Jump to content




Help Support AmtrakTrains.com by donating using the link above or becoming a Supporting Member.

Photo

How far in advance to book?


  • Please log in to reply
54 replies to this topic

#41 tricia

tricia

    Conductor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 689 posts
  • Gender:Female
  • Location:Spring Creek, NC

Posted 08 October 2018 - 06:50 AM

To repeat Ryan's question: "How did you determine how many roomettes are available on each train? Amsnag doesn’t show inventory levels."

 

Or did you mean "number of days on which low-bucket roomettes are available" instead of, for example,  "5.  The total quantity of low bucket Roomettes available ...." ?

 

And I'm still curious about whether you noticed any different patterns of availability for different trains. 


Edited by tricia, 08 October 2018 - 06:52 AM.

  • cpotisch likes this

#42 niemi24s

niemi24s

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,859 posts

Posted 08 October 2018 - 02:41 PM

I didn't determine how many Roomettes were available on each train.  But I can now see how my wording was simply awful and your "number of days on which low-bucket roomettes are available" is spot on.  Thanks for that.  Sometimes my tongue gets wrapped around my eye tooth and I can't see what I'm saying.   :wacko:  It'll take me a few hours to go back and edit the text and image.

 

Although the wording will change, the numbers will remain the same.

 

And yes, I did notice different patterns of availability for different trains:

 

•  Some reached a maximum at the 4th/5th month and then fell to zero at month 6 or 7.

•  Some reached a maximum at the 4th/5th month and then fell slightly and rose to a higher level by the 11th month

•  A few increased gradually throughout the period and reached their maximas at the 11th month.

•  Still others seemed to have no discernible pattern at all.

 

It's quite difficult for me to try to adequately describe in words the patterns seen in all 32 numbered trains.  Two better ways to display it all would be by posting all the raw data in tabular form (all 352 numbers including their sums) or do the same by plotting them graphically.  But let me tidy up my wording first and then see what I can do about the others.   


Edited by niemi24s, 08 October 2018 - 06:57 PM.

  • tricia, daybeers and cpotisch like this

#43 Ryan

Ryan

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,473 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:OTN
  • Interests:a fact checker combined with a ferret

Posted 08 October 2018 - 03:40 PM

Thanks, that makes far more sense.

I'd love for you to share you data sets some day.
Posted Image

Disclaimer: Any images or links you see in my post may in fact be invasive advertising or even fraudulent phishing attacks silently injected into my post by our spam based hosting service. If anything looks suspicious or inappropriate or you have any doubt whatsoever then do not click any links (particularly those appearing in green and/or with a double underline) or interact with the spam in any way. You may also want to consider using ad-blocking plugins such as Adblock Plus and/or Ghostery)to help reduce the number and severity of advertising scams directed at you.

#44 niemi24s

niemi24s

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,859 posts

Posted 08 October 2018 - 04:45 PM

Thanks, that makes far more sense.

I'd love for you to share you data sets some day.

Yeah, I really got all wrapped around the axle with my wording of all this stuff.  Thanks for questioning what I wrote and prompting the edits.  Hope it all makes better sense now.

 

Gave the nonverbal presentation of this data a lot of thought and have initially concluded that any graphic portrayal would be a mess - what with a line for each of the 32 trains.  And some routes have significantly different data between the travel directions and that would get masked if the data for each direction was combined.

 

So that leaves the tabular form of the raw data, and that'll take the rest of the evening for my able assistants (Sons) to make up a  spread sheet with 32 rows and 11 columns.  That's because at present it's all nothing more than a hand-scribed single sheet of lined notebook paper.  Give me some time on this.

 

Thanks again! 

 

Edit:  Well, it didn't take as long as I thought it would.  Here's all the tidied up raw data - have fun with it.

 

Edit #2:  New chart in place of the previous one, below, with an added column on the right showing availability for each of the 32 trains.  This allows better recognition of route direction differences - some of which seem quite large.

 

Edit #3:  Replaced the hand-scribed chart with a spreadsheet/FastStone version.  Data is unchanged.

 

Attached File  LB Roomette DataC.jpg   186.38KB   4 downloads


Edited by niemi24s, 12 October 2018 - 11:44 AM.

