Lowest Fare - 5 months out?

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George K

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On Faceypage, someone commented that fares are usually at their lowest 5 months out. I was surprised by that comment, for it was my impression that the earlier you book, the lower the fare - as availability decreases prices rise.

That said, however, I found that my September trip on #6 got cheaper about a month ago (saved about 13K points). AGR was great about honoring the lower fare.

I guess this is why Amsnag is so useful, eh?
 
It’s been this way for a while. It used to be that fares were automatically released at low bucket when they first went on sale 11 months out, but for at least the past year that hasn’t been the case. In fact, I recently booked a trip to New Orleans for mid-June, and in the several days leading up until booking, I actually watched Crescent roomette prices drop to low bucket exactly five months out for each day.
 
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One thing that seems predictable about Amtrak is its unpredictability.  Take fares, for instance.  A quick check of low bucket fares on the Crescent confirms the previous post.  However, another check for the same thing on the Southwest Chief and Coast Starlight shows just the opposite.  The number of low bucket Roomette fares offered during each of the next 11 months (in chronological order) are:

•  Crescent: 6, 4, 6, 17, 25, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 in Dec 2019

•  The SWC: 4, 22, 20, 23, 22, 24, 26, 23, 26, 18 and 23 in Dec 2019

•  The   CS: 12, 17, 30, 30, 30, 11, 22, 21, 30, 20 and 15 in Dec 2019

The mystique of the magic "Five Month Low Bucket Deluge" may be alive and well in the Crescent but not in the SWC or CS.  It bears repeating - you can't always sometimes tell what you least expect to happen the most.  There's no reason NOT to look for low bucket fares as soon as they become available - 11 months hence.  
 
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I booked my September 2019 trip in a bedroom on the EB from Sea-Chi last month. It was only $763 and I paid with points about 26,000 for bedroom E. I dont know my bedroom bucket prices but that seemed good to me. Just for the heck of it I asked about another room letter (bedroom A) and it was 66,000 points! for the same day. I booked my 26,000 point trip and called back out of curiosity and talked to another AGR person who verified the differences. Found that strange. Now a month later Im waiting for the CL from Chi-Was and SM Was-Wpb to get a decent price in a bedroom on CL and a roomette on SM. No luck so far.
 
I booked my September 2019 trip in a bedroom on the EB from Sea-Chi last month. It was only $763 and I paid with points about 26,000 for bedroom E. I dont know my bedroom bucket prices but that seemed good to me. Just for the heck of it I asked about another room letter (bedroom A) and it was 66,000 points! for the same day. I booked my 26,000 point trip and called back out of curiosity and talked to another AGR person who verified the differences. Found that strange. Now a month later Im waiting for the CL from Chi-Was and SM Was-Wpb to get a decent price in a bedroom on CL and a roomette on SM. No luck so far.
You’re not supposed to pay any extra for a different room number on the same train. If you want A, call back and hope for an agent who does know this.
 
You’re not supposed to pay any extra for a different room number on the same train. If you want A, call back and hope for an agent who does know this.
I talked to 2 AGR employees and got same answer. Could have been a glitch but when I book that type of thing happens from time to time. Had them back up a day and both rooms were same price. Its why I ask about different room numbers or letters if pricing is out of the ordinary. I look online and AmSnag first then call. And I always keep an eye out for lower fares as summer goes on.  Saved a bunch over the years.
 
You’re not supposed to pay any extra for a different room number on the same train. If you want A, call back and hope for an agent who does know this.
I’d love to see this in writing because I have had multiple agents disagree.  
 
I guess the best answer is...maybe. It seems to depend on the train and which accommodation you’re looking to book. Niemi24s posted about roomette pricing availability, which shows one side. But if you look at say bedrooms on the SWC, low bucket fares will only be available within 5 months. That being said, those fares only seem to only be a viable option during the low season. This scenario also seems to be true for bedrooms on the CZ. 

So I believe the best answer is, if low bucket wasn’t available at 11 months, then check at 5 months. You might get lucky. 
 
So I believe the best answer is, if low bucket wasn’t available at 11 months, then check at 5 months. You might get lucky. 
So if you don't find a low bucket 11 months out and don't look again for another 6 months (or at the intervening 6 months), that means I've got a better chance of finding a low bucket when you're not looking or booking!!

