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Anderson

Brightline Ridership Number-Crunching and Analysis

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I've decided to make a separate thread to host my blathering about Brightline's ridership statistics (such as I can generate them) and not overwhelm the main thread. Some notes to start:

Each Brightline train, at present, contains the followjng
Car 1: 48 Select seats, 1 wheelchair slot
Car 2: 32 Smart seats, 32 SmartPlus seats, 2 wheelchair slots
Car 3: 64 Smart seats, 2 wheelchair slots
Car 4: 56 Smart seats, 2 wheelchair slots

Totals:
-152 Smart seats
-32 SmartPlus seats
-48 Select seats
-7 wheelchair slots
--Overall total: 239 seats and slots (232 for purposes of my analysis)

Unless or until I can get someone to help me mount a program on a test harness to run checks, I have to basically use a clicker on the Brightline website and go through each day's trains to get a sense of ridership. With about 14-16 trains per day, this represents 84-96 separate checks I have to make for a full day of trains. A single run-through therefore takes about an hour, especially since on a packed train I may need to count Smart 2-3 times to be comfortable with the count. This means that I am not going to turn around and bother with the wheelchair spaces (I am ignoring them for my purposes). It also means that, in the vast majority of cases, I am only going to check Palm Beach-Miami or vice-versa, since checking to/from Fort Lauderdale would triple the workload. In some cases I may try to make a note of extra sales on a train between the Miami/Palm Beach departure and the sales cutoff for Fort Lauderdale. For example, on one train yesterday morning (the southbound 0700) I noted that an additional twelve seats were sold FLL-MIA after the train left West Palm.

Some things I have observed, on what is thus far a sample size of one day imperfectly observed:
-Somewhere around 30% of tickets yesterday were "walk-up" sales, being sold in the 60-90 minutes before a train departs. This tends to be a little bit lower for peak trains (e.g. peak hours in the main direction of flow) but higher for off-peak trains. Day-of sales tend to be higher for trains later in the day as well (no shock there), in at least one case exceeding 50%.

-Load factors yesterday were reasonably healthy at rush hour. Outside of rush hour...not so much. Rush hour trains seem to have load factors in the 45-70% range in the peak direction, just under 20% in the reverse-peak direction, and often 5-10% in the off hours. I observed some even lower numbers, but per the walkup ticket situation they likely came in a bit higher than I saw. Overall load factor was probably about 13-15% (I technically observed 11.4% northbound and 13.5% southbound [1], but as noted above I also probably missed out on about 100 ticket sales from my count within the methodology I was following.

--I may well have missed out on another 50-100 due to my methodology not being able to fully pick up either last-minute sales out of Fort Lauderdale or any cases where a seat is sold both Miami-Fort Lauderdale and Fort Lauderdale-Palm Beach (or vice-versa). The former is likely to show up in a lot of cases; the latter is probably only a notable concern at rush hour (particularly heading south, since I presume that Fort Lauderdale is a net-pickup station SB and a net-discharge station NB).

-There are some cases where large blocks of seats sell out together, quite often in Car 4. I do not know if that is because of group sales, automatic sales in the system, or if there are "phantom sales" showing up.

 

[1] The southbound 0530 train did not run yesterday.

Edit: Explanation of charts:
-Each line is a departure from one of the origin stations (West Palm for southbound, Miami for northbound).
-I've used "F" to indicate Select, "W" to indicate SmartPlus, and "Y" to indicate Smart. This is based on airline coding practices (since being able to use a single letter makes the chart cleaner).

As further explanation, I will generally confine the data on a given day to a single post, even if I ultimately post 2-3 sets of data in here. For days I cover (which won't be all days), I'll try to have a "final set" (which will necessarily be incomplete) and at least one full "snapshot set" (usually taken between 2200 and 0400 the night before). I may occasionally keep another set from a day or two before as well, particularly if I think traffic is going to be particularly heavy on a given day.

Edited by Anderson

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Observation set:
18 Sep 18, late-night check (circa 0300):

 

Southbound, 18 Sep 18:
0600:  1 F,  2 W, 15 Y
0700:  7 F,  3 W, 52 Y
0815:  5 F,  4 W, 37 Y
0915:  3 F,  2 W,  7 Y
1015: 10 F,  4 W,  9 Y
1215:  3 F,  4 W,  9 Y
1415:  3 F,  1 W,  8 Y
1600:  3 F,  2 W,  7 Y
1700:  1 F,  0 W, 19 Y
1800:  3 F,  0 W, 13 Y
1900:  0 F,  0 W,  2 Y
2000:  0 F,  2 W, 53 Y
2100:  6 F,  0 W,  3 Y
All:  45 F, 24 W, 234 Y


Northbound, 18 Sep 18:
0713:  4 F,  2 W, 18 Y
0813:  0 F,  2 W, 12 Y
0913:  0 F,  3 W,  2 Y
1013:  2 F,  1 W,  7 Y
1213:  5 F,  3 W,  7 Y
1413:  9 F,  1 W,  9 Y
1613:  3 F,  6 W, 80 Y
1713:  8 F,  2 W, 31 Y
1813:  4 F,  4 W, 31 Y
1913:  2 F,  0 W,  4 Y
2013:  0 F,  1 W,  1 Y
2113:  1 F,  0 W,  1 Y
2213:  0 F,  0 W,  6 Y
2313:  0 F,  0 W,  3 Y
All:  38 F, 25 W, 212 Y

 

Observation set: 18 Sep 18, overnight set as amended with day-of observations:

0600  1 F,  2 W,  24 Y (last minute)
0700  8 F,  3 W,  73 Y (last minute)
0815  6 F,  4 W,  41 Y (partial update)
0915  3 F,  2 W,   7 Y (overnight)
1015 10 F,  4 W,   9 Y (overnight)
1215  3 F,  4 W,   9 Y (overnight)
1415  3 F,  1 W,   8 Y (overnight)
1600  8 F,  7 W,  20 Y (last minute/recollection)
1700  1 F,  2 W,  26 Y (last minute/FLL-MIA)
1800  8 F,  3 W,  19 Y (last minute)
1900  1 F,  2 W,   2 Y (checked 1745)
2000  0 F,  3 W,  64 Y (checked 1745)
2100  7 F,  0 W,   8 Y (checked 1745)

All: 59 F, 37 W, 310 Y (new tally)
All: 45 F, 24 W, 234 Y (overnight tally)
All: 14 F, 13 W,  76 Y (additional sales)

