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I see that as being open to several kinds of fraud or gaming:

(1) Odometer tampering would likely become common, and it would be pretty hard to prove that the owner had done it. I'm actually reminded of the time that the odometer on my car jammed for around 2000 miles (the car was 20 years old and had some other issues). Granted, this is more of an issue for older cars, but that's still a lot of cars that are still on the road.
Agreed - it's actually somewhat easier in some newer cars. In my Suburban (and Tahoe before that), the mileage was stored in the instrument cluster, which can be swapped in about 5 minutes by taking off a piece of dash trim and 4 screws. It would be trivial to buy a second cluster and swap that out every 6 months to keep the miles off. I bought a replacement one off of eBay for about $100 that had a transmission temperature gauge installed in it - when I swapped it into the Tahoe, I "magically" had about 15,000 more on the odometer than the truck actually had on it.

(2) Registration gaming. Let's assume that a state doesn't assess a VMT. Take Delaware, Vermont, Rhode Island, or New Hampshire as an example (since they're all smaller states...and since Delaware in particular loves playing games). If VMTs became common, my instinct would be to start up a company that would nominally own your car with you paying a large fee at the start and then permanently leasing the car from us under an agreement, enabling the car to remain registered in Delaware. There was a version of this sort of game with car rental agencies in the Northwest at one time. To be fair, if the VMT is uniformly assessed (i.e. at the federal level), this could be partly averted, but if states get into the game this seems almost inevitable. There may also be ways around any registration rules that would frustrate this (such as the car remaining a "rental" and the "rental" being nominally renewed repeatedly over short periods). Even if there were a 30-day rental limit, I can see someone being on their 100th 30-day rental.

(2a) A version of this also seems likely with car sharing. From what I've seen of some European car sharing groups, there are models that allow you to "let out" your car when you're not using it and get a share of the rental charges from that. This model also has another advantage in that you could probably "switch out" your car for another one in the system with some ease (likely for a transfer fee of some kind to allow new cars to be acquired). Basically, every 30 days you'd tell the agency whether you wanted to keep your current car or swap it out for one in the system.

(3) Cars going illegitimate. Considering that I suspect there are a lot of judges who won't want to clog up local jails with offenders over vehicle registrations (and considering how many drivers are uninsured), risking a fine of several hundred dollars for driving a vehicle with an expired inspection sticker to avoid a tax bill of several thousand may be a calculated risk (and, because of the attendant safety issues, become a very serious problem).
All of these just depend on actual enforcement with meaningful penalties. It's a solvable problem with the right motivation (millions of dollars in tax revenue).
As far as the rates you propose go, I don't see any reason to set them that high. A penny a mile tax would cost the average 15,000 mile car for $150. Reasonable, and would raise a significant amount of money.
 
Ok, I'll take the point on the turnpike front...I'd generally seen toll roads as being at about that level. Depending on the state you're looking at, the VMT would still likely fall between $.02 and $.05, though...remember that some states have fairly steep gas taxes. I think CA and NY, with something like a $.50 gas tax, would need well over just that penny (not to mention that it seems likely to me that there would be an attempt to pull in extra revenue in the swap...that isn't even the most original tax-raising trick I've heard of.
 
Toll roads could easily be what politics forces areas into. Trouble is that "needed maintenance and infrastructure" is such a slippery concept. Financial analysts could come up with a dollar figure, and then there could be proposals for how to portion that out. I do think the driving population and the transit population need to stop treating this as "take no prisoners" warfare. Because stalemate is where that sort of struggle ends up.. Stalemate doesn't get anything done. Everybody loses. In a sense, we who ride transit and we who drive cars need each other. We need a mental adjustment in which we BOTH get something. Stuck in stalemate means everything goes downhill, and all the satisfaction we get is "we stopped the other guy".
 
One problem I can think of with less invasive ways of taxing VMTs is how you handle transborder traffic.
 
