss the opportunity to sell the other sleepers that might remain unsold in the preceding weeks due to the price. Its a double edged sword. Try to sell at the highest bucket rape price late on or sell at a lower bucket that would allow 90- 100% capacity to be utilized. To be truthful, I would venture to say that booking sleepers near departure is unaffordable for most of the travelers on this forum. You may get away with it on some popular routes but during our many trips (mostly in June) we have seen loads of sleepers sitting empty. Bottom line is that if we can afford the fare we buy and if not we walk. Some travelers also keep their eye on airfares. Just my opinion for some discussion that probably won't matter anyway.

 

[slimchipley]

The way Amtrak manages hasn't changed. It is reacting to demand fluctuations. They don't have a simple "equation," as you seem to think.

Amtrak dynamically manages inventory rather than just a "set it and forget it" method.

The principles of what they are doing is no different now than they were 10 years ago. What has changed is demand for their inventory. This is what has impacted actual inventory manipulation on each individual route and it always has.

Keep in mind that they manage these fares between all city pairs on each route. Just as an example, suppose that the lowest fare may be available for 80% of roomettes between ORL and MIA 355 days a year, while it is available for 25% of them WAS to MIA 244 days a year. The inventory management functions are complicated.

Why should they sell any rooms at lower fares when they end up turning people away at higher fares close to departure?

Inventory management is a good thing for maximizing revenue but to address your last point. Unless you can present evidence that all the sleepers sell out, on all Amtrak routes, at all times of the year; then selling at high top bucket fare close to departure may give you the ability to sell a few sleepers to last minute affluent travelers BUT at the same time you miss the opportunity to sell the other sleepers that might remain unsold in the preceding weeks due to the price. Its a double edged sword. Try to sell at the highest bucket rape price late on or sell at a lower bucket that would allow 90- 100% capacity to be utilized. To be truthful, I would venture to say that booking sleepers near departure is unaffordable for most of the travelers on this forum. You may get away with it on some popular routes but during our many trips (mostly in June) we have seen loads of sleepers sitting empty. Bottom line is that if we can afford the fare we buy and if not we walk. Some travelers also keep their eye on airfares. Just my opinion for some discussion that probably won't matter anyway.

10 years ago it was more "set it and forget it". Lowest prices were when space was released at 11 months and the price went up consistently as inventory was depleted. This high bucket upon initial release was something I first noticed about 2 or 3 years ago and since then it seems to be under much tighter scrutiny. As mentioned above, it seems to be run more like a real business where revenue management means maximize revenue, not just watch the numbers.

 

[Guest]

The way Amtrak manages hasn't changed. It is reacting to demand fluctuations. They don't have a simple "equation," as you seem to think.

Amtrak dynamically manages inventory rather than just a "set it and forget it" method.

The principles of what they are doing is no different now than they were 10 years ago. What has changed is demand for their inventory. This is what has impacted actual inventory manipulation on each individual route and it always has.

Keep in mind that they manage these fares between all city pairs on each route. Just as an example, suppose that the lowest fare may be available for 80% of roomettes between ORL and MIA 355 days a year, while it is available for 25% of them WAS to MIA 244 days a year. The inventory management functions are complicated.

Why should they sell any rooms at lower fares when they end up turning people away at higher fares close to departure?

Inventory management is a good thing for maximizing revenue but to address your last point. Unless you can present evidence that all the sleepers sell out, on all Amtrak routes, at all times of the year; then selling at high top bucket fare close to departure may give you the ability to sell a few sleepers to last minute affluent travelers BUT at the same time you miss the opportunity to sell the other sleepers that might remain unsold in the preceding weeks due to the price. Its a double edged sword. Try to sell at the highest bucket rape price late on or sell at a lower bucket that would allow 90- 100% capacity to be utilized. To be truthful, I would venture to say that booking sleepers near departure is unaffordable for most of the travelers on this forum. You may get away with it on some popular routes but during our many trips (mostly in June) we have seen loads of sleepers sitting empty. Bottom line is that if we can afford the fare we buy and if not we walk. Some travelers also keep their eye on airfares. Just my opinion for some discussion that probably won't matter anyway.

How do you really know that Amtrak is not offering some lower bucket fares early out? Just because you didn't get it, doesn't mean that another individual, or large group didn't already book them before you tried.

Amtrak takes group bookings before the 330 day window.