===== ===== ===== ===== =====

0713  4 F,  2 W,  33 Y (last minute)
0813  1 F,  2 W,  12 Y (partial update)
0913  0 F,  3 W,   2 Y (overnight)
1013  2 F,  1 W,   7 Y (overnight)
1213  5 F,  3 W,   7 Y (overnight)
1413  9 F,  1 W,   9 Y (overnight)
1613 13 F,  8 W, 110 Y (last minute/recollection)
1713 13 F,  4 W,  70 Y (last minute)
1813  6 F,  9 W,  63 Y (last minute)
1913  3 F,  2 W,  10 Y (checked 1745)
2013  0 F,  2 W,   2 Y (checked 1745)
2113  1 F,  0 W,   4 Y (checked 1745)
2213  1 F,  1 W,   9 Y (checked 1745)
2313  0 F,  2 W,   5 Y (checked 1745)

All: 58 F, 40 W, 273 Y (new tally)
All: 38 F, 25 W, 212 Y (overnight tally)
All: 20 F, 15 W,  61 Y (additional sales)

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Observation set: 19 Sep 18, late night:

Southbound, 19 Sep 18
0530  1 F,  1 W,   8 Y  Last check: 0030
0600  1 F,  1 W,  16 Y  Last check: 0033
0700  1 F,  2 W,  41 Y  Last check: 0035
0815  5 F,  6 W,  87 Y  Last check: 0037
0915  7 F, 21 W,  37 Y  Last check: 0041
1015  6 F,  6 W,  29 Y  Last check: 0043  
1215  3 F,  9 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0045
1415  1 F, 11 W,  29 Y  Last check: 0047
1600  4 F,  4 W,  16 Y  Last check: 0049
1700  2 F,  8 W,  22 Y  Last check: 0050
1800  2 F,  4 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0051
1900  0 F,  8 W,   2 Y  Last check: 0053
2000  0 F,  0 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0054
2100  0 F,  0 W,   0 Y  Last check: 0055
All: 33 F, 81 W, 309 Y

Northbound, 19 Sep 18
0713  1 F,  0 W,  22 Y  Last check: 0105
0813  0 F,  0 W,  13 Y  Last check: 0107
0913  0 F,  1 W,  15 Y  Last check: 0109
1013  3 F, 17 W,  63 Y  Last check: 0118
1213  1 F,  5 W,  27 Y  Last check: 0128
1413  5 F, 12 W,  78 Y  Last check: 0131
1613  7 F, 24 W,  47 Y  Last check: 0133
1713  3 F,  0 W,  34 Y  Last check: 0134
1813  3 F,  6 W,  35 Y  Last check: 0136
1913  0 F,  1 W,   7 Y  Last check: 0138
2013  1 F,  0 W,   2 Y  Last check: 0140
2113  1 F,  0 W,   2 Y  Last check: 0141
2213  0 F,  0 W,   3 Y  Last check: 0142
2313  0 F,  4 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0144
All: 25 F, 70 W, 352 Y

Follow-up note 1: Usually, trains "vanish" ten minutes prior to departure. The 0530 did so from the website 21 minutes out, as I was going to check up on it. Quite odd.

 

Final observations from today:

Southbound, 19 Sep 18
0530  1 F,  1 W,   8 Y  Last check: 0030
0600  3 F,  1 W,  22 Y  Last check: 0549
0700  1 F,  2 W,  63 Y  Last check: 0649
0815 10 F,  6 W, 105 Y  Last check: 0804
0915  7 F, 21 W,  39 Y  Last check: 0708
1015  6 F,  6 W,  29 Y  Last check: 0710
1215  3 F,  9 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0045
1415  1 F, 11 W,  29 Y  Last check: 0047
1600  9 F,  6 W,  38 Y  Last check: 1549
1700  8 F, 17 W,  37 Y  Last check: 1632
1800  7 F,  4 W,  27 Y  Last check: 1542
1900 12 F,  8 W,  14 Y  Last check: 1840
2000  0 F,  0 W,  20 Y  Last check: 1829
2100  0 F,  1 W,  13 Y  Last check: 1830
All: 68 F, 93 W, 453 Y  (2200)
All: 61 F, 90 W, 437 Y  (1600)
All: 33 F, 81 W, 309 Y  (Overnight)

Northbound, 19 Sep 18
0713  4 F,  0 W,  31 Y  Last check: 0702
0813  2 F,  0 W,  19 Y  Last check: 0742
0913  0 F,  1 W,  15 Y  Last check: 0109
1013  3 F, 17 W,  63 Y  Last check: 0118
1213  1 F,  5 W,  27 Y  Last check: 0128
1413  5 F, 12 W,  78 Y  Last check: 0131
1613 17 F, 27 W, 102 Y  Last check: 1602
1713  8 F,  2 W,  82 Y  Last check: 1702
1813  5 F,  5 W,  63 Y  Last check: 1802
1913  1 F,  3 W,  16 Y  Last check: 1835
2013  1 F,  2 W,  17 Y  Last check: 1959
2113  2 F,  0 W,   6 Y  Last check: 1529
2213  2 F,  0 W,  10 Y  Last check: 2150
2313  1 F,  6 W,  11 Y  Last check: 2153
All: 52 F, 80 W, 540 Y  (2300)
All: 43 F, 75 W, 471 Y  (1600)
All: 25 F, 70 W, 352 Y  (Overnight)

Discussion:
Direct observation on Wednesday is of 1286 tickets sold, as follows:

-Southbound: 614
-Northbound: 672

-120 Select (9.3%)
-173 SmartPlus (13.5%)
-993 Smart (77.2%)

My best estimate is that I missed out on between 150 and 200 sales due to not being online (based on overall ticketing patterns). I also suspect that I may have missed another 100-150 seats that were double-sold and/or sold from Fort Lauderdale after booking closed out of the origin station. I tend to err towards the middle on missed-out last-minute sales and on the higher end for intermediate destination sales. Still, the overall ticket sales range is betwee 1286 (a safe hard floor) and 1636; zeroing in, I would put it between 1400 and 1600.

Edited by Anderson

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I suspect F is Select, W is Smart with service pack and Y is bare Smart.

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That's correct. Let me note that in the initial post.

