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The main thrust is likely to be southwards (to Lynchburg/Roanoke) instead of west at Charlottesville. That being said, since they do have tracks all the way to Clifton Forge there's always a chance that NS decides to be intransigent and VA decides that using the yard at Clifton Forge makes more sense (or that WV and CSX come to an agreement of some sort to run a train or two on that line in exchange for WV backing off on the Daily Cardinal).
Given the commercial state of the line in WV...CSX was talking about downgrading it and selling it to a short line... CSX probably wants WV to buy the line outright. I bet CSX is fine with a daily Cardinal as long as they do not have to maintain the track. It's like Raton.

The problem is the same as in New Mexico. There, the Democratic governor was ready to buy the line, and the next, Republican governor, cancelled the purchase. WV has been electing the sort of Republican who I cannot imagine buying the line. The state government would not even pay for MARC service, forced the cities to pay for most of it.
 
Norfolk Southern's lack of participation in a required study is likely why they didn't mention Bristol in the plans for expanded service in the state. Btw, what's taking NS so long to come to the table to negotiate with VA DRPT for service to Bristol?
It's complicated. On the one hand, NS doesn't want any more trains (beyond the Norfolk service that was agreed to) if they can help it. Hence the batch of trains terminating at RVM. Just as speculation on my part, but in the next decade or so, continued NS resistance might actually lead to sending another train or two to Newport News instead of Norfolk (since parking four trains in Richmond might actually present a logistical issue...I know they can handle three, but I don't know about the fourth since the plan has always been to run most of the trains to NPN/NFK).

On the other hand, Bristol is also way down the priority list. There's been a push for a train out there for a long time, but given the various other projects that are piling up it's been arguably losing priority over time.
 
As far as the former C&O line through WV I could see CSX doing to that line what NS did to the ex N&W through to Columbus OH and make it more of an intermodal route, that is invest in higher clearance and easing curves with longer sidings.
 
Export of thermal coal is dying too. It is official policy in both India and China to end coal imports. Furthermore, export to Asia from the east coast is not commercially viable.

About all China is doing is putting a cap on foreign imports, of 300 million tons. Their total coal consumption has increased the past few years, and is expected to continue rising next year. That said, the the majority of the imports are from southeast Asia, and the vast majority of their coal is mined domestically.

China does keep building coal power plants but is is for stupid reasons related to kickbacks from construction contractors, and many are not even operating, India stopped building them, as has nearly everyone else, and is now figuring out what order to shut them down in.
Actually, China's use of coal in power generation continues to grow, albeit at a slowing pace, and India plans to increase their coal-fired power capacity by almost a quarter in the next three years.
 
As far as the former C&O line through WV I could see CSX doing to that line what NS did to the ex N&W through to Columbus OH and make it more of an intermodal route, that is invest in higher clearance and easing curves with longer sidings.
The problem is that they've already invested in another route (the "Atlantic Gateway" project), which is the one that the Capitol Limited uses, for that purpose. They also have the Water Level Route, so the usual case for redundant routings is even a bit strained.


About all China is doing is putting a cap on foreign imports, of 300 million tons. Their total coal consumption has increased the past few years, and is expected to continue rising next year. That said, the the majority of the imports are from southeast Asia, and the vast majority of their coal is mined domestically.


Actually, China's use of coal in power generation continues to grow, albeit at a slowing pace, and India plans to increase their coal-fired power capacity by almost a quarter in the next three years.

So, about those Paris accords...
 
Export of thermal coal is dying too. It is official policy in both India and China to end coal imports. Furthermore, export to Asia from the east coast is not commercially viable.

China does keep building coal power plants but is is for stupid reasons related to kickbacks from construction contractors, and many are not even operating, India stopped building them, as has nearly everyone else, and is now figuring out what order to shut them down in.

You don't seem to know as much as you think you do about the coal business. The export business to Newport News and to Lamberts Point is met coal coming from southern West Virginia. It's not going away anytime soon... but feel free to stand in front of a coal train in Wyoming county to try to stop it.
 
You don't seem to know as much as you think you do about the coal business. The export business to Newport News and to Lamberts Point is met coal coming from southern West Virginia. It's not going away anytime soon... but feel free to stand in front of a coal train in Wyoming county to try to stop it.
Looks like you have a point:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1024848/us-steam-coal-exports/

Exports were declining, but it looks like they've gone right back up.
 
You don't seem to know as much as you think you do about the coal business. The export business to Newport News and to Lamberts Point is met coal coming from southern West Virginia. It's not going away anytime soon... but feel free to stand in front of a coal train in Wyoming county to try to stop it.
Oh, it's met coal? Well, that still has a business, yes. It's shrinking over the long term too, because DRI & electric arc furnaces are replacing the basic oxygen process. However, it's shrinking substantially more slowly and is more likely to swing with the economy.

I guess you don't know as much as you think you do about the coal business.
 