 

[winterskigirl]

These bucket fares remain a mystery but one thing I've never understood is how a family bedroom can go cheaper than a one bedroom on the Superliner LD trains. The idea put forth by Amtrak that you'll get a lower price by booking early seems like a stretch.

 

[AlanB]

These bucket fares remain a mystery but one thing I've never understood is how a family bedroom can go cheaper than a one bedroom on the Superliner LD trains.

Because family bedrooms are in a different category than Bedrooms & even roomettes. So they sell at different prices and their buckets may or may not be kicked up as rapidly as the other categories.

The idea put forth by Amtrak that you'll get a lower price by booking early seems like a stretch.

That's not an Amtrak idea or claim. That's an idea that was put out by railfans and frequent riders. And at one time, it was always true. Today, not so much.

 

[slimchipley]

The way Amtrak manages hasn't changed. It is reacting to demand fluctuations. They don't have a simple "equation," as you seem to think.

Amtrak dynamically manages inventory rather than just a "set it and forget it" method.

The principles of what they are doing is no different now than they were 10 years ago. What has changed is demand for their inventory. This is what has impacted actual inventory manipulation on each individual route and it always has.

Keep in mind that they manage these fares between all city pairs on each route. Just as an example, suppose that the lowest fare may be available for 80% of roomettes between ORL and MIA 355 days a year, while it is available for 25% of them WAS to MIA 244 days a year. The inventory management functions are complicated.

Why should they sell any rooms at lower fares when they end up turning people away at higher fares close to departure?

Inventory management is a good thing for maximizing revenue but to address your last point. Unless you can present evidence that all the sleepers sell out, on all Amtrak routes, at all times of the year; then selling at high top bucket fare close to departure may give you the ability to sell a few sleepers to last minute affluent travelers BUT at the same time you miss the opportunity to sell the other sleepers that might remain unsold in the preceding weeks due to the price. Its a double edged sword. Try to sell at the highest bucket rape price late on or sell at a lower bucket that would allow 90- 100% capacity to be utilized. To be truthful, I would venture to say that booking sleepers near departure is unaffordable for most of the travelers on this forum. You may get away with it on some popular routes but during our many trips (mostly in June) we have seen loads of sleepers sitting empty. Bottom line is that if we can afford the fare we buy and if not we walk. Some travelers also keep their eye on airfares. Just my opinion for some discussion that probably won't matter anyway.

How do you really know that Amtrak is not offering some lower bucket fares early out? Just because you didn't get it, doesn't mean that another individual, or large group didn't already book them before you tried.

Amtrak takes group bookings before the 330 day window.

Amtrak may "take" group bookings prior 11 months, but they do not confirm them until 11 months and there can be multiple groups vying for the same inventory on these tentative reservations.

 

[Guest]

The way Amtrak manages hasn't changed. It is reacting to demand fluctuations. They don't have a simple "equation," as you seem to think.

Amtrak dynamically manages inventory rather than just a "set it and forget it" method.

The principles of what they are doing is no different now than they were 10 years ago. What has changed is demand for their inventory. This is what has impacted actual inventory manipulation on each individual route and it always has.

Keep in mind that they manage these fares between all city pairs on each route. Just as an example, suppose that the lowest fare may be available for 80% of roomettes between ORL and MIA 355 days a year, while it is available for 25% of them WAS to MIA 244 days a year. The inventory management functions are complicated.

Why should they sell any rooms at lower fares when they end up turning people away at higher fares close to departure?

Inventory management is a good thing for maximizing revenue but to address your last point. Unless you can present evidence that all the sleepers sell out, on all Amtrak routes, at all times of the year; then selling at high top bucket fare close to departure may give you the ability to sell a few sleepers to last minute affluent travelers BUT at the same time you miss the opportunity to sell the other sleepers that might remain unsold in the preceding weeks due to the price. Its a double edged sword. Try to sell at the highest bucket rape price late on or sell at a lower bucket that would allow 90- 100% capacity to be utilized. To be truthful, I would venture to say that booking sleepers near departure is unaffordable for most of the travelers on this forum. You may get away with it on some popular routes but during our many trips (mostly in June) we have seen loads of sleepers sitting empty. Bottom line is that if we can afford the fare we buy and if not we walk. Some travelers also keep their eye on airfares. Just my opinion for some discussion that probably won't matter anyway.