(With an airline, F is First, W is often used for "economy comfort" or something similar, and Y is for regular economy; were Brightline to add a "basic economy" product of some sort, that would be E, and another premium product would likely get J)

Edited by Anderson

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Report for 20 Sep 18:

Southbound 20 Sep 18
0530  1 F,  1 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
0600  2 F,  2 W,  14 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
0700 11 F,  5 W,  54 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
0815 10 F,  3 W,  13 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
0915  3 F,  8 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1015  2 F,  5 W,  11 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1215  4 F,  5 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1415  9 F,  1 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1600  5 F,  4 W,  11 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1700  0 F,  2 W,  15 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1800  4 F,  1 W,  72 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1900  0 F,  1 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
2000  0 F,  0 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
2100  0 F,  0 W,   0 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
All: 51 F, 38 W, 217 Y


Northbound 20 Sep 18
0713  4 F,  2 W,  17 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
0813  5 F,  6 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
0913  1 F,  0 W,   3 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1013 12 F,  0 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1213  2 F,  1 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1413  6 F,  9 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1613  4 F,  6 W,  19 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1713  5 F,  1 W,  91 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1813  3 F,  5 W,  24 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
1913  2 F,  0 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
2013  0 F,  1 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
2113  1 F,  3 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
2213  0 F,  0 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
2313  0 F,  0 W,   3 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
All: 45 F, 34 W, 202 Y

End-of-day tallying:

Southbound 20 Sep 18
0530  1 F,  1 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
0600  3 F,  2 W,  23 Y  Last check: 0547
0700 12 F,  6 W,  72 Y  Last check: 0649
0815 11 F,  6 W,  38 Y  Last check: 0751
0915  7 F,  8 W,  31 Y  Last check: 0904
1015  3 F,  5 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0852
1215  7 F,  8 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0855
1415  9 F,  1 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0857
1600 10 F,  9 W,  17 Y  Last check: 1531
1700  2 F,  5 W,  34 Y  Last check: 1708 (FLL-MIA)
1800  5 F,  2 W,  79 Y  Last check: 1759 (FLL-MIA)
1900 10 F,  0 W,   9 Y  Last check: 1834
2000  0 F,  0 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
2100  0 F,  0 W,   0 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
All: 80 F, 53 W, 336 Y


Northbound 20 Sep 18
0713  7 F,  3 W,  24 Y  Last check: 0703
0813  5 F,  6 W,   7 Y  Last check: 0654
0913  1 F,  1 W,  13 Y  Last check: 0901
1013 13 F,  0 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0907
1213  3 F,  1 W,   8 Y  Last check: 0910
1413  6 F,  9 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0912
1613  8 F,  8 W,  43 Y  Last check: 1535
1713  8 F,  8 W, 123 Y  Last check: 1703
1813  4 F, 10 W,  88 Y  Last check: 1800
1913  4 F,  0 W,  25 Y  Last check: 1858
2013  0 F,  1 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/19)
2113  2 F,  5 W,  13 Y  Last check: 2102
2213  5 F,  0 W,  19 Y  Last check: 2156
2313  0 F,  1 W,   8 Y  Last check: 2206
All: 66 F, 53 W, 388 Y
Edited by Anderson

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Report for 21 Sep 18:

Southbound 21 Sep 18
0530  1 F,  0 W,   2 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
0600  2 F,  0 W,  11 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
0700  4 F,  0 W,  23 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
0800  2 F,  6 W,  15 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
0900  4 F,  2 W,   2 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1000  0 F,  2 W,  11 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1100  1 F,  0 W,   8 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1200  1 F,  0 W,   2 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1400  4 F,  1 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1500  2 F,  0 W,   0 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1600  3 F,  5 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1700 13 F,  9 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1800  0 F, 11 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1900  3 F, 11 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
2000  0 F,  0 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
2100  2 F,  0 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
     42 F, 47 W, 117 Y


Northbound 21 Sep 18
0713  2 F,  1 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
0813  1 F,  0 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
0913  0 F,  0 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1013  0 F,  0 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1113  4 F,  0 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1213  2 F,  3 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1313  1 F,  0 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1413  2 F,  2 W,   8 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1613  7 F,  1 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1713  6 F,  0 W,  33 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1813  1 F,  0 W,  17 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
1913  2 F,  4 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
2013  2 F,  0 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
2113  0 F,  1 W,   0 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
2213  2 F,  0 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
2313  0 F, 13 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0230 (09/19)
     32 F, 25 W, 119 Y

21 Sep 18, night before tally:

Southbound 21 Sep 18
0530  2 F,  1 W,   7 Y  Last check: 2245 (09/20)
0600  8 F,  0 W,  20 Y  Last check: 2248 (09/20)
0700  8 F,  0 W,  38 Y  Last check: 2250 (09/20)
0800  4 F,  7 W,  36 Y  Last check: 2252 (09/20)
0900  6 F,  6 W,   9 Y  Last check: 2256 (09/20)
1000  2 F,  2 W,  15 Y  Last check: 2257 (09/20)
1100  2 F,  3 W,  12 Y  Last check: 2300 (09/20)
1200  1 F,  0 W,   6 Y  Last check: 2312 (09/20)
1400  4 F,  1 W,   8 Y  Last check: 2314 (09/20)
1500  3 F,  3 W,  10 Y  Last check: 2315 (09/20)
1600  1 F,  9 W,  18 Y  Last check: 2318 (09/20)
1700 16 F,  9 W,  20 Y  Last check: 2320 (09/20)
1800  5 F,  9 W,  15 Y  Last check: 2326 (09/20)
1900  4 F, 12 W,   6 Y  Last check: 2327 (09/20)
2000  0 F,  0 W,   1 Y  Last check: 2329 (09/20)
2100  2 F,  0 W,   7 Y  Last check: 2330 (09/20)
     68 F, 62 W, 228 Y


Northbound 21 Sep 18
0713  3 F,  1 W,  15 Y  Last check: 2218 (09/20)
0813  1 F,  0 W,   9 Y  Last check: 2221 (09/20)
0913  0 F,  0 W,  16 Y  Last check: 2223 (09/20)
1013  0 F,  1 W,   9 Y  Last check: 2232 (09/20)
1113  2 F,  2 W,   5 Y  Last check: 2335 (09/20)
1213  2 F,  4 W,   7 Y  Last check: 2337 (09/20)
1313  3 F,  0 W,   6 Y  Last check: 2339 (09/20)
1413  5 F,  4 W,  13 Y  Last check: 2340 (09/20)
1613 11 F,  4 W,  25 Y  Last check: 2342 (09/20)
1713  5 F,  1 W,  46 Y  Last check: 2344 (09/20)
1813  6 F,  0 W,  29 Y  Last check: 2346 (09/20)
1913  3 F,  3 W,   2 Y  Last check: 2347 (09/20)
2013  2 F,  0 W,   3 Y  Last check: 2349 (09/20)
2113  0 F,  1 W,   0 Y  Last check: 2350 (09/20)
2213  2 F,  0 W,   6 Y  Last check: 2356 (09/20)
2313  0 F,  9 W,  21 Y  Last check: 2357 (09/20)
     45 F, 30 W, 191 Y

End-of-day report:

