Philly Amtrak Fan
Engineer
Normally I try to give you positive pieces of studies for new Amtrak routes but I found news on All Aboard Ohio's Twitter (https://twitter.com/AllAboardOhio). They retweeted the following:
"Trump's budget is said to closely align to the one proposed by @Heritage. Here are their recommendations for @FTA_DOT & @Amtrak."
They have a picture of Heritage's stance on Amtrak although it is shrunk to fit a small box. I did found the following link from Heritage which is the exact text on the retweet: http://budgetbook.heritage.org/transportation/eliminate-grants-national-rail-passenger-service-corporation-amtrak/
The writer mentions Amtrak as a monopoly for (intercity) passenger rail. She says probably what most conservatives would believe, privatize. I don't think anyone here can dispute Amtrak's monopoly status although I would believe that isn't because Amtrak/Congress is stifling competition in the industry but that the industry just isn't profitable enough for any private company. The proposal is obviously outdated since the first year they suggested cutting the operating subsidies was FY 2016.
I then got to thinking how bad will it be if Amtrak does kill operating subsidies? Amtrak is up to covering "94% of its operating costs with ticket sales and other revenues" (http://media.amtrak.com/2016/11/amtrak-delivers-strong-fy-2016-financial-results/). Clearly the LD system will have to be cut or passed on to the states but the question is how much?
Page C-2 lists the deficit to be $228.8 million in FY 2015 but Page C-1 shows the deficit to be cut to $77.0 million in FY 2016. I'm kind of skeptical the deficit in FY 2016 was about 1/3 that of FY 2015 and Amtrak's press release said the "unaudited operating loss of $227 million, a reduction of $78 million over last year, and the lowest operating loss since 1973. " and those numbers don't agree with Pages C-1 and C-2.
Of those deficits, the deficit from state supported trains was $149.3 million in FY 2015 and $63.3 million in FY 2016. If you count NEC Surplus - LD Deficit only, the federal operating subsidy would have been $79.5 in FY 2015 and just $13.7 in FY 2016. If the true operating subsidy is really $13.7 million then cutting just one LD train would be enough to eliminate the operating subsidy. Even if it is the $79.5 million in FY 2015, that isn't many routes. If Amtrak cuts the "right" routes, the loss to the national Amtrak LD system will be minimal (unless of course your train is one of the train(s) that get cut). Who knows, maybe Amtrak can "blackmail" state(s) into picking up the operating costs of one or more LD trains and none of them will get cut while the operating subsidy is eliminated. I kind of doubt any routes can be passed on to private companies.
Now if Congress began "phasing out its capital subsidies over five years" then that could be catastrophic to Amtrak, especially if the Avelia Liberty train sets haven't been fully paid for.
"Trump's budget is said to closely align to the one proposed by @Heritage. Here are their recommendations for @FTA_DOT & @Amtrak."
They have a picture of Heritage's stance on Amtrak although it is shrunk to fit a small box. I did found the following link from Heritage which is the exact text on the retweet: http://budgetbook.heritage.org/transportation/eliminate-grants-national-rail-passenger-service-corporation-amtrak/
The writer mentions Amtrak as a monopoly for (intercity) passenger rail. She says probably what most conservatives would believe, privatize. I don't think anyone here can dispute Amtrak's monopoly status although I would believe that isn't because Amtrak/Congress is stifling competition in the industry but that the industry just isn't profitable enough for any private company. The proposal is obviously outdated since the first year they suggested cutting the operating subsidies was FY 2016.
I then got to thinking how bad will it be if Amtrak does kill operating subsidies? Amtrak is up to covering "94% of its operating costs with ticket sales and other revenues" (http://media.amtrak.com/2016/11/amtrak-delivers-strong-fy-2016-financial-results/). Clearly the LD system will have to be cut or passed on to the states but the question is how much?
Page C-2 lists the deficit to be $228.8 million in FY 2015 but Page C-1 shows the deficit to be cut to $77.0 million in FY 2016. I'm kind of skeptical the deficit in FY 2016 was about 1/3 that of FY 2015 and Amtrak's press release said the "unaudited operating loss of $227 million, a reduction of $78 million over last year, and the lowest operating loss since 1973. " and those numbers don't agree with Pages C-1 and C-2.
Of those deficits, the deficit from state supported trains was $149.3 million in FY 2015 and $63.3 million in FY 2016. If you count NEC Surplus - LD Deficit only, the federal operating subsidy would have been $79.5 in FY 2015 and just $13.7 in FY 2016. If the true operating subsidy is really $13.7 million then cutting just one LD train would be enough to eliminate the operating subsidy. Even if it is the $79.5 million in FY 2015, that isn't many routes. If Amtrak cuts the "right" routes, the loss to the national Amtrak LD system will be minimal (unless of course your train is one of the train(s) that get cut). Who knows, maybe Amtrak can "blackmail" state(s) into picking up the operating costs of one or more LD trains and none of them will get cut while the operating subsidy is eliminated. I kind of doubt any routes can be passed on to private companies.
Now if Congress began "phasing out its capital subsidies over five years" then that could be catastrophic to Amtrak, especially if the Avelia Liberty train sets haven't been fully paid for.