How do you really know that Amtrak is not offering some lower bucket fares early out? Just because you didn't get it, doesn't mean that another individual, or large group didn't already book them before you tried.

Amtrak takes group bookings before the 330 day window.

Amtrak may "take" group bookings prior 11 months, but they do not confirm them until 11 months and there can be multiple groups vying for the same inventory on these tentative reservations.

The groups ARE confirmed just before the dates are released for general sales, so they are in there before individual sales open up.

 

[anir dendroica]

It doesn't make sense to start out at low bucket for trains that are likely to sell out. The changes in the past few years probably have more to do with increased ridership (more trains selling out) than with Amtrak suddenly getting smarter.

Ideally Amtrak wants to sell all of the rooms/seats at the highest average price possible. If Amtrak knows they can find enough people willing to buy seats at $400 they aren't going to sell any for $200. They might, at the last minute, open up some low-bucket tickets to fill the train, but as with last-minute airfares that is always a tough game to play as a customer.

 

[slimchipley]

The way Amtrak manages hasn't changed. It is reacting to demand fluctuations. They don't have a simple "equation," as you seem to think.

Amtrak dynamically manages inventory rather than just a "set it and forget it" method.

The principles of what they are doing is no different now than they were 10 years ago. What has changed is demand for their inventory. This is what has impacted actual inventory manipulation on each individual route and it always has.

Keep in mind that they manage these fares between all city pairs on each route. Just as an example, suppose that the lowest fare may be available for 80% of roomettes between ORL and MIA 355 days a year, while it is available for 25% of them WAS to MIA 244 days a year. The inventory management functions are complicated.

Why should they sell any rooms at lower fares when they end up turning people away at higher fares close to departure?

Inventory management is a good thing for maximizing revenue but to address your last point. Unless you can present evidence that all the sleepers sell out, on all Amtrak routes, at all times of the year; then selling at high top bucket fare close to departure may give you the ability to sell a few sleepers to last minute affluent travelers BUT at the same time you miss the opportunity to sell the other sleepers that might remain unsold in the preceding weeks due to the price. Its a double edged sword. Try to sell at the highest bucket rape price late on or sell at a lower bucket that would allow 90- 100% capacity to be utilized. To be truthful, I would venture to say that booking sleepers near departure is unaffordable for most of the travelers on this forum. You may get away with it on some popular routes but during our many trips (mostly in June) we have seen loads of sleepers sitting empty. Bottom line is that if we can afford the fare we buy and if not we walk. Some travelers also keep their eye on airfares. Just my opinion for some discussion that probably won't matter anyway.

How do you really know that Amtrak is not offering some lower bucket fares early out? Just because you didn't get it, doesn't mean that another individual, or large group didn't already book them before you tried.

Amtrak takes group bookings before the 330 day window.

Amtrak may "take" group bookings prior 11 months, but they do not confirm them until 11 months and there can be multiple groups vying for the same inventory on these tentative reservations.

The groups ARE confirmed just before the dates are released for general sales, so they are in there before individual sales open up.

The point I was attempting to make was that even though you may make your request for space say 13 months out, it is not confirmed until 11 months out and it may not be confirmed at all if there are other groups requesting the same space.

 

[Guest]

How do you really know that Amtrak is not offering some lower bucket fares early out? Just because you didn't get it, doesn't mean that another individual, or large group didn't already book them before you tried.

Amtrak takes group bookings before the 330 day window.

Amtrak may "take" group bookings prior 11 months, but they do not confirm them until 11 months and there can be multiple groups vying for the same inventory on these tentative reservations.

The groups ARE confirmed just before the dates are released for general sales, so they are in there before individual sales open up.

The point I was attempting to make was that even though you may make your request for space say 13 months out, it is not confirmed until 11 months out and it may not be confirmed at all if there are other groups requesting the same space.

Of course. But, that wasn't my point nor that of this thread. The OP assumed that he had cracked the Amtrak sleeper fare formula and I was merely stating that there's no way to really know if somebody got a low fare or not since Amtrak takes group bookings before the rest of the rooms are released for sale.

 

[dlagrua]

Also made another observation that the fare fluctuations (that include early release bucket prices) vary greatly by season, train and anticipated demand.

For instance when it is time for Amtrak to release some rooms at low bucket, they reference that fare to the month of the year, factor in the anticipated demand (based on past sales history) and then come up with a price. I would venture to say that low bucket fares during the summer months are set automatically higher even if you book early on.

