San Joaquins to cancel Morning Express, look at skip-stop train

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calwatch

Lead Service Attendant
Joined
Nov 28, 2010
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428
https://sjjpa.com/wp-content/uploads/SJJPA-Board-Packet-January-25-Web-Version-3.pdf

After nearly eight months in operation, ridership on the Morning Express Train (701) remains very low and current trends suggest it is not likely to increase. Low ridership on the Morning Express Train has negatively impacted San Joaquins revenue and farebox recovery. Poor on-time performance in this time slot has certainly impacted the ability to attract and sustain Morning Express ridership, but based upon passenger comments, the limited amount of service available and the large amount of pad-time at the end of the schedule have also contributed to low ridership. The impact from the low ridership of the Morning Express Train on revenue is exacerbated since most of the Morning Express riders are taking relatively short distance trips and many are taking advantage of discounted (multi-ride) fares. Farebox recovery has also been declining since Amtrak has shown very little operating cost savings from reducing the distance served by the Morning Express Train.

In order to increase San Joaquins ridership, revenue and farebox recovery, staff are recommending that SJJPA take action to return to full-corridor service for all 7 daily round trips (7 days a week) in April/May 2019. This change will be coordinated with the upcoming Capitol Corridor schedule change. A Scheduling Team which includes BNSF, Amtrak, Caltrans, CalSTA and SJJPA has been meeting since November to develop the best schedule to achieve the objectives. The Team is recommending that this schedule be a “slotted” schedule where all San Joaquins trains meet at specified double-track sections and a pulsed schedule where trains leave from Bakersfield and Oakland every two hours. The Team is also working on distributing the pad time more evenly throughout the corridor and overnight track maintenance windows. These changes will help increase ridership and revenue and also set the stage for being able to re-introduce Morning Express Service as part of future service expansion.

Also, SJJPA is looking at an express bus from Madera to San Jose because Bakersfield residents wanted it. I think most LA basin residents would take one of the cheap intercity buses or fly rather than go on three vehicles (bus-train-bus), but it would help the Central Valley to Bay Area market tremendously. 
 
Well adding the morning express screwed the original schedule up so I haven't taken the train to SFO last year. The old schedule was great where one could leave SFO afternoon and be back in Bakersfield at 7PM. On my two trips to the Bay Area in 2018, I drove and flew. Train 714 now departs at 9:45AM and the next one 716 is at 2:45PM. Not having a noon departure was a really dumb idea.
 
Basically, "revenue" is "how much money are we bringing in?" while "farebox" is "how does revenue compare with expenses?"  It is possible to raise revenue while hosing farebox recovery (e.g. you run a bunch of empty trains) or raise farebox whether or not revenue goes up (e.g. cancelling poorly-used trains).  The two generally correlate, but the relationship isn't 1:1.
 
I found the schedule change unusual as well and I don't even take the San Joaquin. I know 701 used to run the whole corridor, I don't get why they would eliminate one run and replace it with an early morning limited stop train. I can understand why they'd experiment with limited stop trains, but not why they'd eliminate a whole run and reconfigure the schedule for it. 
 
I'm confused as to why it was called the "Morning Express." Sure, it runs in the morning. But aside from starting in Fresno rather than Bakersfield, it doesn't actually skip any stations...which is what is traditionally implied by the word "express."

It would be like starting a southbound Acela in PHL and calling it "express" because it "skips" everything north of Philadelphia.

EDIT: Well, I guess ALL the Acelas are called "express," so perhaps that's not the best example. But you know what I mean...
 
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I'm confused as to why it was called the "Morning Express." Sure, it runs in the morning. But aside from starting in Fresno rather than Bakersfield, it doesn't actually skip any stations...which is what is traditionally implied by the word "express."

It would be like starting a southbound Acela in PHL and calling it "express" because it "skips" everything north of Philadelphia.

EDIT: Well, I guess ALL the Acelas are called "express," so perhaps that's not the best example. But you know what I mean...


95% marketing, 5% "you dont have to switch to a bus to get to Sacto before 10am"

I am not shocked the run failed. People use the San Joaquin to get between valley cities and to the bay area. I think the highest ridership station pair is Hanford-Fresno...a pair this new "express" train didnt serve!

The committee needs to get their heads out of their norcal window and see what riders are actually looking for.
 
While there was steady growth over the course of its first few months, the Morning Express Train ridership peaked in early October (21st week) averaging about 61 passengers a day on weekdays (see Figure 1). In the nearly two months that followed, ridership averaged about 46 passengers.
OUCH!!

There have been plans floating around to use the CAHSR tracks with the San Joaquin once the valley section is completed and until the section to San Francisco is built. Having a dedicated grade separated track at 125MPH that they can use from Bakersfield to Fresno should make a big difference. 
 
Schedule date change is officially May 6. Back to more or less the 2017 schedule (with a few tweaks to maximize train meets on double track), and Morning Express is on "hiatus" until Sacramento gets four trains, and they feel Morning Express would do better on the alignment that stops at Midtown. 
 
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