Iowa service?

[Steel City Don]

Saw this online tonight, I say go for it!

http://www.kcci.com/...nz/-/index.html

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

I noticed that the video is quite misleading with repeated showings of the AE even though this line will probably never get electrified. If IA pays for it then this would get a lot more pax than the ex-Burlington on the CHI-OMA route.

 

[Notelvis]

Also afoot are plans for renewed Northern Illinois service (last operated in 1981) through Rockford to Dubuque which, of course, is just barely in Iowa.

Having worked with a youth organization in Dubuque summers in the 1990's, I still have a number of good friends in the area and I would plan a rail trip to Dubuque in an instant once this train is running.

 

[jphjaxfl]

The former Rock Island now Iowa Interstate Railroad's tracks will need significant upgrading for 90MPHyou running.

 

[afigg]

The Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Chicago to Omaha corridor study was posted in mid-November, but I never did get around to posting about it. Link to the Study website with the DEIS document and dates for the public meetings.

The study recommends the selection of the obvious route through Iowa City to Des Moines to Council Bluffs to Omaha. Now that the study has reached a conclusion, will that might be enough in 2014 to get the state legislature and Governor to provide the state matching funds for the HSIPR grant for the Chicago to Quad Cities to Iowa City service? $177 million has been obligated to IL for the Chicago to Quad Cities segment & for the bi-level corridor cars. $53 million of the FY2010 grant is still there for Iowa to use for the extension to Iowa City.

I think if the funds are obtained to start service to Iowa City in 2016 or so, that extending the service to Des Moines will follow a few years later.

 

[Steel City Don]

It will definetaly take some time....

 

[Agent]

Chicago to Omaha train would attract 1.3 million riders.

 

[Anderson]

Is there a link to the study showing 1.3 million riders? I don't recall seeing numbers quite so high before. Also, is there any indication of how much revenue that would generate versus the costs? At PPR of $20, that would be $26 million in revenue. At $30, it would be $39 million. All of those numbers would be quite impressive.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

I think 1,300,000 pax per year is too much. I roughly estimate maybe 800,000.

 

[coachseats]

I think 1,300,000 pax per year is too much. I roughly estimate maybe 800,000.

The Iowa DOT and a professional transportation engineering firm spent over a year doing a study and analyzing the data to come up with their estimate. Why do you think they are wrong? I'm not saying your number is any more or less accurate of an estimate, I'm just curious what data you used to arrive at the 800,000 number?

Link to study info.:

http://www.iowadot.gov/chicagotoomaha/resources.html#docs

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

I think 1,300,000 pax per year is too much. I roughly estimate maybe 800,000.

The Iowa DOT and a professional transportation engineering firm spent over a year doing a study and analyzing the data to come up with their estimate. Why do you think they are wrong? I'm not saying your number is any more or less accurate of an estimate, I'm just curious what data you used to arrive at the 800,000 number?

Link to study info.:

http://www.iowadot.g...urces.html#docs

I was just estimating because there are very few Amtrak trains that have more than 1,000,000 ridership. Looking at the population density of the line and ridership of other Amtrak trains serving such populations got me 800,000 at the most. It als depands heavily on how many cars are available, but even if you had unlimited equipment, I still doubt 1,300,000. That would be akin to the Keystone which serves more population over shorter distances at higher speeds and probably more equipment.

 

[Anderson]

Well, it's not supposed to be one train, it's supposed to be 4/day to Omaha and 5/day to Des Moines.

Edit:

http://www.iowadot.gov/chicagotoomaha/pdfs/draftEIS/Chapter%202%20Alternatives.pdf

The ridership estimate for route 4-A (the chosen route) is 680,000-935,000 with revenue of $24.2-33.9 million, not 1.3 million. What seems possible is that they added the IA study to an IL study for the Quad Cities train and got 1.3 million that way.

As to state trains, the highest once-daily train is the Carolinian (306k), followed by the Pennsylvanian (212k), then followed by the Lynchburger (184k). Two of IL's state trains are twice-daily, and they generate 232k and 325k total (though both are partly supplemented by LD trains, to be fair). Looking for state trains in the 600k-1m range, you're looking at the Hiawatha, which is about 6 round trips per day, the WAS-NPN route (5 trains to RVR, 2 continue to NPN), and the Cascades. Ultimately, I do find a mid-range of 800,000 to be feasible; I just don't see the route generating 3500 pax/day (or around 400/train).

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

Well, it's not supposed to be one train, it's supposed to be 4/day to Omaha and 5/day to Des Moines.

Edit:

http://www.iowadot.g...lternatives.pdf

The ridership estimate for route 4-A (the chosen route) is 680,000-935,000 with revenue of $24.2-33.9 million, not 1.3 million. What seems possible is that they added the IA study to an IL study for the Quad Cities train and got 1.3 million that way.