My method to save a few bucks is now to plan around peak season, check sleeper fares and try to book on the most favorable day of the week. Most of the comments on this post have some validity which indicates that Amtrak now uses a fare system that factors in many major components.... season, sales demand, sales history, time of advance ticket purchase, number of sleepers available, boarding points/zones and forecast data. We can factor in this info to our equation as well.

 

[winterskigirl]

I think I'll use my AGP points on sleeper bookings and check Amsnag frequently for pricing trends

 

[mgn57]

I booked my Trip in Early August. Traveling from Dearborn to Chicago and then onto New Orleans. The Departure Date from Dearborn and Chicago is Jan 24,2013 I booked a roomette at $ 163 extra. Yesterday the fare for the roomette dropped to $ 100. I phoned Amtrak, they refunded the difference minus $ 6.30. They deducted 10 percent of the difference as refund fee.

I guess the demand must be slow right now.

 

[Guest]

Since Amtrak decided to change the bucket fare equation I have booked a few trips and in some cases have gotten low bucket fares while in others we had to pay a considerably higher price.

It used to be that if you booked 11 months in advance, when the reservation system first opened, you would always get the low bucket fare. Today Amtrak appears to be using a far different formula based on sales history and demand.

From my experiences booking sleepers this is what I believe is going on.

1. Fares on the busier routes no longer open at the same low bucket fares as they did in the past.

2. On the busiest routes seasonal adjustments have been made to the fare structure. For instance in April and in May on the autotrain going North the booking history shows that the trains will sell out. Hence the fares open well above low bucket and as sales happen they progress to high bucket very rapidly. Same on the LSL and Silvers during most of the year.

3. On all Viewliner trains as there are only two bedrooms on each sleeper car. The low buckets have been raised into medium bucket no matter how early you book. As soon as the first bedroom is sold the bucket fares then go into high gear. Almost the same with roomettes but I believe that the low bucket fare still exist on the first 3 or 4 roomettes that are sold 8 or 9 months out.

4. The Cardinal is the special case. With only two bedrooms and maybe 8 roomettes available, the pricing always opens at a medium to near high bucket fare. With one sleeper two bedrooms and the crew taking up at least 4 spaces, its hard to even get a sleeper on this route. It won't be getting better until Viewliner II comes online and an additional sleeper is added.

5 On the Superliner routes it is still possible to get low bucket fares but again the demand/sales history, figures into the anticipated ticket sales. The CZ, EB and SC routes seem to have fares opening high while othere like the CL and CNOL still use the low bucket fare as a starting point although it comes into play 8-9 months out instead of the 11 month low bucket fares.

What does all this mean? We'll unless someone can post the offical Amtrak fare system (as it applies to routes) the above may be a guide. My info can be called a logical deduction based on some experiences but in no way can I attest to its accuracy. Its does seem to work though. We usually want to spend $300 for a bedroom on an overnight trip. We have met this goal 90% of the time.

If you want to take advantage of a low bucket sleeper fare, start checking 8-9 months in advance and book early and accept that low bucket fares on some routes have gone by the wayside.

Anyone have any better info to add? Theories, experiences, comments, inside info and contradictions are welcomed.

You are attempting to over-simplify their system by picking just a few markets and using the very limited information you can gather by trying to make bookings. Amtrak manages fares in all markets on a route, not just end point to end point. While a D bucket room may not be available for, as an example, NYP to ORL, it may be available from SAV to MIA, or a D bucket room may not be available from WAS to ATL, but it may be available from CLT to NOL. There will be some markets where not all buckets may ever be used. Why should a low bucket be used in a market where someone will pay a higher amount?

Amtrak's strategy is nothing new. What IS new is an increased demand for Amtrak's services, so they are reacting to this demand. There is not an "official Amtrak fare system." They price to forecasted demand and adjust to actual demand; both are constantly changing. All businesses do this to some extent.

 

[RampWidget]

Since Amtrak decided to change the bucket fare equation I have booked a few trips and in some cases have gotten low bucket fares while in others we had to pay a considerably higher price.

It used to be that if you booked 11 months in advance, when the reservation system first opened, you would always get the low bucket fare. Today Amtrak appears to be using a far different formula based on sales history and demand.

Nice analysis. I'm looking forward to experimenting with the examples you used, and maybe finding others. Thanks!