David Gunn says "VIA Rail Dying"

[jis]

It is not For Amtrak to decide that anymore. That becomes a New York State funded train come 1st October.

 

[fairviewroad]

True this! Everyone who has The Ocean and the Canadian on their Bucket List should Book it soon as they can get a Good Fare,(Express or 50% Off) it looks like all that will be left of VIA will be Reduced Service on the Windsor to Quebec City Corridor with a fewTrains to Ottawa!

I doubt that even that will survive. VIA is shrinking to the point where it's too small to function.
I suspect that when VIA is shut down entirely, either Ontario or Toronto will pay the bill to keep Amtrak's Maple Leaf running.

I suspect that in that case, Amtrak would run the Maple Leaf on its own, all the way to Toronto, with or without Canadian funding.....

I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another

Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing

hassle.

 

[jis]

True this! Everyone who has The Ocean and the Canadian on their Bucket List should Book it soon as they can get a Good Fare,(Express or 50% Off) it looks like all that will be left of VIA will be Reduced Service on the Windsor to Quebec City Corridor with a fewTrains to Ottawa!

I doubt that even that will survive. VIA is shrinking to the point where it's too small to function.
I suspect that when VIA is shut down entirely, either Ontario or Toronto will pay the bill to keep Amtrak's Maple Leaf running.

I suspect that in that case, Amtrak would run the Maple Leaf on its own, all the way to Toronto, with or without Canadian funding.....

I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another

Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing

hassle.

Come 1st October, that is not a decision for Amtrak to make, since by PRIIA 209 the Maple Leaf is a New York State train, not an Amtrak System train.

 

[railiner]

I don't quite get the purpose of this PRIIA......is it a sort of back-door method of breaking Amtrak up into a bunch of state operated 'railroads', kind of like Amtrak California?

Is this what Amtrak wants, or is it something being imposed on Amtrak by the government?

Whatever happened to the old way, the "403b" method of states paying Amtrak to operate additional short distance trains? Is it a matter of each state bureaucracy wanting to "build their own empire"?

 

[jis]

Mind you.... what follows here is my interpretation of the events that I see unfolding. One should be free to disagree completely with it, but IMHO the current series of events fit this hypothesis.....

The writing that I see on the wall is that PRIIA 209 happened as a compromise to save the LD trains, which were targeted to be zeroed out. The deal was that the cost of short distance trains would be transferred to the states in exchange for continuing federal funds for the LD trains for the time being, though not quite stated in so many words. But effectively that is what happened at the last round of authorization. Amtrak kept its side of the bargain by asking for a smaller federal subsidy for 2014 operations. We wait with baited breath to see what will happen at the next round.

The basic direction is to progressively remove all direct federal funding (not supported by dedicated user fees) in its present form as clearly identifiable funding for Amtrak from the Fed DOT. Notwithstanding the fond belief of some that Amtrak intends to transfer all funding to NEC, which BTW, Amtrak cannot do all by itself anyway, there are other sections in PRIIA that requires Amtrak with the states in question, to come up with a formula for charging the real cost of maintaining the NEC to all the users of NEC with the goal of progressively reducing direct federal subsidy to zero. That is what created the NEC Commission.

There are multiple proposals floating around in various congressional circles about how federal loan guarantees and such can be leveraged to pull in additional non-federal funding to fund things like HSR and State of Good Repair for the NEC etc. That is the long term direction, whether we like it or not. The powers that be seem to have arrived at the conclusion that given the current and foreseeable budgetary situation it will be hard to come up with the kind of money needed to fully fund passenger rail purely from federal full grants, and hence the search for alternatives. PRIIA took the first steps in that direction. We can choose to either understand what is going on, embrace it and come up with solutions within this new evolving (it is no means final what will happen eventually) framework, or stick our head in the sand and wait for the inevitable. One just has to look north of the border to see a sneak preview.

It is mostly a case of a federal government that is truly broke and incapable of fulfilling all its obligations with the resources available to it given the taxing environment present today.