As to state trains, the highest once-daily train is the Carolinian (306k), followed by the Pennsylvanian (212k), then followed by the Lynchburger (184k). Two of IL's state trains are twice-daily, and they generate 232k and 325k total (though both are partly supplemented by LD trains, to be fair). Looking for state trains in the 600k-1m range, you're looking at the Hiawatha, which is about 6 round trips per day, the WAS-NPN route (5 trains to RVR, 2 continue to NPN), and the Cascades. Ultimately, I do find a mid-range of 800,000 to be feasible; I just don't see the route generating 3500 pax/day (or around 400/train).

I agree with Anderson. Now we'll just have to wait for the money.

 

[jebr]

I wonder if it'd make any sense, if possible, to have a few sleepers to attach on an overnight run each way. Des Moines is a six-hour or so bus ride on the interstate, and Omaha is eight to nine hours. There may be enough of a market for sleepers on the route to justify it, but I'm not sure. (Plus, if the train is faster, then it may also not make sense.)

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

I wonder if it'd make any sense, if possible, to have a few sleepers to attach on an overnight run each way. Des Moines is a six-hour or so bus ride on the interstate, and Omaha is eight to nine hours. There may be enough of a market for sleepers on the route to justify it, but I'm not sure. (Plus, if the train is faster, then it may also not make sense.)

I don't think Amtrak will be willing to operate an overnight train. They usually avoid those as much as possible because they need every Sleeper they have on existing routes and a consist without any Sleepers would get more pax during the day. Who knows if they'll end up betting another CHI-OMA, though.

 

[Anderson]

I wonder if it'd make any sense, if possible, to have a few sleepers to attach on an overnight run each way. Des Moines is a six-hour or so bus ride on the interstate, and Omaha is eight to nine hours. There may be enough of a market for sleepers on the route to justify it, but I'm not sure. (Plus, if the train is faster, then it may also not make sense.)

I'm not sure if the market is there. If the numbers worked and the state was willing to subsidize it, Amtrak would likely run such a service (assuming they have the equipment), but CHI-OMA doesn't seem to be quite big enough for such a service on a continual basis, and CHI-DSM doesn't seem long enough to run such a train (which would need to leave CHI at some obnoxious hour at night to make the trip work outbound, and leave DSM at a similarly bad hour inbound). If you could have something like the old Ampad that was stuck on the Shenandoah (say, the lower level of a coach car having two bedrooms and a half-dozen roomettes), that might work for the trip, since I do suspect that a train with an 8 AM arrival time into CHI might sell enough seats on the "back end" from at least the Quad Cities, and possibly from Des Moines, to work as part of the planned set of runs.

Of course, let's segue the question somewhat: How much business could a later-evening departure from CHI and a morning arrival in CHI get to/from Denver? And if IA was getting some sort of "piggyback" deal, could that nudge the overall losses downwards enough for the budget to work (i.e. it's an LD train, but it's "off the national network" and IL/IA is sponsoring it from OMA-CHI)? Even if you did something wacky like cut off coaches at OMA or DSM to preserve equipment, I can't help but wonder if this wouldn't work.

 

[jphjaxfl]

I wonder if it'd make any sense, if possible, to have a few sleepers to attach on an overnight run each way. Des Moines is a six-hour or so bus ride on the interstate, and Omaha is eight to nine hours. There may be enough of a market for sleepers on the route to justify it, but I'm not sure. (Plus, if the train is faster, then it may also not make sense.)

I'm not sure if the market is there. If the numbers worked and the state was willing to subsidize it, Amtrak would likely run such a service (assuming they have the equipment), but CHI-OMA doesn't seem to be quite big enough for such a service on a continual basis, and CHI-DSM doesn't seem long enough to run such a train (which would need to leave CHI at some obnoxious hour at night to make the trip work outbound, and leave DSM at a similarly bad hour inbound). If you could have something like the old Ampad that was stuck on the Shenandoah (say, the lower level of a coach car having two bedrooms and a half-dozen roomettes), that might work for the trip, since I do suspect that a train with an 8 AM arrival time into CHI might sell enough seats on the "back end" from at least the Quad Cities, and possibly from Des Moines, to work as part of the planned set of runs.

Of course, let's segue the question somewhat: How much business could a later-evening departure from CHI and a morning arrival in CHI get to/from Denver? And if IA was getting some sort of "piggyback" deal, could that nudge the overall losses downwards enough for the budget to work (i.e. it's an LD train, but it's "off the national network" and IL/IA is sponsoring it from OMA-CHI)? Even if you did something wacky like cut off coaches at OMA or DSM to preserve equipment, I can't help but wonder if this wouldn't work.