Southbound 21 Sep 18
0530  2 F,  1 W,   7 Y  Last check: 2245 (09/20)
0600  8 F,  0 W,  20 Y  Last check: 2248 (09/20)
0700  8 F,  0 W,  38 Y  Last check: 2250 (09/20)
0800  4 F,  7 W,  36 Y  Last check: 2252 (09/20)
0900  6 F,  6 W,   9 Y  Last check: 2256 (09/20)
1000  2 F,  2 W,  15 Y  Last check: 2257 (09/20)
1100  6 F,  3 W,  30 Y  Last check: 1112 (FLL-MIA)
1200  7 F,  8 W,  17 Y  Last check: 1148
1400 13 F,  2 W,  38 Y  Last check: 1349
1500  3 F,  6 W,  12 Y  Last check: 1110
1600  2 F, 10 W,  25 Y  Last check: 1145
1700 24 F,  8 W,  48 Y  Last check: 1728 (FLL-MIA)
1800 12 F,  6 W,  35 Y  Last check: 1749
1900 11 F, 12 W,  13 Y  Last check: 1847
2000  4 F,  1 W,   8 Y  Last check: 1940
2100  4 F,  1 W,  28 Y  Last check: 2049
    116 F, 73 W, 379 Y


Northbound 21 Sep 18
0713  3 F,  1 W,  15 Y  Last check: 2218 (09/20)
0813  1 F,  0 W,   9 Y  Last check: 2221 (09/20)
0913  0 F,  0 W,  16 Y  Last check: 2223 (09/20)
1013  0 F,  1 W,   9 Y  Last check: 2232 (09/20)
1113  3 F,  1 W,  13 Y  Last check: 1100
1213  3 F,  7 W,  14 Y  Last check: 1159
1313  7 F,  0 W,  35 Y  Last check: 1301
1413  9 F, 23 W,  49 Y  Last check: 1400
1613 12 F,  6 W,  39 Y  Last check: 1207
1713 12 F,  6 W,  97 Y  Last check: 1702
1813  6 F,  1 W,  53 Y  Last check: 1801
1913  8 F,  5 W,  17 Y  Last check: 1804
2013  7 F,  2 W,  13 Y  Last check: 1947
2113  7 F,  4 W,  69 Y  Last check: 2055 (Last car blocked?)
2213  4 F,  7 W,  15 Y  Last check: 2200
2313  4 F,  2 W,  19 Y  Last check: 2242
     86 F, 66 W, 482 Y

Overall notes:
-As indicated, I did not get any readings in the morning.
-I also missed out on several readings at the start of the afternoon rush.
-The 2113 saw a massive swing in ridership between my check around 1730 and the final check at 2055, centering around the whole back car being indicated as not available. This creates a possible "error" of 50-odd passengers (and helpls explain a major increase in the difference between ridership in each direction at the proverbial last minute). I'm always worried when a car is fully sold-out...it's just too "neat" for my tastes. I'm even more worried when it seems to happen in the last few hours before departure, with a car that was mostly showing as empty before.

Recorded ridership is 568 southbound and 634 northbound (so 1202 total). I probably missed out on about 100-150 riders in the morning (based on past history) and another 50 or so in the afternoon. Accounting for turnover and missed late purchases out of Fort Lauderdale (and being cautious about that major sale on the 2113 train), I think a ridership estimate of 1400-1500 feels about right.

Edited by Anderson

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Just as an update, but I am looking at Brightline's pricing for tomorrow, and for Miami-West Palm Beach there are three trains (0813, 1213, and 2113) which are showing Smart/SmartPlus at $15/20 instead of $20/25, respectively.

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Southbound 22 Sep 18
0700  3 F,  0 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0113 (09/21)
0900  1 F, 16 W,  82 Y  Last check: 0116 (09/21)
1100 32 F, 24 W,  48 Y  Last check: 0118 (09/21)
1300  7 F,  3 W,  43 Y  Last check: 0120 (09/21)
1500  9 F, 16 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0121 (09/21)
1700 16 F, 18 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0123 (09/21)
1900  8 F, 10 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0124 (09/21)
2100  0 F,  4 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0126 (09/21)
     76 F, 91 W, 215 Y


Northbound 22 Sep 18
0913 10 F,  2 W,  30 Y  Last check: 0132 (09/21)
1113  8 F, 19 W,  27 Y  Last check: 0134 (09/21)
1313  1 F, 10 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0136 (09/21)
1513  7 F, 10 W,  75 Y  Last check: 0139 (09/21)
1713 12 F, 29 W,  40 Y  Last check: 0141 (09/21)
1913 19 F,  1 W,  28 Y  Last check: 0146 (09/21)
2113  2 F, 14 W,   7 Y  Last check: 0148 (09/21)
2358  9 F, 13 W,  11 Y  Last check: 0150 (09/21)
     68 F, 98 W, 224 Y

Quick commentary: The SB 1100 train shows the first example I've seen of variable pricing for Select ($45 instead of $40), and I'm tending to see at least one train in each direction per day on most days sporting a $15 Smart fare (generally in the off-peak hours). SmartPlus is locked to Smart+$5.

 

Also, I am a bit surprised...despite having about half of the trains on Saturday vs Friday, 148 more seats have been sold for Saturday's trains than Friday's trains at present, and about 390 more than at the same relative point in time (e.g. 0200 Wednesday/Thursday night for Friday, 0200 Thursday/Friday night for Saturday). Clearly there's a bit more advance purchasing going on for weekends than weekdays (though the cause is up for discussion). Load factor for Saturday is already around 21% overall (though it's a bit below 19% in Select and Smart, it's close to 40% in SmartPlus).

 

Night-before tally:

Southbound 22 Sep 18
0700   5 F,   0 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0003
0900   6 F,  21 W, 115 Y  Last check: 0006
1100  41 F,  32 W,  75 Y  Last check: 0008 [1]
1300   6 F,  12 W,  49 Y  Last check: 0011
1500  23 F,  18 W,  33 Y  Last check: 0013
1700  20 F,  18 W,  38 Y  Last check: 0015
1900  13 F,  10 W,  21 Y  Last check: 0017
2100   0 F,   4 W,  22 Y  Last check: 0018
     114 F, 115 W, 363 Y


Northbound 22 Sep 18
0913  19 F,   4 W,  55 Y  Last check: 0022
1113  16 F,  24 W,  67 Y  Last check: 0024
1313   5 F,  16 W,  17 Y  Last check: 0026
1513   9 F,  15 W,  89 Y  Last check: 0028
1713  16 F,  30 W,  67 Y  Last check: 0030
1913  20 F,   6 W,  61 Y  Last check: 0032
2113   6 F,  14 W,  16 Y  Last check: 0033
2313  13 F,  11 W,  19 Y  Last check: 0035 [2]
     104 F, 120 W, 391 Y

[1] SmartPlus not available for purchase; based on last night's numbers, SmartPlus is sold out.

[2] Train was listed as a 2358 departure last night but 2313 tonight; not sure if the former was a mistake or there was a timetabling experiment.

 

Total ridership indicated is 592 southbound and 615 northbound. Load factor overall is 32.5% going into the day of travel, breaking down to:

-Smart: 31.0%

-SmartPlus: 45.9%

-Select: 28.4%

 

There are several sections that are candidates for selling out tomorrow. If anyone would like to, I would appreciate some load checks throughout the day. I will try to run checks on my end, but I won't have all-day availability...and it's going to be interesting to see how close some of the more-crowded trains come to capacity.