 

[fairviewroad]

I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another

Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing

hassle.

Come 1st October, that is not a decision for Amtrak to make, since by PRIIA 209 the Maple Leaf is a New York State train, not an Amtrak System train.

Regardless of who controls the purse strings, I think the same outcome would occur if the VIA discontinued its operation of the

Canadian portion of the Maple Leaf. But hopefully we won't have the chance to find out.

 

[CHamilton]

The "Warren Buffett of Canada" is buying BlackBerry. Maybe he'll buy VIA for dessert.

 

[Trogdor]

I don't quite get the purpose of this PRIIA......is it a sort of back-door method of breaking Amtrak up into a bunch of state operated 'railroads', kind of like Amtrak California?

Is this what Amtrak wants, or is it something being imposed on Amtrak by the government?

Whatever happened to the old way, the "403b" method of states paying Amtrak to operate additional short distance trains? Is it a matter of each state bureaucracy wanting to "build their own empire"?

403b went away with Amtrak's original authorization, which expired in the late 1990s (1996-ish, I'm thinking).

Ever since then, it has been up to Amtrak negotiating individual deals with states, and, from what I understand, each of those was different depending on what Amtrak and the individual state agreed to. Now, with PRIIA, Amtrak has to have a standard method of charging, and the states have to pay the full cost for the service.

 

[Ryan]

It is mostly a case of a federal government that is truly broke and incapable of fulfilling all its obligations with the resources available to it given the taxing environment present today.

This is the bottom line. Until this gets fixed, all bets are off (with far more than Amtrak, but that's outside the scope here).

 

[Bob Dylan]

The "Warren Buffett of Canada" is buying BlackBerry. Maybe he'll buy VIA for dessert.

:hi: ^_^

 

[railiner]

It is mostly a case of a federal government that is truly broke and incapable of fulfilling all its obligations with the resources available to it given the taxing environment present today.

This is the bottom line. Until this gets fixed, all bets are off (with far more than Amtrak, but that's outside the scope here).

It all sounds pessimistic but also realistic.....will just have to wait and see.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

About the Niagara Falls trains, Amtrak may want to contract with GO Transit for thruway connections to Toronto from across the border. That way Amtrak can gain more New York-Toronto passengers without adding another train.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

I do think VIA will be the next [Ferrocarriles Nacionales de México]

That would be my guess as well.

There are folks who continue to believe that VIA remains healthy.

Despite being dependent upon a relatively hostile government.

The crux of their position seems to revolve around singing the virtues of inertia.

I'm not sure I can imagine a less persuasive defense if I tried.

No telling when this may come to pass but the writing is on the wall in my view.

If you're planning to ride VIA in the future I'd do it now before the next budget battle.

 

[Nathanael]

VIA cut trains outside of the core corridor routes that were little used. The one exception might have been the Moncton-Montreal portion of the Ocean. The Halifax portion long ago ceased as a viable inter-city function.

Seems to be true. But three-a-week is throwing away the Moncton market; Amtrak found out what a bad idea three-a-week was some years ago.

And on the Niagara Falls and Kitchener routes it was the passengers who abandon VIA after GO Transit added a more frequent and cheaper service even if some schedules involved a train-bus transfer. The morning VIA train into Toronto lost about half its passengers after GO started.

There is no such excuse for the London, Sarnia or Windsor cuts. And the complaints were loudest in London and Sarnia, which have been left without usefully scheduled service. Surely, if VIA had been properly managed, they could have retained a functional "day trip" schedule from Sarnia.

 

[Nathanael]

I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another

Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing

hassle.

From what I've heard, there's high demand from people going the whole way, Toronto to New York City.

 

[Nathanael]

It is mostly a case of a federal government that is truly broke and incapable of fulfilling all its obligations with the resources available to it given the taxing environment present today.

I would say a government where Congress *chooses* not to fulfill all its obligations (this is a disagreement on economics; the federal government cannot be broke as long as it can print money, which it still can, so it is not broke), but the result for Amtrak is much the same.