If it was 50 years ago, it might have worked. As late as 1963, Burlington, Rock Island and Milwaukee Road all had overnight dedicated Chicago to Omaha trains with Sleeping Cars. Burlington had the Aksarben Zephyr that actually ran Chicago-Omaha+Lincoln. It actually used California Zephyr Equipment that was laying over in Chiacgo. Rock Island ran the Corn Belt Rocket that dropped off a car in Des Moines before continuing to Omaha. Milwaukee Road had the Arrow that carrier Chicago to Omaha and Chicago to Sioux City- Sioux Falls equipment. I doubt very seriously that markt would come back, but it was there.

 

[Anderson]

You know, I'll qualify my comments a bit further: I could see it happening if ridership just goes off in a tear. I think 800,000 and 1.3 million is the difference there...at that point, if you could get the $35-37 PPR that seems to be projected, you'd be looking at $47.1 million, which is probably more than enough to cover the cost of the service. And being honest, if you could through some miracle get Nebraska to cover an extension to Lincoln (which would, under such a result, probably add another 150-200k to the pile...but considering the likely low net cost there, it would probably cover its net expenses...and of course, if it would be a substantially profitable move you might get IA to spring for it), Lincoln+Omaha/Council Bluffs might actually be enough of a market to make that worth a shot...especially if traffic on I-80 truly gets bad like the projections seem to expect.

Still, those sorts of ridership numbers are going to require everything short of fairy dust to make happen.

One point worth noting, though, is that the 680k-935k numbers do seem to be initial year of operation numbers, which actually suggests higher numbers once you get through a ramp-up period. Another note is that apparently, the higher end of the operational options has been bumped from 4/day to OMA and 5/day to DSM to 5 and 7, respectively. With that said, while the PR material mentions 1.3m as a peak ridership projection, I can't find that in the primary documentation.

 

[Nathanael]

I wonder if it'd make any sense, if possible, to have a few sleepers to attach on an overnight run each way. Des Moines is a six-hour or so bus ride on the interstate, and Omaha is eight to nine hours. There may be enough of a market for sleepers on the route to justify it, but I'm not sure. (Plus, if the train is faster, then it may also not make sense.)

Not really; the Des Moines-Chicago market just doesn't seem large enough, and the trip is just a bit too short. The California Zephyr already provides overnight service for Omaha/Chicago. However....

Once the daytime trains are running from Omaha to Chicago (including dealing with getting across the river to Omaha), what would make sense would be to reroute the California Zephyr from its current route through Creston, Osceola, Ottumwa, and Mt. Pleasant to this route through Des Moines, Iowa City, and the Quad Cities. (Sorry, locals. Of the four stops on the existing route, only Ottumwa has enough people to justify rail service, and the advantages of the other route are large.)

This would provide sleeper service *westward* from the Quad Cities, Iowa City, and Des Moines, as well as providing sleeper service eastward from Des Moines. The improved service from major cities in Iowa (as opposed to tiny cities) would provide more passengers. With people in Iowa using the multiple trains per day to Chicago, the awareness of train service would increase, probably increasing demand even more than the amount just from the improved station locations. The route's also 22 miles shorter but I'm not sure how much faster that will make it.

At that point, given current ridership trends, it would probably make sense to add a second Denver-Chicago train along the same route. (Well, given ridership patterns, ideally Glenwood Springs-Chicago, but that may be difficult because a siding has to be found and it has to be possible to service the train there.) A Denver Zephyr could leave Chicago in the evening and arrive Denver mid-day (Glenwood Springs in the evening); leave Denver mid-day (Glenwood Springs in the morning) and arrive Chicago in the morning. It would provide daylight service in Nebraska.

IIRC, the current California Zephyr can frequently fill extra cars between Denver and Chicago right now, but is usually not full from Glenwood Springs to Salt Lake. The better route through Iowa will increase demand and daytime service from Nebraska would add even more to demand. I therefore believe that there would be enough traffic to split off a separate Denver Zephyr. Of course, funding and rolling stock availability make this difficult, but who knows what things will look like by the time Iowa gets around to funding daytime service to Omaha. At that point the funding and rolling stock situations may make this look a lot more likely.

 

[jebr]

I wonder if it'd make any sense, if possible, to have a few sleepers to attach on an overnight run each way. Des Moines is a six-hour or so bus ride on the interstate, and Omaha is eight to nine hours. There may be enough of a market for sleepers on the route to justify it, but I'm not sure. (Plus, if the train is faster, then it may also not make sense.)

Not really; the Des Moines-Chicago market just doesn't seem large enough, and the trip is just a bit too short. The California Zephyr already provides overnight service for Omaha/Chicago. However....

The Zephyr currently doesn't provide true overnight service Omaha to Chicago. Eastward, it's 5:14 AM departure from Omaha, and 2:50 PM into Chicago. Other way it's 2:00 PM from Chicago, 10:55 PM into Omaha. That's not overnight service.