  • daybeers and cpotisch like this

#45 niemi24s

niemi24s

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,859 posts

Posted 08 October 2018 - 10:55 PM

Q:  If you lived in CHI and wanted to take the SWC to LAX in a Roomette next August, would you start looking now or wait until March - 5 months before the trip?  

 

<no need to reply>



#46 cpotisch

cpotisch

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,690 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Brooklyn, NY
  • Interests:Planes, Trains, Cooking, Politics

Posted 08 October 2018 - 11:18 PM

Q:  If you lived in CHI and wanted to take the SWC to LAX in a Roomette next August, would you start looking now or wait until March - 5 months before the trip?  

 

<no need to reply>

I would take a look now, but if I don't see any low bucket fares this far out, I wouldn't freak out because they'll likely show up more as it got closer in.


Routes Traveled: Silver Meteor, Silver Star, CrescentLake Shore LimitedCalifornia Zephyr, Sunset Limited, Texas EagleEthan Allen Express, Empire Service, Maple Leaf, AdirondackAcela Express, Northeast RegionalKeystone Service, Downeaster w/ Great Dome
 
Wish List: Auto Train, Cardinal, CONO, Empire Builder, Southwest Chief, Crescent (overnight), Adirondack w/ Great Dome


#47 niemi24s

niemi24s

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,859 posts

Posted 10 October 2018 - 02:21 PM

Sometimes a table with 352 numbers can be a bit intimidating but a graph of it all may less so:

 

Attached File  LB Roomette 2D GraphA.jpg   160.86KB   6 downloads

 

Maybe.


Edited by niemi24s, 10 October 2018 - 04:39 PM.


#48 Ronbo

Ronbo

    Lead Service Attendant

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 237 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Bainbridge Island WA

Posted 10 October 2018 - 03:44 PM

Sometimes a table with 352 numbers can be a bit intimidating but a graph of it all may less so:
 
[attachment=10636:LB Roomette 2D GraphA.jpg
 
Maybe.

From a relatively simple question from the original poster, I hope she got her answer, to this ❗️Amazingly ridiculous ❗️🤣
However, quite artistic, like looking at a Jackson Pollack painting ‼️

Edited by Ronbo, 10 October 2018 - 03:46 PM.

  • daybeers likes this

#49 Ryan

Ryan

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,473 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:OTN
  • Interests:a fact checker combined with a ferret

Posted 10 October 2018 - 04:10 PM

Excellent graph.

Despite a handful of outliers, there's a pretty clear pattern of lots of low bucket availability in the 4-5 month window.

It would be interesting to repeat the analysis over time to determine if the abundance of low bucket rooms is because of the 4-5 month window, or because that's where Jan/Feb (a.k.a low travel season) falls. My money is on the latter.
  • tricia and daybeers like this
Posted Image

Disclaimer: Any images or links you see in my post may in fact be invasive advertising or even fraudulent phishing attacks silently injected into my post by our spam based hosting service. If anything looks suspicious or inappropriate or you have any doubt whatsoever then do not click any links (particularly those appearing in green and/or with a double underline) or interact with the spam in any way. You may also want to consider using ad-blocking plugins such as Adblock Plus and/or Ghostery)to help reduce the number and severity of advertising scams directed at you.

#50 niemi24s

niemi24s

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,859 posts

Posted 10 October 2018 - 04:35 PM

From a relatively simple question from the original poster, I hope she got her answer, to this ❗️Amazingly ridiculous ❗️🤣

However, quite artistic, like looking at a Jackson Pollack painting ‼️

 

If you think that one was amazingly ridiculous, howzabout this one!

 

Attached File  LB Roomette 3D GraphA.jpg   142.42KB   0 downloads

 

This 3-D version shows which 12 trains had zero days of availability the last 5 or 6 months by spreading out the data in the z-axis.


Edited by niemi24s, 12 October 2018 - 11:41 AM.

  • daybeers and Pere Flyer like this

#51 Palmland

Palmland

    Conductor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 560 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Carolinas
  • Interests:Transportation, Model RR, Exploring the U.S., First class rail travel

Posted 10 October 2018 - 04:47 PM

Thanks, that makes far more sense.
I'd love for you to share you data sets some day.

Yeah, I really got all wrapped around the axle with my wording of all this stuff.  Thanks for questioning what I wrote and prompting the edits.  Hope it all makes better sense now.
 