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As far as the former C&O line through WV I could see CSX doing to that line what NS did to the ex N&W through to Columbus OH and make it more of an intermodal route, that is invest in higher clearance and easing curves with longer sidings.

No chance. The line's got terrible geography for curve straightening and clearance increases, and it's such a twisty line anyway that it'll never be good for intermodal. In fact, to be blunt, it's a *bad route*. For passengers, it's good to stop at Charleston, WV, I guess, and it has nice scenery. But if I were CSX planning an intermodal line, I'd take the Capitol Limited route -- which is exactly what CSX is doing -- before I'd take the Cardinal's route.
 
About all China is doing is putting a cap on foreign imports, of 300 million tons. Their total coal consumption has increased the past few years, and is expected to continue rising next year. That said, the the majority of the imports are from southeast Asia, and the vast majority of their coal is mined domestically.

Yes. The foreign import cap will be reduced to zero over time, which is a deliberate plan to support coal mining jobs in China and to eliminate foreign dependence.

Actually, China's use of coal in power generation continues to grow, albeit at a slowing pace,
Even this is due to kickbacks and corruption, which happen a lot in a non-market economy. It's cheaper not to use coal, but officials in the provincial government are getting kickbacks not only to build unprofitable coal plants, but to dispatch the overpriced coal plants. Pretty byzantine. It's also not sustainable; the sheer price advantage of wind and solar will eventually give the wind and solar developers more bribe money.

and India plans to increase their coal-fired power capacity by almost a quarter in the next three years.

The Indian plans are dead on arrival for financial reasons, as has been amply documented in many places. India is slightly more free market than China and the coal plants *cannot* compete. This is being recognized a bit at a time, but trust me, these new plants WILL NOT OPERATE.

In your citation, you've found one guy, the head of the state-run coal power plant operator, who wants to build more coal power plants. The trouble is this:
"Prasad said the growth rate in thermal capacity had outpaced electricity consumption over the last few years, resulting in stranded utility assets across the country."
Prasad, the pro-coal guy, blithely imagines that this is going to reverse. It isn't going to reverse, it's going to get more extreme. Solar & wind development in India is quite sufficient to cover all increases in electricity demand (to be specific, the growth of solar will exceed the growth of electricity demand by 2020 if not earlier), and there's just no place for more coal plants; if they build them they are building stranded assets from day one. Others in the government are recognizing this. Eventually Prasad will be kicked out for being dumb and wasting money.

Another detail here: he's planning to finish 5 GW of worthless coal plants in the next year; whereas there were 10 GW of solar put in in *2018*, and the installations are accelerating. A bunch of contract-breaking moves by state governments (simply refusing to pay under contracts they had previously agreed to) which spooked the solar industry suppressed solar development to a mere 7 GW in the March 2018-March 2019 period, but as that settles down, it'll come roaring back. It certainly won't convince any state government to *overpay* for coal, when they are trying to break contracts to get solar prices further below their already-below-coal prices.

Even beyond that, India has expressed an explicit goal of eliminating coal imports -- originally to be done by substituting domestic coal production, but they're changing their mind and cancelling planned coal mines due to oversupply.

Getting back to Virginia, the met coal market is currently glutted and prices are crashing. Traffic is going to be lighter and lighter.
 
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FYI:

Met Coal is Metallurgical coal used in making iron, and steel.

Steam Coal is burned to make electricity.

Literally burned to make steam to turn a turbine. Expensive to mine, expensive to transport, expensive to burn. Steam plants don’t start on a dime, you have to keep the fire going even at low need periods such as at night. That why it’s expensive to burn, then of course is the cost of the stuff coming out of the stack. Cancer cluster around coal plants are occurring. What causes the cancer has yet to be determined, but it’s know issue.
 
Steam coal is likely going away (for the very most part). On the other hand, grab a Snickers because industrial-use coal (whether used in steel production/refining or otherwise) isn't going anywhere for a while. Ditto the use of other hydrocarbon sources in industry (plastics leap to mind, as do lubricants).
 
Met coal is primarily used in the making of steel through the traditional pig iron / Bessemer process stages. (Basic oxygen process is a variant of Bessemer process.). This is obsolete, although there are still a lot of old plants. The cheaper, more efficient way to make steel is through the direct reduced iron process followed by the electric arc furnace (aka minimill). The cheapest way to make DRI uses methane, not coal. This means that in industry downturns, pig iron and Bessemer process plants close and met coal demand drops. In industry upturns, DRI plants and minimills open and methane demand rises. Coal demand does not.


So met coal demand is going straight down, forever. It is slower than the drop in thermal coal demand because solar farms and wind farms are super fast to build, whereas DRI plants and minimills are slower and more expensive to build, but it is happening.
 
CSX used the BBRR exclusively for empty coal car trains. There seem to have been fewer in recent months - I live 50 yards away. Wonder what this means. Those coal fired plants aren't going away any time soon.

I guess that just because CSX sold the RoW, this doesn't mean they instantly lose all access to the line.

