Replying to Amtrak Official: Jacksonville-Miami rail going to happen

Amtrak was pretty clear a few years ago that three-a-week was a problem, an inefficient use of resources, and needed to end. But it doesn't mean that it makes sense to spend $200 million to go daily. If it cost $20 million, Amtrak might well do it.

I have been wondering for a while what amount of money would be asked by CSX and the Buckingham Branch for the *Cardinal* to go daily. (I would hope there would be no complaints west of Indianapolis or east of Charlottesville!) The projections back in the PIP in 2010 were that it would impact Amtrak's bottom line for the worse by $2.1 million / year (vs. $3 million / year for the Sunset/Eagle daily plan). ($400 million of that is increased staffing costs at staffed stations.) The numbers are probably more favorable now, with revenue per passenger up substantially (up by more than 10% in the last two years). The PIP did say that nothing could be done until more rolling stock was available, so I wouldn't expect to see anything until the new Viewliners are delivered. But after that, I wonder: Virginia is already spending some money on the Buckingham Branch, how much more would it take?

If Amtrak has $20 million available to spend in capital funds on LD route improvements. Much depends on what happens in the Re-authorization bill and the FY2014 appropriations. The administration asked for a lot of funding for passenger rail, including $800 million for the LD trains. Meanwhile Amtrak is asking for $2.65 billion in total. With the federal budget annual deficit falling even faster than forecast a few months ago, the politics of the deficit hawks/anti-spending crowd versus more investment in infrastructure crowd for the Fy14 budget are going to be interesting.

 

At the MWHSR meeting, according to the Trains Mag article, Boardman did have this to say about using NEC revenues to cover the losses on the LD trains: "But Boardman warned that paying back a $532 million loan used to purchase 70 new Siemens electric locomotives, formally unveiled last Monday in Sacramento, would mean that expanding Northeast Corridor revenues would not be available to help improve long-distance trains’ cost recovery." What Boardman had to say about VIA was also interesting....

 

As for the Buckingham Branch RR, the primary issue is the lack of sidings long enough over the 116 miles from Gordonsville to Clifton Forge for the 8000' long empty coal trains the CSX sends westbound on the BBRR. There was a new project line item added in the Virginia 6 year budget plan last year of $7 million for the North Mountain subdivision Siding Project split over FY13 & FY14. Now shifted to FY14 and FY15 in the FY14 draft 6 year budget plan that was just released. Have not found specifics on it,  but it appears that VA is providing funds to build a new long siding on the BBRR. But it could be VA FY15 or later before it is built. However this is way off-topic for Jacksonville to Miami topic.

Well, the issue with a "new LD train" at the moment is that...for a new Eastern LD train, you'd need about $25m in cars per set (or about $75-100m for the requisite sets).  Out west, it probably goes to $35m or so (or $210m for six sets).  Then Amtrak would need to acquire the "slots", which would probably get expensive again.  And then there's any operating deficit to deal with.

 

Now, let's turn things around: Assume that Amtrak is given the slots and the train can turn a substantial operating profit.  Then, Amtrak might consider it, but nothing is quite there yet from what I can tell.

Um, "$400 thousand of that"

Amtrak was pretty clear a few years ago that three-a-week was a problem, an inefficient use of resources, and needed to end. But it doesn't mean that it makes sense to spend $200 million to go daily. If it cost $20 million, Amtrak might well do it.

I have been wondering for a while what amount of money would be asked by CSX and the Buckingham Branch for the *Cardinal* to go daily. (I would hope there would be no complaints west of Indianapolis or east of Charlottesville!) The projections back in the PIP in 2010 were that it would impact Amtrak's bottom line for the worse by $2.1 million / year (vs. $3 million / year for the Sunset/Eagle daily plan). ($400 million of that is increased staffing costs at staffed stations.) The numbers are probably more favorable now, with revenue per passenger up substantially (up by more than 10% in the last two years). The PIP did say that nothing could be done until more rolling stock was available, so I wouldn't expect to see anything until the new Viewliners are delivered. But after that, I wonder: Virginia is already spending some money on the Buckingham Branch, how much more would it take?

afigg is right. 

