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Hurricane Michael


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#1 lordsigma

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 08:13 PM

Looking like yet another storm may be moving in to cause disruptions depending on storm track. I have an Auto Train round trip coming up which could be in jeopardy - first leg Thursday the 11th, second leg Friday the 19th....I wonder what my chances are of the train running - current track looks like there is a good possibility of widespread cancellations due to heavy rains.



#2 AutoTrDvr

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 08:41 PM

I'm gonna have to watch it carefully, as it could turn a little more to the right and put me right into it  As of now, I'm just barely out out of the cone. One tick to the right and I'd be right in it.



#3 jis

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 10:19 PM

Current prognostication is that it will most likely be a Category 2 Hurricane by the time it makes landfall somewhere in the Florida Panhandle and may remain a hurricane into Georgia.

#4 jis

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 07:53 AM

Now projections have been upped to possibly a Cat 3 at landfall. It will remain a Tropical Storm all across land - Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina and possibly Virginia before it exists to the Atlantic Ocean as a Tropical Storm. It will be a very fast mover, so total rainfalls won;t be anything like what came from Florence.

 

If this forecast holds it is very likely that the Atlantic Coast service will be affected leading upto Thursday and all day Thursday followed by the time needed to clean up the aftermath.

 

It is a very spread out system. We are already starting to see extreme outer band of clouds over us in Central Florida. We will probably get some amount of Tropical Force wind out of this. Jacksonville will get it worse than us, no matter what happens.


Edited by jis, 08 October 2018 - 09:48 AM.


#5 lordsigma

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 08:11 AM

Now projections have been upped to possibly a Cat 3 at landfall. It will remain a Tropical Storm all across land - Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina and possibly Virginia before it exists to the Atlantic Ocean as a Tropical Storm. It will be a very fast mover, so total rainfalls won;t be anything like what came from Florence.

 

If this forecast holds it is very likely that the Atlantic Coast service will be affected leading upto Thursday and all day Thursday followed by the time needed to clean up the aftermath.

I think it's fair to say I should assume cancellation on Thursday and prepare alternative travel plans. Will probably have to drive down and then hopefully they will be operating again by the time I head home so I don't have to drive both ways.


Edited by lordsigma, 08 October 2018 - 08:18 AM.


#6 Rail Freak

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 08:17 AM

:hi: Better SAFE,than SORRY!!!


Edited by Rail Freak, 08 October 2018 - 08:18 AM.

A Rookie No More! But Still A Lot Of Track To Travel !!!
Silver Meteor #97(6) & #98 (4), Silver Star #91 (2), Capitol Limited #29 & #30(6), Empire Builder #7,#8,#27(2) &#28(4) Coast Starlight #11 (6) & #14(5), California Zephyr #5 (2) & #6 (5), Cascades #506, City of New Orleans #58, #59 (2), South West Chief #3 (4), Lake Shore Limited #49, Maple Leaf #63, San Joaquin #714, Pacific Surfliner #774, Texas Eagle #422 (2), Cardinal #50, Crescent #19, Sunset Limited #1. Approx. 60,169 miles & 41 states!

 


#7 jis

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 10:42 AM

Impact now projected to be Wednesday for Florida and Georgia and Thursday for Carolinas and north. As of the 11am (108/18) Advisory 8 from NHC landfall will be at 120mph or higher somewhere in the Florida Panhandle late morning or early afternoon Wednesday. It is coming in as a broadly spread out storm with Tropical Force winds stretching as far out as 175-180 miles from its center.


Edited by jis, 08 October 2018 - 10:45 AM.


#8 chakk

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 11:25 AM

:hi: Better SAFE,than SORRY!!!


Yes. Obey Rule 108.

#9 pennyk

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 12:24 PM

It has been cloudy and a bit windy all morning in Orlando.  We just started getting rain bands.


Amtrak miles: 248,633; Routes: Silver Meteor, Champion, Silver Star, Auto Train, Capitol Limited, Empire Builder, Lakeshore Limited, Adirondack, Vermonter, Cardinal, California Zephyr, Coast Starlight, Texas Eagle, Missouri River Runner, Acela Express, Southwest Chief, Cascades, Crescent, City of New Orleans, Hiawatha Service, Maple Leaf, Keystone Service, NE Regional, Downeaster, Piedmont, Carolinian, Lincoln Service, Autumn Express 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, Empire Service, Sunset Limited, San Joaquin, Capitol Corridor, Pennsylvanian, Illinois Zephyr, Carl Sandburg, Ethan Allen Express, AEM-7 Excursion, Pacific Surfliner, Palmetto.  VIA miles: 4,584; Routes: The Canadian, Ocean; Alaska RR Denali Star: 356 miles


#10 JoeBas

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 01:10 PM

Impact now projected to be Wednesday for Florida and Georgia and Thursday for Carolinas and north. As of the 11am (108/18) Advisory 8 from NHC landfall will be at 120mph or higher somewhere in the Florida Panhandle late morning or early afternoon Wednesday. It is coming in as a broadly spread out storm with Tropical Force winds stretching as far out as 175-180 miles from its center.