Interesting. US gasoline consumption has decreased to the tune of hundreds of thousands of gallons. But the government says most of it is caused by simply driving less. Can't quite understand if there's really less travel, or if people simply don't drive their cars much anymore. 2004 was not some economic watershed. If anything, the real estate bubble was taxiing for takeoff then. Only 7 percent of savings comes from improved vehicle efficiency. But with laws passed since then, efficiency could expand the cut in gasoline usage.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-has-US-Oil-Consumption-Steadily-Fallen-since-2004.html
 
There are a number of factors at play here. The big ones, though, are:
(1) Young people don't want to drive in the same way their parents did. I know there are quite a few people my age, myself included, who would rather be on their computer, reading a book, etc. than driving. I know many older folks viewed driving time as "their time" when they legitimately couldn't be bothered; for 20-somethings, they'd rather have that time to chat, text, play games, etc.

(2) Gas prices rose. If you look at more detailed price charts, there was a watershed in 2004: Up through 2004, the nominal price of a gallon of gas was never over about $2.00 on a national basis. Obviously, places like HI and CA had higher prices, but the national average didn't break $2.00 until early 2005. Since then, it has only gone back below $2.00 once, during the bottom of the 2008 crash, and the recent floor has been around $3.20 or so. If you look at the chart, gas over $2.00 caused use to stagnate. Gas over $3.00 started pushing it down dramatically, though there's also a chance that we've hit a new equilibrium now.

(3) The economy stagnated. Flat wages and so forth have pushed people to do less "discretionary" driving, and this combined with #2 seem to have killed off the "drive to qualify" approach to finding a home.

(4) Cars are getting more efficient. A chart of new car fuel efficiency says a lot as well; though it is taking a while to trickle through the system (there are lots of older cars on the road, so it'll take a decade or so for averages to catch up), average efficiency is also rising rapidly.

1-3 address the drop in VMT. 4 addresses a compounding change.

Edit: There's a chart down the initial article. Basically, VMT was driving the drop for a while, but fuel efficiency improvements have taken over in the last few years.
 
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Interesting. US gasoline consumption has decreased to the tune of hundreds of thousands of gallons. But the government says most of it is caused by simply driving less. Can't quite understand if there's really less travel, or if people simply don't drive their cars much anymore. 2004 was not some economic watershed. If anything, the real estate bubble was taxiing for takeoff then. Only 7 percent of savings comes from improved vehicle efficiency. But with laws passed since then, efficiency could expand the cut in gasoline usage.
The real estate bubble was approaching its peak in 2004. The peak was in 2005, early 2006, followed by a weakening market which started to go into serious decline in 2007. There is a surprisingly strong match between gas and oil prices (and other commodity prices) increasing from 2005 to 2008 and the weakening and then the bottom falling out in the housing market.
As Anderson wrote, driving is down, especially among the younger set. Total US VMT has been in decline or flat since circa 2004. See the VMT chart in the thread I started on the US DOT consistently overestimating future total VMT growth since 2000.
 
So if vehicle miles traveled is permanently down, how much reduction in building and maintenance results from that? Is the cost of highways in any way related to the amount of their use? And even if personal mileage is down, I'm guessing business are using them more. Online retail has to be putting more heavy trucks on the road for more miles. Should the cost of online shopping factor in more costs for the wear and tear of those trucks? (Non-related, but this does put those octocopters that Amazon wants to loose in an interesting light. The more packages they deliver, the less trucks have to go out)
 
So if vehicle miles traveled is permanently down, how much reduction in building and maintenance results from that? Is the cost of highways in any way related to the amount of their use? And even if personal mileage is down, I'm guessing business are using them more. Online retail has to be putting more heavy trucks on the road for more miles. Should the cost of online shopping factor in more costs for the wear and tear of those trucks? (Non-related, but this does put those octocopters that Amazon wants to loose in an interesting light. The more packages they deliver, the less trucks have to go out)
I'm not sure, but I'm fairly certain it's not anywhere close to a 1:1 correlation since there's a lot of cyclical replacement you have to carry out due to weather, etc.
 
So if vehicle miles traveled is permanently down, how much reduction in building and maintenance results from that? Is the cost of highways in any way related to the amount of their use? And even if personal mileage is down, I'm guessing business are using them more. Online retail has to be putting more heavy trucks on the road for more miles. Should the cost of online shopping factor in more costs for the wear and tear of those trucks? (Non-related, but this does put those octocopters that Amazon wants to loose in an interesting light. The more packages they deliver, the less trucks have to go out)
The online shopping does not really put more heavy trucks on the road- instead of traveling from distribution centers to stores, they travel from distribution centers to UPS processing centers. It does put more medium duty delivery trucks on the road.
 