Gave the nonverbal presentation of this data a lot of thought and have initially concluded that any graphic portrayal would be a mess - what with a line for each of the 32 trains.  And some routes have significantly different data between the travel directions and that would get masked if the data for each direction was combined.
 
So that leaves the tabular form of the raw data, and that'll take the rest of the evening for my able assistants (Sons) to make up a  spread sheet with 32 rows and 11 columns.  That's because at present it's all nothing more than a hand-scribed single sheet of lined notebook paper.  Give me some time on this.
 
Thanks again! 
 
Edit:  Well, it didn't take as long as I thought it would.  Here's all the tidied up raw data - have fun with it.
 
Edit #2:  New chart in place of the previous one, below, with an added column on the right showing availability for each of the 32 trains.  This allows better recognition of route direction differences - some of which seem quite large.
 
Edit #3:  Replaced the hand-scribed chart with a spreadsheet/FastStone version.  Data is unchanged.
 
attachicon.gifLB Roomette DataC.jpg

An excellent chart. But it begs the question. Is the most availability in January and February because it’s in the middle of winter? Or, is it because it’s 3-4 months out from October. To answer that, I’d love to see this redone in a couple months.

#52 cpotisch

cpotisch

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,690 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Brooklyn, NY
  • Interests:Planes, Trains, Cooking, Politics

Posted 10 October 2018 - 05:51 PM

 

From a relatively simple question from the original poster, I hope she got her answer, to this ❗️Amazingly ridiculous ❗️

However, quite artistic, like looking at a Jackson Pollack painting ‼️

 

If you think that one was amazingly ridiculous, howzabout this one!

 

attachicon.gifLB Roomette 3D GraphA.jpg

 

This 3-D version shows which 12 trains had zero days of availability the last 5 or 6 months by spreading out the data in the z-axis.

I've been staring at that thing for maybe five minutes now and I can not decipher it. Is that supposed to be even theoretically legible?


Routes Traveled: Silver Meteor, Silver Star, CrescentLake Shore LimitedCalifornia Zephyr, Sunset Limited, Texas EagleEthan Allen Express, Empire Service, Maple Leaf, AdirondackAcela Express, Northeast RegionalKeystone Service, Downeaster w/ Great Dome
 
Wish List: Auto Train, Cardinal, CONO, Empire Builder, Southwest Chief, Crescent (overnight), Adirondack w/ Great Dome


#53 niemi24s

niemi24s

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,859 posts

Posted 10 October 2018 - 06:33 PM

. . . I’d love to see this redone in a couple months.

 

You have my permission.   :P


  • tricia and daybeers like this

#54 niemi24s

niemi24s

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,859 posts

Posted 10 October 2018 - 06:52 PM

Excellent graph.

Despite a handful of outliers, there's a pretty clear pattern of lots of low bucket availability in the 4-5 month window.

It would be interesting to repeat the analysis over time to determine if the abundance of low bucket rooms is because of the 4-5 month window, or because that's where Jan/Feb (a.k.a low travel season) falls. My money is on the latter.

Thanks.  That same pattern of lots of low buckets available in 4-5 months hence was also apparent in the bar graph in Post #32.  But I don't care for term "window" because it kind of implies there are no low buckets available in the other 9 months.  All we'd need is 11 volunteers to repeat this at 1 month intervals to gather a years worth of data.  

 

Who'll be the first to sign up?

 

 



#55 niemi24s

niemi24s

    Engineer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,859 posts

Posted 11 October 2018 - 12:43 PM

I've been staring at that thing for maybe five minutes now and I can not decipher it. Is that supposed to be even theoretically legible?

Maybe this will help:

 

•  Look at the two dimensional (2-D) chart in Post #47, then...

•  Pretend you arrange those 32 colored lines so they're piled up one behind the other (in numerical order, away from you) with a tiny bit of space between them.

•  Viewed in two dimensions you can't tell any difference until you...

•  Pretend you change your viewing angle from straight on at the front to a viewing angle that's down and to the left...

•  So the third dimension of the 3-D chart blossoms into view revealing those 32 lines spread out along the new z-axis in all their glory and splendour.

 

Some familiarity with solid geometry will help here.


Edited by niemi24s, 11 October 2018 - 04:26 PM.

  • Pere Flyer likes this




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users