 

I'm not buying on Michael.  I think it'll peak at 3 or 4 in the Gulf, but weaken as it turns north-northeast Tuesday into Wednesday (not that the NHC will actually show weakening while approaching the coast, mind you).  Go look up Hurricane Opal 1995 for an analog.  



#11 jis

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 01:22 PM

Weakening is certainly a possibility, but it appears to be unlikely that it will weaken enough to be an event of no consequence at landfall. So one can spend their time quibbling over whether it is a 1 2 or 3, which of course I won't. There will still be consequential wind and water damage at landfall and beyond.

 

As I was mentioning on an FB discussion, I will be incredibly gratified if CSX does not shut its line down by Wednesday afternoon.



#12 JoeBas

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 02:59 PM

Oh I imagine that they will, out of (say it with me kids) an "Abundance of Caution", but for AMTK actual impacts to the infrastructure should be fairly minimal - the storm should be down to or below Tropical Storm strength long before reaching the east coast, and with its forward speed rainfall impact should be limited and of short duration over there. 


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#13 lordsigma

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 05:44 PM

I switched my auto train to Wednesday instead of Thursday - still a chance of cancellation but seems like I might have a better chance especially if the storm slows down - plus then I’ll know earlier and will have more time to drive down before the real nasty stuff moves in.

Edited by lordsigma, 08 October 2018 - 05:45 PM.


#14 west point

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 06:57 PM

Several factors for any hurricane which has profound effects.

1.  Max wind velocity.  =  severe damage to structures

2.  Extent of diameter of tropical force winds  =  damage to structures

3.. Forward speed  =  How long wind and how much rain at any spot =  Amount of flooding

4.  Amount of moisture in total hurricane   =  Flooding potential



#15 pennyk

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 08:11 PM

It appears that the Silver Star (train 92) between MIA and NYP is "sold out" on Wednesday and Thursday.  I have not found a service alert however.


Amtrak miles: 248,633; Routes: Silver Meteor, Champion, Silver Star, Auto Train, Capitol Limited, Empire Builder, Lakeshore Limited, Adirondack, Vermonter, Cardinal, California Zephyr, Coast Starlight, Texas Eagle, Missouri River Runner, Acela Express, Southwest Chief, Cascades, Crescent, City of New Orleans, Hiawatha Service, Maple Leaf, Keystone Service, NE Regional, Downeaster, Piedmont, Carolinian, Lincoln Service, Autumn Express 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, Empire Service, Sunset Limited, San Joaquin, Capitol Corridor, Pennsylvanian, Illinois Zephyr, Carl Sandburg, Ethan Allen Express, AEM-7 Excursion, Pacific Surfliner, Palmetto.  VIA miles: 4,584; Routes: The Canadian, Ocean; Alaska RR Denali Star: 356 miles


#16 jis

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 09:33 AM

Looks like as of Tuesday morning the plan is to suspend the Star north of JAX and continue to run the Meteor and the Auto Train.

JAX area was just put under a Tornado warning a little while back! Right front quadrant spreads far I suppose.

Edited by jis, 09 October 2018 - 09:35 AM.


#17 fairviewroad

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 11:08 AM

Sunset Limited to remain suspended east of New Orleans out of an abundance of caution.  ;)


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#18 lordsigma

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 12:41 PM

Crossing my fingers that will hold and Auto Train will run tomorrow night.

 

If they're canceling the Star due to its further west run, you'd think they'll also cancel Crescent, Piedmont, and Carolinian.


Edited by lordsigma, 09 October 2018 - 12:46 PM.

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#19 RebelRider

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 01:03 PM

92 will operate MIA-JAX only on Wednesday, Oct 10. Train 91 is canceled NYP-JAX on Oct 10. It will operate JAX-MIA on Thursday, Oct 11.

89 is canceled WAS-SAV on Wednesday, Oct 10 and 90 is canceled SAV-WAS on Thursday, Oct 11.

52/53 and 97/98 are scheduled to operate normally.
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#20 lordsigma

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Posted 09 October 2018 - 02:54 PM

Hoping that remains the case tomorrow monring!


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