So if vehicle miles traveled is permanently down, how much reduction in building and maintenance results from that? Is the cost of highways in any way related to the amount of their use? And even if personal mileage is down, I'm guessing business are using them more. Online retail has to be putting more heavy trucks on the road for more miles. Should the cost of online shopping factor in more costs for the wear and tear of those trucks? (Non-related, but this does put those octocopters that Amazon wants to loose in an interesting light. The more packages they deliver, the less trucks have to go out)
The online shopping does not really put more heavy trucks on the road- instead of traveling from distribution centers to stores, they travel from distribution centers to UPS processing centers. It does put more medium duty delivery trucks on the road.
I don't think we're finished with the business model shifts there, either. I could see a situation a decade hence where Amazon (for example) shifts models somewhat and, to meet the quick shipping demands out there in major cities arranges to hot-shot a lot of stuff between (more numerous) centers by rail and then does short-distance distribution by truck. It's not an unreasonable model to consider, both in light of volume and in light of how they're working to undermine the brick-and-mortar folks. At the moment, "delivery lag" is the only thing Amazon faces vis-à-vis some of the big box folks, and you can get same-day delivery in some places even now.
 
Did some calculation today. If there was a 50 percent increase in the federal tax, which would raise tens of billions of new dollars, the personal impact on me would be about 5 cents a day. 5 cents a day. I want to say "Go for it! We need our infrastructure. We can no more lose it than a body can neglect the cardiovascular system."

Yes, I know my 5 cents is a fraction of what some people might pay. But I also know that the landscape of household budgets is target-rich for adjustments. The people with the LEAST flexibility are probably not forking out for $4 gas right now anyway. I make plane trips places and cannot believe the passenger loads. My whole year's gas budget would buy 4 days in Las Vegas over a weekend. And the tax is a tiny corner of that. A very short Asian nearly rammed me (didn't see if it was Dodge he was driving) because his pickup was so oversized for him. And I see junior-sized women driving the same monsters. The "family car". First adjustment might be get an actual car! How many people actually need that size truck every day of their lives? I just know no matter if you TRIPLE the gas tax, I'll still see some of these people wrestling their Belgian-size steeds through parking lots. Their inflexibility is in their minds.

So lets get a serious tax increase. Get those jobs and those projects rejuvenating the circulatory system of our economy.
 
Excellent Post re Taxes and the Infrastructure! Americans Love to complain about Taxes even though we're the Lowest Taxes Developed Nation on Earth! The Anti-Everythings and the NIMBYs and the T-Pub Crowd seem tothink there is a Free Lunch!

If one wants to help turn this Wonderful Land into a Pit let them keep on messing with the Government and before you know it we'll be like a Third World Country! (Let them visit Mexico if they want to see what we can become without Investing in the Common Good!) :help:
 
Excellent Post re Taxes and the Infrastructure! Americans Love to complain about Taxes even though we're the Lowest Taxes Developed Nation on Earth! The Anti-Everythings and the NIMBYs and the T-Pub Crowd seem tothink there is a Free Lunch!

If one wants to help turn this Wonderful Land into a Pit let them keep on messing with the Government and before you know it we'll be like a Third World Country! (Let them visit Mexico if they want to see what we can become without Investing in the Common Good!) :help:
I think the case of India is also instructive. Anything that is old got shoddy.
 
Honestly, all else being equal, I'd rather see a substantial increase in the amount of the interstate highway system that's open to tolling. In a very real way, it's more transparent...but at the same time, you can "get away with it" more easily for a number of reasons. That plus the gas tax being an ultimately unsustainable mechanism with the CAFE reforms (to quote Wikipedia, "On July 29, 2011, President Obama announced an agreement with thirteen large automakers to increase fuel economy to 54.5 miles per gallon for cars and light-duty trucks by model year 2025.").

With this in mind, over the next ten years it seems likely that doubling the gas tax would simply end up at roughly break-even within ten years, and that we'll be back where we are in 6-8 years after you account for inflation. In that context, I don't think the fight for a gas tax hike is necessarily worth it, paticularly if we're going to be stuck re-fighting the same battle in 5-10 years (only to be facing flak for it being "another gas tax hike")...and probably then having to fight it out in another 5-10 years. A gas tax increase is only worth fighting for if it's not just a "quick fix".
 