I do like the Denver Zephyr idea, though. Glenwood Springs, if done, would require double the equipment in order to make the times work. If we're doing that, I'd want to just have it go all the way to Salt Lake to offer an alternative Salt Lake - Denver run (or at least not a middle-of-the-night Salt Lake time.)

 

[afigg]

You know, I'll qualify my comments a bit further: I could see it happening if ridership just goes off in a tear. I think 800,000 and 1.3 million is the difference there...at that point, if you could get the $35-37 PPR that seems to be projected, you'd be looking at $47.1 million, which is probably more than enough to cover the cost of the service. And being honest, if you could through some miracle get Nebraska to cover an extension to Lincoln (which would, under such a result, probably add another 150-200k to the pile...but considering the likely low net cost there, it would probably cover its net expenses...and of course, if it would be a substantially profitable move you might get IA to spring for it), Lincoln+Omaha/Council Bluffs might actually be enough of a market to make that worth a shot...especially if traffic on I-80 truly gets bad like the projections seem to expect.

Still, those sorts of ridership numbers are going to require everything short of fairy dust to make happen.

The newspaper article is rather clear that the 1.3 million passenger forecast is based on 110 mph service. That should provide trip time faster than driving and competitive trip times for flying for what air travel market there is between Omaha, Des Moines, Iowa City (if there are any direct flights left). Of course, a 110 mph service is a long ways off given that the Iowa Republicans have blocked putting up $20 million in state matching funds to extend 79 mph class service to Iowa City.

Hopefully the balance of power in the state legislature has tipped enough so the next session, the legislature will appropriate the $20 million so the Iowa City extension project can get started. Once a Chicago - Iowa City 79 mph service is running, the next step in extending service to Des Moines should be easier. By then, oil prices may high enough that commercial air service to Des Moines is expensive and limited .

 

[Anderson]

I think if you're looking at a Denver Zephyr to run CHI-DEN via DSM, you might as well leave the California Zephyr as-is. As bad as it sounds, I'm not sure if the CZ could take the added demand east of Denver, and if you're adding a separate train on that run, you'd lose about 25-40k passengers by dropping that coverage. In the meantime, I'm not quite sure that DSM and the Quad Cities need two trains to Denver.

If you're only running one train, I agree that direct service to Des Moines should be the priority, but if you've got two (or more) trains and heavy corridor service on one of the lines, I see no reason that you couldn't run two lines and run a Thruway shuttle or through cars to connect Des Moines and the Quad Cities to the second line.

Edit: I know what you're saying...the article and the report seem to be in conflict, though, since I thought the DEIS seemed to cover 110 MPH. Still, it is quite possible that the leap from 90 MPH to 110 MPH would be enough to hit a tipping point in several of the intermediate markets (DSM-OMA, DSM-Quad Cities) and spike ridership.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

How about another train CHI-GJT?

 

[johnny.menhennet]

How about another train CHI-GJT?

In the untapped market thread I started awhile back, my #6 was what I think you'd be looking for

6) CHI-DEN. Needs more capacity for sure. I know at this point it's unrealistic to ask for a day train, given the sheer distance, albeit nice track. What would be nice would be an 10pm departure from CHI, leaving Omaha at 7am, Lincoln at 8am, arriving Denver at 3pm, then heading to Grand Junction arriving at 11pm. Not only would this provide an overnight ride from CHI to both Omaha and Denver, providing more capacity, it allows another frequency over the Rockies to accommodate and hopefully minimize the capacity demands currently straining the CZ. It would allow people to not miss a whole day travelling this section. Coming back, the consist could leave Grand Junction at 6am, arriving Denver at 1pm, it could get to Lincoln by 10:30pm, Omaha by 11:30pm, and then Chicago by 8:30am. Same reasons work for the frequency in the other direction.

 

[Swadian Hardcore]

How about another train CHI-GJT?

In the untapped market thread I started awhile back, my #6 was what I think you'd be looking for

6) CHI-DEN. Needs more capacity for sure. I know at this point it's unrealistic to ask for a day train, given the sheer distance, albeit nice track. What would be nice would be an 10pm departure from CHI, leaving Omaha at 7am, Lincoln at 8am, arriving Denver at 3pm, then heading to Grand Junction arriving at 11pm. Not only would this provide an overnight ride from CHI to both Omaha and Denver, providing more capacity, it allows another frequency over the Rockies to accommodate and hopefully minimize the capacity demands currently straining the CZ. It would allow people to not miss a whole day travelling this section. Coming back, the consist could leave Grand Junction at 6am, arriving Denver at 1pm, it could get to Lincoln by 10:30pm, Omaha by 11:30pm, and then Chicago by 8:30am. Same reasons work for the frequency in the other direction.

All right, that's exactly what I'm lokking for except maybe one hour earlier westbound and one hour later eastbound.