 

Day-of notes:

-I didn't get a booking snapshot of the 1100 train out of WPB (I got pulled into another matter), but Select was showing at $60 (instead of the usual $40). Load FLL-MIA, however, was 44 F 29 W 131 Y as of 1103. Ticket price FLL-MIA in Select was $50 FLL-MIA (or nearly $2/seat-mile). I indicate this as a note because I don't want to obliterate evidence of what was still a sellout WPB-MIA when I tried to start my load check.

Southbound 22 Sep 18
0700   5 F,   0 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0003
0900   6 F,  21 W, 115 Y  Last check: 0006
1100  44 F,  29 W, 131 Y  Last check: 1103 [1]
1300  21 F,  29 W,  98 Y  Last check: 1324 [2]
1500  29 F,  27 W,  81 Y  Last check: 1444
1700  35 F,  32 W, 102 Y  Last check: 1649 [5]
1900  21 F,  32 W,  79 Y  Last check: 1849 [7]
2100   2 F,  18 W,  53 Y  Last check: 2048
     163 F, 188 W, 669 Y  (circa 2230)


Northbound 22 Sep 18
0913  19 F,   4 W,  55 Y  Last check: 0022
1113  18 F,  24 W, 117 Y  Last check: 1058
1313  17 F,  30 W,  70 Y  Last check: 1328 [3]
1513  34 F,  32 W, 152 Y  Last check: 1502 [4]
1713  34 F,  32 W, 132 Y  Last check: 1702 [6]
1913  24 F,  17 W, 141 Y  Last check: 1902
2113  11 F,  24 W,  62 Y  Last check: 2058
2313  16 F,  11 W,  46 Y  Last check: 2229
     173 F, 174 W, 775 Y  (circa 2230)

[1] FLL-MIA. Load from previous night was 41 F 32 W 75 Y.

[2] FLL-MIA

[3] FLL-PBI

[4] SmartPlus was sold out. Smart was showing seats at $20, but refusing to show seats, so either the system was allowing wheelchair bookings but not regular ones or there's a glitch.

[5] SmartPlus showing availability at $25, but refusing to assign seats as of 1558. See [4].

[6] SmartPlus showing availability at $25, but refusing to assign seats as of 1630. As of 1558 only one seat was available. See [4].

[7] SmartPlus showing availability at $25, but refusing to assign seats as of 1843. As of 1838 only two seats were available. See [4].

 

General notes:

Pricing:

Smart: $15 for the first 10% of seats or thereabouts, $20 for the rest.

SmartPlus: Prevailing Smart fare plus $5.

Select: $40 for about the first 50% of seats (24). $45 for the next 40% (19). $60 for the last 10% (5).

 

Day-of updates:

-I was unable to properly log the first few trains of the morning. Obviously, with the afternoon trains, there's still booking time to be had. The 1PM wave of trains also got flubbed, but the FLL-originating data paints a pretty solid picture.

-A near-final "hard log" (I'm not certain I'll get a final fix on the 2313 train at the moment) produces the following load factors:

Northbound:

-Smart: 775 (of 1216), 63.7%

-SmartPlus: 174 (of 256), 68.0%

-Select: 173 (of 384), 45.1%

-Total: 1122 (of 1856) 60.5%

Southbound:

-Smart: 669 (of 1216), 55.0%

-SmartPlus: 188 (of 256), 73.4%

-Select: 163 (of 384), 42.4%

-Total: 1020 (of 1856), 55.0%

 

Grand total: 2142 (of 3712), or 57.7%

 

Note that these numbers are almost assuredly low due, in particular, to not getting a record of the 9AM wave (7AM may or may not have significant ridership). Accounting for those errors, I'm guessing that overall load factor is going to come in around 62-65% for the day (I figure overall ridership settled somewhere around 2300-2450, depending on assumptions about turnover at FLL and late-purchased tickets there...2300 for near-zero turnover, 2450 if you presume about 150 seats turned over; I suspect turnover would have been more of this than "normal" given the sheer loads, but there was also less room for late sales becaue of those same loads).

-Also, as a general thought, but it seems quite possible that Brightline is going to want to look into laying on some additional trains on Saturdays. Considering that the first and last trains for the day are going to have a decent amount of empty space, there's a practial limit in terms of load factor.

Edited by Anderson

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Southbound 23 Sep 18
0700  0 F,  1 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0046 (09/22)
0900  2 F,  3 W,  31 Y  Last check: 0049 (09/22)
1100  5 F, 11 W,  45 Y  Last check: 0050 (09/22)
1300  1 F, 11 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0052 (09/22)
1500  4 F,  2 W,  15 Y  Last check: 0054 (09/22)
1700  5 F, 14 W,  62 Y  Last check: 0056 (09/22)
1900  4 F,  8 W,  16 Y  Last check: 0057 (09/22)
     21 F, 50 W, 179 Y

Northbound 23 Sep 18
0913  4 F,  1 W,  32 Y  Last check: 0102 (09/22)
1113 16 F, 20 W,  52 Y  Last check: 0104 (09/22)
1313  2 F,  9 W,  19 Y  Last check: 0105 (09/22)
1513  8 F,  3 W,  15 Y  Last check: 0106 (09/22)
1713  7 F, 14 W,  36 Y  Last check: 0108 (09/22)
1913  2 F,  0 W,  20 Y  Last check: 0109 (09/22)
2113  2 F,  0 W,   3 Y  Last check: 0000 (09/22)
     41 F, 47 W, 177 Y

Thoughts:

-Sunday ridership is tracking at about 67% of Saturday's. This isn't terribly shocking given results on other transit systems (e.g. MARC runs fewer trains on Sunday than Saturday on the Penn Line).

Southbound 23 Sep 18
0700   1 F,   1 W,   6 Y  Last check: 2320 (09/22)
0900   8 F,  10 W,  61 Y  Last check: 2322 (09/22)
1100  17 F,  29 W,  65 Y  Last check: 2324 (09/22)
1300   2 F,  13 W,  20 Y  Last check: 2336 (09/22)
1500   5 F,   6 W,  28 Y  Last check: 2338 (09/22)
1700  15 F,  17 W,  95 Y  Last check: 2340 (09/22)
1900   4 F,  11 W,  30 Y  Last check: 2342 (09/22)
      52 F,  87 W, 305 Y

Northbound 23 Sep 18
0913   3 F,  19 W,  49 Y  Last check: 2345 (09/22)
1113  22 F,  32 W,  87 Y  Last check: 2346 (09/22)
1313   4 F,  11 W,  39 Y  Last check: 2349 (09/22)
1513   8 F,  14 W,  37 Y  Last check: 2352 (09/22)
1713   9 F,  22 W,  56 Y  Last check: 2353 (09/22)
1913   4 F,   8 W,  27 Y  Last check: 2354 (09/22)
2113   3 F,   0 W,   9 Y  Last check: 2356 (09/22)
      53 F, 106 W, 304 Y

Thoughts: Ridership is now tracking at 75% of Saturday's ridership. It is also outpacing any weekday recorded so far at this point (though it is only barely ahead of Wednesday the 19th).