Honestly, all else being equal, I'd rather see a substantial increase in the amount of the interstate highway system that's open to tolling. In a very real way, it's more transparent...but at the same time, you can "get away with it" more easily for a number of reasons. That plus the gas tax being an ultimately unsustainable mechanism with the CAFE reforms (to quote Wikipedia, "On July 29, 2011, President Obama announced an agreement with thirteen large automakers to increase fuel economy to 54.5 miles per gallon for cars and light-duty trucks by model year 2025.").

With this in mind, over the next ten years it seems likely that doubling the gas tax would simply end up at roughly break-even within ten years, and that we'll be back where we are in 6-8 years after you account for inflation. In that context, I don't think the fight for a gas tax hike is necessarily worth it, paticularly if we're going to be stuck re-fighting the same battle in 5-10 years (only to be facing flak for it being "another gas tax hike")...and probably then having to fight it out in another 5-10 years. A gas tax increase is only worth fighting for if it's not just a "quick fix".
Not sure about all else being equal. I could easily support a multi-source solution. I just think the time is to formulate that solution and get ON with it. We seem to imagine politically in this country we can just fiddle and fiddle and time passage won't matter. But time is WEAR In infrastructure. Sadly, we can't say "OK, lets stop using it till we can get consensus". Every year past is more bridges that are bound to come down. Lose one and now bad traffic problems become horrendous traffic problems. People imagine there's "savings" in putting of tax collection. No there isn't. Every stoppage costs billions. At least on main routes like I-5. Or I35 when the bridge collapsed. What, are people saying "Yeh, billions lost but not a cent from MY pocket!" No, when you pay necessary taxes to maintain it is explicit. When the money goes away through impact on economies, you still lose but it is incalculable. You'd think this one matter where the polarized Congress could find some meaningful common ground. This is "pay as you go". Raising user fees of whatever sort are an exception to "sell bonds to China and raise the debt". How moribund are we to temporize on something so essential to an advanced economy?
 
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Charlie and I discussed this, and there is a way around the short-sightedness of politicians. If you can put a promise out of only having to take a "bad" vote once, it can sell, since facing a bad vote now is better than having to face a bad vote every cycle or two.
 
Honestly, all else being equal, I'd rather see a substantial increase in the amount of the interstate highway system that's open to tolling. In a very real way, it's more transparent...but at the same time, you can "get away with it" more easily for a number of reasons. That plus the gas tax being an ultimately unsustainable mechanism with the CAFE reforms (to quote Wikipedia, "On July 29, 2011, President Obama announced an agreement with thirteen large automakers to increase fuel economy to 54.5 miles per gallon for cars and light-duty trucks by model year 2025.").

With this in mind, over the next ten years it seems likely that doubling the gas tax would simply end up at roughly break-even within ten years, and that we'll be back where we are in 6-8 years after you account for inflation. In that context, I don't think the fight for a gas tax hike is necessarily worth it, paticularly if we're going to be stuck re-fighting the same battle in 5-10 years (only to be facing flak for it being "another gas tax hike")...and probably then having to fight it out in another 5-10 years. A gas tax increase is only worth fighting for if it's not just a "quick fix".
Not sure about all else being equal. I could easily support a multi-source solution. I just think the time is to formulate that solution and get ON with it. We seem to imagine politically in this country we can just fiddle and fiddle and time passage won't matter. But time is WEAR In infrastructure. Sadly, we can't say "OK, lets stop using it till we can get consensus". Every year past is more bridges that are bound to come down. Lose one and now bad traffic problems become horrendous traffic problems. People imagine there's "savings" in putting of tax collection. No there isn't. Every stoppage costs billions. At least on main routes like I-5. Or I35 when the bridge collapsed. What, are people saying "Yeh, billions lost but not a cent from MY pocket!" No, when you pay necessary taxes to maintain it is explicit. When the money goes away through impact on economies, you still lose but it is incalculable. You'd think this one matter where the polarized Congress could find some meaningful common ground. This is "pay as you go". Raising user fees of whatever sort are an exception to "sell bonds to China and raise the debt". How moribund are we to temporize on something so essential to an advanced economy?
Neither the I-5 or the I-35W bridge collapses had anything to do with deferred maintenance. One was a truck hit and the other was an original design error. I'm not aware of one major bridge failure in the last 20 years or more that was due to a lack of maintenance.
 