 

[Anderson]

I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another

Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing

hassle.

From what I've heard, there's high demand from people going the whole way, Toronto to New York City.

Without prejudice to the accuracy of the data (or not), if this is the case, then would it be feasible to set up something like Amtrak wants to at MTR at TWO as well? Especially with VIA basically out of the corridor TWO-Niagara, it might just make sense to ram the train through non-stop.

 

[fairviewroad]

I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another

Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing

hassle.

From what I've heard, there's high demand from people going the whole way, Toronto to New York City.

Without prejudice to the accuracy of the data (or not), if this is the case, then would it be feasible to set up something like Amtrak wants to at MTR at TWO as well? Especially with VIA basically out of the corridor TWO-Niagara, it might just make sense to ram the train through non-stop.

Right. If VIA truly exits that corridor, then Amtrak/New York State isn't going to want to maintain the intermediate stations with the

possible exception of NFS. Of course, maintaining NFS would eliminate the possibility of pre-clearance in TWO. However, I think

it's a long shot due to the distance between TWO and the border...it makes it a much different scenario than in MTR and VAC and

I'd doubt that US CBP would be comfortable agreeing to a "sealed train" over that length.

 

[railiner]

I suspect the opposite would be true. Much easier for Amtrak to simply truncate it at NFL and market it as another

Empire Service train. I'm kind of surprised this service still exists, given the slow travel times and the border crossing

hassle.

From what I've heard, there's high demand from people going the whole way, Toronto to New York City.

Without prejudice to the accuracy of the data (or not), if this is the case, then would it be feasible to set up something like Amtrak wants to at MTR at TWO as well? Especially with VIA basically out of the corridor TWO-Niagara, it might just make sense to ram the train through non-stop.

Right. If VIA truly exits that corridor, then Amtrak/New York State isn't going to want to maintain the intermediate stations with the

possible exception of NFS. Of course, maintaining NFS would eliminate the possibility of pre-clearance in TWO. However, I think

it's a long shot due to the distance between TWO and the border...it makes it a much different scenario than in MTR and VAC and

I'd doubt that US CBP would be comfortable agreeing to a "sealed train" over that length.

They could do it if they had a border official or two ride between Toronto and the border to insure the 'integrity' of the train. They used to run the Niagara Rainbow 'closed doors' all the way from Buffalo to Detroit at one time, didn't they? And conversely, the Atlantic Limited across Maine, although that train did make a handful of Maine stops....

 

[Nathanael]

Of course, maintaining NFS would eliminate the possibility of pre-clearance in TWO.

Well... I suppose, actually, you could have pre-clearance in both Niagara Falls, Canada and in Toronto, and simply not carry local passengers between Niagara Falls and Toronto. There's enough room on the Niagara Falls station site to set that up.

 

[Anderson]

Niagara Falls, ON-TWO is 82 miles. Niagara Falls, NY-TWO is 84 miles. Lacolle-MTR 48 miles, RSP-MTR 49 miles. Yes, there's a difference between the two, but it doesn't seem insurmountably long.

And I do agree that having two preclearance stops seems likely...after all,the Niagara Falls stations are close enough to the border to staff a setup there from the border.

 

[fairviewroad]

Niagara Falls, ON-TWO is 82 miles. Niagara Falls, NY-TWO is 84 miles. Lacolle-MTR 48 miles, RSP-MTR 49 miles. Yes, there's a difference between the two, but it doesn't seem insurmountably long.

And I do agree that having two preclearance stops seems likely...after all,the Niagara Falls stations are close enough to the border to staff a setup there from the border.

Fair points (and I did consider the two pre-clearance option). But it's worth noting that the MTR preclearance is not actually open yet, and has taken years and years to get even to this point. If VIA were to drop their NFS run, it would be well into the next decade before there'd be a pre-clearance in TWO even under the most optimistic timeline.