 

Southbound 23 Sep 18
0700   1 F,   1 W,   6 Y  Last check: 2320 (09/22)
0900   8 F,  10 W,  61 Y  Last check: 2322 (09/22)
1100  34 F,  32 W, 152 Y  Last check: 1049 [1]
1300  11 F,  24 W,  45 Y  Last check: 1243
1500  14 F,  22 W,  84 Y  Last check: 1449
1700  22 F,  23 W, 134 Y  Last check: 1638
1900   7 F,  25 W,  88 Y  Last check: 1833
      97 F, 137 W, 570Y

Northbound 23 Sep 18
0913   3 F,  19 W,  49 Y  Last check: 2345 (09/22)
1113  27 F,  32 W, 121 Y  Last check: 1101
1313  11 F,  19 W,  92 Y  Last check: 1256
1513  22 F,  18 W, 144 Y  Last check: 1501
1713  18 F,  32 W, 140 Y  Last check: 1640 [2]
1913   6 F,  25 W,  54 Y  Last check: 1858
2113   7 F,   7 W,  25 Y  Last check: 2031
      94 F, 152 W, 625 Y

[1] SmartPlus is sold out. Smart is showing availability at $20 but system refuses to sell tickets.

[2] SmartPlus is sold out. Smart is showing availability at $20 but system refuses to sell tickets. SmartPlus previously showed as sold out.

Edited by Anderson

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Anderson, great work in tallying all of that! Very interesting results-- I'm particularly surprised that the weekend ridership is so much higher yet the frequencies are much lower; as you've alluded to, it seems like they would benefit from more weekend trains.

 

I've been trying to replicate Brightline's forecasted financial statements using the various reports out there today; once I get that in a better position, I'll share the Google Sheets link on here. From my preliminary analyses, Brightline is aiming for a ~62% load factor and ~$1.02 per passenger mile. This is (I'm sure not coincidentally) very similar to Acela's 61% load factor and $0.92 per seat mile last year. Brightline also has some ramp up assumptions in their reports so I'm expecting that I can derive some estimate of load factor and revenue per seat mile within the initial stages as well to see how it compares with your sample findings.

 

Though Brightline doesn't need a 60%+ load factor to succeed, it does seem like they are still a far cry from reaching those types of numbers on a consistent basis.

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Guessing at revenue on this is a bit hard due to the special offers (the 2-for-1 in particular), affinity discounts (10% NARP/RPA and military), and weekday commuter tickets (which I don't have a guess at pricing on).

However, let's try to tease this out:
Select:
-Presume all seats are sold at $40/seat, no turnover.

SmartPlus:
-Presume that 60% of seats are sold at $25, 40% at $20.
-Presume that half of seats are sold under the 2-for-1 offer (so 1/4 of sales are eliminated).
-Add 10% for turnover/late sales.

Smart:
-Presume that 80% of seats are sold at $20, 20% at $15.
-Presume that half of seats are sold under the 2-for-1 offer and/or as reduced-price commuter tickets, effecting the same result (25% of sales are eliminated).
-Add 10% for turnover/late sales.

Running these numbers for Saturday, I would further adjust by adding 100 Smart, 25 SmartPlus, and 20 Select sales (trying to guess at the sales I missed on three early trains) would give us the following figures:

-Select: 356 seats sold (163 SB, 173 NB, and 20 adjusted)
--Revenue is $14,240.
-SmartPlus: 387 seats sold (188 SB, 174 NB, and 25 adjusted)
--Revenue is $7,343.
-Smart: 1544 seats sold (669 SB, 775 NB, and 100 adjusted)
--Revenue is $24,202.

Overall revenue would be $45,785 for the day. RASM would be $0.1622.

===== ===== ===== ===== =====

Obviously, I'm trying to work out what sorts of presumptions to make...part of why I'm happy to put as much data as I can harvest up here is that I'd like help in adjusting these inputs so I can actually get a feel for ticket prices, revenues, etc.

Something to bear in mind is that if Saturday's load factors were replicated across the month, ridership would be about 114k for the month. Instead, what we have thus far is:
-Tuesday:
--Hard count: 117 F, 77 W, 583 Y
---Notes: I missed a few mote trains, number-wise, but I did get solid rush hour data.

-Wednesday:
--Hard count: 120 F, 173 W, 993 Y
---Notes: I got both rush hours, but missed out on a slab of mid-morning and mid-afternoon trains. Smaller adjustment needed than usual.

-Thursday:
--Hard count: 146 F, 106 W, 724 Y
---Notes: Morning rush good. Botched up part of the afternoon rush and had to substitute FLL-MIA for the SB trains. Also did not get close-in checks on trains starting after 0900 through just before 1600.

-Friday:
--Hard count: 202 F, 139 W, 861 Y
---Notes: Completely missed the morning rush. Afternoon/evening coverage was good except for missing the 1600 trains.

-Saturday:
--Hard count: 336 F, 362 W, 1444 Y
---Notes: Missed checks on the first three trains of the day. Partly fumbled two more SB checks and had to sub FLL-MIA.

-Sunday:
--Hard count: 191 F, 289 W, 1195 Y
---Notes: Missed the same trains as Saturday but got reasonably good checks on all of the others.

-Grand total (6 days):
--Hard count: 1112 F, 1146 W, 5800 Y
---Without adjustment, this is 8,058 tickets sold. Since September has five weekends, this corresponds pretty nicely to 1/5 of the month (10 weekend days, 20 weekdays, albeit with an asterisk on Labor Day), so you would expect monthly ridership to be around 40,000.
---With the adjustments (most of which I noted during the week), I think you could reasonably add about 1000 to this count, maybe 1500. That would put monthly ridership in the ballpark of 45-50k. Given that some of this is based on weekdays without all 16 round-trips, and given that the one odd day (Labor Day) would presumably behave as a weekend (and thus have, presumably, an extra 500-1000 riders) then I would err towards the high side. Still, getting on towards 50k riders per month is at least steady progress from the 30k/month we would have been looking at back in late spring.

---Again, I have no idea whether I simply drew odd days for this; I'll try to keep some observations coming as best I can (but I can tell you, this is exhausting and time-consuming to round up so I can't do it every day).