Both bridges were built according to engineering knowledge at the time, but that's one of the best reasons they needed replacement. The highway engineers knew for years that I35 was badly engineered. And it was wear that finally brought it down after nearly 40 years. With the correct engineering, like the present bridge, and with inspections properly spaced, it could have gone on for indefinite periods of time. Engineers and safety experts have agreed there are tens of THOUSANDS of bridges that are critical in the USA. That's not even debatable. The reason the I35 bridge was still there with its defect was a state administration using frozen taxes as a way to get re-elected. And a lieutenant governor who was doubling as roads commissioner with zero relevant experience. It was a political time bomb. Well, the roads fund is even worse, stuck for decades at a fixed rate and the whole world changes around it. And the least efficient vehicles are a major reason to stalemate change, The owners know they are the bullseye on any program of increasing the trust fund. So I expect loud arguments that everything is just fine. To me its like Morton Thiokol with the O-rings and the Titanic's owners with ice bergs. We all have to screen out the screams of opposition and look at realistic hazards, both to safety and to economic needs.
 
Just to clarify, the I-35W failure was the result of a design error in the sizing of a connection gusset plate - part of a bolted connection between multiple structural sections. The error resulted in the connection being grossly under designed and incapable of supporting the code loads at the time of the bridge design (1965). It was not a case of old standards not meeting current requirements. It was an engineering and detailing mistake, plain and simple. The error was missed by the QA/QC program of the original design firm, and by the design reviews conducted by the state and federal DOT. It was an accident waiting to happen, and no one knew the design defect was there. If there was a failure in maintenance, it was that some subtle clues that the plates were undersized were missed. Minor warping and distortions had been seen during routine inspections, but those findings were considered incidental, non-critical and never caused anyone to go back to the original design. No one thought those huge plates were simply too thin.

Actual bridge applied loads caused by typical traffic are normally much lower than the loads the codes require for design, and so-called "safety factors" are applied to provide a margin between code loads and failure loads. That is why the bridge did not collapse sooner. Ironically, it was bridge maintenance that finally overloaded the plate and caused the failure. They were in the process of repairing the bridge deck and had stored some of the equipment and materials on the bridge. The added dead load of those stored items in addition to the normal traffic load, though well below the assumed capability of the bridge, overstressed and failed one of the gusset plates, and caused the bridge collapse.

The design flaw was first discovered in the course of the NTSB post collapse investigation. For structural engineers, the I-35W failure brought back some horrid memories. A failure due to bad connection detailing? See Hyatt Regency Kansas City. That was a failure that forever changed the way structural connections were designed, detailed, and reviewed. Unfortunately, the I-35W design occurred 16 years before the Hyatt failure. The lessons learned and engineering practice changes resulting from the Hyatt failure were not in place in 1965.

The I-5 failure was caused by an oversize vehicle striking a cross member in a through truss. The often-cited inadequacy of the bridge design is that it is "non-load-path redundant," which in English means that the failure of one structural segment will result in the failure of the bridge. Obviously, if a bridge that is non-load-path redundant fails, had that bridge been load-path-redundant, it might not have failed. However, there are untold numbers of bridges and other structures that lack redundancy. Being non-load-path redundant does not mean that bridge, or others like it, is unsafe and should be replaced. Given infrastructure needs, replacing such structures that are otherwise perfectly adequate would seem to me to be a monumental waste of money. For bridges like this, it would seem to be more cost effective to find ways to prevent oversize trucks from hitting truss members.

As for infrastructure funding needs, I am well aware of that. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) produces the annual Infrastructure Report Card - the report commonly referenced when the need for infrastructure spending is promoted. I know that because I'm a structural engineer, a member of ASCE, and despite being "retired," still actively participate on an ASCE technical committee (on my own dime just because I think it's fun). In a way, I contribute to that report.

I absolutely agree that there is a critical need for infrastructure spending. Are the I-35W or I-5 collapses good examples of that need? In my opinion, no.
 
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Thanks, that's great info.

Do you have some good examples that highlight the need for more infrastructure spending? Looking around at the report I see a lot of numbers and totals, but don't see many specific examples.
 
