The January, 2016 Monthly Performance Report (63 page PDF) has been posted. The pattern of recent months continues with ridership and revenue continuing to sag. One bright spot is the on-time performance on many routes is better than this time last year.
System numbers: Not good. Ticket revenue for January of $139.4 million was down -$5.3M from 2015 and $10 million below the budget. The adjusted operating loss for the month was $60 million, $17.4 million worse than January 2015. January and February are the worse months of the fiscal year for operating losses due to the decline in revenue. For comparison, the December ticket revenue was $182.4 million. Reducing consists for the winter months only trims operating costs a little. Interestingly, Food & Beverage sales of $9.4 million were up $1.3 million over 2015, but that may be due to changes in accounting for allocating sleeper revenue to the LD diner cars.
The Year-To-Date adjusted operating loss was $79.6 million, $44.9 million worse than the previous year. Hence the cash flow crunch that the Boardman memo was about.
Ridership and Ticket Revenue
The Mid-Atlantic region got hit with a major snowstorm that disrupted travel for days, so the statistics for Southern NEC, Virginia, NC services were affected. That noted, it was still a very poor month for the VA Regionals. Despite the big snowstorm, ridership on the NE Regionals was up +1.4% which is a good sign. The corridor services that had ridership increases for the month of January were the NYP-ALB Empire service, Keystone, Surfliner, Capitol Corridor, Cascades, Blue Water. All the other corridors were down in ridership in January. Amtrak needs gasoline prices to bounce back. Well, after locking in low diesel fuel costs with long term hedge contracts.
For the LD trains, the Palmetto is showing a big increase, but that is due to allowing NEC ticket sales. Except for the LSL, the other eastern LD trains were all down in ridership and revenue for the month.
Ridership and Revenue summary for the month of January compared to 2015:
System: ridership -0.6%, revenue: -2.9%
Acela: ridership -0.1%, revenue: -1.1%
NE Regional: ridership +1.4%, revenue -3.3%
State supported corridors: ridership -0.6%, revenue -0.8%
LD trains: ridership +0.6%, revenue -6.5%
Ridership and Revenue summary for the YTD from October to January:
System: ridership -1.7%, revenue: -2.3%
Acela: ridership -1.2%, revenue: -0.9%
NE Regional: ridership -1.5%, revenue -1.9%
State supported corridors: ridership -2.5%, revenue -1.3%
LD trains: ridership +0.4%, revenue -5.3%
On-Time Performance (OTP)
The good news in the continuing improvement in OTP for the month and YTD over the same periods in 2014-2015. If Amtrak can maintain or improve the OTP over what it had the past several years, that will eventually help ridership and revenue, but it takes time for customers who got frustrated with really late arrivals to return.
For the LD trains, 6 out of the 15 exceeded the goal of 80% endpoint OTP. The Capital Limited was 90% and the SWC 95.2%, which are big improvements over the previous year. What is dragging down the overall OTP for the LD trains are the AutoTrain, Silver Star & Meteor, and the Palmetto. CSX is not helping here.
On-Time Endpoint Performance for the month of January compared to 2015:
System: 82.8%, 2015: 77.7%
NE Corridor: 83.8%, 2015 78.4%
State supported corridors: 84.0%, 2015 78.3%
LD trains: 74.1%, 2015 72.3%
System numbers: Not good. Ticket revenue for January of $139.4 million was down -$5.3M from 2015 and $10 million below the budget. The adjusted operating loss for the month was $60 million, $17.4 million worse than January 2015. January and February are the worse months of the fiscal year for operating losses due to the decline in revenue. For comparison, the December ticket revenue was $182.4 million. Reducing consists for the winter months only trims operating costs a little. Interestingly, Food & Beverage sales of $9.4 million were up $1.3 million over 2015, but that may be due to changes in accounting for allocating sleeper revenue to the LD diner cars.
The Year-To-Date adjusted operating loss was $79.6 million, $44.9 million worse than the previous year. Hence the cash flow crunch that the Boardman memo was about.
Ridership and Ticket Revenue
The Mid-Atlantic region got hit with a major snowstorm that disrupted travel for days, so the statistics for Southern NEC, Virginia, NC services were affected. That noted, it was still a very poor month for the VA Regionals. Despite the big snowstorm, ridership on the NE Regionals was up +1.4% which is a good sign. The corridor services that had ridership increases for the month of January were the NYP-ALB Empire service, Keystone, Surfliner, Capitol Corridor, Cascades, Blue Water. All the other corridors were down in ridership in January. Amtrak needs gasoline prices to bounce back. Well, after locking in low diesel fuel costs with long term hedge contracts.
For the LD trains, the Palmetto is showing a big increase, but that is due to allowing NEC ticket sales. Except for the LSL, the other eastern LD trains were all down in ridership and revenue for the month.
Ridership and Revenue summary for the month of January compared to 2015:
System: ridership -0.6%, revenue: -2.9%
Acela: ridership -0.1%, revenue: -1.1%
NE Regional: ridership +1.4%, revenue -3.3%
State supported corridors: ridership -0.6%, revenue -0.8%
LD trains: ridership +0.6%, revenue -6.5%
Ridership and Revenue summary for the YTD from October to January:
System: ridership -1.7%, revenue: -2.3%
Acela: ridership -1.2%, revenue: -0.9%
NE Regional: ridership -1.5%, revenue -1.9%
State supported corridors: ridership -2.5%, revenue -1.3%
LD trains: ridership +0.4%, revenue -5.3%
On-Time Performance (OTP)
The good news in the continuing improvement in OTP for the month and YTD over the same periods in 2014-2015. If Amtrak can maintain or improve the OTP over what it had the past several years, that will eventually help ridership and revenue, but it takes time for customers who got frustrated with really late arrivals to return.
For the LD trains, 6 out of the 15 exceeded the goal of 80% endpoint OTP. The Capital Limited was 90% and the SWC 95.2%, which are big improvements over the previous year. What is dragging down the overall OTP for the LD trains are the AutoTrain, Silver Star & Meteor, and the Palmetto. CSX is not helping here.
On-Time Endpoint Performance for the month of January compared to 2015:
System: 82.8%, 2015: 77.7%
NE Corridor: 83.8%, 2015 78.4%
State supported corridors: 84.0%, 2015 78.3%
LD trains: 74.1%, 2015 72.3%