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Southbound 25 Sep 18
0530  0 F,  0 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0400
0600  2 F,  4 W,  16 Y  Last check: 0402
0700  4 F,  4 W,  37 Y  Last check: 0410
0800  9 F,  6 W,  29 Y  Last check: 0415
0900  6 F,  0 W,  17 Y  Last check: 0417
1000  2 F,  1 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0419
1100  0 F,  4 W,  18 Y  Last check: 0420
1200  3 F,  2 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0421
1400  3 F,  0 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0422
1500  4 F,  0 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0424
1600  3 F,  1 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0425
1700  5 F,  0 W,  72 Y  Last check: 0427 [1]
1800  2 F,  0 W,  18 Y  Last check: 0428
1900  1 F,  0 W,   3 Y  Last check: 0429
2000  0 F,  0 W,   3 Y  Last check: 0431
2100  1 F,  1 W,   2 Y  Last check: 0432
     45 F, 23 W, 259 Y

Northbound 25 Sep 18
0713  4 F,  2 W,  23 Y  Last check: 0434
0813  3 F,  2 W,   9 Y  Last check: 0436
0913  1 F,  3 W,   2 Y  Last check: 0438
1013  8 F,  1 W,  18 Y  Last check: 0439
1113  0 F,  4 W,   3 Y  Last check: 0440
1213  3 F,  0 W,  16 Y  Last check: 0442
1313  0 F,  2 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0443
1413  6 F,  2 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0444
1613  7 F,  3 W,  33 Y  Last check: 0446
1713  6 F,  1 W,  34 Y  Last check: 0447
1813  4 F,  0 W,  29 Y  Last check: 0449
1913  1 F,  0 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0450
2013  3 F,  0 W,  61 Y  Last check: 0452 [2]
2113  1 F,  1 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0455
2213  0 F,  1 W,   7 Y  Last check: 0456
2313  2 F,  0 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0457
     49 F, 22 W, 258 Y

[1][2] It looks like there's a large group doing a round-trip based on the two large blocks of adjacent seats sold out.

General observation: Ridership is roughly tracking in line with last Tuesday.

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Southbound 27 Sep 18
0530  1 F,   0 W,  11 Y  Last check: 0519
0600  2 F,   2 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0502
0700  6 F,   5 W,  56 Y  Last check: 0505
0800  2 F,   6 W,  37 Y  Last check: 0508
0900  2 F,   0 W,   8 Y  Last check: 0510
1000  8 F,   2 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0514
1100  6 F,   1 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0524
1200  5 F,   7 W,  13 Y  Last check: 0527
1400  2 F,   4 W,  24 Y  Last check: 0530
1500 11 F,   6 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0535
1600  3 F,   5 W,  18 Y  Last check: 0537
1700 11 F,   5 W,  21 Y  Last check: 0541
1800  1 F,   0 W,  22 Y  Last check: 0542
1900  0 F,   1 W,  74 Y  Last check: 0544
2000  1 F,   0 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0545
2100  0 F,   3 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0547
     61 F,  47 W, 333 Y


Northbound 27 Sep 18
0713  7 F,   2 W,  27 Y  Last check: 0551
0813  1 F,   2 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0557
0913  0 F,   4 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0559
1013  8 F,   1 W,   7 Y  Last check: 0601
1113  0 F,   8 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0603
1213  0 F,   3 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0604
1313  0 F,   0 W,  18 Y  Last check: 0606
1413  6 F,   3 W,  11 Y  Last check: 0624
1613  7 F,   7 W,  26 Y  Last check: 0627
1713  2 F,   3 W,  38 Y  Last check: 0631
1813  5 F,   3 W,  96 Y  Last check: 0635
1913  1 F,   0 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0638
2013  0 F,   5 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0641
2113  4 F,   3 W,  13 Y  Last check: 0642
2213  0 F,   1 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0644
2313  3 F,   2 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0645
     44 F,  47 W, 288 Y

Note: Fares have all been dropped back to $15/$20/$30 on all trains. We will see if there's still an attempt to maximize yield for more crowded trains.

 

End-of-day report:

Southbound 27 Sep 18
0530  1 F,  0 W,  11 Y  Last check: 0519
0600  3 F,  2 W,  22 Y  Last check: 0549
0700  7 F,  4 W,  76 Y    Last check: 0649
0800  2 F,  6 W,  37 Y  Last check: 0508
0900  2 F,  0 W,   8 Y  Last check: 0510
1000  8 F,  2 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0514
1100  6 F,  1 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0524
1200  5 F,  7 W,  13 Y  Last check: 0527
1400  7 F,  3 W,  36 Y  Last check: 1338
1500 18 F, 15 W,  20 Y  Last check: 1449
1600 10 F, 13 W,  28 Y  Last check: 1549
1700  8 F, 12 W,  50 Y  Last check: 1649
1800  5 F,  4 W,  32 Y  Last check: 1652
1900 11 F,  2 W,  89 Y  Last check: 1849
2000  1 F,  0 W,   7 Y  Last check: 1904
2100  0 F,  6 W,   5 Y  Last check: 1905
     94 F, 77 W, 456 Y


Northbound 27 Sep 18
0713  9 F,  3 W,  32 Y  Last check: 0659
0813  1 F,  2 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0557
0913  0 F,  4 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0559
1013  8 F,  1 W,   7 Y  Last check: 0601
1113  0 F,  8 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0603
1213  0 F,  3 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0604
1313  0 F,  0 W,  18 Y  Last check: 0606
1413  5 F,  4 W,  24 Y  Last check: 1408 [FLL-PBI]
1613 17 F,  9 W,  71 Y  Last check: 1602
1713 10 F,  7 W,  67 Y  Last check: 1702
1813  7 F,  4 W, 118 Y  Last check: 1802
1913  9 F,  2 W,  30 Y  Last check: 1901
2013  1 F,  6 W,  11 Y  Last check: 1858
2113 10 F,  1 W,  38 Y  Last check: 1439
2213  0 F,  3 W,   5 Y  Last check: 1441
2313  3 F,  2 W,   1 Y  Last check: 1443
     80 F, 59 W, 451 Y
Edited by Anderson

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Southbound 27 Sep 18
0530  1 F,  0 W,  11 Y  Last check: 0519
0600  2 F,  2 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0502
0700  6 F,  5 W,  56 Y  Last check: 0505
0800  2 F,  6 W,  37 Y  Last check: 0508
0900  2 F,  0 W,   8 Y  Last check: 0510
1000  8 F,  2 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0514
1100  6 F,  1 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0524
1200  5 F,  7 W,  13 Y  Last check: 0527
1400  2 F,  4 W,  24 Y  Last check: 0530
1500 11 F,  6 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0535
1600  3 F,  5 W,  18 Y  Last check: 0537
1700 11 F,  5 W,  21 Y  Last check: 0541
1800  1 F,  0 W,  22 Y  Last check: 0542
1900  0 F,  1 W,  74 Y  Last check: 0544
2000  1 F,  0 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0545
2100  0 F,  3 W,   4 Y  Last check: 0547