Just to clarify, the I-35W failure was the result of a design error in the sizing of a connection gusset plate - part of a bolted connection between multiple structural sections. The error resulted in the connection being grossly under designed and incapable of supporting the code loads at the time of the bridge design (1965). It was not a case of old standards not meeting current requirements. It was an engineering and detailing mistake, plain and simple. The error was missed by the QA/QC program of the original design firm, and by the design reviews conducted by the state and federal DOT. It was an accident waiting to happen, and no one knew the design defect was there. If there was a failure in maintenance, it was that some subtle clues that the plates were undersized were missed. Minor warping and distortions had been seen during routine inspections, but those findings were considered incidental, non-critical and never caused anyone to go back to the original design. No one thought those huge plates were simply too thin.

Actual bridge applied loads caused by typical traffic are normally much lower than the loads the codes require for design, and so-called "safety factors" are applied to provide a margin between code loads and failure loads. That is why the bridge did not collapse sooner. Ironically, it was bridge maintenance that finally overloaded the plate and caused the failure. They were in the process of repairing the bridge deck and had stored some of the equipment and materials on the bridge. The added dead load of those stored items in addition to the normal traffic load, though well below the assumed capability of the bridge, overstressed and failed one of the gusset plates, and caused the bridge collapse.

The design flaw was first discovered in the course of the NTSB post collapse investigation. For structural engineers, the I-35W failure brought back some horrid memories. A failure due to bad connection detailing? See Hyatt Regency Kansas City. That was a failure that forever changed the way structural connections were designed, detailed, and reviewed. Unfortunately, the I-35W design occurred 16 years before the Hyatt failure. The lessons learned and engineering practice changes resulting from the Hyatt failure were not in place in 1965.

The I-5 failure was caused by an oversize vehicle striking a cross member in a through truss. The often-cited inadequacy of the bridge design is that it is "non-load-path redundant," which in English means that the failure of one structural segment will result in the failure of the bridge. Obviously, if a bridge that is non-load-path redundant fails, had that bridge been load-path-redundant, it might not have failed. However, there are untold numbers of bridges and other structures that lack redundancy. Being non-load-path redundant does not mean that bridge, or others like it, is unsafe and should be replaced. Given infrastructure needs, replacing such structures that are otherwise perfectly adequate would seem to me to be a monumental waste of money. For bridges like this, it would seem to be more cost effective to find ways to prevent oversize trucks from hitting truss members.

As for infrastructure funding needs, I am well aware of that. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) produces the annual Infrastructure Report Card - the report commonly referenced when the need for infrastructure spending is promoted. I know that because I'm a structural engineer, a member of ASCE, and despite being "retired," still actively participate on an ASCE technical committee (on my own dime just because I think it's fun). In a way, I contribute to that report.

I absolutely agree that there is a critical need for infrastructure spending. Are the I-35W or I-5 collapses good examples of that need? In my opinion, no.
The design flaw wasn't "discovered". MNDOT was aware of it for years. It was reported up the line. The politicians didn't want to hear. The fact is that traffic itself evolved from something the bridge could handle to something that original design wasn't meant for. That's what HAPPENS when decades are involved. That's why constant attention to and replacement of infrastructure is inherent in the fact that usage of it evolves. The people who scowl at the word "tax" will argue and argue that every failure is not a symptom of anything larger. But if you take an interest in any story and read everything published, you come to realize the obvious. Maintaining a modern, evolving economy requires the same kind of ongoing investment as keeping a large and growing business going. Detroit has had to totally RETOOL several times as the market and the technology changed. Otherwise, it would simply fade away. Well, "fade away" is NOT what we want for our whole economy, but we treat it as if it was a house or car we were planning to run into the ground and let the next generation tear it down. But the next generation cannot do any such thing with an economy.

You say "an oversize vehicle" destroyed the I5 bridge. How common was such a vehicle at the time that bridge was opened. I lived in Oregon at the time, so I saw the vehicles on the highway. Oversize is another product of evolution. Washington was, again, whistling in the dark, hoping its luck would hold out as it stalled on re-engineering for the traffic that uses highways now.

And that is another reason an adequate and growing trust fund is indispensable. We should have a fixed percentage of the economy in infrastructure renewal. Any business knows that it only has a future if it replaces capital on a constant basis.
 