AFAIK, CSX still runs some freight on some of the lines it sold for commuter rail in Florida, for example.

But as others have said, in the long term coal is in decline, and so the situation will not continue indefinitely.

Actually a smart move on CSX's part, as this effectively means they are no longer on the hook for doing maintenance for a line that in their view is in terminal decline.
 
The Indian plans are dead on arrival for financial reasons, as has been amply documented in many places. India is slightly more free market than China and the coal plants *cannot* compete. This is being recognized a bit at a time, but trust me, these new plants WILL NOT OPERATE.

In your citation, you've found one guy, the head of the state-run coal power plant operator, who wants to build more coal power plants. The trouble is this:
"Prasad said the growth rate in thermal capacity had outpaced electricity consumption over the last few years, resulting in stranded utility assets across the country."
Prasad, the pro-coal guy, blithely imagines that this is going to reverse. It isn't going to reverse, it's going to get more extreme. Solar & wind development in India is quite sufficient to cover all increases in electricity demand (to be specific, the growth of solar will exceed the growth of electricity demand by 2020 if not earlier), and there's just no place for more coal plants; if they build them they are building stranded assets from day one. Others in the government are recognizing this.
Also just because there is thermal capacity does not mean those plants are burning coal necessarily or exclusively. One of the big moves in India is to burn biomass pellets in an attempt to control particulate pollution that is the root cause of most of the atmospheric pollution. It has been traditional in India to burn unused parts of harvests in an uncontrolled manner. This is now being curbed and the materials that were burned in open fields is now being collected and pelletized in plants with controlled emissions and then these pellets are being used as fuel in thermal power plants. This replaces fuel that releases sequestered Carbon by fuel that releases non-sequestered Carbon, which is the next best thing to releasing no Carbon at all, and in addition it removes a whole bunch of particulates emissions. In addition to that Carbon sequestration is a big area of investigation, though in its infancy at present, but with very significant funding, though in all it makes Thermal plants even less economically viable. How does one exactly complete with free recurring cost of sunlight and wind?

And all this is in addition to a national push to exploit wind and solar as much as feasible. Heck even NTPC, the outfit that builds and runs Thermal power plants, is now building Solar capacity. Indian Railways is on a binge to install Solar capacity wherever they can find a surface to stick it on - places roofs of stations and other properties, on electrification poles along thousands of km or electrified rail route, you name it. Currently in the works is capacity of 1-2GW, more to come. Major deployment of storage technologies are also in the works, and not just batteries.

Anyone that believes that India will immensely increase use of Coal in the coming years is smoking some of the output from Coal I am afraid.
 
It has been traditional in India to burn unused parts of harvests in an uncontrolled manner. This is now being curbed and the materials that were burned in open fields is now being collected and pelletized in plants with controlled emissions and then these pellets are being used as fuel in thermal power plants. This replaces fuel that releases sequestered Carbon by fuel that releases non-sequestered Carbon, which is the next best thing to releasing no Carbon at all, and in addition it removes a whole bunch of particulates emissions.

I agree 100% about non-sequesetered carbon. Also, burning biomass basically eliminates the sulfur and heavy metal emissions that you get from coal, especially if you are running your chimney stacks without scrubbers. But depending on how efficiently you are burning stuff, biomass can cause as much carbon monoxide and particulate matter as coal, including the carcinogens.

After all, the number one cause of lung cancer worldwide is cigarette smoke, which is essentially biomass.
 
I agree 100% about non-sequesetered carbon. Also, burning biomass basically eliminates the sulfur and heavy metal emissions that you get from coal, especially if you are running your chimney stacks without scrubbers. But depending on how efficiently you are burning stuff, biomass can cause as much carbon monoxide and particulate matter as coal, including the carcinogens.
The more modern power plants where this is being done have scrubbers, sometimes pretty elaborate ones. That is the whole reason for expending the effort to collect the stuff from the field and bring them into the system that has scrubbers. They are needed both at the power plants and also the pelletizing plants. A lot of the ash actually comes out in the latter as things get converted into what are essentially charcoal pellets.
 
I haven't been as excited about this as others. I've asked around and I haven't received an answer but who will maintain and dispatch the territory? My guess is CSX will probably be involved. Additionally, is there an exclusive occupancy deal?
 
I think the exclusive occupancy question depends on the segment.

Also, I think I finally sussed an answer out as to what the deal is with the RF&P. It looks like the state took a 49% interest in the RF&P subsidiary of CSX alongside outright ownership of a few track portions.
 
I think the exclusive occupancy question depends on the segment.

Also, I think I finally sussed an answer out as to what the deal is with the RF&P. It looks like the state took a 49% interest in the RF&P subsidiary of CSX alongside outright ownership of a few track portions.

If there is an exclusive occupancy agreement, it may only apply to the new segment of tracks. If there are still trackage rights associated with the tracks sold to VA...and you have CSX dispatching and maintaining the territory, it may not be as good as a deal for Virginia as it is for CSX.
 
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