$5 a Gallon Gasoline by 2012

[henryj]

This from former President of Shell Oil. Good news for Amtrak and all passenger rail I would think. But will our politicians get the message?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/12/27/oil-exec-predicts-gallon-gas-energy-shortages-decades-end/

 

[john h]

I won't belive it til it happens

 

[Ryan]

This tells me everything that I need to know:

criticized the administration for cracking down on domestic oil drilling in the wake of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

All he's doing is crying wolf to try and influence politicians.

 

[Hanno]

I won't belive it til it happens

By then it may be too late. A little (or a lot) good sense planning might make sense. But, alas, where can we find any of that!

 

[OlympianHiawatha]

The way RBOB and other commodity futures are skyrocketing, I'm looking for $5 gas by spring of 2011. Jet A will, of course, be going up well, "forcing" airlines to raise fares and add even more vigorish to tickets. Amtrak is going to wish they already had the 100 or so new cars already on the line.

 

[Gratt]

This is outside Amtrak purview, but I will be blunt, short of a major war in the Middle East, this will NOT happen. Alberta tar sands are very viable at $90 a barrel, Iraq is rapidly increasing production, and Saudi Arabia the nation with the largest excess production supply is not interested in $100 much less anything higher because they know it will cause rapid development of oil alternatives which will hurt their bottom line in the long run.

The United States and Europe will remain relatively stagnant in their oil demands as they squeeze out every drop of efficiency while China and India will rise in demand which will be offset by what I mentioned above. The result will be a rise an overall rise in oil costs but short of a few speculative peaks it will not go anywhere near the $190 a barrel range for another decade.

 

[Devil's Advocate]

Good thing Amtrak doesn't need petroleum products to operate most of their network.

 

[Shawn Ryu]

Unless you live in NY, LA, Chicago, DC, Boston, Philly, or maybe Seattle, Baltimore and Wilmington metro you have to take a car to the Amtrak station.

 

[eagle628]

This tells me everything that I need to know:

criticized the administration for cracking down on domestic oil drilling in the wake of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

All he's doing is crying wolf to try and influence politicians.

It's from Faux News. What did you expect?

 

[ALC Rail Writer]

*Gasp*

Gas prices will be increasing, stop the presses...

 

[amamba]

Unless you live in NY, LA, Chicago, DC, Boston, Philly, or maybe Seattle, Baltimore and Wilmington metro you have to take a car to the Amtrak station.

I walk to the amtrak station - Providence.

 

[Ispolkom]

How does this prediction compare to, for instance, Goldman Sach's prediction in mid 2008 that crude prices would reach $200 a barrel by the end of that year? (Hint: the price was $45 a barrel on 12/13/2008.)

 

[transit54]

Unless you live in NY, LA, Chicago, DC, Boston, Philly, or maybe Seattle, Baltimore and Wilmington metro you have to take a car to the Amtrak station.

With all due respect, that's not true, even assuming you meant 'a major city.' I live in Burlington, VT and I can (and regularly do) take a bus to the Amtrak station in Essex Junction, VT. In fact, I don't even own a car here - I commute solely by bus and bike (when its warmer) and we have a carshare program here (like Zipcar), so I can take a car out when necessary.

Now, Burlington really has exceptional transit service considering what most places our size have, but a large number of small and medium sized cities have workable transit systems. Off the top of my head, I can think of: Bridgeport, New Haven, Hartford and Stamford, Connecticut, Austin, TX, San Antonio, TX, Springfield, MA, Worcester, MA, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Orlando, FL, New Orleans, LA, and Davis, CA - and those are just ones that I've personally been to (yes, I realize some of these qualify as 'major cities'). There are probably at least fifty or sixty others.

Now I admit that trying to navigate an unfamiliar bus system isn't the easiest thing in the world (but Google Transit is making this much simpler), but that doesn't mean that you have to drive to any Amtrak station that's not in a major city - there are many times viable transit options. Now many places haven't invested in transit and have heavily suburbanized development, but that doesn't mean that you have to drive in many of the small cities where other options exist. And please don't confuse the fact that many people choose to live in areas without (and not suited for) transit service with whether or not transit is available in the city in question, and whether that transit goes to the Amtrak station.

Irregardless of this particular prediction, I think that fuel prices are inevitably going to rise and that we really need to begin investing in a wide variety of transportation modes and in development styles that permit walking, biking and transit use (and almost also universally create highly desired, livable communities).

 

[henryj]

How does this prediction compare to, for instance, Goldman Sach's prediction in mid 2008 that crude prices would reach $200 a barrel by the end of that year? (Hint: the price was $45 a barrel on 12/13/2008.)

It's one of those things like predicting the end of the world. If you predict it long enough and loud enough eventually you will be right. :giggle:

 

[PRR 60]

How does this prediction compare to, for instance, Goldman Sach's prediction in mid 2008 that crude prices would reach $200 a barrel by the end of that year? (Hint: the price was $45 a barrel on 12/13/2008.)

It's one of those things like predicting the end of the world. If you predict it long enough and loud enough eventually you will be right. :giggle:

Even a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day.

 

[pennyk]

Unless you live in NY, LA, Chicago, DC, Boston, Philly, or maybe Seattle, Baltimore and Wilmington metro you have to take a car to the Amtrak station.

I live in Orlando and I take a bus to get to the Amtrak station about half the time I travel.