Just to clarify, the I-35W failure was the result of a design error in the sizing of a connection gusset plate - part of a bolted connection between multiple structural sections. The error resulted in the connection being grossly under designed and incapable of supporting the code loads at the time of the bridge design (1965). It was not a case of old standards not meeting current requirements. It was an engineering and detailing mistake, plain and simple. The error was missed by the QA/QC program of the original design firm, and by the design reviews conducted by the state and federal DOT. It was an accident waiting to happen, and no one knew the design defect was there. If there was a failure in maintenance, it was that some subtle clues that the plates were undersized were missed. Minor warping and distortions had been seen during routine inspections, but those findings were considered incidental, non-critical and never caused anyone to go back to the original design. No one thought those huge plates were simply too thin.

Actual bridge applied loads caused by typical traffic are normally much lower than the loads the codes require for design, and so-called "safety factors" are applied to provide a margin between code loads and failure loads. That is why the bridge did not collapse sooner. Ironically, it was bridge maintenance that finally overloaded the plate and caused the failure. They were in the process of repairing the bridge deck and had stored some of the equipment and materials on the bridge. The added dead load of those stored items in addition to the normal traffic load, though well below the assumed capability of the bridge, overstressed and failed one of the gusset plates, and caused the bridge collapse.

The design flaw was first discovered in the course of the NTSB post collapse investigation. For structural engineers, the I-35W failure brought back some horrid memories. A failure due to bad connection detailing? See Hyatt Regency Kansas City. That was a failure that forever changed the way structural connections were designed, detailed, and reviewed. Unfortunately, the I-35W design occurred 16 years before the Hyatt failure. The lessons learned and engineering practice changes resulting from the Hyatt failure were not in place in 1965.

The I-5 failure was caused by an oversize vehicle striking a cross member in a through truss. The often-cited inadequacy of the bridge design is that it is "non-load-path redundant," which in English means that the failure of one structural segment will result in the failure of the bridge. Obviously, if a bridge that is non-load-path redundant fails, had that bridge been load-path-redundant, it might not have failed. However, there are untold numbers of bridges and other structures that lack redundancy. Being non-load-path redundant does not mean that bridge, or others like it, is unsafe and should be replaced. Given infrastructure needs, replacing such structures that are otherwise perfectly adequate would seem to me to be a monumental waste of money. For bridges like this, it would seem to be more cost effective to find ways to prevent oversize trucks from hitting truss members.

As for infrastructure funding needs, I am well aware of that. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) produces the annual Infrastructure Report Card - the report commonly referenced when the need for infrastructure spending is promoted. I know that because I'm a structural engineer, a member of ASCE, and despite being "retired," still actively participate on an ASCE technical committee (on my own dime just because I think it's fun). In a way, I contribute to that report.

I absolutely agree that there is a critical need for infrastructure spending. Are the I-35W or I-5 collapses good examples of that need? In my opinion, no.
The design flaw wasn't "discovered". MNDOT was aware of it for years. It was reported up the line. The politicians didn't want to hear. The fact is that traffic itself evolved from something the bridge could handle to something that original design wasn't meant for. That's what HAPPENS when decades are involved. That's why constant attention to and replacement of infrastructure is inherent in the fact that usage of it evolves. The people who scowl at the word "tax" will argue and argue that every failure is not a symptom of anything larger. But if you take an interest in any story and read everything published, you come to realize the obvious. Maintaining a modern, evolving economy requires the same kind of ongoing investment as keeping a large and growing business going. Detroit has had to totally RETOOL several times as the market and the technology changed. Otherwise, it would simply fade away. Well, "fade away" is NOT what we want for our whole economy, but we treat it as if it was a house or car we were planning to run into the ground and let the next generation tear it down. But the next generation cannot do any such thing with an economy.
You say "an oversize vehicle" destroyed the I5 bridge. How common was such a vehicle at the time that bridge was opened. I lived in Oregon at the time, so I saw the vehicles on the highway. Oversize is another product of evolution. Washington was, again, whistling in the dark, hoping its luck would hold out as it stalled on re-engineering for the traffic that uses highways now.

And that is another reason an adequate and growing trust fund is indispensable. We should have a fixed percentage of the economy in infrastructure renewal. Any business knows that it only has a future if it replaces capital on a constant basis.
OK. You win.
 
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