 

Plus, in these hostile times, the best expansion will be longer consists, which will be possible for the Eastern trains with the new Viewliners coming up.  Hopefully the Superliner western and midwestern trains can get some indirect capacity increase by the Nippo bilevels and the new Talgos, which sometimes use Superliners to cover up shortages.

Dont shoot me for ressurecting an old thread but after reading the article in NewsWire the other day about Amtrak long distance service, It sounds as if Boardman is not interesting in expanding the LD network.  Kind of upsetting considering I was really looking forward to the FEC expansion of the Star and expected it to be a reality especially with that special inspection train being ran.  Also I know that All Aboard Flordia is in the works but personally I am an Amtrak and Amtrak rolling stock fan.
 
Article Quote:
Responding to a question about whether Amtrak would consider increasing frequencies on sold-out one-train-a-day routes like the Lake Shore Limited or Empire Builder, he simply said, “no.” Earlier, he mentioned that it’s not possible to spend $700 million – or even $200 million – for increasing the Sunset Limited to daily from tri-weekly service, because “with long-distance trains, the revenue doesn’t come back the way we need it to make those kind of investments.”

There is a good interview with Boardman, Amtrak's Boardman defends long-distance trains,  available at the Trains Magazine website, but it is only available to subscribers. Don't over interpret what he said. He was asked about doubling frequencies on LD routes and he said that won't happen (no equipment, would lose more money, etc). That has nothing to do with splitting the Silver Star at Jacksonville and running it down the FEC. That is not a new LD train, it would just be a re-route. One that, according to the PIP report, would increase revenue more than operating costs, so it would be a net plus. So, if the FEC and Florida work out an agreement on service over the FEC, a Silver Star split could still happen.

 

As for the rest of the interview, it is not that Boardman does not want to expand the LD system, it is that Amtrak can not do so without more funding from Congress. Right now, Boardman is fighting a defensive action to maintain the 15 current LD trains in the Amtrak re-authorization bill that is being worked on in Congress this year with a very hostile fraction to contend with in the House. But that is a discussion better left to a thread on the issue.

I was at Boardman's speech and he said that Amtrak is not a funding organization, but an operating one. If someone wants to come up with the money, Amtrak will operate it. Same thing with Sunset East. He said Congress asked Amtrak what it would cost to resume New Orleans-Jacksonville service. Amtrak studied the issue, came up with a cost and sent it to Congress. Since, Congress has been silent on the issue. So, there will be no new services, long or short distance, without funding from somebody. 

Dont shoot me for ressurecting an old thread but after reading the article in NewsWire the other day about Amtrak long distance service, It sounds as if Boardman is not interesting in expanding the LD network.  Kind of upsetting considering I was really looking forward to the FEC expansion of the Star and expected it to be a reality especially with that special inspection train being ran.  Also I know that All Aboard Flordia is in the works but personally I am an Amtrak and Amtrak rolling stock fan.
 

Article Quote:
Responding to a question about whether Amtrak would consider increasing frequencies on sold-out one-train-a-day routes like the Lake Shore Limited or Empire Builder, he simply said, “no.” Earlier, he mentioned that it’s not possible to spend $700 million – or even $200 million – for increasing the Sunset Limited to daily from tri-weekly service, because “with long-distance trains, the revenue doesn’t come back the way we need it to make those kind of investments.”

Cirdan, at this point in time you may very well be the closest to what is going on. Afterall some do remember these things after getting burned, and hold it against abstract concepts like Amtrak or UP even when the individuals involved have passed on. I have had to deal with such situations many times in business and it inevitably takes a while to resolve

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Interestingly, Boardman settled for a schedule change and reconsideration of daily service in 2014. I'm wondering, therefore, if there was some particular double-tracking project or something which was scheduled to be done in 2014. Colton Flyover is supposed to be done in 2014...

 

Either that or maybe it isn't UPRR as a whole that is against the daily service but some individuals and maybe Boardman is biding his time, speculating they may retire or move on to other positions. In the business world surprisngly many decisons are taken on gut feeling rather than on the basis of hard factual analysis. If folks want to believe something they can always somehow twist the facts to back up what they want to believe.