Ryan
Court Jester
Agreed - it's actually somewhat easier in some newer cars. In my Suburban (and Tahoe before that), the mileage was stored in the instrument cluster, which can be swapped in about 5 minutes by taking off a piece of dash trim and 4 screws. It would be trivial to buy a second cluster and swap that out every 6 months to keep the miles off. I bought a replacement one off of eBay for about $100 that had a transmission temperature gauge installed in it - when I swapped it into the Tahoe, I "magically" had about 15,000 more on the odometer than the truck actually had on it.I see that as being open to several kinds of fraud or gaming:
(1) Odometer tampering would likely become common, and it would be pretty hard to prove that the owner had done it. I'm actually reminded of the time that the odometer on my car jammed for around 2000 miles (the car was 20 years old and had some other issues). Granted, this is more of an issue for older cars, but that's still a lot of cars that are still on the road.
All of these just depend on actual enforcement with meaningful penalties. It's a solvable problem with the right motivation (millions of dollars in tax revenue).(2) Registration gaming. Let's assume that a state doesn't assess a VMT. Take Delaware, Vermont, Rhode Island, or New Hampshire as an example (since they're all smaller states...and since Delaware in particular loves playing games). If VMTs became common, my instinct would be to start up a company that would nominally own your car with you paying a large fee at the start and then permanently leasing the car from us under an agreement, enabling the car to remain registered in Delaware. There was a version of this sort of game with car rental agencies in the Northwest at one time. To be fair, if the VMT is uniformly assessed (i.e. at the federal level), this could be partly averted, but if states get into the game this seems almost inevitable. There may also be ways around any registration rules that would frustrate this (such as the car remaining a "rental" and the "rental" being nominally renewed repeatedly over short periods). Even if there were a 30-day rental limit, I can see someone being on their 100th 30-day rental.
(2a) A version of this also seems likely with car sharing. From what I've seen of some European car sharing groups, there are models that allow you to "let out" your car when you're not using it and get a share of the rental charges from that. This model also has another advantage in that you could probably "switch out" your car for another one in the system with some ease (likely for a transfer fee of some kind to allow new cars to be acquired). Basically, every 30 days you'd tell the agency whether you wanted to keep your current car or swap it out for one in the system.
(3) Cars going illegitimate. Considering that I suspect there are a lot of judges who won't want to clog up local jails with offenders over vehicle registrations (and considering how many drivers are uninsured), risking a fine of several hundred dollars for driving a vehicle with an expired inspection sticker to avoid a tax bill of several thousand may be a calculated risk (and, because of the attendant safety issues, become a very serious problem).
As far as the rates you propose go, I don't see any reason to set them that high. A penny a mile tax would cost the average 15,000 mile car for $150. Reasonable, and would raise a significant amount of money.