Northbound 27 Sep 18
0713  7 F,  2 W,  27 Y  Last check: 0551
0813  1 F,  2 W,  10 Y  Last check: 0557
0913  0 F,  4 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0559
1013  8 F,  1 W,   7 Y  Last check: 0601
1113  0 F,  8 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0603
1213  0 F,  3 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0604
1313  0 F,  0 W,  18 Y  Last check: 0606
1413  6 F,  3 W,  11 Y  Last check: 0624
1613  7 F,  7 W,  26 Y  Last check: 0627
1713  2 F,  3 W,  38 Y  Last check: 0631
1813  5 F,  3 W,  96 Y  Last check: 0635
1913  1 F,  0 W,  12 Y  Last check: 0638
2013  0 F,  5 W,   5 Y  Last check: 0641
2113  4 F,  3 W,  13 Y  Last check: 0642
2213  0 F,  1 W,   6 Y  Last check: 0644
2313  3 F,  2 W,   1 Y  Last check: 0645
Note: Fares have all been dropped back to $15/$20/$30 on all trains. We will see if there's still an attempt to maximize yield for more crowded trains.

 

 

Not to get off topic, but how are you able to post these tables? Is there some hidden tool or something?

Edited by cpotisch

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It’s not hidden, the code tag switches to a monospace font that is easy to align into tables (it also blocks text in the block from being converted into formatting or the like. It’s used like this:

 


[code] Put table stuff here. [/code]

[b] Ordinarily, this would be converted to bold.[/b]

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It’s not hidden, the code tag switches to a monospace font that is easy to align into tables (it also blocks text in the block from being converted into formatting or the like. It’s used like this:

[code] Put table stuff here. [/code]

[b] Ordinarily, this would be converted to bold.[/b]

Thank you muchly. :)

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2nd quarter ridership and revenue results are out.

 

https://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/business/brightline-passenger-counts-increase-still-remain-well-below-projections/C2goHqPyH4HZ4OqSoAGATM/

 

I know Anderson has projected around 40-45k riders for September. It seems Q2 was around 35k per month with limited service to Miami. So it appears his numbers are probably quite accurate, if not a bit on the low side.

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So, let's look at my projections/estimates from the other thread:

 

"Our ridership increased by 42 percent in the last quarter and revenue increased by 72 percent. We are on the right trajectory."

That would put ridership at about 106,200 [A] and revenue at $1,142,000 .

Actual ridership came in at 106,090 (I would call that a rounding error on my estimate). Actual revenue came in at $1.54m for Q2, so I was WAY off there...but I think that's a question of interpretation as well. PPR was up 63.5% (and if I stick with my exclusion of the Miami opening weekend, outside of THAT it was up somewhere in the ballpark of 78.5%), so I'm going to guess that the "revenue" figure referred to yield per passenger.

I suspect my ridership numbers in June are about right, but I'll need to revise my June revenue estimate. What I developed at the time was as follows:

 

Looking at the trend (and trying to control for Miami's opening weekend), my guess is that June's numbers are going to look something like this:
-Ridership: 40,000 (annual trend around 485,000)
-Revenue: $500,000 (annual trend around $6,100,000) to $540,000 (annual trend around $6,600,000)
-PPR: $12.50 (assuming a 40% bump per above) to $13.40 (assuming a 50% bump per above).

Absent a monthly breakout, my best guess is that ridership was at that level, perhaps a hair lower. Revenue was (necessarily) higher. Full-quarter PPR was $14.52, and adjusting for Miami's opening weekend (as before, excluding 9500 riders and in this case an estimated $100k in revenue) it was $15.84.

In light of this, I would estimate $15.00 as the low bar for June (really ignoring Miami's opening weekend and presuming only a modest skew towards the end for revenue) and put $20.00 as the high end (adjusting for Miami's opening weekend and basically presuming that April and the first part of May behaved like Q1). This would give a revenue range from $600,000 to $800,000 (annual trend between $7,200,000 and $9,600,000). These are still both quite far below the needed trend, but they're also a lot better than before. They're also slightly below what I estimated for last Saturday (my estimates there give a PPR of $20.02, but that's also on a day that had ticket sales running "hot" and forced me to estimate a significant amount of high-bucket sales). Put another way, I'm feeling quite comfortable with my estimations from last weekend.

Edit: I bumped the high end up a bit after checking some numbers. My estimate, for the record, is that $17.00-17.50 and $680,000-700,000 is probably a "most likely scenario" for June.

Edited by Anderson

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One other thing to break out: Brightline estimated $23.9m in revenue for the year, which would translate into just under $6.0m/quarter. Going to a chart, we get the following for Q1-Q3:

      Actual   Est.   %
Q1    $0.66m  $5.98m  11.05%
Q2    $1.45m  $5.98m  24.25%
Q3-L  $2.33m  $5.98m  38.96% (estimated)
Q3-M  $2.62m  $5.98m  43.81% (estimated)
Q3-H  $2.91m  $5.98m  48.72% (estimated)
Q3-VH $3.50m  $5.98m  60.28% (estimated)

Q3 is estimated on the basis of ridership of 40,000/month (low), 45,000/month (middle), 50,000/month (high), and 60,000/month (very high) at an average ticket price of $19. NB at these prices, Brightline would need about 102,600 riders in September to be on budget for revenue. With that being said, what (thin) evidence I am seeing shows ridership seeming to continue to rise through the month, so I wouldn't be surprised to see September end up on the higher end of my old projections. I do NOT expect to see it come in near the 60,000 end.

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One other thing to break out: Brightline estimated $23.9m in revenue for the year, which would translate into just under $6.0m/quarter. Going to a chart, we get the following for Q1-Q3:

      Actual   Est.   %
Q1    $0.66m  $5.98m  11.05%
Q2    $1.45m  $5.98m  24.25%
Q3-L  $2.33m  $5.98m  38.96% (estimated)
Q3-M  $2.62m  $5.98m  43.81% (estimated)
Q3-H  $2.91m  $5.98m  48.72% (estimated)
Q3-VH $3.50m  $5.98m  60.28% (estimated)
Q3 is estimated on the basis of ridership of 40,000/month (low), 45,000/month (middle), 50,000/month (high), and 60,000/month (very high) at an average ticket price of $19. NB at these prices, Brightline would need about 102,600 riders in September to be on budget for revenue. With that being said, what (thin) evidence I am seeing shows ridership seeming to continue to rise through the month, so I wouldn't be surprised to see September end up on the higher end of my old projections. I do NOT expect to see it come in near the 60,000 end.

 

 

The Brightline estimate is based on full service starting in Q4 of 2017. So I would take any and all revenue and ridership estimates for 2018 with a grain of salt. See page 393 of this PAB document filed last year.

ER1107449-ER866075-ER1266758.pdf

Edited by Brian_tampa

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