Perfect!   :rolleyes:
 
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So I believe the best answer is, if low bucket wasn’t available at 11 months, then check at 5 months. You might get lucky. 
So if you don't find a low bucket 11 months out and don't look for another 6 months (or at the itervening 6 months), that means I've got a better chance of finding a low bucket when you're not looking or booking!!

Perfect!   :rolleyes:
From your data and mine, it seems that depending on the train/accommodation, low buckets are either first released 11 months out, or five months out. Since it appears that those are the only two ways in which low buckets are released, I agree with F900 that it likely won't make any difference to keep on checking after the 11 month mark, if no low buckets have appeared after a few days. I mean, it obviously won't do any harm to check, but from where I'm standing, it really doesn't seem worth it to just keep on checking that far out.
 
 I agree with F900 that it likely won't make any difference to keep on checking after the 11 month mark, if no low buckets have appeared after a few days.
Two experiences:

1) I booked the California Zephyr (EMY-CHI) 11 months after travel date. 4 months later, I saw that the fare had dropped. I called AGR and I was able to snag the lower fare, saving about 13K points (bedroom).

2) I booked CONO for a trip this coming March. I booked it in September. Yesterday, the fare dropped by $130 (bedroom again).

Seems like there's really no pattern - just gotta keep checking.
 
Two experiences:

1) I booked the California Zephyr (EMY-CHI) 11 months after travel date. 4 months later, I saw that the fare had dropped. I called AGR and I was able to snag the lower fare, saving about 13K points (bedroom).

2) I booked CONO for a trip this coming March. I booked it in September. Yesterday, the fare dropped by $130 (bedroom again).

Seems like there's really no pattern - just gotta keep checking.
Sounds like what happened there is that someone cancelled (or changed) their Bedroom ticket, so the price dropped due to increase in availability.
 
To reinforce George K's conclusion in his last paragraph, above, here's the result of three more eleven month low bucket Roomette searches added to the three in Post #3:

•  Crescent: 6, 4, 6, 17, 25, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 in Dec 2019

•  SWC: 4, 22, 20, 23, 22, 24, 26, 23, 26, 18 and 23 in Dec 2019

•   CS: 12, 17, 30, 30, 30, 11, 22, 21, 30, 20 and 15 in Dec 2019

•  CONO: 10, 18, 23, 30, 30, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 in Dec 2019

•  448 LSL: 17, 10, 13, 4, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 in Dec 2019

•  The EB: 8, 7, 30, 27, 2, 0, 0, 2, 25, 24 and 24 in Dec 2019

Analyze these six sets of numbers very carefully and if you see a pattern in them, you're a shoo-in for the Nobel Prize.
 
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To reinforce George K's conclusion in his last paragraph, above, here's the result of three more eleven month low bucket Roomette searches added to the three in Post #3:

•  Crescent: 6, 4, 6, 17, 25, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 in Dec 2019

•  SWC: 4, 22, 20, 23, 22, 24, 26, 23, 26, 18 and 23 in Dec 2019

•   CS: 12, 17, 30, 30, 30, 11, 22, 21, 30, 20 and 15 in Dec 2019

•  CONO: 10, 18, 23, 30, 30, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 in Dec 2019

•  448 LSL: 17, 10, 13, 4, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 in Dec 2019

•  The EB: 8, 7, 30, 27, 2, 0, 0, 2, 25, 24 and 24 in Dec 2019

Analyze these six sets of numbers very carefully and if you see a pattern in them, you're a shoo-in for the Nobel Prize.


Crescent: 6, 4, 6, 17, 25, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 in Dec 2019
Five months out "rule" clearly applies there.

•  SWC: 4, 22, 20, 23, 22, 24, 26, 23, 26, 18 and 23 in Dec 2019
Doesn't seem to apply here.

CS: 12, 17, 30, 30, 30, 11, 22, 21, 30, 20 and 15 in Dec 2019
Also doesn't seem to apply here.

CONO: 10, 18, 23, 30, 30, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 in Dec 2019
Definitely applies here.

448 LSL: 17, 10, 13, 4, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 in Dec 2019
Definitely applies here.

EB: 8, 7, 30, 27, 2, 0, 0, 2, 25, 24 and 24 in Dec 2019
Doesn't apply here.

So the sense I'm getting is that on the eastern trains, you will generally find the cheapest fares less than five months out, and on the western trains, it doesn't seem to have any bearing.

Nobel, please! :D
 
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