 

[Pastor Dave]

It may be that if gas prices trend towards $5.00 per gallon we'll see both a rise in people moving back into cities with public transit and a greater use of Amtrak for long-distance travel. I use my auto at least 70% for business related purposes, so I would need to factor in the IRS mileage rate. Right now at 50.5 cents per mile it is well worth it for me to drive, even to locations where other transit means are available.

 

[caravanman]

It seems a good time now to buy some gas, and then sell it later? All you need is to fill a few cardboard boxes and your fortune is assured.

I am off to cash in my south sea bubble shares now...

Ed

 

[Edgefan]

Unless you live in NY, LA, Chicago, DC, Boston, Philly, or maybe Seattle, Baltimore and Wilmington metro you have to take a car to the Amtrak station.

75 miles is my closest present station. Hopefully that will be cut down to 20 miles if our future GOP Governor lets the proposed Iowa City to Chicago route stand. He's going to revisit the proposal, when he gets in office. :blink:

 

[transit54]

It may be that if gas prices trend towards $5.00 per gallon we'll see both a rise in people moving back into cities with public transit and a greater use of Amtrak for long-distance travel.

Here's the problem, though: the increases in transit ridership don't offset the increases the transit agencies pay in fuel costs. As a result, when fuel prices go up, transit ridership spikes and most agencies end up cutting back service. Really what we need is a firm commitment to increasing the quality of public transit in this country. I'm not sure how the fuel equation looks for Amtrak, but I would be surprised if they face the same issues when fuel prices rise.

 

[Gratt]

It may be that if gas prices trend towards $5.00 per gallon we'll see both a rise in people moving back into cities with public transit and a greater use of Amtrak for long-distance travel. I use my auto at least 70% for business related purposes, so I would need to factor in the IRS mileage rate. Right now at 50.5 cents per mile it is well worth it for me to drive, even to locations where other transit means are available.

While I am all for more Urban vs Suburban, transit friendly living. Its not suburbanites that will get hurt the most from high gasoline prices. It's those who live in rural areas. In places where towns and farms are many miles apart and people need to drive hours to get supplies very high gas prices will kill that way of life.

And that is something frankly I cannot support. There are other ways to supporting urbanism and transit without resorting to farm killing gas prices

 

[Green Maned Lion]

As much as $5 a gallon would kill my business (I operate a Ford Econoline, and it gets 12 miles to the gallon on a good day) I pray for the day when it comes to pass and stays that way. Our gas prices have been too bloody low for too damned long. When people begin to understand the economies of scale of traveling en masse, we will be better off.

 

[dlagrua]

A sharp rise in fossil fuel prices is imminent. Little new domestic drilling, no new refineries built since the 1970's and increased worldwide demand lie on the horizon. I believe that $5.00 per gallon gasoline is possible and this will lead to increased passenger rail travel.

Trains are the MOST efficient way of transporting freight and people. I gallon of diesel fuel can move 1 ton of frieght or the equivalent passenger weight 435 miles. while the railroads fuel costs will rise they will feel the impact less than those driving or transporting with trucks.

When my wife and myself go on vacation we take the train and then navigate the city where we visit using local and in many case public transportation. By the formula Amtrak uses less than 1 gallon of fuel to get us there. In contrast if we drove 1000 miles we would use at least 40-50 gallons of gasoline. People will need to learn to drive less instead of hopping in the car for every purpose. If everyone took the train then fuel prices will drop but Americans are a spoiled lot and I know people that have 6 or more cars just in their immediate family. The love affair that Americans have with the auto will be declining as driving will be very expensive and not as affordable.

 

[transit54]

While I am all for more Urban vs Suburban, transit friendly living. Its not suburbanites that will get hurt the most from high gasoline prices. It's those who live in rural areas. In places where towns and farms are many miles apart and people need to drive hours to get supplies very high gas prices will kill that way of life.

And that is something frankly I cannot support. There are other ways to supporting urbanism and transit without resorting to farm killing gas prices

Without getting too much into this, you must realize that if gas prices were voluntarily increased (i.e. a gas tax) it could be structured such that those that need to live in rural areas (such as farmers) could be exempted or refunded the tax (obviously, we wouldn't have that option if the price increased as a result of market forces, which I think is one of many compelling reasons for raising the gas tax). Farmers and those that support them aren't the problem - its the people who choose to live 50-60 miles from work and commute each day in a single passenger vehicle. In fact, if we can get the masses to conserve, we can keep prices lower for those who really have no other options.

 

[Pastor Dave]

It may be that if gas prices trend towards $5.00 per gallon we'll see both a rise in people moving back into cities with public transit and a greater use of Amtrak for long-distance travel. I use my auto at least 70% for business related purposes, so I would need to factor in the IRS mileage rate. Right now at 50.5 cents per mile it is well worth it for me to drive, even to locations where other transit means are available.

While I am all for more Urban vs Suburban, transit friendly living. Its not suburbanites that will get hurt the most from high gasoline prices. It's those who live in rural areas. In places where towns and farms are many miles apart and people need to drive hours to get supplies very high gas prices will kill that way of life.

And that is something frankly I cannot support. There are other ways to supporting urbanism and transit without resorting to farm killing gas prices

Your point is well taken. I was living in a rural area during the gas crunch of the mid 70's and we were definately hurt by the fact that auto was our main (and really, only) means of transport. I think what I was trying to suggest is that gas prices could reach a point where people who have a choice between urban and non-urban living may base their decision on not having to rely on a car to get around.